Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Markcheese · 31-01-2019 1:10pm

I assume that tesla are too big at the moment, (or at least too valuable) to to be either bought or merge with a more mainstream auto company.. If the gloss starts to come off their future prospects....
But all these potential tesla killers have a serious issue, where will they get their batteries from.. Its all very well having the capacity in a growing market to produce loads of cars, but if you can't get the batteries at scale, and the right price...

Of course because the battery tech is changing so fast this could be a huge leveler ...

OwlsZat · 31-01-2019 1:21pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It'll get back to the mid 30's alright, I hope that's a short position. Can't see them surving the next 12/24mts as a business even if they do reality has to come into the share price at some stage.
Porsche has doubled production target with their first EV who's mission is to kill the model S. I'd expect the Polestar 2 and Golf ID to kick the model 3 where it hurts.

Fools gold. Any actual evidence these cars are any good?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 31-01-2019 1:23pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It'll get back to the mid 30's alright, I hope that's a short position. Can't see them surving the next 12/24mts as a business even if they do reality has to come into the share price at some stage.
Porsche has doubled production target with their first EV who's mission is to kill the model S. I'd expect the Polestar 2 and Golf ID to kick the model 3 where it hurts.

I'm up 33% in total, between getting in and out at the right time so I'm cosy for now. I think the fanboys will keep it pumped for longer than most think.

I'd take the Porsche any day, but watching the Porsche share price would put you to sleep.

drunkmonkey · 31-01-2019 1:23pm

Panasonic/LG

EV's are dead in the water if the future is dependent on Tesla batteries. Why would any manufacturer even bother making an EV.

Tesla have no leaver, they had first mover advantage and made a complete balls of it.

drunkmonkey · 31-01-2019 1:33pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Fools gold. Any actual evidence these cars are any good?

Mmmm...let me see. No evidence just a hunch based on the 80yrs + of manufacturing at Porsche and sure what do Volvo know about making electric vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_T2OvbqGMo

:rolleyes:

drunkmonkey · 31-01-2019 1:34pm

Camilla Damaged Economist wrote: »

I'd take the Porsche any day, but watching the Porsche share price would put you to sleep.

Keep an eye on it heading into end of Feburary.

vargoo · 31-01-2019 1:37pm

Markcheese wrote: »

I assume that tesla are too big at the moment, (or at least too valuable) to to be either bought or merge with a more mainstream auto company.. If the gloss starts to come off their future prospects....
But all these potential tesla killers have a serious issue, where will they get their batteries from.. Its all very well having the capacity in a growing market to produce loads of cars, but if you can't get the batteries at scale, and the right price...

Of course because the battery tech is changing so fast this could be a huge leveler ...

https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

Graphene battery, aluminium air seem out of prototype land, poxy lithium needs to go anyway.

Saying that another version of Lithium oxygen will probably be it for the next while.

Sabre Man · 31-01-2019 2:31pm

Great analysis by Rob Maurer

http://techcastdaily.com/

Sabre Man · 31-01-2019 2:35pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Fools gold. Any actual evidence these cars are any good?

Have you ever driven a Tesla or even an EV?

Model 3 is getting great reviews, even from Top Gear: https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/tesla/model-3

lucky john · 31-01-2019 2:38pm

This film below "Revenge of the electric car" is well worth a watch if you have an interest in where EV's revolution started.

Some very familiar faces feature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru89x1jmpq4

el diablo · 31-01-2019 5:23pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Have you ever driven a Tesla or even an EV?

Model 3 is getting great reviews, even from Top Gear: https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/tesla/model-3

The build quality of the Model 3 is ridiculously bad though and Tesla's quality control department are their customers.

Sabre Man · 31-01-2019 5:57pm

el diablo wrote: »

The build quality of the Model 3 is ridiculously bad though and Tesla's quality control department are their customers.

That's just one data point. Quality is improving all the time.

drunkmonkey · 31-01-2019 7:28pm

All they need now is to give the AA portable battery packs..

Markcheese · 31-01-2019 8:23pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

That's just one data point. Quality is improving all the time.

He hated it so much he got rid of it,
and got another tesla.... (the more premium model 3)

ted1 · 31-01-2019 8:24pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

All they need now is to give the AA portable battery packs..

They have portable battery packs!!

Sabre Man · 01-02-2019 10:38am

Markcheese wrote: »

He hated it so much he got rid of it,
and got another tesla.... (the more premium model 3)

And this is what he thought of it. Much better quality and amazing to drive.

phantom_lord · 01-02-2019 11:10am

Sabre Man wrote: »

That's just one data point. Quality is improving all the time.

It really isn't, it's a huge issue, and there's a massive lack of spare parts for the required repairs.

Sabre Man · 01-02-2019 11:47am

phantom_lord wrote: »

It really isn't, it's a huge issue, and there's a massive lack of spare parts for the required repairs.

Do you have any data to back it up?

drunkmonkey · 01-02-2019 2:19pm

Ahh come on your can't be following Tesla and aren't aware of any issues besides one data point.

Sabre Man · 01-02-2019 4:20pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Ahh come on your can't be following Tesla and aren't aware of any issues besides one data point.

I have heard of issues, but the fact is that quality is improving all the time. Any issues on delivery are usually dealt with quickly as far as I am aware.

phantom_lord · 01-02-2019 6:38pm

Where's the data that quality is improving?

lucky john · 01-02-2019 7:10pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

Where's the data that quality is improving?

Surely if you look at the data you have you will see the improving quality.

The rocketing sales alone tell all that needs to be known.

It's fascinating to see the naysayers looking for something to criticize as Tesla goes from strength to strength. Not so long ago it was the hope of bankruptcy they clung to, now its 10mm paint scratches.

It's also interesting watching every car with more than 1 battery been called a "Tesla Killer". Musk is blue in the face saying he wants all cars to be EVs. He has led the way and created a market for every auto maker to sell EVs. Just look at EV sales in Ireland. Up almost 700% in January. On small numbers yet admittedly but from 1% to 2.6% of the market. Diesel down 8%. The tide has turned.

phantom_lord · 01-02-2019 8:12pm

Look at what data?

Sabre Man · 01-02-2019 8:24pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

Where's the data that quality is improving?

lucky john · 01-02-2019 8:34pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

Look at what data?

As it happens we have facts. The US consumer car report for 2018 as just been released today.
Overall Top of the pile, is Tesla M3 with 92% owner satisfaction. The Porsche 911 is slightly behind but also with 92%. 3rd is the Genesis G90 at 90%.

In the compact luxury car section the Tesla M3 it top with 92% with the Audi A4 3rd with 80%

Unfortunately the info is from a photo of pages from the report on twitter and I can't figure out how to link them.

Sabre Man · 02-02-2019 11:13am

lucky john wrote: »

As it happens we have facts. The US consumer car report for 2018 as just been released today.
Overall Top of the pile, is Tesla M3 with 92% owner satisfaction. The Porsche 911 is slightly behind but also with 92%. 3rd is the Genesis G90 at 90%.

In the compact luxury car section the Tesla M3 it top with 92% with the Audi A4 3rd with 80%

Unfortunately the info is from a photo of pages from the report on twitter and I can't figure out how to link them.

And that's even with a few quality issues. Mighty impressive. I think we can safely say that any quality issues are simply irrelevant if that's all you guys are basing your short thesis on.

phantom_lord · 02-02-2019 12:26pm

Tesla fell six spots from last year and now ranks third-worst (27 out of 29). The Model S dropped to “Below Average” this year, and its Overall Score is no longer high enough to be “Recommended” by CR. Owners reported suspension problems and other issues that included the extending door handle. (Please see chart below.) The Model X SUV remained “Much-Worse-Than-Average” for reliability, with ongoing problems including the falcon-wing doors and center display screen. On the flip side, the Model 3 sedan has “Average” predicted reliability based on owner feedback.

Has its reliability rating improved from the last survey?

Sabre Man · 02-02-2019 1:12pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

Has its reliability rating improved from the last survey?

Apparently not according to this study, but it doesn't seem to impact owner satisfaction, so I think it can safely be ignored for now.

unkel · 02-02-2019 1:31pm

reliability <> owner satisfaction

It's all about expectations. That's why over the years some makes have scored exceptionally well on the satisfaction ratings. Like Subarus of old. Rugged spartan cars that had nothing in them to go wrong once serviced regularly. After that Skodas in the late 90s and early 00s. Solid well built reliable cars that were sold for thousands cheaper than almost identical cars with different badges. Of course the owners were happy with that

Same now with Dacias. Even better value for money. And of late Hyundais and Kias with very long warranties, great customer service and very high spec vehicles for less money than bare spec Toyotas that aren't as good and reliable as they used to be

Owners of BMWs, Mercedes and Porsches are far more demanding and if anything goes wrong they will be extremely vocal. Teslas up to now are largely owned by fans, who are most forgiving.

Expectations...

KCross · 05-02-2019 3:21pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-maxwell-deal-is-about-lowering-costs-and-keeping-a-battery-moat-2019-02-04?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

I wonder what tech do Maxwell have to make them worth buying out?

Its been said that its related to cold weather performance.
i.e. You dont lose as much range just because its cold. That would be welcome.

Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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