Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

Oscar Bravo

Aldergrove(Belfast) forecasting heavy showers of rain and thunderstorms with heavy rain for later this afternoon. Donegal airport also has thunderstorms forecast for later this afternoon. Certainly will be some big cells about and as always please photo/video!!

LEIN

Another large flash and rumble.

Heavy rain now too.

patneve2

light rain here with some rumbles - coming from the cell to my south/south east

Oscar Bravo

Anyone in Bray? Should be a very dark sky out to sea right now

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

jimmynokia

[URL="[img]http://i.imgur.com/IqIwt8l.jpg[/img]"][/URL]

Oscar Bravo

Another one getting going near kinnegad

LEIN

Extremely dark.

pad199207

cell near mullingar starting to spark, this should intensify

Calibos

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Anyone in Bray? Should be a very dark sky out to sea right now

Flashes, thunder but still no downpours in Bray. drizzle. The cells seem to lose intensity just off the coast.

patneve2

Would also keep an eye out on that elongated shower moving north-westwards up the Irish sea

LEIN

Downpour here atm.

Trogdor

Big flash here now and much louder thunder

LEIN

Massive rumble directly overhead.

Makapakka

Nothing so far in Dublin 5, getting duller though. .

jimmynokia

Looking good
[URL="[img]http://i.imgur.com/AeBESrR.jpg[/img]"][/URL]

JeffK88

Some light hail over newbridge now very dark....

Hal1

Meteoalarm showing a lightning risk for most of us.

meteoalarm wrote:

Weather warnings: Leinster
Show RSS version
valid from 06.06.2016 12:00 CET Until 07.06.2016 01:00 CET
Thunderstorms Awareness Level: Orange
Very heavy and thundery downpours in places on Monday, with localised flooding, especially in midland and northwestern areas.

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

Calibos

Finally!

patneve2

nice flash towards the bray area - rain moderate now. Garden needs it badly

jimmynokia

Strike out by ballybrack coast,two in mullingar area

chris2007

Looks like Dublin is in the firing line light rain started

Hal1

Estofex increased it's confidence in TS risk to 50% for most of the east, midlands, and north.

Convective weather have increased their low risk coverage area to most parts excluding munster. Most of the slight risk areas to the nw.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016

ISSUED 07:39 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A similar synoptic set-up to the last few days will see weak ridging aloft from high pressure north of Scotland, however surface troughing over western Britain along with day-time heating and orographic lift should allow for scattered convection during the PM hours of Monday. As with the last few days, there continues to be uncertainty over the available moisture for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop (air generally drier in the mid-levels). However, convection allowing models indicate Monday will be more active than Sunday, with widespread convection/thunder possible over NCen/NW Ireland. However, some pockets of more intense convection are also possible over NW Wales and SW Scotland. CAPE values of 500-800 j/kg are likely in the areas where models simulate showers, therefore they should be able to produce thunder given updraft strength. (Its worth noting that GFS seems to be over-doing surface moisture, thus CAPE, and showers have been much less widespread than it would be indicated the previous few days in that particular model).

Given the slow moving nature of convection the biggest threat will be from highly localised flash flooding under the heaviest showers/thunderstorms. Virtually no wind shear is present, thus storms will be of the pulse variety and in most cases, as previously mentioned, aided by orographic uplift.

LEIN

I haven't see rain like that for many years.

Was not expecting this weather at all!!

Delighted.

pad199207

boom of thunder here in Naas

Makapakka

Love the smell or the rain coming in the windows ☺

JeffK88

Distant rumble here

LEIN

Cell up north has just started firing too.

Mav11

Starting to drizzle in Stillorgan.

jimmynokia

Getting dark and windy in DN 22 and a few strikes around the newbridge area.