Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

Rikand

DOCARCH wrote: »

Looks like a narrow but intense line of showers has developed over the north midlands stretching to Dundalk.

Almost like an elbow

DOCARCH

A couple of strikes this afternoon just off the north Dublin coast.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

joujoujou

Maybe it's not the best place to post it, but it's my home city.

Got 160mm of rain yesterday, more than 2 months worth of rain in just 14 hours! :eek:

Last night's photos (not mine):

https://www.facebook.com/Foto1982/photos/a.1214733585243865.1073741850.876402099077017/1214733628577194/?type=3&theater

Today's morning video (not mine either):

https://www.facebook.com/turystykawppl/videos/vb.100444876683490/1154614211266546/?type=2&theater

eman66

I wonder how likely these storms are 4/5 days out (click on Tues/Wed)?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;ct=31758~Galway;sess=#forecast
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;ct=18360~Londonderry;sess=#forecast

Iancar29

The storm environment next week will be highly capped but if it can bust through it, we will have a repeat of June 6th's widespread storms

lolie

Iancar29 wrote: »

The storm environment next week will be highly capped but if it can bust through it, we will have a repeat of June 6th's widespread storms

Tuesday?
If we get even half of what we got here on june 6th It'll be a good one.

pad199207

I'll just leave this here

Danno

Holeee foook - is that chart from July 1985?

Gonzo

chart for next tuesday I think.

JCX BXC

In West Clare, haven't heard a bang of thunder since January.

Danno

Gonzo wrote: »

chart for next tuesday I think.

I know...

...the similarities with 1985 tho! :eek:

jamo2oo9

pad199207 wrote: »

I'll just leave this here

ELI5 on this chart please? What does the colours mean?

Danno

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

ELI5 on this chart please? What does the colours mean?

From NWTV - "Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lifted Index (LI) charts are used to forecast the likelihood of thunderstorms. Forecast CAPE values are shown by the coloured shading with yellows, oranges and reds indicating a progressively increasing chance of thunderstorms. LI is shown by the contours with values below 0 indicating greater instability and an increasing chance of thunderstorms."

With -9 and white-red over much of Ireland means that showers could be explosive. TBH I've never seen such a chart for Ireland and if this is to pan out EXACTLY as forecast then we'd be getting violent thunder with large hail and downpours.

jamo2oo9

Danno wrote: »

From NWTV - "Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lifted Index (LI) charts are used to forecast the likelihood of thunderstorms. Forecast CAPE values are shown by the coloured shading with yellows, oranges and reds indicating a progressively increasing chance of thunderstorms. LI is shown by the contours with values below 0 indicating greater instability and an increasing chance of thunderstorms."

With -9 and white-red over much of Ireland means that showers could be explosive. TBH I've never seen such a chart for Ireland and if this is to pan out EXACTLY as forecast then we'd be getting violent thunder with large hail and downpours.

Ah, understood now. Thanks! Looks like Louth and possibly Dublin will be missing it out unless the storms move slowly towards North-East. Would that be correct? Of course that image is a still forecast so it's possible that they could move in a certain direction I think?

squarecircles

On the latest runs the storm risk is less widespread and the cape values lower,thundery rain I'd imagine for most.

Hooter23

Say it again:P

Iancar29

Lads, a few pointers .

1. Models have been changing alot since the 00z run . I knew it wasn't believable as you never get such high instability so close to the coast. Unless we were in the Med! Instability nearly always increases further inland .

2. You don't just look at CAPE and LI charts and assume you will/will not get a storm over your house. There are lots of other parameters to be looking at. Lapse rates, moisture convergence, wind convergence ,precipitable water & wind shear. All play a vital part into figuring out where the actual storm potential will be.

3. The latest run (12z) still suggests possible repeat of June 5th last .MCS type mode. However, I will be holding back my excitement until Monday as these plume events usually shift east the closer it gets. Hi res models is where the detail will be as usual.

Now lets go light a few candles... :pac:

pad199207

Iancar29 wrote: »

Lads, a few pointers .

1. Models have been changing alot since the 00z run . I knew it wasn't believable as you never get such high instability so close to the coast. Unless we were in the Med! Instability nearly always increases further inland .

2. You don't just look at CAPE and LI charts and assume you will/will not get a storm over your house. There are lots of other parameters to be looking at. Lapse rates, moisture convergence, wind convergence ,precipitable water & wind shear. All play a vital part into figuring out where the actual storm potential will be.

3. The latest run (12z) still suggests possible repeat of June 5th last .MCS type mode. However, I will be holding back my excitement until Monday as these plume events usually shift east the closer it gets. Hi res models is where the detail will be as usual.

Now lets go light a few candles... :pac:

Very well said Ian. Very very easy to lose the run of oneself with these kinda charts.

joujoujou

joujoujou wrote: »

Maybe it's not the best place to post it, but it's my home city.

Got 160mm of rain yesterday, more than 2 months worth of rain in just 14 hours! :eek:

[...]

Small update: some people enjoyed the aftermaths.





And one even gone fishing, although no info if he caught any.

Ryan Mac Sweeney

Thats some flooding in the pictures where is that? I would say that the fire brigade had a really busy day. Was there thunder?

joujoujou

Thunder/torrential rain.

[post]100365115[/post]

ArKl0w

Looking at the latest GFS,Tuesday afternoon and evening looks very sparky to me up across the middle of the country and the northwest

Later Tuesday night and into we essay morning,Welsh imports along the east coast could bring a lot of lightning and quite a show as it will be night time to say 6am and onwards
I can't post links yet sorry.

sryanbruen

Yeah the heat on Tuesday will spark off some exceptionally intense thunderstorms and downpours but more likely across Britain. These will be very dangerous storms as the heat will be quite severe. Some places could reach over 70mm in under a 24 hour period from Tuesday night to Wednesday night.

jimmynokia

How about the east coast Dublin in particular how does it look for us for a good light show

https://twitter.com/UKWeatherLive/status/754625619946770432

ArKl0w

Jimmy the storms over SW England and Wales could be extensive Tuesday night and in a SE flow,there's a serious chance they will hit the east coast overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning
Coastal Wexford ,Wicklow and up to Howth are in that firing line
There's already a lot of heat and humidity in the eastern half so a big chance those Welsh imports will be sferictastic and noisy
The switch to cooler later when wenesday onwards but not by much is getting more confident so obviously what could happen Tuesday even more so
Let's see

Iancar29

Yeah its looking likely there'll be a nice light display up the Irish sea tuesday night. Im hoping it kicks off a bit earlier than models suggest though or itll be running into daylight hours which will obviously make it alot harder to see anything.



Hopefully the NMM 12z tomorrow will show something more positive for us in the east.

ArKl0w

It will probably be dark when they start down this way Ian but tbh I wouldn't be at all surprised if this pans out to see a lot of daylight forks and there's no doubt people would be talking about the loudness of the thunder

PukkaStukka

Met Eireann is describing the Tuesday / Wednesday thunderstorm prospects as "isolated" and "slight". It's at variance with the expectations here..

But they're probably right, the chances of a "thunderstorm" in Ireland are rare, I equate a Thunderstorm to several flashes and bangs every few minutes . Not a few rumbles and flashes every 20-30 mins.

I still love it whatever we get though.

jamo2oo9

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Met Eireann is describing the Tuesday / Wednesday thunderstorm prospects as "isolated" and "slight". It's at variance with the expectations here..

Possible that they could be covering themselves really. Anything can change in 32-48hrs.