Azerbaijani / Armenia Conflict

Manach

During the breakup of the Soviet Union, this was one of a nastier conflicts over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. It now looks to be re-igniting

"
Long-simmering tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared again Saturday, with 12 Azerbaijani troops killed and one of its military helicopters shot down, according to state media.

The violence was centered in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region occupied by Armenian forces but surrounded and claimed by Azerbaijan. Where it belongs has been in dispute for years, though it's been relatively rare of late for this discord to erupt in bloodshed.
" - http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/02/asia/azerbaijan-armenia-violence/index.html


Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh

BoJack Horseman

A bit of a sleeper this one

I had no idea there was conflict between the two states.

Looking at google maps, the border area is shows a few enclaves in what is now at least, Armenia.



And then to the south you have the Co Galway sized Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic nominally part of Azerbaijan.

And, as you said... this Nagorno Karbakh place....

Gatling

Another proxy war .

Russia vs turkey this time around this has been a frozen conflict going back a good while be very interesting to see if Putin decides to get fully involved

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Another proxy war

What are Russia & Turkey providing?

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What are Russia & Turkey providing?

Russia supports Armenia and actually have a security agreement stating Russia will defend them during conflicts .

Turkey on the other side but I'm not sure if they have and offical pacts

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Russia supports Armenia and actually have a security agreement stating Russia will defend them during conflicts

Forgot about that...
they are both part of the 'Collective Security organisation'.
That rogues gallery of dictators & more-or-less-dictators that no one is threatening the security of.

Elmer Blooker

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Forgot about that...
they are both part of the 'Collective Security organisation'.
That rogues gallery of dictators & more-or-less-dictators that no one is threatening the security of.

Wrong. The worst dictatorships, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan (now involved in NATO's "Partnership for peace" ) withdrew from the CTSO.
If you know your history you will find that the Armenians have a very good reason to believe that Turkey is threatening their security.

riffmongous

It's not a huge surprise, there have been articles recently enough talking about the large amount of militarisation going on in Azerbaijan.

Turks and Azeri's are fairly close in culture and ethnicity, hence the Turkish support for them. Members of the Grey Wolves fought in the first war on the Azeri side.

Wasn't it an Azeri soldier who killed his Armenian colleague with an axe while he slept at a NATO training course. Have a read of the link below and you'll get an awful insight into the conflict

link

BoJack Horseman

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Wrong. The worst dictatorships, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan (now involved in NATO's "Partnership for peace" ) withdrew from the CTSO..

Every member of the boss-man's CSTO is also in NATO'S partnership for peace!

glued

It'll be interesting if the Armenians call for Russian support here. The truce is a fraud and a political move from Azerbaijan to blame the Armenians for breaking it. Azerbaijan seem intent on escalating here. Now is probably their best chance at attacking the Armenian's when most of Russia's planes are in Syria.

BoJack Horseman

glued wrote: »

Azerbaijan seem intent on escalating here.

How do you reckon this?

The conflict is largely within & around Nagorno-Karabakh & the nearby border... this is Armenian controlled territory within Azerbaijan.

The Azeri forces are also taking a pasting... So, I'm not sure how they can be said to be 'escalating' anything, especially when the conflict is mostly within their own landmass!

Now is probably their best chance at attacking the Armenian's when most of Russia's planes are in Syria.

At its peak, all of 2.8% or the RuAF's jet-fighters were in Syria.
So, I would also reconsider where you are getting the "most of Russia's planes are in Syria" thing.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

At its peak, all of 2.8% or the RuAF's jet-fighters were in Syria.
So, I would also reconsider where you are getting the "most of Russia's planes are in Syria" thing.

67 planes out of several hundred at least .

Seems we had a big kick off in Ukraine this week as well bit of a coincidence?

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

67 planes out of several hundred at least .

Seems we had a big kick off in Ukraine this week as well bit of a coincidence?

40 of them were fixed wing out of a fleet of about 1,400....

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

40 of them were fixed wing out of a fleet of about 1,400....

True .

But we've seen this little situation happen in the past and more recently ,
we've now 3 former soviet states with frozen and warm conflicts going on all involve so called separatists backed by Moscow

donaghs

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

A bit of a sleeper this one

I had no idea there was conflict between the two states.

Looking at google maps, the border area is shows a few enclaves in what is now at least, Armenia.

And then to the south you have the Co Galway sized Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic nominally part of Azerbaijan.

And, as you said... this Nagorno Karbakh place....

There was a real war there as the Soviet Union broke up in 1989.

If you look at this ethnic map of the wider region just before the Armenian Genocide, you can see Armenian (blue colour) enclaves in what is now Azerbaijan.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/05/Ethnic_map_of_Asia_Minor_and_Caucasus_in_1914.jpg

But more interestingly, most of the Armenian population lived and made up the majority population of what is now parts of eastern Turkey. Considering what happened to them in 1915, you'd understand why they'd be wary of any new "pan-Turkic" enemies.

Gatling

Something to consider is the security agreement between Armenia and Russia .
Russia currently has over 3000 troops and and hundreds of vehicles and just under 100 fighter jets stationed in Armenia along with the much raved about s300 air defence systems.

This was a statement made by one of the most senior russian officers based in Armenia a few years back .

"In 2013, the chief commander of 102nd military base Andrey Ruzinsky said in an interview that "If Azerbaijan decides to restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force the [Russian] military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the Russian Federation’s obligations within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization "

BoJack Horseman

Interesting video showing what looks like a 'Harop' drone going in for it's kill in Azerbaijan.

Seemingly 7 Armenian fighters were killed by it's impact.

Not sure if the sound heard is the drone itself, or if it's an air raid siren.

But it is interesting to see these platforms go back to their 'kamikaze' roots.
The UCAV doesn't fire a weapon, it is the weapon, packed with about 20kgs of explosives.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Not sure if the sound heard is the drone itself, or if it's an air raid siren.

But it is interesting to see these platforms go back to their 'kamikaze' roots.
The UCAV doesn't fire a weapon, it is the weapon, packed with about 20kgs of explosives.

Expect an new buzz word

ABIED (aerial borne IED)

essentially it's a guided smart bomb without the need for multi million pound dollar aircraft to deploy it