Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

Danno

Very unusual, however - a few years ago ME got badly burned by the Donegal hotel industry for making a poor forecast, perhaps it's still fresh in their minds.

Hmm, Met Eireann reported on radio 1 about 6pm that there's a "chance" of thundery showers in the North tomorrow ? That's it ??

ninebeanrows

It is still extremely uncertain.

The major data feed used at Met E and most weather companies is the ECMWF...

It is showing hardly any activity over Ireland, barring a few isolated storms in Ulster.

GFS/NCEP is very different and has storms kicking off as early as lunchtime and has intensive storm system rolling up the Irish Sea.

I suppose it is a wait and see situation.

As a forecaster we will go for the RISK of disruptive weather across the region. Probably around 30/40% in Ireland, 70% for WALES, N ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND.

blackwave

Estoxfex have a level one warning in place over Ireland and are even mentioning that there may be short lived supercells.

http://www.estofex.org

Iancar29

Im heading to Sligo tomorrow for hopefully some intense isolate / possibly supercell storms then back to Dublin then for a nice light display tomorrow night in the Irish sea, fingers crossed. But as WC said its still very uncertain.

But as the oul saying goes... "You have to be in it to win it!"

Oscar Bravo

Gerry Murphy on the late night radio forecast just now "later on in the afternoon thundery showers will develop in western parts of connaught and ulster "

Trebor176

Well, Gerry Murphy is on Radio 1 now. Nothing too severe at all, but he did mention thundery showers in west Connaught and the north. Nothing about the east.

prinzeugen

Trebor176 wrote: »

Well, Gerry Murphy is on Radio 1 now. Nothing too severe at all, but he did mention thundery showers in west Connaught and the north. Nothing about the east.

Its the summer.. Interns are doing stuff in RTE...

eman66

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Shortwave trough is likely to engage with instability axis as it crosses NW Ireland / Northern Ireland on Tuesday afternoon/evening, with an environment with Tds in the high teens Celsius, yielding 1,000-2,000 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to erupt late afternoon through the evening hours, drifting to the N/NE. Given high CAPE, 30-40kts DLS and backed surface winds, any discrete storms may become supercells, at least for a time, with an associated risk of hail to 4.0cm in diameter, strong, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado - SVR issued to cover all three threats.

Take cover!

Iancar29

As I worried, lastest models push the east coast potential later to after the sun has risen tomorrow so may not be as good of a light show as initially hoped. Lets hope it kicks off a good bit earlier than expected .

jimmynokia

Morning Ireland on RTE weather report.. Not one mention of thunderstorms.

ArKl0w

I see Gerry on radio one just now is as averse to the thunder word as he is to snow

They have changed their forecast on that 5 to 8 now to include rain spreading up from the south overnight
It won't be heavy or noteworthy and no thunderstorms

We'll see

jimmynokia

2nd report just said thundery shower in NW

ArKl0w

jimmynokia wrote: »

Morning Ireland on RTE weather report.. Not one mention of thunderstorms.

They're mad
A competent forecast wouldn't rule out thunder in the East overnight and towards morning completely like that in a national forecast

They're also in my view completely downplaying the thunder in the west or north west later today

I hope Ian brings a Vodafone pay as you go sim with him on his chase today,with data,they have nearly nationwide good 4G
He could do a periscope broadcast from his phone

I'm going to try testing this today I've not done one before but saw the ones from turkey on Friday night,it would be fantastic for thunder if there's lightning and thunder every few seconds

On the storms after dawn tomorrow in the east,it might be pretty dark anyway if the storms actually come ashore

squarecircles

Forecast for connaught


Today

Very warm today with lots of strong sunshine and with highest temperatures ranging from 24 to 28 or 29 degrees in light to moderate southeasterly breezes. It will be dry during the morning and for much of the afternoon, but late in the afternoon and evening, some very heavy intense thundery downpours will develop, bringing a risk of localised flooding.

ArKl0w

Some mighty altocumulus already looking south from Arklow so the instability is up there!

Oscar Bravo

Knock airport have thunderstorms in the forecast between 7pm-10pm, albeit it's just a 30% chance

squarecircles

The sky here in mayo is looking somewhat disturbed already.

ArKl0w

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Knock airport have thunderstorms in the forecast between 7pm-10pm, albeit it's just a 30% chance

In meteorological speak tempo 40 is certainty so 30 means quite likely

The Acca's I observed here near Arklow are moving fairly fast north in a row
It's a pity I can't post photos yet but the heads of them are heightening

ninebeanrows

ArKl0w wrote: »

In meteorological speak tempo 40 is certainty so 30 means quite likely

The Acca's I observed here near Arklow are moving fairly fast north in a row
It's a pity I can't post photos yet but the heads of them are heightening

They are in association with a tongue of exceptional +18C 850 wet bulbs. Consensus it is just too dry at the surface for ignition but hopefully something can provide some lift!!!

pad199207

Still thinking NW and NI are the places to be this evening and tonight as heights weaken over these areas providing the trigger. Best shear up in those parts for significant storms to develop. Further south not so great. High pressure in place reducing chances of convection getting going.

Such a shame given the high heat and ingredients in place. Still should be a decent show up North!

Just my tuppance worth!

ArKl0w

pad199207 wrote: »

Still thinking NW and NI are the places to be this evening and tonight as heights weaken over these areas providing the trigger. Best shear up in those parts for significant storms to develop. Further south not so great. High pressure in place reducing chances of convection getting going.

Such a shame given the high heat and ingredients in place. Still should be a decent show up North!

Just my tuppance worth!

Its imports I'm looking to,not local convection in the East,because as WC said conditions aren't right for that
So I'm looking S and E after midnight

Mentioning the Acca's is more a case of the conditions are right not to kill any high based storm imports

The fact the instability at height is there also confirms the high temperatures in the Midlands today should create sparks somewhere in the western or northwest part of the country by late afternoon or evening
Severity is possible there locally

fraxinus1

Met Eireann are still not going for thunderstorms for the East tonight. In fairness they have been pretty spot on with the forecast over the last few days. I was going to delay going to Kerry until tomorrow with the hope of seeing some good storms in Dublin tonight and early tomorrow but no point. I think I'll drive down this evening as planned.

Reckless Abandonment

Both Euro4 and gfs are showing nothing much for the east over night. The euro4 shows nothing at all.

hotwhiskey

Twitter: Posted by Matt.
https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/755357911543586816

Follow the animated sat pic here http://en.sat24.com/en

Activity building from close to Biscay ? looks like it's heading this way and it looks a lot more widespread than indicated, and a few sparks in this too.

Check it out !!!

pedigree 6

Deleted User wrote: »

Follow the animated sat pic here http://en.sat24.com/en

Activity building from close to Biscay ? looks like it's heading this way and it looks a lot more widespread than indicated, and a few sparks in this too.

Check it out !!!

See that and I was just going to post the link as well.
Looks to me on that track like the sw will get it as well.

dacogawa

Yes, starting to kick off down south west of us, few hours yet to gauge it properly

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=13

jimmynokia

So the east coast, Dublin ruled out???

RobertKK

BBC weather at 1.30pm, shows thunderstorms over Southern Ireland.