(Not hypothetical anymore) Leicester win the league!

eagle eye

When I read the thread title I just thought about what would be said at the start of the season and I can imagine that a lot of good, intelligent football fans would answer 'pigs will fly'.

It's been great to see, hopefully they can win today and stretch the gap. It ranks up in the top five shocks for sure. In football along with Greece winning the Euros and Red Star winning the European Cup in 90/91.

I think Buster Douglas beating Tyson outranks it though.

Fr Tod Umptious

eagle eye wrote: »

When I read the thread title I just thought about what would be said at the start of the season and I can imagine that a lot of good, intelligent football fans would answer 'pigs will fly'.

It's been great to see, hopefully they can win today and stretch the gap. It ranks up in the top five shocks for sure. In football along with Greece winning the Euros and Red Star winning the European Cup in 90/91.

I think Buster Douglas beating Tyson outranks it though.

It out ranks them all.

Boxing does not count, too much scope for the fix.
"In the fifth your ass goes down".

The best way to look at it is in the way the ESPN article did.
They gave examples of what 5000/1 looked like.
Obama playing cricket for England after he steps down.
Elvin being found alive.

Boskowski

Jayop wrote: »

Meh skill over fitness every day. I'm not saying it wouldn't help but no amount of injections will turn Glen Whelan into Roy Keane. Other sports it can make a difference from a bog standard athlete to a world class one. See swimming and our own gold medal Olympian.

That is true to a certain point namely where they're all fit to PL player standard. If you're not you're done. People think these guys are PL players because they're all great footballers and of course they are. But they're also PL players because they're all like bloody race horses physically. You must not underestimate what one has to bring to the table physically just as a precondition to play PL football. I wouldn't disregard the possibility of doping in professional football at all. I think it is a prime candidate for doping actually.

Alfred Borden

Liverpool 13/14?

https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/716564920377208832

Figsy32

Jayop wrote: »

Football isn't a sport that doping would do a massive amount of good in. Sure the fitness would help but that's only a tiny bit of the story. Skill is probably about ten times more important.

Look at the way Leicster play though. They rely on pressing, an incredible workrate from Okazaki and their midfield and huge power and pace on breaks. Fitness is a massive part of their success.

They're one of the few team that can get away with playing just two midfielders because Kante and Drinkwater each cover the ground of two men.

Vardy isn't a massively skilful player. His success largely comes from his ability to repeatedly make high intensity runs behind defences. He does this throughout the game and this requires huge fitness and leg power.

These sort of drugs main benefit is probably the quicker recovery times they provide. Leicester have a relatively thin squad but have only had to use 18 players this season and none of their best players have faced any significant injuries.

I don't have a clue whether Leicster are doping or not but the benefits would be massive. To say otherwise is ridiculous.

astonaidan

For people saying skill over fitness you are missing a large point, in that if you have a skillful player whos fit, they are a much more devastating player. Look at Ronaldinho once the party lifestyle got to him his skill level couldnt keep up after his fitness took a drop. Fitness is a massive factor in sports

Jayop

The article seems to have been purely based on the word of one disgraced doctor. I'll wait for more evidence before condemning them.

Anyway, bloody brilliant from Leicester today again. Southampton are no mugs and that was a brilliant win. They are going to do this.

machiavellianme

Back on topic...

7 points ahead with 6 games to go now. Surely it's only a matter of time till the title of this thread is changed from "if" to "when"?

Jayop

Really honest post match article from their two boys too. Haven't had the crappy media training all the players at the big clubs get it seems. Had to laugh at Morgan talking about the push for his goal.

mickmackey1

omg they're actually going to win it!! :eek::eek:

Paully D

With Sunderland (A), Everton (H) and Swansea (H) to come, you can comfortably add at least 7 points to their total too.

CSF

Paully D wrote: »

With Sunderland (A), Everton (H) and Swansea (H) to come, you can comfortably add at least 7 points to their total too.

At this stage of the season every 3 points becomes a battle. Unless you're playing Villa. Leicester were unlucky to get a rare Villa performance and drop 2 points.

Harry Palmr

Alfred Borden wrote: »

Liverpool 13/14?

https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/716564920377208832

heh! Not actually comparable, Liverpool never had a 7 point lead, the best was 6 points but having played a game more. In fact on this match day in 2013/14 Man City were a point ahead and had a game in hand.

Leicester City need 4 wins to be certain I think.

Paully D

CSF wrote: »

At this stage of the season every 3 points becomes a battle. Unless you're playing Villa. Leicester were unlucky to get a rare Villa performance and drop 2 points.

I disagree. At this stage of the season, there's quite a few teams already safe and/or with nothing to play for in the league that pack things up. Games against teams such as Swansea, Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom to name some off the top of my head are much easier games at the moment for those going out all guns blazing with something to play for than they are say halfway during the season or early on.

JustTheOne

Rub of the green is helping a lot also.

Fair play.

Dirty Dingus McGee

It's pretty much over now.

It will take a monumental collapse for them not to win it.

Paully D

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

It's pretty much over now.

It will take a monumental collapse for them not to win it.

Lets hope Ranieri doesn't come out with the "I would love it...." :pac:

CSF

Paully D wrote: »

I disagree. At this stage of the season, there's quite a few teams already safe and/or with nothing to play for in the league that pack things up. Games against teams such as Swansea, Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom to name some off the top of my head are much easier games at the moment for those going out all guns blazing with something to play for than they are say halfway during the season or early on.

Not when you're in the title race usually. Everybody puts it up to you. You don't get those benefit of those dead rubbers like you'll see in games like Watford v Bournemouth, Liverpool v West Brom. Everyone will be up for it against Leicester. It will always be difficult.

LeBash

They seem to be scraping by everyone at the moment. Lucky today with the handball but everyone who wins the league gets buckets full of luck.

Jayop

Paully D wrote: »

Lets hope Ranieri doesn't come out with the "I would love it...." :pac:

He's far too cool/dozey for that

Jayop

LeBash wrote: »

They seem to be scraping by everyone at the moment. Lucky today with the handball but everyone who wins the league gets buckets full of luck.

That was never a pen for me if you're talking about the Simpson one. Their goal shouldn't have been given though

Billy86

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

It's pretty much over now.

It will take a monumental collapse for them not to win it.

Wouldn't say that just yet - those last three games (Man Utd, Everton, Chelsea) could be a major roadblock if the lead has whittled down. Not only for them being tough games against teams potentially with a good deal to play for, but Leicester don't really have anyone who has been in that position before and nerves could kick in in a big way.

machiavellianme

CSF wrote: »

Not when you're in the title race usually. Everybody puts it up to you. You don't get those benefit of those dead rubbers like you'll see in games like Watford v Bournemouth, Liverpool v West Brom. Everyone will be up for it against Leicester. It will always be difficult.

That's what Leicester will be looking for. They do better against teams trying to put it to them so they can hit back on the counter.
Plus, they've got Sunderland and Swansea who are so desperate to score themselves, they're fragile at the back as a result. Spurs have no easy run in either mind - it's Arsenal's to loose :pac:

raze_them_all_

Billy86 wrote: »

Wouldn't say that just yet - those last three games (Man Utd, Everton, Chelsea) could be a major roadblock if the lead has whittled down. Not only for them being tough games against teams potentially with a good deal to play for, but Leicester don't really have anyone who has been in that position before and nerves could kick in in a big way.

they need 12 points to win assuming nobody else drops points, spurs have united next in old trafford? might drop 2 there

Billy86

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

they need 12 points to win assuming nobody else drops points, spurs have united next in old trafford? might drop 2 there

Oh completely, I'm just saying I wouldn't consider it done until it's done because of Leicester's last three games and lack of experience being in this position.

Dirty Dingus McGee

Billy86 wrote: »

Wouldn't say that just yet - those last three games (Man Utd, Everton, Chelsea) could be a major roadblock if the lead has whittled down. Not only for them being tough games against teams potentially with a good deal to play for, but Leicester don't really have anyone who has been in that position before and nerves could kick in in a big way.

If those were their next 3 games I'd agree with you as they could drop points there and it would lead to them perhaps losing confidence and dropping more points afterwards.

However those 3 games being the last 3 will mean they may have the league won by them and so those games will be irrelevant.

The fixture planning has worked out quite well for them.

Mr.Nice Guy

I hope they win it but I think they will have a wobble between now and the end.

I remember everyone expected them to beat West Brom at home and yet they dropped points. I expect a few twists yet.

Fr Tod Umptious

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I hope they win it but I think they will have a wobble between now and the end.

I remember everyone expected them to beat West Brom at home and yet they dropped points. I expect a few twists yet.

This wobble has been talked about since before Christmas and we are still waiting for it.

They ate almost finished their "easy" set of games before they face Man Utd, Everton and Chelsea.
In those "easy" set of games they have dropped 2 points and taken 16.

West Brom at home was the only points they dropped.

They are doing everything required of them.

Some though Newcastle under Benetiz would be a problem. It wasn't, others said Palace would stop their slide against them, they didn't, others said a Euro chasing Southampton would cause them to falter, Leicester won.

garra

Leicester's last SIX

Date Gameweek Opponent
10 Apr 13:30 Gameweek 33 Sunderland (A)
17 Apr 13:30 Gameweek 34 West Ham (H)
24 Apr 16:15 Gameweek 35 Swansea (H)
01 May 13:30 Gameweek 36 Man Utd (A)
07 May 15:00 Gameweek 37 Everton (H)
15 May 15:00 Gameweek 38 Chelsea (A)

Of their last 6 opponents, only 2 don't have highly motivating targets, these being everton & chelsea.


Spurs Fixtures

Date Gameweek Opponent
10 Apr 16:00 Gameweek 33 Man Utd (H)
18 Apr 20:00 Gameweek 34 Stoke (A)
25 Apr 20:00 Gameweek 35 West Brom (H)
02 May 20:00 Gameweek 36 Chelsea (A)
07 May 15:00 Gameweek 37 Southampton (H)
15 May 15:00 Gameweek 38 Newcastle (A)

Of Spurs last 6, only 2 teams DO have key targets (United and Newcastle), and one of these may be relegated by then.

Anyway PP are offering €628 cash-out for a bet I have on Leicester, so keep going lads!

Dirty Dingus McGee

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

This wobble has been talked about since before Christmas and we are still waiting for it.

They ate almost finished their "easy" set of games before they face Man Utd, Everton and Chelsea.
In those "easy" set of games they have dropped 2 points and taken 16.

West Brom at home was the only points they dropped.

They are doing everything required of them.

Some though Newcastle under Benetiz would be a problem. It wasn't, others said Palace would stop their slide against them, they didn't, others said a Euro chasing Southampton would cause them to falter, Leicester won.

But those games were troublesome for them it's juts they happen to be edging out results either way.

A slight difference in luck and they could have dropped points in numerous games over the last few weeks.

That's why people keep saying there might be a slip up because it is highly unlikely that teams will go through a season and get the amount of luck Leicester have gotten this season (and lets be honest regardless of how well Leicester are playing they have been lucky throughout this season)

K-9

Harry Palmr wrote: »

heh! Not actually comparable, Liverpool never had a 7 point lead, the best was 6 points but having played a game more. In fact on this match day in 2013/14 Man City were a point ahead and had a game in hand.

Leicester City need 4 wins to be certain I think.

3 wins and a draw will probably do it. Spurs have a couple of tough games too.

K-9

Billy86 wrote: »

Wouldn't say that just yet - those last three games (Man Utd, Everton, Chelsea) could be a major roadblock if the lead has whittled down. Not only for them being tough games against teams potentially with a good deal to play for, but Leicester don't really have anyone who has been in that position before and nerves could kick in in a big way.

They are the games that will suit them as United, Everton and Chelsea will try and dominate possession.

These games at the moment are the ones that will win it for them. Very impressive to grind out these 1-0's with the pressure on. At this rate they might only need a point or 2 from those last 3 games.

SlickRic

It's amazing how simple their tactics are.

Flood the centre of midfield when defending, forcing teams to go wide.
Trust that your giant CBs will deal with the cross.
Work like mad to win the scraps from that clearance.
Get the ball in behind ASAP for Mahrez, Albrighton and/or Vardy to run at.
Anchor it all with the physical freak that is N'Golo Kanté who covers everything.

Pawwed Rig

I think 8 or 9 points will be enough at this stage.

Paully D

I know it's sounds mad, but I can't remember seeing a ball-winner as good as Kante has been this season since Makelele. He has been insane and he never, ever stops running.

Fr Tod Umptious

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

But those games were troublesome for them it's juts they happen to be edging out results either way.

A slight difference in luck and they could have dropped points in numerous games over the last few weeks.

That's why people keep saying there might be a slip up because it is highly unlikely that teams will go through a season and get the amount of luck Leicester have gotten this season (and lets be honest regardless of how well Leicester are playing they have been lucky throughout this season)

True they have had luck while grinding our one nil win after one nil win, but the number of games is getting less and less and they are continuing to extended their lead, so the opportunity to wobble gets less and less as the weeks go on.

They'll be mathematicaly champions and someone will still be telling us "I think they'll wobble".

~Rebel~

To be honest, the only reason theres any doubt about it is the fact that their team's name is Leicester. In terms of actual form, the gap is only increasing. Over the past 5 games they've pulled 5 more points away from Spurs, and 6 more away from Arsenal.

I expect their lead over Spurs to grow by 2 more points over the next 2 or 3 games.

I think Leicester will get 10+ points over the final 6 fixtures - which is a lower PPG than they've been managing so far this year. Puts them on 79 points, and means that Spurs would need to win every single remaining game. I reckon Spurs'll get around 12 or 13 of the 18 points available.

Mr.Nice Guy

It's quite common in sport though that individuals or teams will get shaky as they approach the finishing line so to speak, especially if it's their first time on the big stage. And when you factor in their final three games which look very tricky then you'd still have to be concerned. Even their next game away to Sunderland who are fighting for their lives could be a banana skin. I want them to do it but I wouldn't be making them winners just yet.

K-9

I think somebody researched the "relegation teams fighting for their lives" point before.

Factually it doesn't really matter. The likes of Wigan, Sunderland or ahem Leicester, stand out because they are the anomaly.

Maybe if a team was going on a great run, but it's hard to see it this season. Maybe a la Leicester, this is when that teams takes 15 points out of 18.

Pawwed Rig

Sunderland seem hopeless especially with a Norwich win on Sat. I expect Leicester to get 3 points there. West Ham would seem a tougher match than Everton imo. Also are we giving Chelsea too much credit?

Boskowski

Since everyone mentions what their potential slip up could be I'm going to mention a plus for a change. Last season they got that run that they absolutely needed towards the end. No difference this time only now its for glory. What I'm saying is in a way they've done it before.

LiamoSail

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It's quite common in sport though that individuals or teams will get shaky as they approach the finishing line so to speak, especially if it's their first time on the big stage. .

The same applies though to Spurs and to a lesser extent, Arsenal. It's not as if they're being chased by the likes of Chelsea or City, sides that have experience in title run ins. This is as alien to Spurs as it is Leceister, while Arsenal, although they've been clawing at the heels for years, are hardly known for their bottle in a run in

Shanotheslayer

Can see Leicester as good as having this wrapped up in the next 4 games.

7 points in the next 3.
Tough game v United.
They'll smash us (Everton)
League over last game.

elefant

Paully D wrote: »

I know it's sounds mad, but I can't remember seeing a ball-winner as good as Kante has been this season since Makelele. He has been insane and he never, ever stops running.

It's unbelievable watching him.
Chasing down every ball at full pelt in injury time while everyone around him looks totally knackered.
Any chance of him winning player of the year I wonder?

Shanotheslayer

elefant wrote: »

It's unbelievable watching him.
Chasing down every ball at full pelt in injury time while everyone around him looks totally knackered.
Any chance of him winning player of the year I wonder?

Not a chance.Not based by bookies odds anyway. Mahrez 4/9

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I hope they win it but I think they will have a wobble between now and the end.

I remember everyone expected them to beat West Brom at home and yet they dropped points. I expect a few twists yet.

They've taken 16 of the last 18 points available.
They've conceded two goals in their last six games.

For a more Macro level picture they've taken 30 of the 39 points available post Christmas and conceded just 6 goals in that sample of 13 games. This is money time title winning form with the pressure and focus firmly on them.

They will win the title because their defence is rock solid and has kept them alive as the goals and fluency of play has dried up somewhat.

garra wrote: »

Leicester's last SIX

Date Gameweek Opponent
10 Apr 13:30 Gameweek 33 Sunderland (A)
17 Apr 13:30 Gameweek 34 West Ham (H)
24 Apr 16:15 Gameweek 35 Swansea (H)
01 May 13:30 Gameweek 36 Man Utd (A)
07 May 15:00 Gameweek 37 Everton (H)
15 May 15:00 Gameweek 38 Chelsea (A)

Look at all that lovely beautiful rest and recovery time between fixtures.

LuckyLloyd

K-9 wrote: »

I think somebody researched the "relegation teams fighting for their lives" point before.

Factually it doesn't really matter. The likes of Wigan, Sunderland or ahem Leicester, stand out because they are the anomaly.

Maybe if a team was going on a great run, but it's hard to see it this season. Maybe a la Leicester, this is when that teams takes 15 points out of 18.

Paddy Power conducted an analysis on it across a large sample of data. Teams under relegation threat perform worse than their average expectation over the last six games before relegation is confirmed - i.e. whatever their ppg average is before that point, they will be expected to perform below it the rest of the way. For every Leicester of last season there are a couple of Villas from this season essentially.

inforfun

Over the last 12 months, Leicester picked up 91 points.

cj maxx

Paully D wrote: »

I know it's sounds mad, but I can't remember seeing a ball-winner as good as Kante has been this season since Makelele. He has been insane and he never, ever stops running.

i heard ( on the wireless ) that the joke in Leicester is 70% of the world is covered in water , the other 30% is covered by Kante !

keano_afc

Its all over now. Even if they do drop points, they need Spurs and Arsenal to be flawless from here on in. And as an Arsenal fan, they have notging to worry about from us in that regard.