Tesla Model 3

unkel

jarrieta wrote: »

I still have my reservation for Model 3 but not sure what to do with it, will wait until delivery and prices are unveiled here

FWIW it looks like in the EU LHD countries the reservation was pretty meaningless. The first ship full of Model 3 only landed a week ago or so and you can already order a car coming in about two months on the next ship. Without ever having had a reservation.

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

FWIW it looks like in the EU LHD countries the reservation was pretty meaningless. The first ship full of Model 3 only landed a week ago or so and you can already order a car coming in about two months on the next ship. Without ever having had a reservation.

This is why I cancelled my reservation. Still intend buying a model 3 but a) on my terms and b) since RHD is going to be the last thing added, I don't see no reservation being an issue.


Wonder what the LR RWD model will cost here. That's the one to have IMO, you don't need AWD in Ireland (and I live out the sticks).

aliveandkicking

unkel wrote: »

FWIW it looks like in the EU LHD countries the reservation was pretty meaningless. The first ship full of Model 3 only landed a week ago or so and you can already order a car coming in about two months on the next ship. Without ever having had a reservation.

Agree with you about reservations not being important especially if you're going for higher end end models. It'll be the same for Model Y. Reservations pointless outside of US market. Just a small point though. There have already been 4 ships of Model 3s into Zeebrugge since the beginning of February, another 2 due this week and 2 more by the end of the month. They're coming in at a rate of almost 1 shipful a week.

grogi

unkel wrote: »

FWIW it looks like in the EU LHD countries the reservation was pretty meaningless. The first ship full of Model 3 only landed a week ago or so and you can already order a car coming in about two months on the next ship. Without ever having had a reservation.

With that thinking I have cancelled my reservation months ago. By the time the RHD lowerish spec will be available, it will be easily available as well.

username?!

Will we see RHD 3's in Ireland this year?

No wonder Tesla is loosing money on Q1. Lots of cars in transit to Europe and China but not been paid for yet. The Q2 should be back to normal, i.e. the new normal of Q3/Q4 2018.

KCross

That and the ~$1b in repayments they had to make.

grogi

KCross wrote: »

That and the ~$1b in repayments they had to make.

Repayments don't affect profitability.

cnocbui

samih wrote: »

No wonder Tesla is loosing money on Q1. Lots of cars in transit to Europe and China but not been paid for yet. The Q2 should be back to normal, i.e. the new normal of Q3/Q4 2018.

Tesla normal is to lose money and not make a profit, so yeah, expect more of the same.

Sabre Man

username?! wrote: »

Will we see RHD 3's in Ireland this year?

Probably around September I think.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Tesla normal is to lose money and not make a profit, so yeah, expect more of the same.

Not the old normal but the new normal which is actual profits as you no doubt know. The cars have been profitable for quite some time but due to massive investments back to the company the net result has been negative most quarters throughout the history of Tesla.

It could also be that Tesla is planning to just become another VW i.e. continue to borrow even more money to ensure they can keep investing on the new gigafactories.

cnocbui

samih wrote: »

Not the old normal but the new normal which is actual profits as you no doubt know. The cars have been profitable for quite some time but due to massive investments back to the company the net result has been negative most quarters throughout the history of Tesla.

It could also be that Tesla is planning to just become another VW i.e. continue to borrow even more money to ensure they can keep investing on the new gigafactories.

Tesla have never been profitable and the chances of them becoming so are even less with the recent price cuts. I really don't know where you are getting the idea that I ought to think they are currently profitable from. Show me the industry commentators who believe a $35,000 model 3 can be made for a profit. Tesla employ 15,000 for a 'projected' output of 500,000 vehicles this year - which I don't believe they will achieve. Nissan in the US make 640,000 cars using 8,000 employees. Tesla seem to be the least efficient N. American car manufacturer by far. Their defect rate and warranty costs are far too high for them to make a profit, even if they were efficient enough to do so.

ELM327

grogi wrote: »

Repayments don't affect profitability.

+1
Important difference between liquidity/cash flow and profitability.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

Tesla have never been profitable and the chances of them becoming so are even less with the recent price cuts. I really don't know where you are getting the idea that I ought to think they are currently profitable from. Show me the industry commentators who believe a $35,000 model 3 can be made for a profit. Tesla employ 15,000 for a 'projected' output of 500,000 vehicles this year - which I don't believe they will achieve. Nissan in the US make 640,000 cars using 8,000 employees. Tesla seem to be the least efficient N. American car manufacturer by far. Their defect rate and warranty costs are far too high for them to make a profit, even if they were efficient enough to do so.

3 profitable quarters so far.

cnocbui

ELM327 wrote: »

3 profitable quarters so far.

Those anomalies weren't even in the same year. There is scant prospect of them making an annual profit this year.

ted1

cnocbui wrote: »

Tesla have never been profitable and the chances of them becoming so are even less with the recent price cuts. I really don't know where you are getting the idea that I ought to think they are currently profitable from. Show me the industry commentators who believe a $35,000 model 3 can be made for a profit. Tesla employ 15,000 for a 'projected' output of 500,000 vehicles this year - which I don't believe they will achieve. Nissan in the US make 640,000 cars using 8,000 employees. Tesla seem to be the least efficient N. American car manufacturer by far. Their defect rate and warranty costs are far too high for them to make a profit, even if they were efficient enough to do so.

Tesla make most things themselves. Comparing to Nissan you would have to look at how much employees Nissan suppliers have. Seats manufacturer etc
So it’s not straight forward.

Also how many if that 15,000 are working in the energy part of the company

ted1

cnocbui wrote: »

Those anomalies weren't even in the same year. There is scant prospect of them making an annual profit this year.

You pay tax on profits.... is always take losses with a pinch of salt

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Those anomalies weren't even in the same year. There is scant prospect of them making an annual profit this year.

2018 Q3 and Q4 were both profitable and in the same year. For Q1-> Tesla has started to build new factory in China for Model 3 so that *investment* will probably sufficiently eat into the profits this year to make the 2019 loss making. Maybe. But it will allow Tesla to move production of cheaper Model 3 to China reducing costs and also free enough capacity in Frement to start procution of Modell Y.

ELM327

cnocbui wrote: »

Those anomalies weren't even in the same year. There is scant prospect of them making an annual profit this year.

Hardly anomalies, when they were 2 times last year profitable out of 4 quarters.


If they had not scaled up to M3 production they could have remained profitable as a luxury marque... but as you know this is not the aim.


Sometimes the posting here of the anti-tesla folks borders on the ridiculous.

Mec-a-nic

ted1 wrote: »

Tesla make most things themselves. Comparing to Nissan you would have to look at how much employees Nissan suppliers have. Seats manufacturer etc So it’s not straight forward.

Exactly this. When Brexit did for Honda in the UK last month, the 3,400 direct 'lost' jobs rose to ~10,000 once suppliers jobs were added up.

I have an annoying habit of listening to independent experts and for the Model 3, Munro Inc, whose expertise is costing the manufacturing of automobiles stated: "the base $35,000 Model 3 can hit an 18 percent gross margin from the Fremont factory... <and> the big-battery variants could achieve over 30 percent margins." Tesla has a huge target on its back from shorters and the millions working with ICE cars, but they do appear to be ploughing their cash into expansion.

Mike9832

cnocbui wrote: »

Those anomalies weren't even in the same year. There is scant prospect of them making an annual profit this year.

Love these posts

Questioning a now 50 billion startup

Startup!

Sales

2007 - 73 thousand dollars
2017 - 11.8 billion dollars
2018 - 21.5 billion dollars

Wish the experts would give it a rest

Maybe startup your own electric car company if you think you can do better

MrMusician18

Mike9832 wrote: »

Love these posts

Questioning a now 50 billion startup

Startup!

Sales

2007 - 73 thousand dollars
2017 - 11.8 billion dollars
2018 - 21.5 billion dollars

Wish the experts would give it a rest

Maybe startup your own electric car company if you think you can do better

Another "startup" (well it was as much a startup then as Tesla is now) had sales of $100bn in 2000, and was bankrupt by the end of 2001. Sales are not even half the story and in isolation are nothing more than a perhaps impressive yet meaningless number.

(The company was Enron btw)

cnocbui

Mike9832 wrote: »

Love these posts

Questioning a now 50 billion startup

Startup!

Sales

2007 - 73 thousand dollars
2017 - 11.8 billion dollars
2018 - 21.5 billion dollars

Wish the experts would give it a rest

Maybe startup your own electric car company if you think you can do better

And even doubling sales from 2017 to 2018 they still manage to lose money!

Tesla annual losses:
2018: $0.98 billion
2017: $1.96 billion
2016: $0.67 billion
2015: $0.89 billion
2014: $0.29 billion
2013: $0.07 billion
2012: $0.40 billion
2011: $0.25 billion
2010: $0.15 billion
2009: $0.06 billion
2008: $0.08 billion
2007: $0.08 billion
total: $5.89 bn

11 years of loses and it's still a start-up? Since Elon made his surprise - you're fired - announcement 5 days ago. The share price has plummeted 15 % That is pretty indicative that the market consensus is that the announcement of a $35,000 model 3 was not a positive one for the company's prospects.

How can people ignore the incredible churn of Tesla's senior management? These are insiders who are intimately familiar with the company. Given the usual US incentive of stock options, you would think if they thought the company had enormous potential and rosy prospects they would count their blessings they were on board the space ship and would hang on tightly for the ride to making themselves incredibly wealthy. The only place in the US with a worse revolving door culture is the White House, due to the moron in charge. Revolving doors are indicative of serious problems.

The Chief Accounting Officer came on board in 2018 and then ran out the door only one month later. If that doesn't give you a hint there is a problem with the companies finances, what would?

slicedpanman

when you make Thierry look like the voice of reason you really are in trouble

ted1

cnocbui wrote: »

And even doubling sales from 2017 to 2018 they still manage to lose money!




11 years of loses and it's still a start-up? Since Elon made his surprise - you're fired - announcement 5 days ago. The share price has plummeted 15 % That is pretty indicative that the market consensus is that the announcement of a $35,000 model 3 was not a positive one for the company's prospects.

How can people ignore the incredible churn of Tesla's senior management? These are insiders who are intimately familiar with the company. Given the usual US incentive of stock options, you would think if they thought the company had enormous potential and rosy prospects they would count their blessings they were on board the space ship and would hang on tightly for the ride to making themselves incredibly wealthy. The only place in the US with a worse revolving door culture is the White House, due to the moron in charge. Revolving doors are indicative of serious problems.

The Chief Accounting Officer came on board in 2018 and then ran out the door only one month later. If that doesn't give you a hint there is a problem with the companies finances, what would?

You need to align their losses with their capital expenditure. Losses don’t mean much.

slave1

I worked for a big PLC for 13years, in those 13years it never made a profit, losses every single year but it was a capital intensive/cash positive company.

Losses are one element, investment and cashflow are (arguably) much better long term indicators, share prices are indicative of future cash flows and not past performance.

Anyhow, way OT....any M3 news?

ELM327

slicedpanman wrote: »

when you make Thierry look like the voice of reason you really are in trouble

I'm thankful someone said it and I'm thankful it wasnt me.

ted1 wrote: »

You need to align their losses with their capital expenditure. Losses don’t mean much.

I think someone needs to understand the difference between "losses" and profitability.
Profitability in your accounts if you could have made a "loss" is bad accounting.


Most of the losses above are probably ammortization and capital expenditure. On an operational (ie opex+cos vs revenue) perspective Tesla are very profitable.

ted1

ted1 wrote: »

You need to align their losses with their capital expenditure. Losses don’t mean much.

Exactly. Also if you make the investements to relevant technology and not a dead end products like a factory to build small diesel engines for city cars. As far as I see Tesla has definitely gotten the balance right although they constantly seem to be on the limit of how quickly you can come up with the new stuff.

By end of 2019 they will have manufacturing capacity to build half a million expensiveish->expensive but not outrageously so cars and battery packs for them annually. 2020 will be good one for Tesla with the next high volume car, which is Model Y, ramping up.

Once the volume cars are happening at steady rate of production Tesla will have plenty of cash to invest on new production facilities for the pickup, semi and the Roadster. The latter will probably be built at Frement or Nevada though. They'll continue to keep borrowing money to expedite the new products and facities as keeping the profits probably costs more than interest rates from borrowing and this allows for more new products and higher volumes than would be possible with just investing the profits.

Sabre Man

Faster supercharging for Model 3
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-v3-details-250kw-charge-speed/

sk8board

Tesla have succeeded in creating the market, did all the heavy lifting for battery R&D over the past 15 years - the race now is to deliver a quality hatchback with 750km of range and costing €25-30k.

It seems unlikely right now that car will be a Tesla, due to their capacity, quality and pricing constraints for most consumers, but it will probably come from Asia.
Re-tooling an engine factory isn’t that difficult in terms of the capital cost of building and resourcing it to deliver consistent capacity and quality. Manufacturers retool factories all the time.

If the Model 3 pricing costs €70K+ here in Ireland, as seems likely now that the European RHD pricing is €60k+, how many people will be buying it over a 320d?

grogi

sk8board wrote: »

Tesla have succeeded in creating the market, did all the heavy lifting for battery R&D over the past 15 years - the race now is to deliver a quality hatchback with 750km of range and costing €25-30k.

Nobody will be selling 750km for €30k, forget about that. You'll get this kind of range only in luxury vehicles.

For the masses you'll have ranges of ~250km (40kWh battery) to ~500km (80kWh). There is absolutely no point in inflating the costs by putting a bigger battery in das Auto.

Sabre Man

sk8board wrote: »

If the Model 3 pricing costs €70K+ here in Ireland, as seems likely now that the European RHD pricing is €60k+, how many people will be buying it over a 320d?

They're not selling the $35.000 base version in Europe yet. What's the price range for a 320d?

ted1

sk8board wrote: »

Tesla have succeeded in creating the market, did all the heavy lifting for battery R&D over the past 15 years - the race now is to deliver a quality hatchback with 750km of range and costing €25-30k.

It seems unlikely right now that car will be a Tesla, due to their capacity, quality and pricing constraints for most consumers, but it will probably come from Asia.
Re-tooling an engine factory isn’t that difficult in terms of the capital cost of building and resourcing it to deliver consistent capacity and quality. Manufacturers retool factories all the time.

If the Model 3 pricing costs €70K+ here in Ireland, as seems likely now that the European RHD pricing is €60k+, how many people will be buying it over a 320d?

The 35kUSD version won’t cost €70K+ here

ELM327

ted1 wrote: »

The 35kUSD version won’t cost €70K+ here

Considering I just got an email from Tesla telling me the new Irish price for the model S was €80k now... I can't see the base model 3 being much more than half that, + ~5k.

jarrieta

ELM327 wrote: »

Considering I just got an email from Tesla telling me the new Irish price for the model S was €80k now... I can't see the base model 3 being much more than half that, + ~5k.

OT, I have this in my browser for the last week https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/new/5YJSB7E29JF235893 playing lotto...

ELM327

Cheeky of them advertising it excl VRT

Mike9832

Model 3 tech is looking more amazing by the day

250kW charging, thats crazy

Its now able to preheat the battery on arrival to a supercharger so fastest charge rate is always possible, no more cold or too hot battery

With its Ioniq efficiency @ 120kmh

150 km top up charge

145kW ( supercharger v2) = 12 ish mins
250kW ( supercharger v3, maybe on Ionity) = 8 ish mins

I was anti EV for a long time,

200kW+ charge rate in an efficient 300bhp EV, with 400km of range for 40k is game changing

Honestly thought it would be 2025 before we saw that tech at that price

ELM327

Tesla always said the limit at Ionity was the car and not the charger.
I'd suggest for cars that have the software upgrade (model 3), that the speed at Ionity chargers that are capable of it will also increase to 250kW.

What a car, and available for below $30k in the US with tax rebates. This is awesome. I was already a tesla fanboy but now I'm drinking the kool aid.

SleetAndSnow

Was looking at the eniro with my dad and we were planning on trading in the Octavia for it, but if the model 3 is coming like that.. do they do trade ins? I wouldn’t assume so since no garages right? So you have to sell privately? (Noob Tesla person and new to electric market sorry haha)

Edit: just saw they do trade ins! Now this is interesting

Gumbo

ELM327 wrote: »

Tesla always said the limit at Ionity was the car and not the charger.
I'd suggest for cars that have the software upgrade (model 3), that the speed at Ionity chargers that are capable of it will also increase to 250kW.

What a car, and available for below $30k in the US with tax rebates. This is awesome. I was already a tesla fanboy but now I'm drinking the kool aid.

I already have plans to use the profit from the Leaf as a deposit for an M3 and then sell the I3 in 2 years for an M3

Sabre Man

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Was looking at the eniro with my dad and we were planning on trading in the Octavia for it, but if the model 3 is coming like that.. do they do trade ins? I wouldn’t assume so since no garages right? So you have to sell privately? (Noob Tesla person and new to electric market sorry haha)

Edit: just saw they do trade ins! Now this is interesting

They put you in contact with a dealer but you're probably better off trying to sell it yourself.

When I bought my Model S I went to Sandyford and they took some pictures and came back with a price. When it was time to pick up my car I delivered it to a local dealer which dropped me off at Tesla.

KCross

I wonder if the Supercharger in Ireland is earmarked for v3 upgrade?

Mike9832

KCross wrote: »

I wonder if the Supercharger in Ireland is earmarked for v3 upgrade?

The sites not finished will probably get them

From reading sounds like existing V2 chargers will be upgraded to 145kW, not replaced

Coolest new feature is the supercharger pre condition setting, thats really cool

Heats up battery before entering supercharger, basically always getting fastest charge rate possible

Nissan look like cowboys in comparison

KCross

Mike9832 wrote: »

Coolest new feature is the supercharger pre condition setting, thats really cool

Thats not new AFAIK.
Bjorn mentioned that ages ago in his own Model X.

Mike9832

KCross wrote: »

Thats not new AFAIK.
Bjorn mentioned that ages ago in his own Model X.

Didn't know that

Cool feature

dingledosser

Has anybody heard an update on the Tesla supercharger at the N4 Applegreen in Enfield? It was announced in 2017, to be built in 2018, but nothing yet.

slave1

Mike9832 wrote: »

Model 3 tech is looking more amazing by the day

250kW charging, thats crazy

Its now able to preheat the battery on arrival to a supercharger so fastest charge rate is always possible, no more cold or too hot battery

With its Ioniq efficiency @ 120kmh

150 km top up charge

145kW ( supercharger v2) = 12 ish mins
250kW ( supercharger v3, maybe on Ionity) = 8 ish mins

I was anti EV for a long time,

200kW+ charge rate in an efficient 300bhp EV, with 400km of range for 40k is game changing

Honestly thought it would be 2025 before we saw that tech at that price

Did Bjorn not post a vid showing the v2 and v3 charging times and there was virtually no difference in charging time - pretty sure it was a M3 but might have been his Optimus

Sabre Man

Comparison from Reddit

Old diesel

slave1 wrote: »

Did Bjorn not post a vid showing the v2 and v3 charging times and there was virtually no difference in charging time - pretty sure it was a M3 but might have been his Optimus

The video I saw was a normal Tesla supercharger vs a 175 kw CCS (Hypercharger).

dingledosser

dingledosser wrote: »

Has anybody heard an update on the Tesla supercharger at the N4 Applegreen in Enfield? It was announced in 2017, to be built in 2018, but nothing yet.

Just called Tesla to ask there. Scheduled to be finished by the end of Q2. It will be westbound only, but with 'flyover access'.