Tesla Model 3

eeguy

bk wrote: »

What you mean is that Ford, etc. are fluting about in the lab with this technology, developing it in case they need it, but hoping that they won't need it or can at least delay it for as long as possible. Just as they are doing with EV's

The problem for car companies is that self driving cars will lead to on-demand driving services like Uber, which in the long term will massively reduce the demand for new cars.

Also BTW Tesla is also aiming for the no steering wheel approach (it probably will still have a steering wheel, you just don't have to use it), they are way ahead of anyone else on this.

This is the other factor. We're in for an interesting few years as this tech finds its feet.

Scottie99

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Just noticed that the Model 3 reservation page has a 'pay later' option. Does that mean you can effectively add your name to the list without forking out any cash - or just that you get a few days to wire the money or something?

You're given a reservation number but you don't go onto the waiting list until the deposit is paid.

Scottie99

KCross wrote: »

Even if I saw it I dont think I'd want the first "batch" off the line of any new car be it EV or ICE. Got burned once with that and wont repeat it, if at all possible.

Unless the warranty was sufficiently good that the issues didnt cost me. 5yrs on everything, at least.

Whats the warranty on a Model 3 going to be?... not the battery but all the other stuff... chargers, inverters, handles, switches etc.?

Here in Ireland we won't be in the first batch. Late 2018/19 is the expected delivery date..

Scottie99

josip wrote: »

There would be some similarities to buying apartments off plans during our glory years when we were the toast of the world.
But one difference between the apartments and the Model 3 is that you knew how much the apartment would cost whenever it was ready.

We've been given the basic cost of the 3.

josip

Scottie99 wrote: »

We've been given the basic cost of the 3.

Which is?

unkel

josip wrote: »

Which is?

$35,000 worldwide before local taxes

See my calculation a few pages back. If the Model 3 is deemed to be assembled in the EU (most likely Tilburg, NL where the Model S and Model X are assembled for the whole of the EU), there are no import duties due and the net price to the consumer here in IE incl. all taxes after all subsidies are applied (€5k subsidy, €5k discount on the VRT) is about €39,000

Not bad, but nearly twice the price of a base Nissan Leaf and nearly 60% more than a Hyundai Ioniq...

That's pretty pricey to be honest. 0-60 what under 7 seconds I believe was quoted ?

There's want to be a lot of standard kit for that price.

josip

unkel wrote: »

$35,000 worldwide before local taxes

See my calculation a few pages back. If the Model 3 is deemed to be assembled in the EU (most likely Tilburg, NL where the Model S and Model X are assembled for the whole of the EU), there are no import duties due and the net price to the consumer here in IE incl. all taxes after all subsidies are applied (€5k subsidy, €5k discount on the VRT) is about €39,000

Not bad, but nearly twice the price of a base Nissan Leaf and nearly 60% more than a Hyundai Ioniq...

I've seen your calculations Unkel and I've also seen 5-10 other poster's calculations in the pages prior to that.
Is your calculation a more accurate, up to date estimate than the others, or is it based on the same basic information as the others?

unkel

Most of the other calculations are incorrect (wrong way of applying VAT and VRT, not taking into account OMSP, etc.). Mine is also based on some (clearly stated) assumptions, but I believe the calculation itself is correct.

Nothing to do with being up to date, the Model 3 is still $35k in the USA and the VRT and VAT percentages over here haven't changed over the last few years and neither have the subsidies

unkel

Deleted User wrote: »

That's pretty pricey to be honest. 0-60 what under 7 seconds I believe was quoted ?

There's want to be a lot of standard kit for that price.

It will be well under half the price of the model S. It is expected to have the same (autopilot) software and it will be a lot quicker and with a much longer range than anything for sale at the moment (apart from the model S)

It's not cheap, but it's a lot of EV for the money. And obviously Tesla will want to pitch it as a premium car (not in the same league as a Nissan, a Chevrolet or a Hyundai)

zilog_jones

Yes, it is a premium car, just not a luxury car like the Model S and X
Something more like an entry-level Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3-series, Lexus IS, etc.

bk

zilog_jones wrote: »

Yes, it is a premium car, just not a luxury car like the Model S and X
Something more like an entry-level Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3-series, Lexus IS, etc.

Yes, exactly, I was just about to say that.

For comparison, the very cheapest, entry level, BMW 3 Series is €36,500 and it can go up to €63,500, with no accessories added!!

I think the Model 3 will be in the same ballpark, €39k is a good guestimate, though I also think it will come better speced out then equivalently priced BMW's

unkel

zilog_jones wrote: »

Yes, it is a premium car, just not a luxury car like the Model S and X
Something more like an entry-level Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3-series, Lexus IS, etc.

And they are roughly the same price, but a lot slower and probably less well specced. It remains to be seen if the Tesla will be made to the same quality standards as those cars though.

josip

I would be surprised if the old supply-demand-price equilibrium didn't kick in



The unprecedented demand, as shown by the number of deposits, will have demonstrated that with a limited supply, Tesla would be able to increase the price and hence increase their profits.

zilog_jones

unkel wrote: »

It remains to be seen if the Tesla will be made to the same quality standards as those cars though.

If they keep their customer service up to the same standards as they currently do, I'm not sure it will matter that much. Things like JD Power surveys are largely based on customer satisfaction, and certain Italian and French manufacturers tend to do so badly because of their shoddy after-sales service - not necessarily because their cars are bad.

KCross

zilog_jones wrote: »

If they keep their customer service up to the same standards as they currently do, I'm not sure it will matter that much. Things like JD Power surveys are largely based on customer satisfaction, and certain Italian and French manufacturers tend to do so badly because of their shoddy after-sales service - not necessarily because their cars are bad.

I think the thing with the Model 3 though is that the volume of cars will be significantly more than the S or X so reliability is going to be the key to its success, more so than customer service.

If something goes wrong with the S they can give good customer service because the volumes are low. If something goes wrong with a car they are producing in the 100s of thousands they are going to be in trouble very fast.

That's my excuse for not buying one initially!

bk

josip wrote: »

The unprecedented demand, as shown by the number of deposits, will have demonstrated that with a limited supply, Tesla would be able to increase the price and hence increase their profits.

I do wonder what the future of this company is. At the moment they seem to be heading for a very comfortable position as a BMW/Apple type company. Premium brand, that isn't quiet mass market, but manages to take disproportionate amounts of the profits in the industry.

Or will they continue to push down market to become the next Toyota, mass market producer.

If we were going by just best business practice, then I'd say stay up in the premium, high profit market. But from what I've seen, I don't think Musk is just in this for the money and he well may want to bring his EV's to everyone.

I think it depends on what the rest of the market does. If Toyota, Hyundai, etc. finally wake up and make decent, affordable EV's, then he might stay out of that battle and stay as a premium EV manufacturer. On the other hand, if they continue to drag their feet on EV's he might just continue to push down market. It will be interesting to watch.

bk

KCross wrote: »

I think the thing with the Model 3 though is that the volume of cars will be significantly more than the S or X so reliability is going to be the key to its success, more so than customer service.

True, but from what I've read, this is why they have focused more on ease of manufacture, consistency and automation for the Model 3, then the they did with the S and X.

The S and X are very bespoke cars, with them making changes on almost a weekly basis and a lot of hands on manufacturing. Which BTW isn't that unusual for similarly priced high end cars like Merc S class, etc.

As build numbers goes up and price down, then you need a much greater degree of consistency and automation.

Everything I've read about the model 3 is that it isn't a particularly difficult car to make, they could probably made it 2 years ago if they wanted to, but in small numbers. No the issue they have is in massively scaling up battery production and automated manufacturing lines to build large numbers of cars, quickly, consistently and cheaply.

Musk himself has said the major challenge for the Model 3 is the design and building of the Gigafactory, not the car itself. So we will have to wait and see if he manages it, but he is certainly on the right track IMO.

josip

bk wrote: »

I do wonder what the future of this company is. At the moment they seem to be heading for a very comfortable position as a BMW/Apple type company. Premium brand, that isn't quiet mass market, but manages to take disproportionate amounts of the profits in the industry.

Or will they continue to push down market to become the next Toyota, mass market producer.

If we were going by just best business practice, then I'd say stay up in the premium, high profit market. But from what I've seen, I don't think Musk is just in this for the money and he well may want to bring his EV's to everyone.

I think it depends on what the rest of the market does. If Toyota, Hyundai, etc. finally wake up and make decent, affordable EV's, then he might stay out of that battle and stay as a premium EV manufacturer. On the other hand, if they continue to drag their feet on EV's he might just continue to push down market. It will be interesting to watch.

I wonder is the naming of the models a clue as to his aspirations?

cros13

josip wrote: »

I wonder is the naming of the models a clue as to his aspirations?

S3XY?

bk

josip wrote: »

I wonder is the naming of the models a clue as to his aspirations?

The model 3 was originally supposed to be the model E (yes as in SEXY), but Ford objected to it and won (the Model T and E series vans).

BTW The Model Y is supposed to be an upcoming cross-over/SUV built on the smaller Model 3 chassis.

So clearly they are targeting the BMW market for now, which makes loads of sense, given their current manufacturing capacity. My question is more about their plans for 5 to 10 years from now, once they have experience in high volume manufacturing.

Actually, now that I think of it, Elon has already told us in one of his blogs. He specifically says:

A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

That being self driving cars and Uber like rent on demand self driving car services.

So I think they are going to stay up market, with the next vehicles being Model Y SUV, a US style pickup truck and a big rig. The company is likely to expand in other directions with the solar roof and battery storage divisions.

Disappointing that we won't get an even cheaper model 1 and 2, at least for now. But hopefully other car companies will be forced to respond to customer demand in their niches.

NIMAN

Seen my first Tesla in the flesh the other day, passed me on the dual carriageway heading out of Derry.

DrPhilG

NIMAN wrote: »

Seen my first Tesla in the flesh the other day, passed me on the dual carriageway heading out of Derry.

Saw one charging on the Glendermott road last year. Lovely motor.

Scottie99

DrPhilG wrote: »

Saw one charging on the Glendermott road last year. Lovely motor.

I drove one recently and in Scotland. Lovely to drive, with the exception of the tablet type screen, I found the interior pretty average. Not at the same spec or standard of a Merc etc.
I hear though, they have hired someone from Volvo to design interior for coming upgrades.

https://electrek.co/2016/12/19/tesla-poach-volvo-head-interior-engineering/

caster

Model 3 looks to be on track to start production in July.

Up to 50,000 produced this year if all goes to plan.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/22/tesla-model-3-prototypes-production-crash-test/

50,000 ? you wouldn't want to be waiting ! The car will be a couple of years old before it's available to non deposit holders.

cros13

50,000 if we're lucky this year and 200-300k in 2018. With no RHD models until Q3/Q4 2018 at the very earliest.

Rumor has it the reservation list has grown to 630,000.

unkel

Jaysus. 600k people all paid a grand deposit?!!!!

Manzoor14

Took a Model S for a spin earlier this week, so I took the opportunity to ask the UK sales guy when were they expecting delivery of the first Model 3s in the UK. He said they were told 23 months from now, at the earliest. He reckoned they'd start getting delivered in Ireland pretty much the exact same time, or maybe a couple of weeks later. No idea how true it is, just passing on exactly what he said!

eeguy

Manzoor14 wrote: »

Took a Model S for a spin earlier this week, so I took the opportunity to ask the UK sales guy when were they expecting delivery of the first Model 3s in the UK. He said they were told 23 months from now, at the earliest. He reckoned they'd start getting delivered in Ireland pretty much the exact same time, or maybe a couple of weeks later. No idea how true it is, just passing on exactly what he said!

That sounds about right. Although how the car looks and feels 23 months from now may be very different from the current model.

cros13

unkel wrote: »

Jaysus. 600k people all paid a grand deposit?!!!!

Yup, for a car many won't see in person or test drive for 18-36 months. BMW et al. have no concept of the forthcoming massacre of their sales.

The last official figures were accounts filed with the SEC at the end of september 2016. They were holding $700 million in customer deposits then and deposits have continued to roll in over the next 6 months.

bk

eeguy wrote: »

That sounds about right. Although how the car looks and feels 23 months from now may be very different from the current model.

While there tends to be lots of change over time with the Model S, I'd expect a lot less change with the Model 3. Obviously it won't be exactly the same, battery density, minor tweaks, etc. but I wouldn't expect significant changes.

With the Model S they were learning how to build a car. With the Model 3 they are much more focused on learning how to build a factory, with high degrees of automation. You need to keep the car pretty consistent for that.

Also yes, I agree I think the Model 3 will absolutely devastate the BMW 3 series and similar. I expect the Model 3 will become the chic, cool, most have car.

unkel

BMW were reasonably early at the party with the i3 and i8. I know they haven't an awful lot of EV in the pipeline (or so we think), but I doubt they are not seeing the Model 3 coming and the implications on their low to mid level ICE sales if they don't have something similar.

Anyway bring it on, I'm looking forward to the Model 3 arriving and looking forward to lots of movement towards EV and competition in the market!

bk

unkel wrote: »

BMW were reasonably early at the party with the i3 and i8. I know they haven't an awful lot of EV in the pipeline (or so we think), but I doubt they are not seeing the Model 3 coming and the implications on their low to mid level ICE sales if they don't have something similar.

Sure, BMW does EV's, but they seem to be slow to want to really take it seriously and do what needs to be done to really compete with the Model 3 and that is come out with a ground up, normal looking, BEV 3 series.

Of course they could completely surprise us all and suddenly come out with a very nice BEV 3 series out of nowhere.

However a reminder that Nokia was once the leader of mobile phones, it even had many smart phones, including touch screen ones, long before the iPhone. Look where they are today.

BMW have to be very careful or they might lose their mindshare as a leader and innovator of their segment. Disruption can be a bitch.

KCross

bk wrote: »

Of course they could completely surprise us all and suddenly come out with a very nice BEV 3 series out of nowhere.

I thought that is exactly what they are doing. Was it cros13 said one was on the way in the next few years.... in the same timeframe as the Model 3.

EDIT: Might have remembered that wrong... might have been additional PHEV models rather than pure BEV.

Bigus

bk wrote: »

Sure, BMW does EV's, but they seem to be slow to want to really take it seriously and do what needs to be done to really compete with the Model 3 and that is come out with a ground up, normal looking, BEV 3 series.

Of course they could completely surprise us all and suddenly come out with a very nice BEV 3 series out of nowhere.

However a reminder that Nokia was once the leader of mobile phones, it even had many smart phones, including touch screen ones, long before the iPhone. Look where they are today.

BMW have to be very careful or they might lose their mindshare as a leader and innovator of their segment. Disruption can be a bitch.

Somebody in the new technology finance world said the main BMW shareholders (Quandts I believe ) should take off with the. " I "division and sell off main BMW brand .

however , I also,thought Ford were right to sell Jaguar Land Rover, before they posted a billion pound annual profit, for Tata.

But one thing is for sure, EV s are going to become very very generic , and people won't care whether they're driving a Merc or a Megane, it'll be just like whitegoods, with the odd Miele amongst the main sellers (made in the same factory)

cros13

unkel wrote: »

I doubt they are not seeing the Model 3 coming and the implications on their low to mid level ICE sales if they don't have something similar.

Their official line is the next BEV is the Mini EV in 2019 and a new BMWi vehicle in 2021.
Unofficially (and initially without the support of the BMW board) Plan B is a BEV 3-series and and electric X3 in 2019.

The problem is that the batteries to produce those vehicles won't be available in the quantities needed. BMW's traditional supplier is Samsung SDI, who have a new plant being built in Hungary, however the production capacity of the new plant maxes out at ~100,000 30-40kWh vehicle pack equivalents per year for ALL automakers in europe supplied by SDI. LG Chem is in exactly the same position, with their new plant in Poland maxing out at similar production numbers.

This is one of those fail to plan, plan to fail situations. BMW, Jaguar Land Rover et. al. have made the assumption that batteries will be available on the free market when they need them, because:
1. they've never had a situation where a primary component of the car like this was outsourced and difficult to scale production of.
2. they've assumed their suppliers will have capacity when they neither have the capital to build out the factories required nor the will to after the 2009 oversupply/overbuild debacle (that almost sent all the lithium ion manufacturers into bankruptcy, see a123 systems et al).

Daimler has cottoned on to the reality of the situation and is building their own factories. So has VW... belatedly. But both of those won't see volume cell production until after 2020.

And this is where Tesla and Panasonic's Gigafactory bet pays off....

isnottheword

cros13 wrote: »

This is one of those fail to plan, plan to fail situations. BMW, Jaguar Land Rover et. al. have made the assumption that batteries will be available on the free market when they need them, because:
1. they've never had a situation where a primary component of the car like this was outsourced and difficult to scale production of.
2. they've assumed their suppliers will have capacity when they neither have the capital to build out the factories required nor the will to after the 2009 oversupply/overbuild debacle (that almost sent all the lithium ion manufacturers into bankruptcy, see a123 systems et al).

Daimler has cottoned on to the reality of the situation and is building their own factories. So has VW... belatedly. But both of those won't see volume cell production until after 2020.

And this is where Tesla and Panasonic's Gigafactory bet pays off....

Interesting post. Ghosn/Nissan take a different view - albeit for different rationale here. The jist of it being his suggestion that they've been unable to make batteries in-house competitively by comparison with outsourced specialist suppliers i.e. LG Chem, Samsung, Panasonic, etc. He's suggesting that Tesla's Giga Factory will end up in the same pickle.

Time will tell...

Soarer

Just had a Tesla rep cold-call to the office there with a Model X 90D. Didn't get a spin or anything. Just lots of poking around and button pushing!

Nice yoke.

KCross

isnottheword wrote: »

The jist of it being his suggestion that they've been unable to make batteries in-house competitively by comparison with outsourced specialist suppliers i.e. LG Chem, Samsung, Panasonic, etc. He's suggesting that Tesla's Giga Factory will end up in the same pickle.

Time will tell...

I thought the Tesla factory will have panasonic in-house. i.e. Tesla arent inventing their own battery.

They are just providing the funding/space/logistics etc for the factory and they will have control over their supply so they can forward plan and not be at the mercy of a 3rd party supplier for the key component of their cars.

isnottheword

KCross wrote: »

I thought the Tesla factory will have panasonic in-house. i.e. Tesla arent inventing their own battery.

They are just providing the funding/space/logistics etc for the factory and they will have control over their supply so they can forward plan and not be at the mercy of a 3rd party supplier for the key component of their cars.

Yes, I pondered that too. I remember viewing a youtube'd tour of the gigafactory - and remember that it was designed that at a certain point, panasonics work tumbles along the production line at a point where Tesla work on the product further.
Nissan had gone into a joint venture with NEC. Not sure to what extent the scenarios are similar??

KCross

Here is the link that confirms its panasonic tech inside the factory...
https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/gigafactory

Not sure what Ghosn is on about... not that his opinion matters as much anymore since he is stepping down from Nissan-Renault as CEO.

bk

Yes, I'm sure BMW are working on a BEV 3 series, but as cros13 points out, it all comes down to the logistics of battery manufacturing.

While I'm sure BMW could have a test model of this car in the next year or so, I see no indications that they will be able to build one in the large quantities to truly compete with the Model 3. Tesla seem to have a big head start on this.

Remember Nokia was only two years behind Apple, but look how that ended up. Of course the automobile industry operates over much longer periods.

I do think BMW will pull true and it is one of the ICE players that is most likely to survive this transition. But I do think they are in for a world of hurt with the Model 3 and will suffer a great deal of disruption. I wouldn't like to hold shares in them during this transition.

Just how Samsung managed to survive the smartphone transition and actually went from number 2 (back in the Nokia days) to number 1 today (by volume, but WAY behind apple on profit). They survived and now are prospering, but it was an incredibly painful 10 years for them.

Padraig Mor

Feck! Only found out today that Tesla were doing test drives in Cork for the last few days - down the road from me and all!

xCiaránx

I feel your pain, I missed out on a Model S test drive when they were at Clontarf Castle, but since I'm nearby I still popped down to have a look at the things.

Scottie99

Check out their website. They're often in Dublin now...

Shefwedfan

Tesla X over in Clayton beside Sandymount buiness park, didn't even realise what it was plugged in to charge point till I seen the rep up stairs

Loads of people doing test drives

cros13

Birdhill supercharger got planning:

http://www.eplanning.ie/TipperaryCC/AppFileRefDetails/16601072/0

Ballacolla has planning permission since last month. Both will be eight bay superchargers (FYI ESB... that's how it's done).

Looks like Birdhill will be first... it's now shown as "Opening Soon" on the supercharger map.

KCross

cros13 wrote: »

Birdhill supercharger got planning:

http://www.eplanning.ie/TipperaryCC/AppFileRefDetails/16601072/0

Ballacolla has planning permission since last month. Both will be eight bay superchargers (FYI ESB... that's how it's done).

Looks like Birdhill will be first... it's now shown as "Opening Soon" on the supercharger map.

What level of power will the Irish sites have available to them?

I presume the 8 bays load balance the total energy available?

What are there superchargers rated to deliver? Are they 350kW?

What kW do the Tesla's currently take?

thelikelylad

Signage going up in Sandyford!

http://imgur.com/a/x1P1S