Tesla Model 3

unkel

Autopilot set to 38km/h

Sabre Man

Elon has announced Tesla news on Thursday 2 PM. Will it be the standard range Model 3, deliveries to RHD countries, supercharger v3, new hardware or something completely different?

I'm leaning towards supercharger news.

ELM327

I predict nothing model 3 based. Either Model Y, or supercharger updates, or possibly (after the buzz around rivian) the tesla pickup

Sabre Man

ELM327 wrote: »

I predict nothing model 3 based. Either Model Y, or supercharger updates, or possibly (after the buzz around rivian) the tesla pickup

I doubt it's Model Y or any other new car. That'll most likely be a big event with lots of peeople from the press. As far as I know nobody has been invited to this.

ted1

When’s the semi due to start production?

Johnboy1951

unkel wrote: »

Tesla Model 3 manages over 1000km on one charge

Driven on autopilot on a track, unmanned :eek:

Video unavailable? Something the matter with the link?
I was able to access it here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chpy0Yz5eNs&t=19s

carloscorreia

Nice video comparing anual cost of petrol vs electricity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bIBs8GuUYY

ted1

carloscorreia wrote: »

Nice video comparing anual cost of petrol vs electricity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bIBs8GuUYY

Does it best resemblance to Irish costs ?

It’s 5.80USD a gallon here vs 2.50 over there

cnocbui

carloscorreia wrote: »

Nice video comparing anual cost of petrol vs electricity

The Irish have a thing about running/fuel costs. It completely blinds them to the truth, hence why diesels were so popular, even before Gormley all but outlawed petrol.

carloscorreia

ted1 wrote: »

Does it best resemblance to Irish costs ?

It’s 5.80USD a gallon here vs 2.50 over there

Of course not. I didn't mean to say the cost was applicable to ireland.
The video shows how energy efficient an EV car is compared to a ICE even in a country where petrol is very cheap. I thought it was interesting from a science/maths perspective :cool:

Johnboy1951

cnocbui wrote: »

The Irish have a thing about running/fuel costs. It completely blinds them to the truth, hence why diesels were so popular, even before Gormley all but outlawed petrol.

What truth were/are they blinded to?

cnocbui

When a significant portion of the world vehicle fleet becomes electric, I believe the price of petrol will decline considerably as the price of oil is going to take a tumble. I'm sure a lot of people believe the silly noises the UK has made about phasing out and banning ICE, but when push comes to shove and they look at the job losses entailed, they aren't going to make good on the rhetoric. If they are stupid enough to actually Brexit for real, they won't have the stomach far any further job losses.

Also, I anticipate the cost of electricity to rise substantially, particularly in this country. The government gets 10% of it's revenue from motorists. As electric vehicles increase as a percentage of the national fleet, the lost revenue will have to be made up somewhere. I don't believe the government will have the nerve to jack up vat to 30% or more.

The running cost's of EVs are pretty much irrelevant in the face of their high purchase costs. If they drop to nearer ICE prices, then it's a different story.

cnocbui

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

What truth were/are they blinded to?

The actual cost per km, factoring in the purchase price of the car. A model 3s running costs are irrelevant when it costs €63 K to buy. Before Gormly, petrol cars were cheaper to own than diesels because the cheaper diesel never made up for the higher purchase price, but the Irish mania for running costs saw them sell in droves, even though they were actually more expensive to own.

KCross

cnocbui wrote: »

Also, I anticipate the cost of electricity to rise substantially, particularly in this country. The government gets 10% of it's revenue from motorists. As electric vehicles increase as a percentage of the national fleet, the lost revenue will have to be made up somewhere. I don't believe the government will have the nerve to jack up vat to 30% or more.

Its too simplistic to just rise electricity costs to make up that shortfall. You'd be getting the poor to subsidise those that can afford cars. Wont and shouldnt happen.

The tax will have to be found elsewhere... VRT, motor tax, road pricing etc

cnocbui wrote: »

The running cost's of EVs are pretty much irrelevant in the face of their high purchase costs. If they drop to nearer ICE prices, then it's a different story.

You havent owned one then?
It doesnt make financial sense to buy an EV if you do below average mileage but the increased purchase cost is more than worth it for anyone doing above average and thats alot of people.

Leaf's, Ioniq's, Zoe's etc are not really that expensive if you are saving €2k+ on running costs per year.... the increased purchase cost isnt all foregone either, resale values have firmed up considerably in the last 2 years.

A €100k Tesla doesnt make much financial sense but neither does a €100k Merc, Audi etc. Thats just choice.

cnocbui

No I haven't owned an electric as my 14 year old ICE is still fine. My mileage is on the low side so electrics not for me.

You are right about the cost of luxury cars, of course, but I don't think that sort of buyer gives any consideration to running costs. Touting the running costs as some sort of benefit of owning something as expensive as Tesla seemed silly to me, so we appear to agree on that. I have better things to do with my money than spend it on motoring bling.

I ran the numbers for the Ioniq and the similar performance petrol I30 fastback, and given my electricity and petrol costs and assuming the Irish average of 17K Km per year, it takes just over 4 years to reach break even for the purchase price difference. I have to say that's not as bad as I had thought. So there is actually a cost saving after about 71,000 km.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

No I haven't owned an electric as my 14 year old ICE is still fine. My mileage is on the low side so electrics not for me.

You are right about the cost of luxury cars, of course, but I don't think that sort of buyer gives any consideration to running costs. Touting the running costs as some sort of benefit of owning something as expensive as Tesla seemed silly to me, so we appear to agree on that. I have better things to do with my money than spend it on motoring bling.

I ran the numbers for the Ioniq and the similar performance petrol I30 fastback, and given my electricity and petrol costs and assuming the Irish average of 17K Km per year, it takes just over 4 years to reach break even for the purchase price difference. I have to say that's not as bad as I had thought. So there is actually a cost saving after about 71,000 km.

Have you factored in depreciation difference?

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

Have you factored in depreciation difference?

No. What is it?

Johnboy1951

What the actual on going costs of running an electric vehicle, in the largest segment of the car market, will not be known for many years.
How will depreciation and trade-figures work out?
Will batteries need to be replaced and at what cost?
Will home chargers work out well for the majority?
When will we see the choice of vehicle in electric that we now see in ICE vehicles?

Until the buyer has a wide choice of saloon, hatchback and estate type vehicles, in various sizes and trim levels and of course purchase cost, we will not really know.

I do not see that happening for many years to come.
By then the present battery arrangement might well be replaced by the next generation of power storage, with unknown long term costs for some time afterwards.

The idea that I might have available to me a replacement for my near ~11 year old Skoda estate diesel, that will make economic sense to me, at some point in the near future, is not something I rely on.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

No. What is it?

If you used an Ioniq and an I30 fastback, the depreciation curves will be different.


If you allow
PC - Purchase Cost
FC -Fuel Cost
RP - Resale Price
DP - Depreciation.
MP - Monthly Payment



Then DP = (PC-RP)
And the cost of running the car is equal to (DP+FC+consumables eg tax/tolls)

cnocbui

Oh I know how to calculate it, it's just the depreciation curves you reference are an imponderable to me. My previous car I had for 11 years and my current one is at 13 years, so resale value isn't something I pay much attention to. I also buy for cash.

ted1

cnocbui wrote: »

When a significant portion of the world vehicle fleet becomes electric, I believe the price of petrol will decline considerably as the price of oil is going to take a tumble. I'm sure a lot of people believe the silly noises the UK has made about phasing out and banning ICE, but when push comes to shove and they look at the job losses entailed, they aren't going to make good on the rhetoric. If they are stupid enough to actually Brexit for real, they won't have the stomach far any further job losses.

Also, I anticipate the cost of electricity to rise substantially, particularly in this country. The government gets 10% of it's revenue from motorists. As electric vehicles increase as a percentage of the national fleet, the lost revenue will have to be made up somewhere. I don't believe the government will have the nerve to jack up vat to 30% or more.

The running cost's of EVs are pretty much irrelevant in the face of their high purchase costs. If they drop to nearer ICE prices, then it's a different story.

If it rises substantially then people will just get PV and batteries. To offset the price increase.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

Oh I know how to calculate it, it's just the depreciation curves you reference are an imponderable to me. My previous car I had for 11 years and my current one is at 13 years, so resale value isn't something I pay much attention to. I also buy for cash.

Well then you are not exactly a target market for buying a new ev so it's irrelevant.
Why are you polluting a thread about Teslas with bangers?

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

Well then you are not exactly a target market for buying a new ev so it's irrelevant.
Why are you polluting a thread about Teslas with bangers?

Is a one year old car considered a 'banger'? I have an interest in the Tesla 'phenomenon'.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

Is a one year old car considered a 'banger'? I have an interest in the Tesla 'phenomenon'.

Your car is 13 years old. Not the target market for a likely €45k-€50k EV.

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

Your car is 13 years old. Not the target market for a likely €45k-€50k EV.

You are really pushing it there and being deliberately obtuse.

Mike9832

cnocbui wrote: »

You are really pushing it there and being deliberately obtuse.

Not a first

Depreciation is a pointless argument too

Market is shifting

No one knows what an Ioniq will be worth in 2024

Could be a battery breakthrough announced next year that makes all low range EVs like Ioniq undesirable in 2024

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

You are really pushing it there and being deliberately obtuse.

OK, tell me the intersection between the market for a 13 year old car and the market for a 45k EV. How is that obtuse?

Mike9832 wrote: »

Not a first

Depreciation is a pointless argument too

Market is shifting

No one knows what an Ioniq will be worth in 2024

Could be a battery breakthrough announced next year that makes all low range EVs like Ioniq undesirable in 2024

Depreciation is the biggest cost of buying a new car. To say it is pointless is as ludicrous a point you have come out with in some times. As you say... not a first!

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

OK, tell me the intersection between the market for a 13 year old car and the market for a 45k EV. How is that obtuse?

Depreciation is the biggest cost of buying a new car. To say it is pointless is as ludicrous a point you have come out with in some times. As you say... not a first!

My car is 14 years old, I didn't buy it when it was 13 years old, I bought it when it was one year old, for cash - which is why I posed the question: "Is a one year old car considered a 'banger'? "

Prior to that I said I had had the car for 13 years, which should imply to anyone who gave it thought, that when I acquired it, it wasn't 13 years old. Even now, it's not a banger. NCT tester even said it was a lovely car and asked if I wanted to sell it.

Also, given a 14 year old car, logic might suggest I might be in the market for a new car sooner than someone with a one year old one.

Depreciation is why I buy near new cars, rather than new ones.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

My car is 14 years old, I didn't buy it when it was 13 years old, I bought it when it was one year old, for cash - which is why I posed the question: "Is a one year old car considered a 'banger'? "

Prior to that I said I had had the car for 13 years, which should imply to anyone who gave it thought, that when I acquired it, it wasn't 13 years old. Even now, it's not a banger. NCT tester even said it was a lovely car and asked if I wanted to sell it.

Also, given a 14 year old car, logic might suggest I might be in the market for a new car sooner than someone with a one year old one.

Depreciation is why I buy near new cars, rather than new ones.

Most people who buy new cars change at approximately 3 years.

People who buy "nearly new" (ie 7-24 months) would generally change every 5 years. (Data attained from statista). Your use case is not common and certainly not common at a €45k-€50k purchase price.


"Banger" meant old here and not derogation.

Mike9832

ELM327 wrote: »

OK, tell me the intersection between the market for a 13 year old car and the market for a 45k EV. How is that obtuse?






Depreciation is the biggest cost of buying a new car. To say it is pointless is as ludicrous a point you have come out with in some times. As you say... not a first!

Its impossible to predict

Why you think pcp deals are so bad?

An Ioniq has little depreciation now, but who knows in 5 years when u go to sell

A 180km Ioniq could be undesirable if 400-500km is the standard and being over produced like ICE is now

Supply cant meet demand now, that could change or it might not an Ioniq won't depreciate

ELM327

Mike9832 wrote: »

Its impossible to predict

Why you think pcp deals are so bad?

An Ioniq has little depreciation now, but who knows in 5 years when u go to sell

A 180km Ioniq could be undesirable if 400-500km is the standard and being over produced like ICE is now

Supply cant meet demand now, that could change or it might not an Ioniq won't depreciate

Have already sold mine so that's a moot point.


There is still a market for 100km EVs now when 400km is available. There will still be a market for 180km Ioniq (and 180km l40) when 500km is available.

josip

ELM327 wrote: »

Most people who buy new cars change at approximately 3 years.

People who buy "nearly new" (ie 7-24 months) would generally change every 5 years. (Data attained from statista). Your use case is not common and certainly not common at a €45k-€50k purchase price.

"Banger" meant old here and not derogation.

I'd be similar to cnocbui.
Buy new c.€35k, mind it for 10 years. Rinse and repeat.
My next car will be definitely an EV.
Just because we don't fit in some statisticians profiling, doesn't mean we're not customers.

ELM327

josip wrote: »

I'd be similar to cnocbui.
Buy new c.€35k, mind it for 10 years. Rinse and repeat.
My next car will be definitely an EV.
Just because we don't fit in some statisticians profiling, doesn't mean we're not customers.

You are both customers but statistics show the most common outcome, if you're trying to market to customers do you pick the most common scenario or do you pick 2 outliers on an Irish forum?

Mike9832

josip wrote: »

I'd be similar to cnocbui.
Buy new c.€35k, mind it for 10 years. Rinse and repeat.
My next car will be definitely an EV.
Just because we don't fit in some statisticians profiling, doesn't mean we're not customers.

Fair play i am the same actually

Have current car 11 years

House paid for with cash, car with cash, phone with cash, no debt

ELM is correct on the most common buyers I would say, most people I know driving new cars are up to eyeballs in debt

Mortgages, car loans, bill pay phones, personal loans etc

Mike9832

ELM327 wrote: »

There is still a market for 100km EVs now when 400km is available. There will still be a market for 180km Ioniq (and 180km l40) when 500km is available.

Not gonna argue, it could stay like that in 5 years

Who knows

KCross

You wont be able to predict diesel depreciation with any degree of certainty going forward either, as a simple stroke of a ministers pin could cause havoc overnight like the motor tax changes in '08.

Carbon taxes are on the way... its when, not if.

ted1

ELM327 wrote: »

Most people who buy new cars change at approximately 3 years.

People who buy "nearly new" (ie 7-24 months) would generally change every 5 years. (Data attained from statista). Your use case is not common and certainly not common at a €45k-€50k purchase price.


"Banger" meant old here and not derogation.

Cash buyers hold onto cars. Those who lease, HP etc tend to change as the monthly repayments don’t change to much

ELM327

ted1 wrote: »

Cash buyers hold onto cars. Those who lease, HP etc tend to change as the monthly repayments don’t change to much

True, but statistically the second far, far outweigh the first in sales numbers.

hatrack

Looks like the $35,000 Model 3 is finally launching.

bertie4evr

Nice timing, if the stock doesn't improve by tomorrow they owe 920 million dollars. Let's see how long until customers actually get the cheaper model.

hatrack

bertie4evr wrote: »

Nice timing, if the stock doesn't improve by tomorrow they owe 920 million dollars. Let's see how long until customers actually get the cheaper model.

Doesn’t matter what the stock is tomorrow - conversion price is based on last 20 days, not the final day alone.

Sabre Man

bertie4evr wrote: »

Nice timing, if the stock doesn't improve by tomorrow they owe 920 million dollars. Let's see how long until customers actually get the cheaper model.

They have enough cash at hand to pay it off.

bertie4evr

Sabre Man wrote: »

They have enough cash at hand to pay it off.

But I'm sure they'd like to not have to if they could avoid it.

Sabre Man

And the doubters said Tesla would never make it.

Mike9832

Sabre Man wrote: »

And the doubters said Tesla would never make it.

Fair play to them

Still have my 1k reservation for one after all these years

Hopefully 35k model will be available to us too

embraer170

Tesla will also be shutting most of its stores and shifting all sales online.

https://www.tesla.com/fr_FR/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now?redirect=no

Mike9832

Available next month

Go Tesla

hatrack

Mike9832 wrote: »

Available next month

Go Tesla

In California that is. It will be a long time before it’s available here.

Expect huge demand in US for the SR, this can only be bad news for RHD deliveries.

ted1

There’s a standard range plus available for 37k..

I reckon a lot will go for that.


Firmware upgrades to increase sped and distance of other versions.

Thought they might have changed the batteries in the x and s aswell

Mike9832

ted1 wrote: »

There’s a standard range plus available for 37k..

I reckon a lot will go for that.

Me too

More range more bhp

Whats great about Tesla is the private network

Dublin - Limerick etc well covered and not have to rely on crap ESB chargers

Delighted now

Thought Tesla were screwed tbh, didn't think they would ever make a 35k model anytime soon