Summer Transfer Window - 2016

BullBlackNova

FourFourTwo reporting that Leicester have big £15 million for Burnley defender Michael Keane.

£45 million for Deeney and Keane could be some of the worst transfer business in history.

Staggering for a team who spent so well buying from abroad in recent seasons.

EDIT: Burnley have rejected an £11.5 million bid for Michael Keane.

Football is eating itself.

SantryRed

Deeney would be taking the Okazaki role in the Leicester side. He'd probably be a decent improvement on him.

I'm not really sure if I want Watford to sell Deeney or not. Yes, 30m is a lot of money, but it's no money at all if we don't replace him and don't score goals next season.

eagle eye

BullBlackNova wrote: »

FourFourTwo reporting that Leicester have big £15 million for Burnley defender Michael Keane.

£45 million for Deeney and Keane could be some of the worst transfer business in history.

Staggering for a team who spent so well buying from abroad in recent seasons.

EDIT: Burnley have rejected an £11.5 million bid for Michael Keane.

Football is eating itself.

Would you not be thinking that maybe you are wrong about those players when Leicester come calling with big offers?

They have a great record in recent times so you'd have to respect that they know what they are doing. It's not just buying from abroad that they have been good at, they picked up Robert Huth and Danny Simpson who both looked finished and they've done a great job for them since they arrived there.

Skylinehead

eagle eye wrote: »

Would you not be thinking that maybe you are wrong about those players when Leicester come calling with big offers?

They have a great record in recent times so you'd have to respect that they know what they are doing. It's not just buying from abroad that they have been good at, they picked up Robert Huth and Danny Simpson who both looked finished and they've done a great job for them since they arrived there.

Yeah, they've done well spending little money on great players. Spending £30m on Troy Deeny is a whole other ball game.

Dirty Dingus McGee

Deeney only scored 7 goals that weren't penalties in the league last season and now he's worth £30 million .

Completely crazy money for a bog standard player at that level.

Watford should bite Leicesters hands off for that.

eagle eye

Skylinehead wrote: »

Yeah, they've done well spending little money on great players. Spending £30m on Troy Deeny is a whole other ball game.

I'm sure people thought the exact same thing when the paid £1 million to Fleetwood Town for Jamie Vardy.

Dirty Dingus McGee

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm sure people thought the exact same thing when the paid £1 million to Fleetwood Town for Jamie Vardy.

£1 million is nothing so it's not a gamble.

This could be a massive flop and they could spend an excessive amount of their transfer budget on a player who isn't that great.

SantryRed

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

Deeney only scored 7 goals that weren't penalties in the league last season and now he's worth £30 million .

Completely crazy money for a bog standard player at that level.

Watford should bite Leicesters hands off for that.

He set up a hell of a lot of Ighalo's goals last season though. As Watford captain and the leader of the squad as well, he is worth a lot more money to Watford than just the goals. Also, and I think this is critical, with all the players that come and go with Watford, having a leader like that is pretty crucial, and I'm not really sure who else is in the side who could become that leader.

Dirty Dingus McGee

SantryRed wrote: »

He set up a hell of a lot of Ighalo's goals last season though. As Watford captain and the leader of the squad as well, he is worth a lot more money to Watford than just the goals. Also, and I think this is critical, with all the players that come and go with Watford, having a leader like that is pretty crucial, and I'm not really sure who else is in the side who could become that leader.

He's a good team player alright but I still think £30 million is a huge price for him.Watford could replace him and get another couple of top quality players with that sort of money.

greendom

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

He's a good team player alright but I still think £30 million is a huge price for him.Watford could replace him and get another couple of top quality players with that sort of money.

A bit like Spurs did with the Bale money ?

Sounds good in theory but it doesn't always work out. if Watford don't need to sell, why should they?

inforfun

Well, Leicester might still be that club who gets foreigners on the cheap as they just contracted Luis Hernandez from Sporting Gijon on a free.

Cant get them cheaper than that

Giggsy11

greendom wrote: »

A bit like Spurs did with the Bale money ?

Sounds good in theory but it doesn't always work out. if Watford don't need to sell, why should they?

Or like Juventus when they sold Zidane, Inzaghi and signed Thuran, Nedved and Buffon.

Just because one team wasted money doesn't mean it's not just a theory. There are plenty of examples where team invested smartly.

TheDoc

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

Deeney only scored 7 goals that weren't penalties in the league last season and now he's worth £30 million .

Completely crazy money for a bog standard player at that level.

Watford should bite Leicesters hands off for that.

Agreed. Mental money for what has appeared to be an average player at best

BullBlackNova

eagle eye wrote: »

Would you not be thinking that maybe you are wrong about those players when Leicester come calling with big offers?

They have a great record in recent times so you'd have to respect that they know what they are doing. It's not just buying from abroad that they have been good at, they picked up Robert Huth and Danny Simpson who both looked finished and they've done a great job for them since they arrived there.

Perhaps - they certainly have form in their judgement so maybe we can give them the benefit of the doubt.

I would say, though, that I have seen Deeney play quite a bit - as I'm sure we all have since Watford came to the PL - and nothing about him suggests £30 million player to me.

I can't help but feel there are better alternatives out there. I mean, for one, even someone like Christian Benteke would come with PL experience and likely be cheaper.

Plus, let's not pretend that Leicester's transfer policy is infallible - Yohan Benaloune, Gokhan Inler, Andrej Kramaric all signed for decent fees and none were successful.

The players they have signed from English sides have done well - Simpson, Huth as you say - but the bulk of their players have arrived from abroad so seems a bit of a change in tactic.

CSF

Deeney is a very good player, but I don't think any of us could claim the fee isn't excessive.

smileyj1987

CSF wrote: »

Deeney is a very good player, but I don't think any of us could claim the fee isn't excessive.

I would say its a normal fee now a few years ago it would have been 15 million but you can double it because of a the money now floating around in the premier league

Harry Palmr

If Deeney goes for that money I think rather than setting a benchmark it'll shock every other club into some sense which is bad news for getting rid of Benteke! :pac:

glued

Harry Palmr wrote: »

If Deeney goes for that money I think rather than setting a benchmark it'll shock every other club into some sense which is bad news for getting rid of Benteke! :pac:

Nah, it'll just continue to get worse until something is done about it. Football clubs are massively overvalued and sooner or later somebody is going to question the true value of money in football. I'd give it another 5 years before some of these clubs have massive cash flow problems and then the fun will start.

rob316

glued wrote: »

Nah, it'll just continue to get worse until something is done about it. Football clubs are massively overvalued and sooner or later somebody is going to question the true value of money in football. I'd give it another 5 years before some of these clubs have massive cash flow problems and then the fun will start.

They are saying that for the last 10 years, they are only getting richer and richer. I don't see any sign of the bubble bursting only getting bigger.

Liamalone

Even with the money floating about Troy Deeney is never a £20 million player let alone £30 million. If he is, then I must be worth at least twenty quid now!

glued

rob316 wrote: »

They are saying that for the last 10 years, they are only getting richer and richer. I don't see any sign of the bubble bursting only getting bigger.

That's what they said about the property market too. It's fairly obvious that there is a massive bubble in PL football. It's harder to accurately measure the cash generated by the asset (player) as we don't get metrics to decipher the monetary value of a players contribution during a season or for individual shirt sales.

But let's say for example Leicester pay £30M for Troy Deeney tomorrow. If he signs a 4 year deal worth £85k p/w that's another cost of £17M excluding taxes, brining the total cost to £47M.

A player can generate money in three ways:

1. Shirt sales and other marketing - Let's be honest, they have absolute no hope of recovering their value here
2. Through his contribution on the field - It's near impossible to put an actual value on a player's contribution. Again, extremely unlikely to offset much of his cost here.
3. Through re-sale value. Again largely an unknown, emotional variable.

I don't think Troy Deeney will ever be worth that amount of money to Leicester City.

I'm not going to get into it fully here but football clubs are massively overvalued. My guess is in the next 5 years we'll see clubs of similar size to Leicester with major cash flow problems.

AdamD

There's only a bubble in football if you believe TV money is suddenly going to decrease. If you don't believe that then there's no justification for calling it a bubble.

Do you have any justification for believing they're going to run into cash flow problems in 5 years?

glued

AdamD wrote: »

There's only a bubble in football if you believe TV money is suddenly going to decrease. If you don't believe that then there's no justification for calling it a bubble.

Do you have any justification for believing they're going to run into cash flow problems in 5 years?

I'm not sure if you understand the word bubble by your first point. Bubbles are only really identified in retrospect but I think you'd really have to be quite unrealistic to think that the PL clubs aren't in a massive bubble.

rob316

glued wrote: »

I'm not sure if you understand the word bubble by your first point. Bubbles are only really identified in retrospect but I think you'd really have to be quite unrealistic to think that the PL clubs aren't in a massive bubble.

The only way they will run into trouble is if the TV money suddenly decreased massively and there is no sign of that happening. There are rules in place for how much of their turnover can be spent on wages so an owner cant run it into the ground.

I only see it getting bigger

AdamD

glued wrote: »

I'm not sure if you understand the word bubble by your first point. Bubbles are only really identified in retrospect but I think you'd really have to be quite unrealistic to think that the PL clubs aren't in a massive bubble.

'An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly deviates from the corresponding asset's intrinsic value.'

The intrinsic value would be based on projected revenue which is highly reliant on TV money. So again, unless you think TV money will decrease, its not a bubble.

Iused2likebusts

With the amount of people watching football without a sky subscription nowadays it's surely only a matter of time before the TV money decreases.

titan18

eagle eye wrote: »

Would you not be thinking that maybe you are wrong about those players when Leicester come calling with big offers?

They have a great record in recent times so you'd have to respect that they know what they are doing. It's not just buying from abroad that they have been good at, they picked up Robert Huth and Danny Simpson who both looked finished and they've done a great job for them since they arrived there.

Do they though? For every Vardy, Mahrez and Kante, you've got a Kramaric, Inler and Benalouane. They spent 50m last season on Kante, Okazaki, Benalouane, Inler, Amartey, Gray and Huth.

22m the season before on Ulloa, Kramaric, Simpson and Lawrence. There's a lot of wasted money on players across those two years, and I really doubt a guy like Inler was on low wages.

Agent Coulson

Morata re-signs with Madrid for £17m.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Agent Coulson wrote: »

Morata re-signs with Madrid for £17m.

I'm assuming he is going to be sold on from there to Arsenal or somesuch?

Kobe248

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I'm assuming he is going to be sold on from there to Arsenal or somesuch?

Dont see why they wouldnt keep him tbh

GavRedKing

Real have a suspended 2 window transfer ban hanging over there heads pending a hearing.

Makes sense to bring him back now as the Spaish transfer window is open and he can be registered.

I cant see them selling him until the ban is up.

Buford T. Justice XIX

I'd forgotten about the ban tbh

Cantona's Collars

https://twitter.com/guardian_sport/status/745570238301863936

West Ham in talks with Juventus over deal for Italy striker Simone Zaza

GavRedKing

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I'd forgotten about the ban tbh

I'm assuming the ban will stand when it gets a hearing, Barca tried a similar tactic and brought in a few players while the ban was suspended to bolster their squad.

Atletico are facing the same transfer ban so I cant see them selling any of their best players either.

glued

AdamD wrote: »

'An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly deviates from the corresponding asset's intrinsic value.'

The intrinsic value would be based on projected revenue which is highly reliant on TV money. So again, unless you think TV money will decrease, its not a bubble.

That's incorrect. I'm not sure you really understand what a bubble is. You cannot say that a club is only in a bubble only if you think TV revenues are going to decrease. That's totally incorrect.

I'm not going to clog up this thread any more but you should read some material from Professor Tom Cannon if you really think football isn't in a massive bubble.

AdamD

glued wrote: »

That's incorrect. I'm not sure you really understand what a bubble is. You cannot say that a club is only in a bubble only if you think TV revenues are going to decrease. That's totally incorrect.

I'm not going to clog up this thread any more but you should read some material from Professor Tom Cannon if you really think football isn't in a massive bubble.

In neither of your posts you've offered any reason as to why I'm incorrect. That is not at all helpful. If its so incorrect argue the bloody point.

Liamalone

Has a bid been lodged for this 'Bubble' or what?

Agent Coulson

I hear this Bubble has a great burst of speed.

cson

Be awkward for the West Ham fans if they end up signing him. :pac:

Buford T. Justice XIX

cson wrote: »

Be awkward for the West Ham fans if they end up signing him. :pac:

Dammit, I just spat tea out all over myself:D

glued

AdamD wrote: »

In neither of your posts you've offered any reason as to why I'm incorrect. That is not at all helpful. If its so incorrect argue the bloody point.

Its hard to argue the point when your basis for football clubs being in a bubble or not is based purely on whether tv money is going to decrease.

If you want to start a thread and flesh it out I'd be happy to try and get my point across but I don't want to clog up this one with financial jargon that most people aren't going to care about.

Harry Palmr

Vardy commits to Leicester City

gosplan

Ha, this was basically Arsenal and Troy Deeney being used as bargaining chips.

'I might go to em...em...Arsenal, they're going to give me a massive signing on fee and a big wage.'

'OK. We'll sign...em...em...Troy Deeney.'

batistuta9

glued wrote: »

Its hard to argue the point when your basis for football clubs being in a bubble or not is based purely on whether tv money is going to decrease.

If you want to start a thread and flesh it out I'd be happy to try and get my point across but I don't want to clog up this one with financial jargon that most people aren't going to care about.

Start a thread on it. Is the NFL in a bubble too?

It's championship clubs chasing promotion and those who get relegated that are likely to get into trouble I imagine

Mec27

Any Irish players going to get moves? Brady and Hendrick?

hufpc8w3adnk65

Mec27 wrote: »

Any Irish players going to get moves? Brady and Hendrick?

Both will I'd think... I heard Clake was going to west brom and considering Ward didn't really play whilst in the championship he should move now burnley are in the premier

SantryRed

gosplan wrote: »

Ha, this was basically Arsenal and Troy Deeney being used as bargaining chips.

'I might go to em...em...Arsenal, they're going to give me a massive signing on fee and a big wage.'

'OK. We'll sign...em...em...Troy Deeney.'

Vardy signing new contract =/= Troy Deeney interest gone.

They've wanted to sign Deeney for a couple of years now.

glued

MrMac84 wrote: »

Both will I'd think... I heard Clake was going to west brom and considering Ward didn't really play whilst in the championship he should move now burnley are in the premier

Hendrick needs to move now too. He's been inconsistent in the Championship. I don't think another year at Derby will do him any good at this point. On form he looks like a PL midfielder so I think he needs to make that step up now.

BullBlackNova

MrMac84 wrote: »

Both will I'd think... I heard Clake was going to west brom and considering Ward didn't really play whilst in the championship he should move now burnley are in the premier

Ward didn't miss a single game after Christmas last season. Had trouble getting into the side but he grasped it with both hands when he did.

I would expect Brady to move to a lower level PL side - Sunderland, WBA, etc, I just hope it's somewhere he can settle for a while. He is improving and has the potential to continue to do so, but moving each season when his side is relegated can't help.

Hendrick is playing out of his skin now - hopefully it'll get him picked up at a similar level. I think he could do a job for a few PL teams - maybe not first choice, but he's versatile and committed so he should do okay.

I reckon Duffy might catch a few eyes too. Blackburn aren't going anywhere and he is a good player - big strong CB. It might be a Championship team but hopefully one with better promotion prospects.

Possibly Keiren Westwood too - he caught a few eyes as the best GK in the Championship last season. More than one PL team looking for new goalies, he may well get offers from the likes of Everton or Stoke to come in as a deputy. Whether he would want that or not, I don't know, but it certainly didn't do Randolph any harm.

HalloweenJack

Wanyama to Spurs for 11m is on the BBC.