Tesla Model 3

cnocbui

unkel wrote: »

That's an article from CNBC with some headlines of the AAA report. It has no details whatsoever about the report itself. Googled and found several other "news" articles saying about the same thing. None have details and none link to the AAA report that they are quoting.

Can't find the AAA report myself either. I don't believe the average range of EVs drops by over 40% in -7C weather. This is not in line with the many videos from Nyland in Norway in similar and often even much colder temps

I call BS until I at least read this detailed AAA test...

Here is the report: https://publicaffairsresources.aaa.biz/download/13244/

Wasn't hard to find.

Mike9832

Charges at 117kW on CCS, nice

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-charges-at-117-kw-on-ccs/

cnocbui

ted1 wrote: »

That’s also using air conditioning.

I got the impression that the use of air conditioner referred to the tests in hot weather, where the AAA found a 17% drop in range, not the cold weather tests.

Australia just had a heat wave where temperatures in places reached 49°C. Driving a car when it's 45° C is unpleasant and even with the AC on it's no picnic as it doesn't really have the ability to cool the seats, glass metal, plastics and incoming air that are all at 45°C.

unkel

cnocbui wrote: »

Here is the report: https://publicaffairsresources.aaa.biz/download/13244/

Wasn't hard to find.

Thanks!

I'll have a read of it tomorrow. I just opened it to scroll down the pages and the first paragraph I happened to read was somewhere in the middle and it relates to the Leaf:

"The total DC discharge energy was reduced at an ambient temperature of 20°F; this will consequently
result in a reduction of driving range. Compared to 75°F, the combined driving range and equivalent fuel
economy at 20°F decreased by 15 miles"

So a decrease in range of about 10%? That's pretty ok, my own car, a Hyundai Ioniq EV (not in that test) suffers a lot worse than that. But no where near the claimed average deterioration of 40%. How did they get to that figure???

Maybe I should read the article first before commenting, dunno.

liamog

The forty percent comes from the air conditioning/heating. Makes sense and matches what I see with the e-Up. The resistive heater in that really kills the range on cold days.

HVAC use results in significant reductions of driving range and equivalent fuel economy.
a. On average, HVAC use at 20F (-6.6c) resulted in a 41 percent decrease of combined driving range and a 39 percent decrease of combined equivalent fuel economy (when compared to testing conducted at 75F (24c).
b. On average, an ambient temperature of 95F(35c) resulted in a 17 percent decrease of combined driving range and an 18 percent decrease of combined equivalent fuel economy (when compared to testing conducted at 75F(24c)).

unkel

You will have seen HVAC take 7kW in Ioniq, so indeed if that was constant it would take a very significant bite out of the range. But as soon as the car is warmed up, this drops to no more than about 1-2kW, taking maybe 5-10% range away max. And if you program the car to preheat at night rate, there is no initial range loss either of that order

The only other range loss then is because of the colder operating temperature of the battery. And overall, I had a range of 201km this morning. On the coldest day of the year that was 190km In the hot summer of last year I got up to 240km. So I guess a drop of (240-190)/240 = 20% drop between best day of the year and worst day of the year...

liamog

That's it, they found from a baseline range of X at 24c


Without HVAC
- 12% drop in range at -6.6C
- 4% drop in range at 35C


With HVAC
- 41% drop in range at -6.6C
- 17% drop in range at 35C

KCross

A big consideration here is that EV's dont use the efficienct heat pump at those temps (as they just dont really work) so it is dependent entirely on resistive heating.

ICE has a considerable advantage in these conditions as it has an abundance of waste heat from the engine that can be directed to the cabin without affecting its range.

EV's have to sacrifice range to heat the cabin (except for cabin pre-heating of course).

The HVAC on/off scenarios show that.


Does it matter... no, unless you live in those conditions, which we dont.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

A big consideration here is that EV's dont use the efficienct heat pump at those temps (as they just dont really work) so it is dependent entirely on resistive heating.

Either way, the EV is warmed up from the charger by the time you drive off, and once at the required temp, the heater really doesn't use all that much power (so you don't lose a lot of range)

I can imagine a very big drop in range if you'd drive an EV in extreme heat (>40C) and want to keep the cabin a cool 18C or so. They didn't test that, did they? Also not very relevant in Ireland though...

KCross

unkel wrote: »

Either way, the EV is warmed up from the charger by the time you drive off, and once at the required temp, the heater really doesn't use all that much power (so you don't lose a lot of range)

In Ireland!

At -6 it is going to be different.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

In Ireland!

At -6 it is going to be different.

Not sure if that's true. It will take some effort to heat the cabin up from -6C to 23C but once at that temp (with at least one person in the car), to keep 23C doesn't take that much

From my own observations on the coldest day this winter a few weeks ago (-4C iirc): Ioniq uses 7kW to warm up the cabin, then takes 1-2kW to keep warm

KCross

unkel wrote: »

Not sure if that's true. It will take some effort to heat the cabin up from -6C to 23C but once at that temp (with at least one person in the car), to keep 23C doesn't take that much

From my own observations on the coldest day this winter a few weeks ago (-4C iirc): Ioniq uses 7kW to warm up the cabin, then takes 1-2kW to keep warm

So, whats your explanation for their findings then?

liamog

Most domestic heat pumps still have a COP above 2 at -10C any reason the ones in cars would be less capable of dealing with low temperatures.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

So, whats your explanation for their findings then?

I don't know. I'll admit I haven't read the test in detail. And I only have experience of power use by the HVAC system and effects on range in cold weather in my car, an Ioniq, which was strangely not one of the cars tested...

KCross

liamog wrote: »

Most domestic heat pumps still have a COP above 2 at -10C any reason the ones in cars would be less capable of dealing with low temperatures.

Not any HP I've ever heard of.

Good ones have a COP around 4-6 in warm temps.

The less efficient ones (which EV's have) are typically less than that and significantly less than that below 5ºC as thats when the moisture in the air will freeze and you have to use energy to defrost the Heat Pump coils. At that point they just dont use the HP at all and revert to resistive heating which is a COP of ~1.

I doubt any air based Heat pump(EV or domestic) is getting a COP of 2 at -10ºC

KCross

unkel wrote: »

It will take some effort to heat the cabin up from -6C to 23C but once at that temp (with at least one person in the car), to keep 23C doesn't take that much

From my own observations on the coldest day this winter a few weeks ago (-4C iirc): Ioniq uses 7kW to warm up the cabin, then takes 1-2kW to keep warm

I wonder how much that actually is, in kWh's.
kW's dont tell you much when you dont know how long it takes!

I know my cabin pre-heating could run for 30+mins but I havent worked out the total consumption.... must do that as I have a meter on the charge point so could see exactly if I took before/after readings.

ELM327

KCross wrote: »

I wonder how much that actually is, in kWh's.
kW's dont tell you much when you dont know how long it takes!

I know my cabin pre-heating could run for 30+mins but I havent worked out the total consumption.... must do that as I have a meter on the charge point so could see exactly if I took before/after readings.

Mine is running at 6kW for the first 10-15 minutes , then 1-2kW for the next 10 minutes then reduces to about 0.7-1.4kW on an ongoing basis.
If I preheat the car it goes straight to 0.7-1.4KW on an ongoing basis.


If I therefore hypothesise that the cost to heat the car (excluding the flatline required to maintain base temp) is (12.5/60)*(5)+(10/60)*(0.5) or approx 1.12kWh.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

I don't know. I'll admit I haven't read the test in detail. And I only have experience of power use by the HVAC system and effects on range in cold weather in my car, an Ioniq, which was strangely not one of the cars tested...

FYI: The report gives no mention of cabin pre-heating. It says the car is left for 15hrs+ at the tested temp prior to the test starting so the EV is on the back foot from the start.

It would have been interesting if they included a test for cabin pre-heating for comparison.

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

Thanks!

I'll have a read of it tomorrow. I just opened it to scroll down the pages and the first paragraph I happened to read was somewhere in the middle and it relates to the Leaf:

"The total DC discharge energy was reduced at an ambient temperature of 20°F; this will consequently
result in a reduction of driving range. Compared to 75°F, the combined driving range and equivalent fuel
economy at 20°F decreased by 15 miles"

So a decrease in range of about 10%? That's pretty ok, my own car, a Hyundai Ioniq EV (not in that test) suffers a lot worse than that. But no where near the claimed average deterioration of 40%. How did they get to that figure???

Maybe I should read the article first before commenting, dunno.

My worst case winter range is 72.7% of my best case summer range in my Ioniq.
160km vs 220km respectively.


I think the AAA test is pretty accurate to be honest.
If you did my sum above in reverse, you'd say I lost 60km of range in the winter, which is 27.3%. Not far off 40% and to be honest I drive a lot more carefully in winter because, while I don't need 220km, I often am in low battery mode getting home with only 160km available.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

FYI: The report gives no mention of cabin pre-heating.

They might as well only have half charged the car. My prediction of the outcome of scientific testing is that the range would be reduced by 50% that way!

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Mine is running at 6kW for the first 10-15 minutes , then 1-2kW for the next 10 minutes then reduces to about 0.7-1.4kW on an ongoing basis.
If I preheat the car it goes straight to 0.7-1.4KW on an ongoing basis.


If I therefore hypothesise that the cost to heat the car (excluding the flatline required to maintain base temp) is (12.5/60)*(5)+(10/60)*(0.5) or approx 1.12kWh.

An interesting continuation of this line of thought, if it takes an average of 1kW to maintain 22 degrees when it is -2 out (ie you preheated the car and are only maintaining temp), and you can drive 160km at average speed of 70km/h, that means you have 2.29 hours at 1kW, or 2.29kWh (8% of SOC) battery used for heating and not range. Meaning that instead of 28kWh available you only have 25.7kWh. That would explain the winter range loss. And that in a nutshell is why winter range is crap in short range EVs

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

An interesting continuation of this line of thought, if it takes an average of 1kW to maintain 22 degrees when it is -2 out (ie you preheated the car and are only maintaining temp), and you can drive 160km at average speed of 70km/h, that means you have 2.29 hours at 1kW, or 2.29kWh (8% of SOC) battery used for heating and not range. Meaning that instead of 28kWh available you only have 25.7kWh. That would explain the winter range loss. And that in a nutshell is why winter range is crap in short range EVs

That is too simplistic, Li-ion batteries suffer a loss of capacity and performance at low temperatures, as do most other types.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

That is too simplistic, Li-ion batteries suffer a loss of capacity and performance at low temperatures, as do most other types.

Where's your maths and data based hypothesis, instead of "No they are crap"

creedp

KCross wrote: »

I wonder how much that actually is, in kWh's.
kW's dont tell you much when you dont know how long it takes!

I know my cabin pre-heating could run for 30+mins but I havent worked out the total consumption.... must do that as I have a meter on the charge point so could see exactly if I took before/after readings.

I preheat my car to 18c each morning (don't like a hot car) and the chargepoint reports consumption of between 0.7 and 0.9kw. Now my car is in a garage so slightly warmer than external temperatures.

liamog

cnocbui wrote: »

That is too simplistic, Li-ion batteries suffer a loss of capacity and performance at low temperatures, as do most other types.

And thanks to the study we can see what that impact is, at -6.6C 12%.

pdpmur

KCross wrote: »

Not any HP I've ever heard of.

Good ones have a COP around 4-6 in warm temps.

The less efficient ones (which EV's have) are typically less than that and significantly less than that below 5ºC as thats when the moisture in the air will freeze and you have to use energy to defrost the Heat Pump coils. At that point they just dont use the HP at all and revert to resistive heating which is a COP of ~1.

I doubt any air based Heat pump(EV or domestic) is getting a COP of 2 at -10ºC

FYI

(Disclaimer: This is not a plug for any particular type of heat pump)

A client developer of mine commonly installs Dimplex A class air source heat pumps in new build s/d houses. The published information for this pump (to EN 14511) quotes the following:
Outside air temperature -7deg, heating water supply temperature 35deg, COP of between 2.9 and 3.0
Outside air temperature -7deg, heating water supply temperature 55deg, COP of between 2.1 and 2.1

So a COP of 2.0 at -10deg air temperature is not unreasonable. Proper placement and protection from wind blown rain, allied with normal defrost cycles deal with the issue of icing-up.

Obviously, the design parameters and constraints for a car system are quite different scenario to that of a house system, but the research and design effort that is now going into ev's will be evident in the next few years.

ted1

liamog wrote: »

And thanks to the study we can see what that impact is, at -6.6C 12%.

For cars being sold into countries with colder climates can they not just insulate the batteries ?
Problem solved

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

Where's your maths and data based hypothesis, instead of "No they are crap"

At colder temperatures, in particular, the internal components of a lithium battery become more resistant to passing current.
"The flow of energy is reduced and you lose more capacity," Grewe said (chief engineer at the General Motors electric propulsion lab).
...
The Tesla Model S owners manual puts that simply, "In cold weather, some of the stored energy in the battery may not be available on your drive because the battery is too cold."
...
"regen" brakes are actually small generators. Kinetic energy gathered while slowing down is turned back into electric current and returned to the batteries. But those brake generators also lose efficiency the colder it gets.

Substantially reduced energy and power capabilities of lithium-ion cell operating at low temperatures pose a technical barrier
for market penetration of hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles.

For plug-in HEVs, batteries are required to function under unassisted operation, charge at−30◦C, and survive at − 46 ◦ C. For power assist HEVs, batteries should be able to deliver 5 kW cold-cranking power (three 2-s pulses, 10-s rests between) at − 30 ◦ C. 2

Much work has been conducted to improve performance and un- derstand the rate-limiting factors of Li-ion batteries at low tempera- tures. Due to the high freezing points of widely used carbonate-based solvents (EC, DMC), a prevalent area of research is to seek elec- trolytes with lower freezing point and higher conductivity.

Li-Ion Cell Operation at Low Temperatures
Yan Ji, Yancheng Zhang, and Chao-Yang Wang
Electrochemical Engine Center (ECEC) and Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, The Pennsylvania
State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA http://ecec.mne.psu.edu/Pubs/047304JES%202013.pdf

KCross

ted1 wrote: »

For cars being sold into countries with colder climates can they not just insulate the batteries ?
Problem solved

The batteries aren’t the primary issue. It’s the power to heat the cabin... well, that’s what the study says.

Sabre Man

UK to get Model 3 configurator within 2 months, Australia to follow
https://thedriven.io/2019/02/11/tesla-uk-model-3/

I wonder if the configurator will open to Ireland at the same time as the UK.

Mike9832

Sabre Man wrote: »

UK to get Model 3 configurator within 2 months, Australia to follow
https://thedriven.io/2019/02/11/tesla-uk-model-3/

I wonder if the configurator will open to Ireland at the same time as the UK.

Nice

A 192 Model 3 is a possibility for sure

Mec-a-nic

Sabre Man wrote: »

I wonder if the configurator will open to Ireland at the same time as the UK.

I'd reckon it's almost certain. The US factory will switch over to make a big batch of all-RHD models so it makes sense to cover the UK, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Australia and maybe even Japan.

If they only make premium/performance/AWD ones, then anyone who wants a 'cheaper' model would have to wait until the next batches (end 2019?).

embraer170

I might be totally wrong but I have the feeling the Model 3 is not selling like hotcakes in some European markets. The delivery time (for non reservation holders) has not changed since the configurator launched.

In Germany, €63,500 for the long-range with metallic pain and autopilot incl. the government subsidy is still quite a lot. The mid-range might bring that down by about €7000, but will that be enough?

Elon Must did hint at bring the mid-range to all markets by the middle of the year.
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-tesla-profitable-q4-mid-range-model-3-europe-china/

Shefwedfan

embraer170 wrote: »

I might be totally wrong but I have the feeling the Model 3 is not selling like hotcakes in some European markets. The delivery time (for non reservation holders) has not changed since the configurator launched.

In Germany, €63,500 for the long-range with metallic pain and autopilot incl. the government subsidy is still quite a lot. The mid-range might bring that down by about €7000, but will that be enough?

Elon Must did hint at bring the mid-range to all markets by the middle of the year.
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-tesla-profitable-q4-mid-range-model-3-europe-china/

Of course it is not going to sell like hot cakes. It's too expensive.

Most reservations got put down based on a price of 35k dollers. Not 60-70k euro

ted1

Mec-a-nic wrote: »

I'd reckon it's almost certain. The US factory will switch over to make a big batch of all-RHD models so it makes sense to cover the UK, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Australia and maybe even Japan.

If they only make premium/performance/AWD ones, then anyone who wants a 'cheaper' model would have to wait until the next batches (end 2019?).

Tax makes them to expensive, the RHD market won’t be able to afford them. It’s one if the reasons we get poverty specs. They need to ship the cheaper ones here.
Also ironically the price of petrol means the savings are higher here.

I put petrol in a rental car here today 32 litres for less than 15 euro. The places which can afford the bigger prices one have the cheapest fuel.

cnocbui

There isn't going to be a cheap model 3. The original price was predicated on a near fully autonomous factory, and so low wage costs. That has proven to be impossible, so the original price can't be met while making the company profitable.

Apparently total orders i Europe are around 20 K, which doesn't seem like very many:


https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-orders-europe-20000/

Mike9832

cnocbui wrote: »

Apparently total orders i Europe are around 20 K, which doesn't seem like very many:

What are you on about?

20k sold already

That will make it the best selling EV in Europe in 2019 by far

The best selling EV in 2018 in Europe was the Leaf at 33k

Tesla Model 3 will blow that figure away

Don't get ye guys sometimes

ted1

cnocbui wrote: »

There isn't going to be a cheap model 3. The original price was predicated on a near fully autonomous factory, and so low wage costs. That has proven to be impossible, so the original price can't be met while making the company profitable.

Apparently total orders i Europe are around 20 K, which doesn't seem like very many:


https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-orders-europe-20000/

They have a sub 35k one (after tax break etc ) they are getting closer.

liamog

Ok so an entry level Nissan Leaf is $22,490 after incentives, so that puts a Model 3 at 55% more than a Nissan Leaf. Entry level Model 3 at €45,000?

Shefwedfan

Mike9832 wrote: »

What are you on about?

20k sold already

That will make it the best selling EV in Europe in 2019 by far

The best selling EV in 2018 in Europe was the Leaf at 33k

Tesla Model 3 will blow that figure away

Don't get ye guys sometimes

20k car is a drop in the ocean for the amount of cars sold in Europe....this was supposed to be the car of the people. A cheap BEV to change the masses from combustion to electric


Clearly it isn't. It is a car that is for maybe 1-2% of the market.


What I would like to see is 200,000 electric cars sold in Europe in year 1, 400k in year 2 and 600k in year 3. Then it will make a dent.

Shefwedfan

https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-standard-model-3-battery-website-fans-panic/

Look like the Model 3 35k doller car is gone the way of the dodo.....

unkel

Tesla "after gas savings" pricing has always annoyed me. It's patronizing. And incorrect, given the figures are obviously dependent on your annual mileage. As well as your locale, world oil prices, etc. We can do our own sums, thanks, Tesla.

KCross

Shefwedfan wrote: »

https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-standard-model-3-battery-website-fans-panic/

Look like the Model 3 35k doller car is gone the way of the dodo.....

I wouldnt believe anything from that website!.... unless it suited my bias of course.

Shefwedfan

KCross wrote: »

I wouldnt believe anything from that website!.... unless it suited my bias of course.

When the Tesla "fanboy" website is concerned then you really know something is up

ELM327

Anyone expecting to buy a Tesla for $35k and then have grants and credits applied was and remains delusional.
The mid range RWD at $42k before tax credits is nearly $35k after grants and credits in most states so I think that's as far as it goes tbh

ted1

ELM327 wrote: »

Anyone expecting to buy a Tesla for $35k and then have grants and credits applied was and remains delusional.
The mid range RWD at $42k before tax credits is nearly $35k after grants and credits in most states so I think that's as far as it goes tbh

Mid, does imply that’s there’s a lower model. I’d hazard a guess and say they just took it down and will stick it up later. Perhaps the online availability is holding back sales of the mid

KCross

There's an outside chance he'll be able to declare his goal achieved in his China plant.

We wont be buying €35k Model 3's here.

Mike9832

ted1 wrote: »

Mid, does imply that’s there’s a lower model. I’d hazard a guess and say they just took it down and will stick it up later. Perhaps the online availability is holding back sales of the mid

Exactly

It will be out worldwide when VW etc have something to compete with it, sometime around 2021 lol

Tesla right now can sell every Model 3 they produce, what's the point releasing a standard Model 3 and kill margin when they have all below yet to be released

Tesla has many, many demand levers they can pull besides a cheaper base Model 3. These include, but are not limited to:
1 – Reintroducing the RWD Long Range
2 – Leasing
3 – New colors
4 – New autopilot hardware
5 – Reducing prices of existing options (IE, offer EAP for cheaper, which they already do in China)
6 – Expanding to more markets, IE, the RHD markets.
7 – Ludicrous Model 3
8 – Smart Air Suspension
9 – Even longer range Model 3

I could go on and on, but I think you might be getting the idea (and if you aren’t, I don’t know that another 9 would change that) – Tesla has endless demand levers they could be pulling. The fact that they have so many available that they aren’t touching indicates that demand is very strong without any of them.

embraer170

Mike9832 wrote: »

Exactly

It will be out worldwide when VW etc have something to compete with it, sometime around 2021 lol

Tesla right now can sell every Model 3 they produce, what's the point releasing a standard Model 3 and kill margin when they have all below yet to be released

Yet the delivery estimate for markets where the Model 3 is on sale in Europe is still March 2019, not changing at all since December.

In Germany if I want any of the Hyundai/Kia EVs, a Zoe or even a E-Tron, I probably will not get my hands on one before the end of the year.

I have no doubt Tesla has big sales potential but not at any price, especially with more real competitors coming on the market. Ludicrous mode, smart air suspension, cheaper options, new colours may expand the market for Tesla fanboys but not the normal premium car buyer.

hatrack

embraer170 wrote: »

Yet the delivery estimate for markets where the Model 3 is on sale in Europe is still March 2019, not changing at all since December.

In Germany if I want any of the Hyundai/Kia EVs, a Zoe or even a E-Tron, I probably will not get my hands on one before the end of the year.

I have no doubt Tesla has big sales potential but not at any price, especially with more real competitors coming on the market. Ludicrous mode, smart air suspension, cheaper options, new colours may expand the market for Tesla fanboys but not the normal premium car buyer.

I think the delay in receiving something like an E-Tron is purely down to production rather than any sort of high demand.

Tesla are producing 5,000 Model 3s a week. I doubt any of the other manufacturers are at anything like that.