Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

KCross

Sabre Man wrote: »

From the Q3 report:
Based on trade-ins received from customers since the start of Model 3 production, more than half of those trade-in vehicles were priced below $35,000 when new. It is clear that customers are trading up their relatively cheaper vehicles to buy a Model 3 even though there is not yet a
leasing option and the Q3 starting price of a Model 3 was $49,000.

That's a huge market even before leasing is available. I don't think they need to raise money.

They will for Model Y and Semi. The Model 3 isnt going to fund those programs while they continue to pay down the debt that is maturing.... $900m in Mar, isnt it? Thats a big repayment there!


But thats another good point on the leasing.... once they start leasing that also opens the door to more consumers. Its only cash buyers right now which is a small portion of most car buying markets... not saying Ireland is the world but isnt it something like 2/3rd's use PCP these days?.... people look at the monthly figure and buy with their heart not their head and Tesla is cool so hearts will rule heads!

zpehtsfd

KCross wrote: »

Its an overvalued stock but thats the stock market for ya.

Agree 100%. So goes the market, so goes Tesla.

lucky john

Mark B. Spiegel
‏

@markbspiegel
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Want to get crazy? Slap a 20x multiple (vs 6x for the industry) on $800M/year $TSLA GAAP EPS (and Q4 & Q1 will NOT hit that $200M run-rate) and you get $90/share. Of course, that assumes Fraud-Boy doesn't get cuffs slapped on him first.

5:12 PM - 24 Oct 2018

I see Spiegel is grasping at straws now. He seems to have raised his price target from zero to 90. Shorting his own fund might just be a better bet these days.

lucky john

I know Mark has some fans here who continue to mirror his thoughts. Here's a nice roll call of his views.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1055638874356150272.html

"Where did it all go wrong for @markbspiegel? A deep dive on his Tesla history $TSLA $TSAQ

2013 - Mark is Short on Tesla early July. "


As for his investment fund....

"I wonder how Stanphyl Capital is doing?...lets look...
Started May 2011, 10 investors investing the minimum
(Minimum investment $250k - dropped to $100k in 2012)
by 2018 21 people had invested $6.7M total"

Sabre Man

More new Model 3 VIN numbers:

#Tesla registered 7,763 new #Model3 VINs. ~19% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 177554.

lucky john

Sabre Man wrote: »

More new Model 3 VIN numbers:

#Tesla registered 7,763 new #Model3 VINs. ~19% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 177554.

The thought on this is that Tesla expect over 50,000 orders this weekend for the new mid range M3. It's only rear single motor and most of the VIN's registered to date have been dual motor. To manufacture and deliver before year end means either another hectic Q end or production of 7000 per week starting soon.
As the 1st new battery production line is up and running in GF1 and the 2nd ready in a few weeks it looks like the 7000/w is possible.

Sabre Man

This may also boost Model S and X demand (and production) near-term

https://www.engadget.com/2018/10/23/tesla-dropping-model-s-x-interior-options/

lucky john

Speed up production and reduce the inventory. It's all about cash flow. I have no doubt they could roll over the repayment due in March if the wanted to but at the rate they are pushing it looks like they could easily pay with cash. Personally I would rather they did roll it and use the cash to expand GF1 and get the Y into production ASAP.

lucky john

In the middle of trading today as TSLA was sailing along the WSJ published a negative article on an FBI investigation into tesla. https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-deepening-criminal-probe-over-whether-it-misstated-production-figures-1540576636 TSLA dropped 7%. It became apparent fairly quickly that this was not a new investigation, just a rehash of an old article. TSLA recovered 5%.

So...since the WSJ is such an influential paper, that published what is seemingly untrue, that had an immediate market impact, is there questions to be answered? What was their motivation (if there was one)? Did anyone gain from this? Will the SEC have any interest.

Never a dull day in Tesla land.

lucky john

https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2018/10/28/guess-what-everyone-was-wrong-about-tesla/#61ce5d773ca4

"Guess What? Everyone Was Wrong About Tesla"

b4bmm

News just in Larry Ellison second biggest investment he has is in Tesla.

For anybody who doesn’t know who he is google him.

Keep on clowning clowns, you know better.

Will possibly make an entry if it gets back towards $250-260 again.

Sabre Man

From CNBC

Tesla (TSLA) shareholder Baillie Gifford & Co. said it would be willing to inject more cash into the automaker, according to a partner in the investment firm quoted by the Times of London. Baillie Gifford is the third largest Tesla shareholder with a 7.72 percent stake.

KCross

Its awfully quiet in here since Tesla reported a profit! :pac:

Did the shorts find anything in the 10-Q for Q3 or have they gone quiet?


Eventhough I think the share is over priced they do look to be on track to hit the magic $360 ($350 right now) which would allow them to convert the $1b in debt they have maturing in Mar 2019 to shares. I presume that would be a massive boost to their cash flow for the remainder of 2019.

Anyone got any thoughts on whether they are likely to convert that debt to shares or will they pay it off to reduce debt, assuming Q4 is cash flow positive and the share price goes over $360... both of which look more likely than unlikely at this stage.

Sabre Man

Tesla confirms Model 3 is getting a CCS plug in Europe, adapter coming for Model S and Model X
https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-ccs-2-plug-europe-adapter-model-s-model-x/

This is a huge competitive advantage.

Model 3 is now on display in various locations in Europe.

b4bmm

Very very quiet.
The clowns have stopped clowning.
They are waiting for another chance though to embarrass themselves.

el diablo

b4bmm wrote: »

Very very quiet.
The clowns have stopped clowning.
They are waiting for another chance though to embarrass themselves.

Don't get too cocky kiddo. Bankruptcy in the coming years is a certainty. :pac:
You've been warned.

b4bmm

el diablo wrote: »

Don't get too cocky kiddo. Bankruptcy in the coming years is a certainty. :pac:
You've been warned.

Please forgive me pops but I didn’t listen to you before and won’t start now for obvious reasons.

el diablo

b4bmm wrote: »

Please forgive me pops but I didn’t listen to you before and won’t start now for obvious reasons.

Not quite sure why you attached images but I sure ain't clicking on them.
Anyway, have a pleasant evening.

Sabre Man

Tesla is pushing to achieve Model 3 production of 7,000 units per week within 2 weeks
https://electrek.co/2018/11/15/tesla-model-3-production-7000-per-week/

Sabre Man

Tesla cuts prices on solar power systems as it looks to entice customers
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/tesla-cuts-prices-on-solar-power-systems.html

In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Tesla's senior vice president of energy operations, Sanjay Shah, said that the price reductions should make the firm "highly competitive."

q85dw7osi4lebg

Sabre Man wrote: »

Tesla cuts prices on solar power systems as it looks to entice customers
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/tesla-cuts-prices-on-solar-power-systems.html

In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Tesla's senior vice president of energy operations, Sanjay Shah, said that the price reductions should make the firm "highly competitive."

Probably to compete with RGSE.

In deep enough here now, worth a look if interested in Tesla's solar aspect.

lucky john

Closing in on all time high. I assume its on the news that the Model 3 is open for deposits in China. Delivery in 2019. price for basic $35,000. At that price I assume made in China. If they can buy a site, build a factory and produce a car from it all in 1 year that will be some achievement. Even if it ran into 2020 that's outstanding.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Tesla to lay off thousands of employees due to 'very difficult' road ahead https://jrnl.ie/4447226

Waiting for re entry point

phantom_lord

Camilla Damaged Economist wrote: »

Tesla to lay off thousands of employees due to 'very difficult' road ahead https://jrnl.ie/4447226

Waiting for re entry point

To go long?

q85dw7osi4lebg

phantom_lord wrote: »

To go long?

Yep. Rode it from mid 2’s to mid 3’s. Reckon we’ll see high 3’s again. Not necessarily a massive fan of the business itself but there’s a few million fan boys trading the stock.

Sabre Man

Earnings will be released in one week.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-full-year-2018-q4-2018-financial-report-earnings-call-date/

Sabre Man

Another solid quarter.

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/0b913415-467d-4c0d-be4c-9225c2cb0ae0

lucky john

Cash on hand well covers the march debt payment which should reassuring for the markets. tesla energy looking solid as well for the future. Solar dragging still so hopefully the new roof will be commercialised soon.

I think Q119 will be be a tougher one for them. The lag between shipping and payment from exported cars is going to drag down cash flow untill they have that streamlined. Once they have that sorted though it's going to add a new level to revenue growth

q85dw7osi4lebg

Got back in at 290, so far so good hopefully get back to mid 3's.

drunkmonkey

Camilla Damaged Economist wrote: »

Got back in at 290, so far so good hopefully get back to mid 3's.

It'll get back to the mid 30's alright, I hope that's a short position. Can't see them surving the next 12/24mts as a business even if they do reality has to come into the share price at some stage.
Porsche has doubled production target with their first EV who's mission is to kill the model S. I'd expect the Polestar 2 and Golf ID to kick the model 3 where it hurts.