"You might as well wait until the next recession...

Barely Hedged

MarkAnthony wrote: »

Just becuase someone is well paid it doesn't mean they have any idea of the housing market. Jobs in IT, the medical field and even retail could pay that much, why would they have anything other than a passing knowledge of the housing market?

Furthermore, it seemed to be the previaling attitude here until about a year/18 months ago.

OP Why are you stuck in SE Dublin specifically if you don't mind me asking. Could you move to the NE of Dublin?

People earning that much don't know anything about investments or asset purchases. Don't cod yourself will you.

The prevailing attitude for a small number or regular posters, not posters at large.

quadrifoglio verde

Eugene Norman wrote: »

You're anticipating an increase of 100% before a fall?

Christ no....what I'm saying is that I don't know when the next crash will occur that will see prices fall by the 40 odd % the OP thinks thinks they should/work colleague thinks they should, and in the meantime, none of us know how much properties are going to rise before the next fall

A recession won't necessarily lead to a house price collapse either, if they're not overpriced in the first place
The only way they'll become overpriced is if the demand evaporates completely which as it stands I can't see happening for a good while

Stealthfins

Butters1979 wrote:

This is just another "you should want to live where I want to live, not where you want to live"

Not really

Goat Paddock

Hopefully imo the central bank rules stay in place, they seem to me to be a sensible limit, which will be good in the long term, and result in a less boom and bust, greedy dependence on growth at all costs attitude.

mad_baker

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Christ no....what I'm saying is that I don't know when the next crash will occur that will see prices fall by the 40 odd % the OP thinks thinks they should/work colleague thinks they should, and in the meantime, none of us know how much properties are going to rise before the next fall

A recession won't necessarily lead to a house price collapse either, if they're not overpriced in the first place
The only way they'll become overpriced is if the demand evaporates completely which as it stands I can't see happening for a good while

agree with this , recessions happen more regular than most people think and they are often much shorter in duration than most think ( as short as six months ) , what we had from the peak of early 2007 to the very beginning of 2012 was a borderline depression , not a generational event but a multi generational shock to the economy , a perfect storm of the worst international recession since the thirties which had at its core the banking system , add to the fact we had experienced a twelve year rise in property prices

our fall from early 2007 to early 2012 was much longer and much deeper than is typical of a housing correction - crash , we certainly overshot the top during the bubble ( more so in rural ireland BTW where there was and is no reason for high house prices ) but we also overshot the bottom during the crash , even people who had money were paralysed with fear and would not spend , add in a complete evaporation of credit and we had absolutely screaming buys in dublin

if i had the money or inclination ( i dont live in dublin ) , i would buy in dublin right now , what has changed in the past eight years is the huge increase in the importance of the dublin economy and the huge decrease in the importance of the economy outside dublin ( cork and especially galway city excluded ) , dublin is richer today and has a bigger economy than it did at the peak of early 2007 , this trend will continue , dublin will continue to grow as the phenomenon of rural to urban migration continues ( ireland was way behind the curve in this for decades )

its very possible house prices in dublin go nowhere for two or three years but expecting a return or early 2012 levels is fantasy , if that happens , im not sure even owning a house will save people so whats the point in waiting , rents in dublin are not even that high compared to most european capitals so dont expect that to change

Barely Hedged

mad_baker wrote: »

agree with this , recessions happen more regular than most people think and they are often much shorter in duration than most think ( as short as six months ) , what we had from the peak of early 2007 to the very beginning of 2012 was a borderline depression , not a generational event but a multi generational shock to the economy , a perfect storm of the worst international recession since the thirties which had at its core the banking system , add to the fact we had experienced a twelve year rise in property prices

our fall from early 2007 to early 2012 was much longer and much deeper than is typical of a housing correction - crash , we certainly overshot the top during the bubble ( more so in rural ireland BTW where there was and is no reason for high house prices ) but we also overshot the bottom during the crash , even people who had money were paralysed with fear and would not spend , add in a complete evaporation of credit and we had absolutely screaming buys in dublin

if i had the money or inclination ( i dont live in dublin ) , i would buy in dublin right now , what has changed in the past eight years is the huge increase in the importance of the dublin economy and the huge decrease in the importance of the economy outside dublin ( cork and especially galway city excluded ) , dublin is richer today and has a bigger economy than it did at the peak of early 2007 , this trend will continue , dublin will continue to grow as the phenomenon of rural to urban migration continues ( ireland was way behind the curve in this for decades )

its very possible house prices in dublin go nowhere for two or three years but expecting a return or early 2012 levels is fantasy , if that happens , im not sure even owning a house will save people so whats the point in waiting , rents in dublin are not even that high compared to most european capitals so dont expect that to change

Spot on. A good sequence of logical deduction and, I'd say, a natural conclusion to this thread

mad_baker

Stealthfins wrote: »

This reminds me of the Celtic tiger all over again.
For your own sake don't get caught up buying a huge priced property in the East.
As you go towards your 40's your outlook will change and rather than the city life,you'll be heading west for weekends away and will be thinking how quite peaceful and much easier our way of life is.

The clever single ones with money relocated west,bought a house in the country a good reliable car and found a job within a reasonable radius of home.

There's nothing worse than driving back to Dublin from Dingle,Sligo,Galway,Donegal, Doolin,Ennistymon,Liscannor or Lahinch after a weekend of Fishing,Surf,eating out cliff and shoreline edge walks,nice pubs and restaurants.
No traffic jams or fumes.

im originally from the east ( not dublin ) and live in the west , while i am happy , nothing can prepare you for how wet it is in the west , easily double the rain which falls in dublin , i eventually see myself moving back east when the kids are reared , the weather in galway truly is awful and no amount of culture and art can make up for it

as for those seeking a break from high dublin house prices but who want a job , the obvious choice is limerick city , limerick city houses are 35% cheaper than in galway city , 45% cheaper than in cork city and cheaper than any town within the dublin commuter belt including navan , trim , bray , naas , maynooth , newbridge , weather is slightly less wet than galway , its also big enough that you wont die of boredom

i dont live in limerick but my partner is from there , its dirt cheap for renting or buying

SarahMollie

Stealthfins wrote: »

This reminds me of the Celtic tiger all over again.
For your own sake don't get caught up buying a huge priced property in the East.
As you go towards your 40's your outlook will change and rather than the city life,you'll be heading west for weekends away and will be thinking how quite peaceful and much easier our way of life is.

The clever single ones with money relocated west,bought a house in the country a good reliable car and found a job within a reasonable radius of home.

There's nothing worse than driving back to Dublin from Dingle,Sligo,Galway,Donegal, Doolin,Ennistymon,Liscannor or Lahinch after a weekend of Fishing,Surf,eating out cliff and shoreline edge walks,nice pubs and restaurants.
No traffic jams or fumes.

I'm happy for you that the lifestyle in the west suits you and you find it fulfilling, but your assumption that everyone wants or should want the same is nonsense.

I very much like going out west for a week or two in the summer, but thats enough for me.

Would I give up my home in South County Dublin full time, to spend miserable cold winters in the wilds of Connamara - not a hope.

As much as you like to be able to do out doorsey things - I like the urban equivalent, like art house cinema, new bars/restaurants opening every week, museums etc, and being able to go out for a few drinks and simply pop on the Luas to get home. I also like having a good job that pays well. I wouldnt be able to do the work I do now if I was based in Lahinch for example.

m5ex9oqjawdg2i

Stealthfins wrote: »

This reminds me of the Celtic tiger all over again.
For your own sake don't get caught up buying a huge priced property in the East.
As you go towards your 40's your outlook will change and rather than the city life,you'll be heading west for weekends away and will be thinking how quite peaceful and much easier our way of life is.

The clever single ones with money relocated west,bought a house in the country a good reliable car and found a job within a reasonable radius of home.

There's nothing worse than driving back to Dublin from Dingle,Sligo,Galway,Donegal, Doolin,Ennistymon,Liscannor or Lahinch after a weekend of Fishing,Surf,eating out cliff and shoreline edge walks,nice pubs and restaurants.
No traffic jams or fumes.

This is an incredibly condisending post. Especially that part in bold. I wouldn't think that investing in property in the west to be clever or unclever.

One of the worst traffic jams I was ever in was in Dingle.

However lovely these places can be at times, the city can offer a lot more in terms of choice and emenities. Then there's the jobs. Many people working in Dublin can only work in Dublin due to their line of work.