Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

eman66

Don't think they mentioned the east either. Just the north west.

ArKl0w

Met Eireann are always behind the curve on thunder,I do not know why
Remember the Dublin storm last month,a Welsh import not forecast at all by Glasnevin and it had a lot of forked lightning
The BBC news 24 forecast just now on the other hand had severe (their words) thunderstorms moving up east Leinster and into Ulster overnight Tuesday into wenesday
These are essentially Cornish and Welsh imports

The sheer heat tomorrow coupled with a SE feed sourced in France will set off home grown storms in the midlands and west tomorrow too

I notice Mt lately being more conservative than he used be in forecasting too
It's hard to strike a balance but what's coming could be very interesting and noisy let's see

ArKl0w

Yup graphics on BBC lunchtime forecast have the instability spreading up through Leinster from Britany Cornwall and Wales
His words were vicious,frequent lightning and large hail

If that's what happens it's not untypical of Glasnevin to wait almost until their windows and doors are shaking to tell us about it

Should this happen it will be localised,so some getting the works,others nothing
Fun should start in the west and north by evening tomorrow
Then overnight in Leinster
Let's see

Storm 10

What are the chances of thunderstorms in the West tomorrow

Iancar29

1) DAY TIME POTENTIAL

Right folks, having reviewed the latest set of models heres my take on things.

Overnight tonight a plume of high theta values will move up from france bringing some highly unstable air towards Ireland in the morning.

By midday under good clear skies, strong insolation will take place building CAPE values of >2000 k/kg quite widely. Accompanying this will be an upper level jet streak creating strong deep level shear values of up to 35knts in places and Low level shear of up to 25knts. These factors suggest suppercells are possible. Even with their isolated nature, likely threats will be gusts to 120km/hr , large hail (>1inch) and even a tornado .

However, a strong cap will be in place and will suppress widespread activity until the late afternoon at least.

Hi res models suggest the best place for the cap to break will be in the NW. I think the storms will be a bit more widespread here than the model suggests currently




People in these areas should take this watch seriously, especially those with/who knows people who has livestock.

2) Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning .
Overnight Tuesday with Dewpoints into high teens low 20s will give ample energy for a potential MCS to from in the Irish sea moving NNE into early Wednesday morning. How close to the Irish coast line it will be is still subjective to change but hopefully its more towards us than to England.

This too will be quite severe in nature with frequent lightning and strong positive CGs ( the ones that make the loudest thunder)



As mentioned before it may be too bright to see all the activity but im hopeful that it will still put on a good show for many in the east who plan to watch it. Be sensible though if you plan on watching it.

Iancar29

So heres my final guess and the main risk areas.



Will update if/when needed.

Now... off to light those candles again. :pac:

ArKl0w

Storm 10 wrote: »

What are the chances of thunderstorms in the West tomorrow

Pretty good but scattered from late afternoon onwards so if you're under it you'll know all about it
The stuff moving up through Leinster and east Munster overnight tomorrow,I wouldn't rule out sporadically appearing further west either

Storm 10

ArKl0w wrote: »

Pretty good but scattered from late afternoon onwards so if you're under it you'll know all about it
The stuff moving up through Leinster and east Munster overnight tomorrow,I wouldn't rule out sporadically appearing further west either

Thanks for that info, that's me up on the roof when I go home to take down my radio antennas.

So what the hell is CAPE anyway ? sounds like something out of Batman !

Iancar29

Deleted User wrote: »

So what the hell is CAPE anyway ? sounds like something out of Batman !

Convective available potential energy

Bsal

The hype is real

jimmynokia

Grabs Popcorn and camera.. Sets deck chair on de roof....

ArKl0w

Some periscope live video would be nice

Elmer Blooker

Storm 10 wrote: »

What are the chances of thunderstorms in the West tomorrow

The forecast on Radio 1 half an hour ago mentioned the west and north most at risk but the exact location of thunderstorms is very difficult to predict.

RobertKK

UK has it moving up over east Munster/south Leinster and moving north/north east.
Reminds me of 1985...

Here is an image from the weather on BBC.

jimmynokia

ArKl0w wrote: »

Some periscope live video would be nice

I will keep that in mind I have two good androids here

RobertKK

Met Eireann really downplaying the activity for Leinster/East Munster that the UK Met are predicting.

ArKl0w

Aye
No mention at all
I am surprised but remember if it stays off shore and all anyone sees is distant lightning and faint booms most non nerds will not notice

If it comes like it does on the BBC graphics,you might hear them mention there's a few thundery showers but they should die out shortly kind of thing

ArKl0w

RobertKK wrote: »

UK has it moving up over east Munster/south Leinster and moving north/north east.
Reminds me of 1985...

Here is an image from the weather on BBC.

Yeah,that's like cheese to met Eireann's chalk
Quite a marked difference in forecast
They've been informed of that map now btw so may be investigating:D

Kermit.de.frog

Just clipping the East coast on 12:00 run

ninebeanrows

EC has nothing of note across Ireland apart from a few storms over northernmost counties late Tuesday but these clear into Scotland later.

The second pulse of instability moves into Wales and then northern England Wednesday morning.

ArKl0w

That's what I thought was the reason behind it

Let's see who is right
On the basis of other models not the EC at present the UK met office forecast for NI early wenesday would be wrong

JanuarySnowstor

2 points from me,

Historically such hot spells go out with a bang

The beeb are rarely wrong and you wouldn't bet against them.

Bearing in mind that the gfs ppn is in agreement I think anywhere East of Cork could see some fireworks tomorrow evening. Most favoured obviously the further East you go.
For me the storm risk for the southeast looks more potent than what's on offer up North.
Time will tell.....

ArKl0w

Aye,I'm expecting it here in Arklow and if it comes and is spectacular enough I'll try get periscope going
But it may well end up affecting a few miles inland from the coast at most
In which case Glasnevin will get away with not mentioning it except maybe at 5 to midnight Tuesday or five to 8 wenesday morning

Meteorite58

Netweathers storm risk charts shows the E and N at risk earlier in the evening followed by NW later in the evening.

MidMan25

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

2 points from me,

Historically such hot spells go out with a bang

The beeb are rarely wrong and you wouldn't bet against them.

Bearing in mind that the gfs ppn is in agreement I think anywhere East of Cork could see some fireworks tomorrow evening. Most favoured obviously the further East you go.
For me the storm risk for the southeast looks more potent than what's on offer up North.
Time will tell.....

East of the city or the county?

jimmynokia

Jees that weather report on RTE was like WFT.. Compared to others and what's been said here..

ArKl0w

jimmynokia wrote: »

Jees that weather report on RTE was like WFT.. Compared to others and what's been said here..

Something very fishy about that forecast as it showed no precip at all in the Irish Sea either..
Also Evelyn would normally mention severe in the UK missing us even and she didn't say that either,even though the UK met office not only have severe thunderstorms over Leinster into Ulster but have them over Wales and north west UK too
Plus the Beeb are using language like severe,frequent lightning and large hail

Evelyn stays quiet about that?
Very strange

Hal1

I'd wait for the lunchtime forecast tomorrow before they spill the beans. There playing it safe and who could blaim them for everytime they get it wrong people are very quick to slate them as bad forecasters.

Oscar Bravo

if you run the 5 day forecast here(updated at 1800) tomorrow at 6pm it shows a mostly dry affair, however the run for 6 hours later at midnight shows a different story....keeps it interesting all the same http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp