Do you think a referendum on abortion would be passed?(not how you'd vote)

freshpopcorn

During the lead up to the general election I heard some talk about the 8th amendment being repealed and it being an important election issue. Outside of a few candidates and people online. I didn't really find people gave much thought when they were voting. A good few pro life candidates who want to keep the 8th amendment were elected.
If we were to have a referendum on the issue I'm not sure it would be passed. It would depend on what we would be voting on. Would it only be for cases of rape/incest or would it be abortion on demand.
If it was for cases of rape/incest. Would this be hard to prove. So would we essential be voting for abortion on demand.
Going on the marriage referendum a good few constituencies were close enough on voting No. So I think these areas would probably vote No. I could also see another few areas voting No also. I think areas around Dublin would probably vote Yes but it wouldn't be around the 70%. So these areas might pull up the national average.
I know a good few people who'd happily voted Yes last May but they wouldn't support abortion. These would be young/old people and from different areas.
I also know people who'd support abortion
What's After Hours opinion?

RayM

freshpopcorn wrote: »

If it was for cases of rape/incest. Would this be hard to prove. So would we essential be voting for abortion on demand.

I have no respect for the argument that abortion should be legal in the case of rape or incest. You either believe a woman should have autonomy over her own body or you don't. If a person thinks abortion is acceptable in the case of rape or incest, then it logically follows that they think abortion is actually acceptable. Those people are massive hypocrites and their biggest problem is with women, not with abortion.

MilesMorales1

*ponders* yes, probably. Can't of think why anyone would vote against it these days.

MadDog76

Before the Gay Marriage referendum I'd have said maybe, but probably not ........ now I think anything's possible!

eviltwin

Depends on how it's phrased. Certain cases like fatal abnormalities will pass no problem, abortion on demand I don't know.

Little CuChulainn

I don't think a repeal would pass because it would leave too much uncertainty. An amendment to narrow the applicability of it would probably pass.

questionmark?

eviltwin wrote: »

Depends on how it's phrased. Certain cases like fatal abnormalities will pass no problem, abortion on demand I don't know.

I think your right there.

Abortion on demand may struggle to get over the line. Might just about but I wouldn't be betting my house on it.

Little CuChulainn

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

*ponders* yes, probably. Can't of think why anyone would vote against it these days.

Doesn't sound like you did much pondering.

cowboyBuilder

Not in Ireland for the next 20 years or so .

We still have the anti-women brigade getting up on their high horses ..
don´t they realise that even if abortion is legal, they are still free never to have one if they don't wish ?

Little CuChulainn

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

Not in Ireland for the next 20 years or so .

We still have the anti-women brigade getting up on their high horses ..
don´t they realise that even if abortion is legal, they are still free never to have one if they don't wish ?

I'm always curious how people like yourself can completely ignore the main reason people are against it i.e. the life of a child. Do you think dismissing that argument completely and pretending it's a sexism issue will change people minds about it?

aaakev

I would certainly hope it passed anyway so women could have a free choice over their own bodies. Id say it would be close but i think it would pass

RadiationKing

Nope. Abortion is still the bread and butter of the loonies. All they have to do is the usual "they're murdering babies" song and dance and it's all over. The SSM referendum passed very much in spite of their best efforts but abortion is far more contentious.

Nomis21

I think the The 8th amendment should be deleted from the constitution.


One question that is not often discussed...

If abortion on demand is made legal here, will it be legal for women from The North (Or anywhere else in the World) to come here for a termination?

It is a massive industry in the UK.

eviltwin

Nomis21 wrote: »

I think the The 8th amendment should be deleted from the constitution.


One question that is not often discussed...

If abortion on demand is made legal here, will it be legal for women from The North (Or anywhere else in the World) to come here for a termination?

It is a massive industry in the UK.

Can't see why not. It would be the height of hypocrisy to deny access to foreign women seeing how we've relied on other jurisdictions so much to take care of our own

sm213

I think it would be passed if certain restrictions were in place. I personally wouldn't get an abortion but don't see why my choice should be everyones.
Then there's fatal abnormalities where a fetus could not survive outside the womb or would suffer for a few days before dying.
Some people make the hard choice to abort rather than allow the child suffer and also have the added stress of going abroad.
It's hard as it could be abused and used as a form of contraception but it comes back to although I don't agree with it is it fair to stop people who wish to use it that way.
Should it be made legal, yes.
Will it be? Probably not right now unless there is strict regulations attached. Such as rape/incest cases, fatal abnormalities and for everyone else a 12 week gestation max.

MightyMandarin

RayM wrote: »

I have no respect for the argument that abortion should be legal in the case of rape or incest. You either believe a woman should have autonomy over her own body or you don't. If a person thinks abortion is acceptable in the case of rape or incest, then it logically follows that they think abortion is actually acceptable. Those people are massive hypocrites and their biggest problem is with women, not with abortion.

Unfortunately for you, according to the latest comprehensive poll done by Newstalk and RedC, 37% of people are 'massive hypocrites', since arguments in favour of abortion drop in support from 78% to 41% when the limits of rape and incest are removed.

It must also be noted that a majority (56%) of people don't want abortion in any circumstances.

It's also interesting to note that "Differences amongst male and female respondents does not vary widely with the most marked contrast between the sexes being in the instances of significant foetal disability or non-fatal foetal abnormality with 66% of men agreeing that abortion should be an option while only 57% of woman agree with this assertion."

Perhaps this ends the notion that 'it's men holding women back' in this context.

Whether the referendum would pass, really depends on how it's phrased imo.

For Forks Sake

RadiationKing wrote: »

Nope. Abortion is still the bread and butter of the loonies. All they have to do is the usual "they're murdering babies" song and dance and it's all over. The SSM referendum passed very much in spite of their best efforts but abortion is far more contentious.

The SSM referendum campaign will seems like a sunny stroll in the park compared to the sort of sh1te and vitriol that'd be flung around on an abortion referendum.

Malari

eviltwin wrote: »

Depends on how it's phrased. Certain cases like fatal abnormalities will pass no problem, abortion on demand I don't know.

I agree with this. It seems incredible that it wouldn't pass with such an enormous amount of social change in Ireland within the last 20 or 30 years but I think there is still a significant number of people who are quite conservative about abortion. And not just older people.

Little CuChulainn

sm213 wrote: »

Should it be made legal, yes.
Will it be? Probably not right now unless there is strict regulations attached. Such as rape/incest cases, fatal abnormalities and for everyone else a 12 week gestation max.

How would you attach these strict regulations to a repeal though?

somefeen

If it was for legal in all cases I reckon it would be a very close no. AFAIK more pro life candidates got elected than pro choice.

The infuriating thing for me is this. People say they are against abortion because they believe they would be killing a child. But then they say " OK its acceptable though in cases of rape or incest". So its OK to kill a child if they came to be because of rape.

Its either killing a child or its not.
I believe its not and I don't think its right to force someone to have something grow inside them against their will.

The Young Wan

Malari wrote: »

I agree with this. It seems incredible that it wouldn't pass with such an enormous amount of social change in Ireland within the last 20 or 30 years but I think there is still a significant number of people who are quite conservative about abortion. And not just older people.

My friend is early 20s, and probably the most liberal person I know in many ways. But will not enter into a discussion about abortion at all - she is dead against it. We have not come as far as we think we have.

the_barfly1

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

Not in Ireland for the next 20 years or so .

We still have the anti-women brigade getting up on their high horses ..
don´t they realise that even if abortion is legal, they are still free never to have one if they don't wish ?

Anti-women brigade? They're in the minority.
I reckon it'd fail due to the backward catholic bullsh1t that is still so pervasive here amongst the older section of our society . We're a generation away from abortion being legalised here.

I'd like to be proven wrong, though.

MightyMandarin

somefeen wrote: »

If it was for legal in all cases I reckon it would be a very close no. AFAIK more pro life candidates got elected than pro choice.

I don't think a candidate being pro-life/choice made much of a difference to voters, and certainly the ones who were staunch pro-life (Lucinda Creighton and Fidelma Healy-Eames for example) weren't elected because they're idiots (certainly the latter) and not because they're pro-life.

deseil

The Young Wan wrote: »

My friend is early 20s, and probably the most liberal person I know in many ways. But will not enter into a discussion about abortion at all - she is dead against it. We have not come as far as we think we have.

I think we have come far last years referendum showed that but,abortion is just something that will never sit right with some people and thats an opinion they should be allowed to have.

The issue is, that their opinion should have no bearing on anothers personal choice to abort. There is plenty of things people disagree on but I think its a step too far that a state can force an unwanted child on a woman if she personally does not want one.

12Phase

Almost definitely. Things have changed enormously since the 1990s or even 2000s and it's basically a different planet to Ireland in the 1980s.

Amirani

MightyMandarin wrote: »

I don't think a candidate being pro-life/choice made much of a difference to voters, and certainly the ones who were staunch pro-life (Lucinda Creighton and Fidelma Healy-Eames for example) weren't elected because they're idiots (certainly the latter) and not because they're pro-life.

Whatever your thoughts on Lucinda Creighton, and I myself disagree with her on a majority of issues, she's not an idiot.

beach_walker

Little CuChulainn wrote: »

I'm always curious how people like yourself can completely ignore the main reason people are against it i.e. the life of a child. Do you think dismissing that argument completely and pretending it's a sexism issue will change people minds about it?

It's an odd one too as if you like at any pro-life march women are nearly always in the majority (from my experience).

It all depends on what proposed legalisation is to follow. I don't think abortion on demand has a chance. Some very limited legalisation might get the referendum over the line.

Idbatterim

It probably would, a huge amount of our new young liberals will vote for "yes" for anything, funny how so many flew back to vote in the SSM referendum, yet huge amounts of these didnt vote in the GE...

The One Doctor

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

*ponders* yes, probably. Can't of think why anyone would vote against it these days.

I'd vote against it because I'm not a fan of legalising the killing of children, unborn or otherwise.

That said, it really depends on the wording. If the legislation said "you can only terminate a pregnancy in the first 8 to 10 weeks" then I'd vote yes. Otherwise I'd vote no.

mailforkev

the_barfly1 wrote: »

I reckon it'd fail due to the backward catholic bullsh1t that is still so pervasive here amongst the older section of our society.

It's not just older people, our Catholic school system is still feeding all sorts of mumbo jumbo into almost every child to the detriment of rational thought. It takes a long time to shake that off.

I don't think it would pass, and it would be a grim campaign.

Lia_lia

I think it would be passed alright. 10 years ago no, but I think it would do now. I would hope that it would anyway!

py2006

Abortion never really sat well with me. Having said that I haven't given it a huge amount of thought.

What worries me is if we have abortion available freely, without question, will see a huge amount of women aborting and after regretting. Or while not in their right mind or whatever.

Should there me some sort of counselling beforehand?

Perhaps that wouldn't be an issue?

desertcircus

I suspect it would. One thing that the religious-conservative lobby seemed not to realise in the run-up to the SSM referendum was that their conduct in that would influence how they'd be regarded in any future abortion debate. They spent the campaign lying through their teeth and issuing ridiculous warnings about the horrors that would ensue, and when the time comes that they're issuing dire warnings about the perils of abortion, the people they're addressing will remember just how mendacious and dishonest they were. For a significant minority of the population, they've lost all credibility; for another significant minority, they never had any. The most ferocious campaigners against abortion liberalisation will be the most self-destructive.

MightyMandarin

Amirani wrote: »

Whatever your thoughts on Lucinda Creighton, and I myself disagree with her on a majority of issues, she's not an idiot.

I'm afraid I have to disagree with you on this.

I don't think Lucinda is stupid for her beliefs on this issue, but I think that when it comes to politics she has no idea what she is doing. Leaving a prosperous career in FG was one thing (and yes some people might think she was justified for standing up for her beliefs), but to set up her own party with an extremely thin policy platform, and to run 28 candidates of which a grand total of 0 were elected, exposed her as an amateur in politics.

Unlike the Greens who bounced back after getting nobody elected to the Dail in 2011, I don't think we'll see the return of Renua, as she really has no idea what she is doing with her political career at the moment.

sm213

Little CuChulainn wrote: »

How would you attach these strict regulations to a repeal though?

I know you can't as they'd have to get rid of 8th amendment first but those would be the most likely conditions for people voting for it.
I think the vagueness of it is what would stop people voting to repeal as then it's just abortion across the board.
Could you repeal it with conditions attached? I'm not sure how it would work but I think it'll be a no until it's certain that there's boundaries.
From other discussions on the topic a lot of people seem to want it restricted and then they'll vote yes.
However that's just an anecdotal observation.
I realise they have to vote yes to abortion first and then restrictions can be applied but it seems people are scared every woman will be getting abortions left right and centre.

Little CuChulainn

beach_walker wrote: »

It's an odd one too as if you like at any pro-life march women are nearly always in the majority (from my experience).

It all depends on what proposed legalisation is to follow. I don't think abortion on demand has a chance. Some very limited legalisation might get the referendum over the line.

I don't think people would trust politicians enough for that. They'd basically be saying "Repeal this amendment and we promise we will pass legislation straight away to limit abortion."

Little CuChulainn

sm213 wrote: »

I know you can't as they'd have to get rid of 8th amendment first but those would be the most likely conditions for people voting for it.
I think the vagueness of it is what would stop people voting to repeal as then it's just abortion across the board.
Could you repeal it with conditions attached? I'm not sure how it would work but I think it'll be a no until it's certain that there's boundaries.
From other discussions on the topic a lot of people seem to want it restricted and then they'll vote yes.
However that's just an anecdotal observation.
I realise they have to vote yes to abortion first and then restrictions can be applied but it seems people are scared every woman will be getting abortions left right and centre.

You can't repeal with conditions. You'd have to amend it instead.

PressRun

py2006 wrote: »

What worries me is if we have abortion available freely, without question, will see a huge amount of women aborting and after regretting. Or while not in their right mind or whatever.

Those hysterical women just don't know what's good for them! :rolleyes:

beach_walker

Little CuChulainn wrote: »

I don't think people would trust politicians enough for that. They'd basically be saying "Repeal this amendment and we promise we will pass legislation straight away to limit abortion."

Yeah, good point. I mean take the Seanad ref, lots of people while wanting it gone voted down the amendment because of the lack of thought the government had put into what was to replace it. I suppose that will form the "slippery slope" argument which to be fair, when looking at the introduction to other countries looks correct.

Berserker

I would vote 'No' myself but I believe that a referendum on the 8th would be passed with a comfortable majority, 65%-35%. I think that a referendum on "full" abortion would be a far closer affair.

py2006

PressRun wrote: »

Those hysterical women just don't know what's good for them! :rolleyes:

Not sure about hysteria among women but if abortion is passed, should counseling be provided before, during and after the decision process where necessary?

ancapailldorcha

Hmmm... I can say with certainty that it would be a very nasty campaign for the so called "Pro-lifers". If it were to pass, I suspect it would be by a slim majority.

AlexisM

MightyMandarin wrote: »

It must also be noted that a majority (56%) of people don't want abortion in any circumstances.

That's not what the 56% is about. It's not 'under any circumstance' - it's 'should the mother be permitted an abortion under any circumstance that she wants' - i.e. on demand. 41% said yes to this (i.e. 41% agree with abortion on demand) and 56% said no to abortion on demand.

I'm actually surprised at the 41% being so high for on demand - no mention even of time limits - although I'm sure if it was phrased differently, the % would have been lower.

Berserker

py2006 wrote: »

Not sure about hysteria among women but if abortion is passed, should counseling be provided before, during and after the decision process where necessary?

Of course and the procedure itself will be funded by the taxpayer. Another bill for middle class Ireland to pay.

sm213

Little CuChulainn wrote: »

You can't repeal with conditions. You'd have to amend it instead.

So would it not be easier to amend the 8th amendment to make abortion illegal unless you are up to and including 12 weeks gestation and after that only for cases of rape/incest (as it could take longer than that to prove) or fatal abnormalities (which may only get detected by 20 week anomaly scan).
I'm sure you'd have to include a counselling session to ensure you're of sound mind and fully educated on what will happen and possible consequences too.

I think people would go for that.

Although I see above someone mentioned only up to 8 weeks.
There's just no pleasing people.

Can we not just trust that women are not going to go on an abortion rampage?
I don't think it's the easiest choice for anyone whether the pregnancy is wanted or not.

I get some people don't agree with it but can those people just not get abortions? And let the people who do want/require them Do as they see fit?

ancapailldorcha

Berserker wrote: »

Of course and the procedure itself will be funded by the taxpayer. Another bill for middle class Ireland to pay.

Surely cheaper than paying for primary, secondary and probably tertiary education, no?

MightyMandarin

AlexisM wrote: »

Did you make the underlined bit up? It's not in the linked article and it's inconsistent with the male/female split you also quote. If 66% of men and 57% of women agree in cases of foetal abnormality, that probably about 62% across men and women. So if 62% agree in cases of foetal abnormality, how can 56% be against in ALL circumstances?

I didn't make anything up. The last graph shows that 56% of people said 'No' when asked if women should be allowed an abortion in any circumstances.

AlexisM

MightyMandarin wrote: »

I didn't make anything up. The last graph shows that 56% of people said 'No' when asked if women should be allowed an abortion in any circumstances.

That's not what the 56% is about. It's not 'under any circumstance' - it's 'should the mother be permitted an abortion under any circumstance that she wants' - i.e. on demand. 41% said yes to this (i.e. 41% agree with abortion on demand) and 56% said no to abortion on demand.

I'm actually surprised at the 41% being so high for on demand - no mention even of time limits - although I'm sure if it was phrased differently, the % would have been lower.

MightyMandarin

AlexisM wrote: »

That's not what the 56% is about. It's not 'under any circumstance' - it's 'should the mother be permitted an abortion under any circumstance that she wants' - i.e. on demand. 41% said yes to this (i.e. 41% agree with abortion on demand) and 56% said no to abortion on demand.

I'm actually surprised at the 41% being so high for on demand - no mention even of time limits - although I'm sure if it was phrased differently, the % would have been lower.

Ok you added in the last part, but that doesn't change my point that a majority of people don't want abortion on demand.

I'm actually surprised at the 41% for the opposite reason, because given the narrative portrayed by most politicians, the SU, feminists etc. one would be forgiven for thinking that abortion on demand was the popular belief in this country.

beach_walker

sm213 wrote: »

I get some people don't agree with it but can those people just not get abortions? And let the people who do want/require them Do as they see fit?

Do you really not see why? I mean it's fair enough people disagreeing over issues but it's worrying when people can't even understand the other side, even while disagreeing with it.


[I don't want counters/what-ifs to the following, I'm not drawing explicit parallels. I'm just trying to show you were some might be coming from.] Many see it as a moral issue i.e. that it's just wrong. Think of the abolitionists to slavery (particularly in the US). They weren't happy to let states decide on the issue and merely stand by their beliefs by not engaging in the practice. They saw it as a societal wrong.

Like I wouldn't be happy with a referendum tomorrow on introducing the death penalty. I think it's just plain wrong and completely unacceptable no matter the limited circumstances.

I'm sure you have some issues like that. If this referendum has to happen, then it's better for everybody if you at least see where the other side is coming from.

AlexisM

MightyMandarin wrote: »

Ok you added in the last part,

I didn't add anything - you omitted a pretty important part of the question...

MightyMandarin wrote: »

but that doesn't change my point that a majority of people don't want abortion on demand.

That wasn't your point though - you said the poll showed a majority don't want abortion under any circumstances. Whereas it's actually a majority don't want abortion under any circumstance deemed necessary by the mother (i.e. completely unrestricted demand right up to 9 months). That is a massive distinction.

MightyMandarin wrote: »

I'm actually surprised at the 41% for the opposite reason, because given the narrative portrayed by most politicians, the SU, feminists etc. one would be forgiven for thinking that abortion on demand was the popular belief in this country.

There are very few supporters of unrestricted abortion on demand even amongst strongly pro-choice people.