Seanad Election 2016

An Ciarraioch

Adrian Kavanagh has an extensive list of candidates, so won't repeat here except to make general points. Labour's names have been well documented, but it says volumes about their local decimation that they've only put four names forward (Bacik's officially an independent). The usual array of defeated TDs abound, with Jerry Buttimer, Colm Keaveney and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn among the most prominent. The smaller parties have little prospect of success, but Renua, the Soc Dems, AAA-PBP and the Greens are all standing candidates both to build local awareness and canvass for the support of independents.

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/12/22/elections-to-25th-seanad-2016-declared-candidates/

Brussels Sprout

I have an undergrad from an IT but a Masters from UCC.

Can I vote for the NUI panel and if so how do I register (or is it too late)?

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I have an undergrad from an IT but a Masters from UCC.

Can I vote for the NUI panel and if so how do I register (or is it too late)?

In TCD I had to tick a box before commencements. Started getting campaign literature a couple of weeks ago. Was good to know that while Norris is too ill to work as a lecturer it's not as taxing to be a senator.

TheChizler

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I have an undergrad from an IT but a Masters from UCC.

Can I vote for the NUI panel and if so how do I register (or is it too late)?

Should have registered by February 26th, as I found out yesterday. I had assumed it was automatic.

PhoenixParker

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I have an undergrad from an IT but a Masters from UCC.

Can I vote for the NUI panel and if so how do I register (or is it too late)?

Print this out, fill it in, sign it and post it.

http://www.nui.ie/elections/docs/GradUpdateENG.pdf

As TheChizler said you're too late for this round of elections but

1) Let's face it, if you don't do it now, you'll probably end up in the same situation next time round.
2) It's very likely there'll be another election within the next 12 months, so the sooner you can get yourself on the register, the better.

glacial_pace71

Leaving aside the 2 x 3 university panel seats there's some minor drama in the 5 'vocational panel' elections. The electorate (outgoing senators, incoming TDs and sitting councillors) has just been published:

http://www.irisoifigiuil.ie/currentissues/IR010416.pdf

As expected the main political parties moved swiftly to replace councillors who were elected TDs, i.e. to maximise their overall share of the electorate, which ends up at a mere 1,155. (The sight of 4 Healy-Raes is amusing: they've nearly as much as or more votes than the Workers Party or the Social Democrats). I gather that the Greens have 14 votes: too little to do a deal with another party, too many to be ignored completely.

Given the names and numbers, and with all the joy of election night in the USSR, we can see that Labour are only guaranteed a seat on the two 11-seat panels (Agriculture, Labour). Similarly, SF are unlikely to secure a second seat on these panels.

Taking a superficial glance at the list and grouping the 'Independent' councillors by 'gene pool' (e.g. FF, FG, Labour) isn't wise, as many have a strong animosity towards their erstwhile colleagues. On the other hand, some would still be sympathetic to particular defeated TDs or outgoing senator. So expect to see few/no independent senators elected outside the 6 university seats. The likes of David Begg or Michael McDowell could well get elected but the overall outcome will still be predictable to perhaps 39-40 of the 43 seats.

blackwhite

Received my NUI ballot recently, it's a sad reflection on politics today that at first glance the only names that jumped out at me were all for negative reasons.

Should I vote for the repressive God-botherer, the former pal of Bertie who's standing on a platform of obtaining relief from his personal multi-million euro debts, or the career trade unionist who has now moved on to a new career of serving on as many quangoes as possible? (And of course, McD!)


On closer inspections there's a few decent candidates there (although it's a pity Crown has decided not to seek re-election), but it's depressing that the most high profile ones are the least impressive

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Boulevardier

In the university panels, there seem to be a huge number of nice, worthy and well-meaning, but little-known, candidates with little to choose between them.

glacial_pace71

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

A minimum number need to be elected from among each sub-list of candidates nominated, i.e. from those nominated by Oireachtas members and those nominated by the list of vocational bodies. The number varies from panel to panel (as the number of seats ranges from 5 to 11) but in practice it doesn't mean anything - just a spin of a rickety wheel; the politicians have almost all the nominations sewn up in one way or another, e.g. Tom Brabazon is notionally contesting the election as the Conradh na Gaeilge nominee but he's a plain vanilla councillor who will take the party whip; Liam Crowley, notionally the Pharmaceutical Society of Ireland's man but John O'Donoghue's former director of elections in Kerry South for FF. Look through the list of pigs and men but you won't find much difference between the 'inside' and 'outside' lists.

CramCycle

Boulevardier wrote: »

In the university panels, there seem to be a huge number of nice, worthy and well-meaning, but little-known, candidates with little to choose between them.

True, and that's probably why many of the more negative ones get in. In a odd turn about of not voting for who I would like to see get it, as there are seemingly a plethora of well meaning candidates, it looks like I will be solely aiming to fill them in at the top just so I can put the people I never want to see sit in the Senate again at the very bottom.

This is the first time my ballot paper has reached me despite having a correct address registered. I was surprised to see they were sent out by registered post as well, which means I am confused as to why i never received them before.

An Ciarraioch

Count begins today, can be viewed on www.seanadcount.ie

ironcage

arrgghh is it too late to post vote???

CramCycle

ironcage wrote: »

arrgghh is it too late to post vote???

No but it might not get taken. Has to be in the office by 11am tomorrow. If you get it in the post now it might make it.

ironcage

thanks

L1011

First count and first seat - SF on the Cultural panel with about 1.8 quotas. I didn't think they had the electorate for that? Or was there some deal done?

An Ciarraioch

L1011 wrote: »

First count and first seat - SF on the Cultural panel with about 1.8 quotas. I didn't think they had the electorate for that? Or was there some deal done?

You forget they've 150 councillors now, so should win one seat on all panels. Also, he was SF's only Agricultural candidate, whereas FG and FF are both running five, at least.

glacial_pace71

The quota was 187 votes; Warfield got 200, i.e. just over a quota. Impressive but ... he is related to the Wolfe Tones' Warfield chap, and he is openly gay - not easy for any twentysomething to do given the amount of trolling experienced by LGB candidates, but an electoral plus in other ways. He's also had a stint at the South Dublin Mayor's job, in which - like many of the more careerist SF types - he didn't rock any boats, though managed plenty of good rhetoric.

If this trend holds then SF are going to have a very large Seanad contingent. I would only have regarded them as being in contention for the 4th or 5th seat.

I think there are a few red-faced councillors around the country, scratching their heads and wondering "did I put that vote in the inner or outer envelope? Or did I put the witness statement inside the ballot envelope along with the ballot?" For there to be 17 spoiled votes it'd suggest that a local authority somewhere misinformed the candidates of how to complete the process. Or perhaps there were 17 genuine spoils. (We'll hear further detail as to how the returning officer classified these votes but they're a large enough amount to affect the quota by enough to determine the last seat on at least three of the panels).

L1011

glacial_pace71 wrote: »

The quota was 187 votes; Warfield got 200, i.e. just over a quota
.

I don't know how I managed to see the first few digits of the valid poll (112) as the quota earlier. You're correct, he got a bit over not the a lot over I said.

glacial_pace71

L1011 wrote: »

I don't know how I managed to see the first few digits of the valid poll (112) as the quota earlier. You're correct, he got a bit over not the a lot over I said.

Yeah, it's messy to follow: they multiply the votes by 1,000 and so it becomes a bit difficult to estimate the 'real' number of votes each candidate received. (Further, some media outlets reported it as being the results of the 'agricultural' rather than 'cultural' panel, i.e. you could be expecting to see a quota of 90-110 for the former over the latter).

The 1,000 factor does allow for fractions of votes though, and this has already decided the order of elimination in a few counts.
http://www.seanadcount.ie/sc/seanadcount.nsf/0bddb7722ed754f88025730d003dac51/4e73ac12e84ea3078025730e005baf47?OpenDocument

Looks like that Waterford chap, Cllr Joe Conway, is picking up more transfers than expected. Does anyone know anything about him? I saw that he was endorsed by John Halligan but that wouldn't necessarily make him an ex-WP type, e.g. he could be part of the wider independent alliance.

L1011

Conway is still picking up bits and pieces and from parties you wouldn't expect.

An Ciarraioch

L1011 wrote: »

Conway is still picking up bits and pieces and from parties you wouldn't expect.

Augurs well for the SD, Greens and AAA candidates on their respective panels, though it seems Conway is ex-FF, which may leave him higher than most Indo/small party contenders. Looking 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Ind, 1 SF here, barring something extraordinary.

An Ciarraioch

Conway now in trouble - FG and FF vote management set to give them 2 seats each.

An Ciarraioch

Swanick (FF) poised to take seat two, just below quota now.

glacial_pace71

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Conway now in trouble - FG and FF vote management set to give them 2 seats each.

True but they're down to 10th or 11th preferences in some cases, e.g. it's possible for some votes to leak or be non-transferable.

Byrne (FF, Wexford) is set to be eliminated next. Of his 97 votes almost half are lower preference transfers. Can't see anything much breaking to Conway but if he got 4 or 5 it would push him into the 160s. Swanick doesn't need anything at this stage but Clifford-Lee (only 104 votes) would want an extremely strong transfer rate to ensure she's not reliant upon the elimination of the FG candidates to overtake Conway.

The three FG candidates (D'Arcy 104, McFadden 123, O'Donnell 140) have exactly two quotas between them, so should manage two candidates to reach 175-180 each, allowing for some non-transferables or leakage to FF and Conway.

Still looks like 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF at the end of the day, but it could mean we're in for a few shocks/surprise packages on the big 11-seater panels (Agriculture, Labour).

An Ciarraioch

glacial_pace71 wrote: »

True but they're down to 10th or 11th preferences in some cases, e.g. it's possible for some votes to leak or be non-transferable.

Byrne (FF, Wexford) is set to be eliminated next. Of his 97 votes almost half are lower preference transfers. Can't see anything much breaking to Conway but if he got 4 or 5 it would push him into the 160s. Swanick doesn't need anything at this stage but Clifford-Lee (only 104 votes) would want an extremely strong transfer rate to ensure she's not reliant upon the elimination of the FG candidates to overtake Conway.

The three FG candidates (D'Arcy 104, McFadden 123, O'Donnell 140) have exactly two quotas between them, so should manage two candidates to reach 175-180 each, allowing for some non-transferables or leakage to FF and Conway.

Still looks like 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF at the end of the day, but it could mean we're in for a few shocks/surprise packages on the big 11-seater panels (Agriculture, Labour).

And that's how it finished, with Swanick and Clifford-Lee (FF), joined by O'Donnell and McFadden (FG).

In the Agricultural Panel, SF vote management again proves impeccable, with Rose Conway-Walsh and Trevor O'Clochartaigh first elected. The big surprise is the Independent Victor Boyhan, only just shy of the quota. The Soc Dems Jennifer Whitmore and the Greens Grace O'Sullivan both seem too far off the quota, with no transfers likely apart from each other, which gives O'Sullivan a slight chance.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

An Ciarraioch

Fred Swanson wrote: »

Has Paudie Coffey got a seat?

He's running on the Admin Panel, which counts later. In the NUI vote, Ronan Mullen and Michael McDowell are romping to the first two seats.

An Ciarraioch

Whitmore eliminated - by all logic, her transfers should boost the Greens, so should prove interesting!

An Ciarraioch

Turns out they were the last inside panel candidates, so O'Sullivan is elected.

CramCycle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

He's running on the Admin Panel, which counts later. In the NUI vote, Ronan Mullen and Michael McDowell are romping to the first two seats.

Sad times, must pull the finger out the next time and launch a targeted sign up and stop Mullen campaign.

An Ciarraioch

CramCycle wrote: »

Sad times, must pull the finger out the next time and launch a targeted sign up and stop Mullen campaign.

The problem was in fact that too many liberals split the progressive vote!

CramCycle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The problem was in fact that too many liberals split the progressive vote!

Damned liberals, I looked up the names as best as I could. The campaigns of all of them were woeful, even a basic campaign should have lifted any of them into transfer territory.

The only one I came across with a mild attempt at PR was the former USI officer.

I tried to rank them in reverse, from worst to least worst option. List went:
30. Ronan Mullen
29. - 10. Random as I could not find enough about them.
9. - 2. Order in line with who sounded more level headed
1. The former USI officer as there was a slim chance more people knew her and voted for her.

An Ciarraioch

CramCycle wrote: »

Damned liberals, I looked up the names as best as I could. The campaigns of all of them were woeful, even a basic campaign should have lifted any of them into transfer territory.

The only one I came across with a mild attempt at PR was the former USI officer.

I tried to rank them in reverse, from worst to least worst option. List went:
30. Ronan Mullen
29. - 10. Random as I could not find enough about them.
9. - 2. Order in line with who sounded more level headed
1. The former USI officer as there was a slim chance more people knew her and voted for her.

Hopefully Lynn Ruane takes a Trinity seat - not enough people from her background can afford third-level, let alone become SU President.

L1011

Second panel finished. Seems the Greens get one sort of by default due to the inside/outside rule - which I hadn't heard of until last week and I've only been vaguely involved in Irish politics for 11 years!

An Ciarraioch

L1011 wrote: »

Second panel finished. Seems the Greens get one sort of by default due to the inside/outside rule - which I hadn't heard of until last week and I've only been vaguely involved in Irish politics for 11 years!

Yes, seems that the Greens and SDs were last candidates standing on the inside panel, so the elimination of one elected the other. Also the first time an Independent has won a seat on a vocational panel.

Standings after 2 panels (16 seats):

FF 5
FG 5
SF 3
Green 1
Labour 1
Independent 1

An Ciarraioch

Norris and Bacik similarly home and hosed in Trinity - impossible to call final seat:

https://mobile.twitter.com/roscatha/status/725021989296037888/photo/1

An Ciarraioch

Máire Devine (SF) first elected on Labour Panel - their other candidate, Paul Gavan will be elected through her 5,000 surplus. Cian Prendiville (AAA-PBP) polling surprisingly well on 52,000. Buttimer, Craughwell and Nash should all be elected here.

glacial_pace71

Looks like Frances Black will get elected, which is great to see such an original voice (and mind) getting this opportunity. Alas would this allow for an appropriate re-recording of "All the lies you [politicans] told me", or perhaps "On Grafton Street" becomes "On Kildare Street". Worse, instead of a duet with Kieran Goss there'll now be duets with Shane Ross?

Great though to see so many independents getting elected, though it increases the prospects of the incoming Taoiseach's 11 nominees being FG/FF party loyalists rather than any diverse range of interests.

An Ciarraioch

University panels both now complete - Alice Higgins and Lynn Ruane take final seats.

Geuze

I can't understand the dislike towards Ronan Mullen.

Or to be specific, I can't understand why people are surprised he did well.

Anybody I asked told me that they voted for him.


I guess one reason is that Twitter is populated by a vocal minority, who get surprised when the silent majority votes in a different way than they expect.

oscarBravo

Geuze wrote: »

I can't understand the dislike towards Ronan Mullen.

I'm genuinely curious: is that because you don't know anything about him? Because that's literally the only reason I can think of for not understanding why people dislike him.

L1011

Geuze wrote: »

I guess one reason is that Twitter is populated by a vocal minority, who get surprised when the silent majority votes in a different way than they expect.

Mullen made similar comments when predicting the SSM referendum would fail heavily. It didn't. There is no "silent majority" in Ireland.

I don't know one NUI graduate who gave him a preference and I live in a town full of them. However, prior to the 1990s most graduates churned out of that institution would be very much of a mind to vote for him

Geuze

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm genuinely curious: is that because you don't know anything about him? Because that's literally the only reason I can think of for not understanding why people dislike him.

Statement 1 = People dislike him.

Statement 2 = He got the most first prefs, over 7000, approx 20% of first prefs.

It is difficult to reconcile these two statements.

I spoke to just 4 people, and they all voted for him.

oscarBravo

Geuze wrote: »

Statement 1 = People dislike him.

Statement 2 = He got the most first prefs, over 7000, approx 20% of first prefs.

It is difficult to reconcile these two statements.

I spoke to just 4 people, and they all voted for him.

People disliking someone, and other people voting for that person, are utterly orthogonal points.

People are voting for Donald Trump in their droves. Does that mean you can't understand why other people dislike him? People are voting for Hillary Clinton in their droves. Does that mean you can't understand why other people dislike her?

Yes, lots of people voted for Mullen. Does that mean there's some sort of compulsion for others to like him?

Geuze

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm genuinely curious: is that because you don't know anything about him? Because that's literally the only reason I can think of for not understanding why people dislike him.

I don't know a lot about him, I know a little.

He was elected in 2007, and re-elected in 2011.

He topped the poll in both 2007 and 2011, somebody must like him.

I realise he is seen as "socially conservative", whatever than means.

I would not agree with all his positions.

But I would not be virulently against him, either.

El Tarangu

Geuze wrote: »

I realise he is seen as "socially conservative", whatever than means...

But I would not be virulently against him, either.

I would have a strong dislike for Mullen; not for the fact that he is socially conservative, per se, but he is alleged to have made an insensitive comment to one of the women who were visiting the Dáil that had been obliged to go to England for a termination when they had a received a diagnosis of fatal foetal abnormality.

blackwhite

Much and all as I detest Mullen, I can help but feel his election provides somewhat of a strange balance to the election of Bacik by the TCD electorate.

Two hardcore extremists from opposing ends of the spectrum - hopefully they just cancel each other out.

L1011

Geuze wrote: »

Statement 1 = People dislike him.

Statement 2 = He got the most first prefs, over 7000, approx 20% of first prefs.

It is difficult to reconcile these two statements.

I spoke to just 4 people, and they all voted for him.

20% of first prefs does not equal "people like him" if you're going to keep with the "silent majority" concept. You would think he'd get a lot more than 20% in that case.

The NUI panel has pretty much every priest and theology graduate in the state capable of voting for it, as well as those who went to the "catholic universities" of UCD and Maynooth when they were still *very* Catholic. This explains the 20%.

oscarBravo

Geuze wrote: »

He topped the poll in both 2007 and 2011, somebody must like him.

Clearly. What I'm struggling to understand is how somebody must like him has anything whatsoever with not being able to understand why other people dislike him.

L1011

SF's discipline in vote management is showing (not that its even vaguely surprising) - think they got one over the line on the first count on every panel?

Labour have picked up large enough transfers from outside the party on the panels contested but the first prefs on the smaller panels were surprising - have about 70 votes but Humphreys has got 99 1s and O'Riordan 88. Can only assume councillors of various centre-left persuasions who didn't have a matching Green/SD/Ind candidate voted there.