Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

KCross

phantom_lord wrote: »

I do have some puts alright. But I'd hate to see people losing money here because they believe the Musk hype.

Great that you have so much interest in everyone else's financial affairs!

phantom_lord wrote: »

It's been show over and over that he's a fraud.

Has it? I dont know about that.

The tweet was ill advised for sure. Other than that he isnt a Bernie Madoff type guy. He has/is delivering real products that are spectacularly hard to do...

- rockets that come back to land to be reused.... come on like, NASA hadnt even done it!
- getting into the automative industry and betting his entire wealth on making that a success... that takes balls imo. He could have hit the beach years ago as a multi multi millionaire.


You are upset about his tweet but give him credit where its due as well.

The stock price is ridiculous but he doesnt exactly control the fact that its over valued. The stock market isnt sane at the best of times.

And just to be clear... I've no Tesla stock and dont plan on buying any of his cars either so I dont consider myself a fanboi but I can see the good and the bad.... he should be left at the engineering and kept away from the rest.

phantom_lord

KCross wrote: »

Great that you have so much interest in everyone else's financial affairs!




Has it? I dont know about that.

The tweet was ill advised for sure. Other than that he isnt a Bernie Madoff type guy. He has/is delivering real products that are spectacularly hard to do...

- rockets that come back to land to be reused.... come on like, NASA hadnt even done it!
- getting into the automative industry and betting his entire wealth on making that a success... that takes balls imo. He could have hit the beach years ago as a multi multi millionaire.


You are upset about his tweet but give him credit where its due as well.

The stock price is ridiculous but he doesnt exactly control the fact that its over valued. The stock market isnt sane at the best of times.

And just to be clear... I've no Tesla stock and dont plan on buying any of his cars either so I dont consider myself a fanboi but I can see the good and the bad.... he should be left at the engineering and kept away from the rest.

His tweet caused millions to change hands and artifiically boosted the price of his company

KCross wrote: »

Has it? I dont know about that.

Yes. He said he was taking the company private. He said he other day he was building car carriers. He promised automated driving by 2017. He promised solar roofs that came to nothing. He talked about the machine that builds the machines/air friction limited robot factory that outdoes the majors. He repetedly over promised on delieveries. He claimed Tesla was going to be profitable in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.

You are upset about his tweet but give him credit where its due as well.

Not at all. It's going to be positive for me.

KCross

phantom_lord wrote: »

The company is going to zero, it's just a matter of time... or at least I hope so because I've a vested interest and it will cost me money!

FYP

phantom_lord wrote: »

His tweet caused millions to change hands and artifiically boosted the price of his company


Yes. He said he was taking the company private. He said he other day he was building car carriers. He promised automated driving by 2017. He promised solar roofs that came to nothing. He talked about the machine that builds the machines/air friction limited robot factory that outdoes the majors. He repetedly over promised on delieveries. He claimed Tesla was going to be profitable in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.

You are over-egging it now and mis-quoting to make your point. He never said he was taking Tesla private. He said he was considering it. Very different!

I dont see anything in your list that shows him as a fraud (in the legal sense). The tweet might have crossed the line but only the courts will judge whether its actual fraud.

Every company makes forward looking statements and in the small print it says its not guaranteed. Your a big boy you dont believe everything you read, do you?!

phantom_lord wrote: »

Not at all. It's going to be positive for me.

Well at least you are being positive. Its better than the doom and gloom!

phantom_lord

The tweet might have crossed the line but only the courts will judge whether its actual fraud.

I'm not sure even that would convince you.

KCross

phantom_lord wrote: »

I'm not sure even that would convince you.

I dont need to be convinced because I dont care one way or the other. My moola isnt on the line.

I do want Tesla to survive though. It is driving the EV agenda forward. Anything that hits the big automative industry and vested oil interests is a good thing.

I dont care if its Musk running it or not.

Mach 3

KCross wrote: »

Storm in a teacup. It will all blow over. The word “considering” will get him off the fraud charge.

If he said “taking Tesla private, funding secured” it would be manipulation.

“Considering” isn’t confirmation of anything. A fine and a slap on the wrist and back to making cars.

Yep, we could do with more of legal analytics on this forum (and that's meant in a nice way).

phantom_lord

KCross wrote: »

I dont need to be convinced because I dont care one way or the other. My moola isnt on the line.

I do want Tesla to survive though.

You wouldn't keep trying to deny that Musk is a fraud and a liar if you didn't care. EV cars are going to take over in the medium term whether or not Tesla survives. It has very little little to do with Tesla and a lot more to do with improving battery tech and economics.

What Musk did was absolutely unprecedented, it's far from a storm in a teacup, he's opened himself and the company up for massive liabilities. Just when they need more capital just to survive. They're done.

People are going to look back at this like the Irish banks in the crisis, or Enron, all the writing is on the wall but a lot of people still want to believe.

Thargor

Really wondering if I should have picked up a few today, seems like an easy 10-20%. He wont even get a slap on the wrist.

unkel

I had no liquidity and wasn't willing to sell any of my current holdings. Otherwise I would have been mighty tempted

drunkmonkey

unkel wrote: »

I had no liquidity and wasn't willing to sell any of my current holdings. Otherwise I would have been mighty tempted

You wouldn't cash in a few % gain in Porsche to maybe make 20/30% in Tesla....

You don't even have to say it, your gut done it for you : )

drunkmonkey

Thargor wrote: »

Really wondering if I should have picked up a few today, seems like an easy 10-20%. He wont even get a slap on the wrist.

He's going to get one of the largest fines in corporate history and a 5yr minimum ban from holding a directors position. The SEC are obliged to reinforce their position that this type of behaviour is not and will not be tolerated.

Thargor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

He's going to get one of the largest fines in corporate history and a 5yr minimum ban from holding a directors position. The SEC are obliged to reinforce their position that this type of behaviour is not and will not be tolerated.

Not a hope.

phantom_lord

Thargor wrote: »

Really wondering if I should have picked up a few today, seems like an easy 10-20%. He wont even get a slap on the wrist.

unkel wrote: »

I had no liquidity and wasn't willing to sell any of my current holdings. Otherwise I would have been mighty tempted

What are you guys seeing that the market isn't? https://www.ft.com/content/bdde8e44-c333-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a
Are you just hoping for a dead cat bounce, or are you just trying to catch a knife?

Thargor wrote: »

Not a hope.

What's your forcasted outcome?

Sabre Man

Thargor wrote: »

Really wondering if I should have picked up a few today, seems like an easy 10-20%. He wont even get a slap on the wrist.

I think Friday was affected by the uptick rule so the share price may go lower, although the quarterly production results should be released Monday or Tuesday, which should have a positive effect.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/uptickrule.asp

KCross

phantom_lord wrote: »

You wouldn't keep trying to deny that Musk is a fraud and a liar if you didn't care.

As I said, I dont care about Musk. I care about Tesla surviving.

phantom_lord wrote: »

EV cars are going to take over in the medium term whether or not Tesla survives. It has very little little to do with Tesla and a lot more to do with improving battery tech and economics.

You have that completely wrong anyway.
If Tesla ceased to exist in the morning do you think big auto would invest billions in EV tech or do you think they would churn out what they have already invested in?

Tesla is why the Germans have got the finger out because they can see Tesla chipping away at their sales. The Model 3 being churned out in much higher numbers is going to hurt them even more and they have HAD to react accordingly. If Tesla died you can be sure they would sweat the assets they have alot lot longer as they would have no incentive to switch to EV.

The economics side comes with scale. Tesla now have scale.
Battery tech is evolving but it will be a slow progression. In the meantime long range EV's can and do exist with current tech and they are under €40k.

phantom_lord wrote: »

What Musk did was absolutely unprecedented, it's far from a storm in a teacup, he's opened himself and the company up for massive liabilities.

Fair enough. I dont know how its going to pan out no more than you do.
By some media it is reported that he was offered a deal to pay a nominal fine and step down as CEO and he refused it and decided to have his day in court. Either he thinks he can beat the charge or he is being badly advised. Time will tell.

If he gets booted out as CEO I would hope Tesla could weather that storm. He has already done the heavy lifting anyway to get it to this point (assuming Q3 and Q4 are profitable).

phantom_lord wrote: »

Just when they need more capital just to survive. They're done.

If Q3 and Q4 are profitable does that not negate the need to raise capital?

He is expanding into China and they have more money than you can shake a stick at so is the raising of capital that big an issue as you make it out to be? It obviously requires him to turn profitable. If Q3 and Q4 are loss making I'd be more inclined to agree with you then.

phantom_lord

KCross wrote: »

You have that completely wrong anyway.
If Tesla ceased to exist in the morning do you think big auto would invest billions in EV tech or do you think they would churn out what they have already invested in?

Tesla is why the Germans have got the finger out because they can see Tesla chipping away at their sales. The Model 3 being churned out in much higher numbers is going to hurt them even more and they have HAD to react accordingly. If Tesla died you can be sure they would sweat the assets they have alot lot longer as they would have no incentive to switch to EV.

Nah you have this backwards, other car makers are getting involved because of the improved economics. Tesla had a near monopoly selling high end cars and burnt money doing it, the majors are only getting involved now when it makes actual sense. We didn't need pet.com for the internet to take off, and if Tesla disappeared tomorrow the timeline for mass integration of EV cars would remain the same.

The economics side comes with scale. Tesla now have scale.
Battery tech is evolving but it will be a slow progression. In the meantime long range EV's can and do exist with current tech and they are under €40k.

Tesla produced 100k cars last year, GM produced nearly 10m. Tesla don't have scale. They can't even organise trailers to move their tiny output. Their logistics are a mess.

Fair enough. I dont know how its going to pan out no more than you do.
By some media it is reported that he was offered a deal to pay a nominal fine and step down as CEO and he refused it and decided to have his day in court. Either he thinks he can beat the charge or he is being badly advised. Time will tell.

Or C, his ego got in the way. He said in his statement that integrity is important to him, which is absolutely laughable considering all his public utterances :pac:

There's a DoJ investigation going on in parallel, and possibly a criminal charge coming from the SEC, the likelihood is this gets a lot worse.

If he gets booted out as CEO I would hope Tesla could weather that storm. He has already done the heavy lifting anyway to get it to this point (assuming Q3 and Q4 are profitable).

How? They're practically insolvent

If Q3 and Q4 are profitable does that not negate the need to raise capital?

No. They need billions for refinancing and future working capital

He is expanding into China and they have more money than you can shake a stick at so is the raising of capital that big an issue as you make it out to be?

Reports are that sales aren't doing well in China, esp. with the tariffs.

KCross

phantom_lord wrote: »

Nah you have this backwards, other car makers are getting involved because of the improved economics. Tesla had a near monopoly selling high end cars and burnt money doing it, the majors are only getting involved now when it makes actual sense. We didn't need pet.com for the internet to take off, and if Tesla disappeared tomorrow the timeline for mass integration of EV cars would remain the same.

What have I got backwards? You are saying the economics of EV production has improved and now big auto are moving in. How has that happened? The tech is still the same... Li-ion with decades old electric motors. Tesla hasnt done anything earth shattering in relation to improving the tech and the improved economics is purely down to scale.... which is where all Tesla's money is gone to.

The cheapest mass market EV is profitable for several years but it wasnt eating into the BMW, Merc and VW sales so they sat on their hands. Most of them dont even have battery supply tied down yet. I dont think your assertion that they are going to be able to fill a Tesla gap at all believable in the medium term. Where are they going to get the batteries from? They are only starting to build battery factories now for a few years time.

So, straight off the bat if Tesla went down it would take several years (5 at least) for the others to match Tesla's output and thats assuming they would even want to if Tesla was no longer a threat to their ICE sales. It matters not a jot that GM can deliver 10m ICE cars if they cant get a supply of batteries.

Tesla has disrupted the Germans because Tesla's are direct competition to their market segment and if it didnt exist they would be doubling down on their ICE investments.

Tesla are the biggest manufacturer of EV's right now and looking like 300k EV's for the year. That's all the Leaf's that were produced since 2010 in one year!!!

VW's plan is to produce 1m EV's per year by 2025. If they come good on that they will be the only ones seriously competing with Tesla. The rest are producing tiny numbers because they dont have battery supply and wont have for many years.

phantom_lord wrote: »

Tesla produced 100k cars last year, GM produced nearly 10m. Tesla don't have scale. They can't even organise trailers to move their tiny output. Their logistics are a mess.

Thats just a dumb comparison. Of course the majors are delivering much larger numbers, they are at it for decades. Tesla in relative terms is still in startup phase and growing. You cant go from a standing start less than a decade ago to 10m EV's.

I agree the logistics arent good. They unfortunately are learning as they go.

phantom_lord wrote: »

Or C, his ego got in the way. He said in his statement that integrity is important to him, which is absolutely laughable considering all his public utterances :pac:

There's a DoJ investigation going on in parallel, and possibly a criminal charge coming from the SEC, the likelihood is this gets a lot worse.

Could do if he loses the case. I wouldnt say its a dead cert that he will be convicted though.

He might even do a deal yet before it goes to court.

And there isnt any reason why Tesla would fold just because Musk is removed as CEO.

phantom_lord wrote: »

How? They're practically insolvent

What is your measure of "practically insolvent"?
They have cash. The expectation is that there is some profitable quarters coming up (which remains to be seen of course). How does that make them practically insolvent?

Are you just referring to refinancing upcoming debt and assuming they wont be able to get it?

I wouldnt bet against that either.

phantom_lord wrote: »

No. They need billions for refinancing and future working capital

Future working capital would be to expand the business (Tesla Semi, roadster, Model Y etc). The capital required for those will need to be raised but if he cant get it it just means they get delayed. It doesnt mean the rest goes up in smoke as long as they are profitable.... thats the key thing here... he has to get profitable. If he doesnt, he's screwed.

phantom_lord wrote: »

Reports are that sales aren't doing well in China, esp. with the tariffs.

Which is why they are setting up a factory there with Chinese money. China is the biggest market in the world for EV's. There is huge potential for anyone thats gets their EV and battery manufactured on the ground which they have started.

Are the competition in there building Gigafactories? No, they arent. Some announcements with small numbers. Nothing like Tesla's plans.

VW are the only ones that are talking any serious game on EV manufacturing. The rest are hoping that ICE survives. If Tesla dies EV adoption will be setback decades.

phantom_lord

Tesla hasnt done anything earth shattering in relation to improving the tech and the improved economics is purely down to scale.... which is where all Tesla's money is gone to.

All the advances has been done by the likes of Panasonic, Tesla has contributed very little.

What is your measure of "practically insolvent"?
They have cash. The expectation is that there is some profitable quarters coming up (which remains to be seen of course). How does that make them practically insolvent?

Are you just referring to refinancing upcoming debt and assuming they wont be able to get it?

I wouldnt bet against that either. /QUOTE]

Current working capital is -2BN right now, if suppliers went COD Tesla would fold tomorrow. Have you seen the price of CDS for Tesla debt? They're gonna really struggle to raise and there's no option to issue stock now

phantom_lord

VW are the only ones that are talking any serious game on EV manufacturing. The rest are hoping that ICE survives.

Everyone knows it's the future, they didn't bother prev[iously because it was a money pick, the only issue is what direction they take

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

"Tesla’s Elon Musk settles with SEC, paying $20 million fine and resigning as board chairman" Washington Post

unkel

Mickey Mouse punishment. Not even a slap on the wrist. He'll still be CEO.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

Mickey Mouse punishment. Not even a slap on the wrist. He'll still be CEO.

Yea, he dodged a long drawn out battle there.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226

Snippet...

Musk and Tesla have agreed to settle the charges against them without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations. Among other relief, the settlements require that:

- Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman.
- Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
- Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
- Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
- Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.

Its no harm that they take twitter off him anyway.
He definitely needs to relinquish some control and let others do some of the work and focus on the engineering.

Interesting that they are giving the money to "harmed investors". How are they going to figure that out?!

I'd say the shorters are not happy. It would have been much better for them if there was months of doubt and court cases etc

Q3 earnings should get the share price back in the other direction!

unkel

KCross wrote: »

I'd say the shorters are not happy.

That's a bit of an understatement

lucky john

Future Secured.

Bring on Q3 deliveries.

TiGeR KiNgS

Short Tesla

Basket case of a company (... and CEO)

Could see the share price being $330 + next week.

Kuva

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-26/world-s-electric-car-visionary-isn-t-musk-it-s-china-s-wan-gang

lucky john

Kuva wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-26/world-s-electric-car-visionary-isn-t-musk-it-s-china-s-wan-gang

I'm not sure why you posted the link. Mr Wan Gang is no doubt a visionary and could see the end of ICE and the only alternative (for the foreseeable future)been EV's. However he has not been the driving force of the EV revolution. That honor will always be down to Musk and Tesla. Unlike in the western world and particularly in the US the Chinese saw the light and have not put every possible road block in Wan Gang's way. The EV battle with big oil and ICE manufactures is been fought in the US. It's the cult following that Musk has and Musk alone has won, that will be the deciding factor. Regardless of what happens he will go down in history as the father of EV's.

Over the next few days Tesla is going to announce outstanding M3 sales for September. Around 55,000 delivered. the feed back from those customers is driving a new wave of believers. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/car-brands-ranked-by-owner-satisfaction/

When total US car sales are announced soon the numbers are going to be a wake up call for many. I know the anti Musk spin machine will bust a gut trying to point to the negative but by Jan 2019 their day will be done.

zpehtsfd

unkel wrote: »

That's a bit of an understatement

You clearly have no idea what shorts are thinking. The "420" tweet has shown Musk to be exactly what we have been saying he is i.e. a shyster. This settlement means Musk has effectively lost control of the board and the freedom to do and say whatever he wants in the future. This is a massive win for shorts.

The question longs should be asking themselves is why did he rush to settlement? There is no way an egomaniac like Musk would succumb to the SEC, without even a short fight, unless he had a lot more to lose by them digging around. It stinks of desperation.

It's so funny to read all the longs posts saying all this is noise and all that matters is Q3 numbers. Laughable that some people would invest hard earned money in a company where every Q is pivotal to it's future existence. You can thank Musk for putting the company is such a precarious position. Good product but horrible business leadership.

unkel

zpehtsfd wrote: »

This settlement means Musk has effectively lost control of the board and the freedom to do and say whatever he wants in the future.

Do you seriously believe that?

Giving up the chairman role was just a token offering. It is meaningless. He's still on the board and he remains CEO.

But you're right. I have no idea what the shorts are thinking. Lunacy to bet your hard earned money against a company like Tesla imho. And to try and bring down a company that's trying to better the world is morally reprehensible.