Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

dacogawa

jimmynokia wrote: »

So the east coast, Dublin ruled out???

I wouldn't rule anything out yet, just got to wait and see...

jfSDAS

Many thanks for all the detailed info folks. Fascinating reading from people far more knowledgeable about storms and weather than me.

Just was wondering if the skies light up as expected could there be a chance of sprites being recorded overnight? I know of only a handful of events being captured from Ireland, usually by dedicated meteor patrol cameras such as that at Armagh Observatory (http://star.arm.ac.uk/press/2013/sprite.html) or Michael O'Connell's set-up in Kildare.

Possibly to point the camera out over the Irish Sea (if the storm system is over Wales and you live on Ireland's east coast) or if, as you were saying Ian, you are in Sligo, then to turn the cameras towards the SE or NE if the storms are on our east coast? People in the SE of Ireland might spot some over storm systems rolling in from Biscay?

It's wishful thinking but ya never know

Some links ...

http://www.spritesandjets.com/

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=25&month=06&year=2014

http://elf.gi.alaska.edu/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprite_(lightning)

Danno

Dewpoints above 20c here pretty much all day so far, currently 28.9c and dewpoint of 21.7c

(South County Laois)

ArKl0w

jimmynokia wrote: »

So the east coast, Dublin ruled out???

Nope all on track according to BBC news 24 graphics

pad199207

Yeah I got to give it to the BBC. Very brave call by them. But sure look they don't cover Rep Of Ireland, so they can plot thunderstorm graphics over us all they like, if they get it wrong we can't complain to them I guess....

ArKl0w

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah I got to give it to the BBC. Very brave call by them. But sure look they don't cover Rep Of Ireland, so they can plot thunderstorm graphics over us all they like, if they get it wrong we can't complain to them I guess....

Aye but they're plotting them in the context of them moving into eastern Northern Ireland
Also their graphics are plotted from model runs plus human intervention
They're not like reading here and putting them up there for the crack like

This mornings radio forecast mentioned rain for the first time pushing up from the south overnight tonight,now if you ask me,despite them not mentioning thunder with this,it's Glasnevin that's blinked first

Of course I could be wrong but there's just too much energy up high for there not to be sfericgasms if you introduce moisture

Btw the graphics had this stuff well inland too so Naas not ruled out at all,quite in the firing line actually!

pad199207

ArKl0w wrote: »

Aye but they're plotting them in the context of them moving into eastern Northern Ireland
Also their graphics are plotted from model runs plus human intervention
They're not like reading here and putting them up there for the crack like

This mornings radio forecast mentioned rain for the first time pushing up from the south overnight tonight,now if you ask me,despite them not mentioning thunder with this,it's Glasnevin that's blinked first

Of course I could be wrong but there's just too much energy up high for there not to be sfericgasms if you introduce moisture

Btw the graphics had this stuff well inland too so Naas not ruled out at all,quite in the firing line actually!

Naas is in the firing line? Makes sense cause I'm in Dublin today and tonight lol

pad199207

One thing that that arc of cloud moving up from biscay will do is block out the sun. So unless it wants to fire off widespread severe tornadic haily gusty lightningy electrical storms it can shag off!

squarecircles

Skies over mayo looking south

pedigree 6

Starting to show up on netweather rainfall radar.

SEPT 23 1989

met eireann sticking to their guns at 3pm

showers and a few sparks in the NW

Oscar Bravo

Met eireann short range showing very heavy rain off the S/SE at 11pm

pedigree 6

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met eireann short range showing very heavy rain off the S/SE at 11pm

Be in cork and Kerry in 2 hours.
Maybe less it's moving fast.

squarecircles

...

squarecircles

markfla

Early sign of convection in donegal?

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann 1615 update
19 July 2016 16:15


Today
Sunshine will gradually turn more hazy from the Southwest this evening with some showery rain developing in places and the risk of the odd thundery downpour.

Tonight

Muggy tonight with showery outbreaks of rain, and the risk of local heavy or thundery downpours. Drier in the West and feeling a little fresher later along Atlantic counties, as westerly breezes set in. Lows 13-18C.

Storm 10

Looking at this radar it seems to be on track for the South West and up along the West coast

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

JanuarySnowstor

Met eireann have made a right mess of this.
Nothing in the northwest but plenty action looks like moving onto the southcoast

dacogawa

1st strike off the North West coast

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=12

sunbabe08

is cork getting some thunderstorms this evening??

ninebeanrows

The truth is nobody knows but remember cold front is going to edge in fast from the west later so major TS risk will be in north and east from midnight , and gone from here by 0900

ninebeanrows

Nobody knows is not good wording but there's a large swathe at risk but very low confidence

Danno

Even though it's a good bit out, my Boltek is picking up persistent strikes from the south. Interestingly the NW Mayo strikes are not getting picked up.

Discodog

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall

Useful site for radar forward projection.

DOCARCH

Nice cells off the NW coast. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=7&lon=-5.12&lat=53.91&fcTime=1468901700

ArKl0w

A completely different forecast now from Met Eireann compared to last nights boring output to be honest

The precip band looking like sliding up through Munster into central Leinster heading NE towards Belfast
Showers to the east of that line could be potent
All this happening overnight
There should be sparks ,lots and lots of sparks
Sfericgasms:D

Danno

Here is a handy link to see where lightning is... you can zoom in on Ireland using the LHS menu... http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=10

NOTICE: The detection over Ireland/Celtic Sea will not be as precise owing to a lack of detectors here, so even though it might seem a few strikes, changes are activity will be higher. Eastern Ireland will be better served by the detectors.

Dollseyes

Thunder just now outside crossmolina town co Mayo.

Kermit.de.frog

ArKl0w wrote: »

A completely different forecast now from Met Eireann compared to last nights boring output to be honest

The precip band looking like sliding up through Munster into central Leinster heading NE towards Belfast
Showers to the east of that line could be potent
All this happening overnight
There should be sparks ,lots and lots of sparks
Sfericgasms:D

You have to take each forecast on it's merits, Bill.