Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

drunkmonkey

Jamiekelly wrote: »

The top three electric cars by range are Tesla models.

When you have to start dropping prices and cut your driving range to one of the worst in the industry just to make sales there's a problem.
https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/tesla-gets-creative-with-model-3-pricing-to-qualify-for-federal-electric-vehicle-rebates

Tesla sales are in the bin and are only going one direction as the competition heats up. 2020/2021 are going to be very hard years for Tesla, I don't think they'll survive them.

drunkmonkey

He's completely off his head, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon-musk-on-investor-call-autonomy-will-make-tesla-a-500b-company.html

Kilboor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

He's completely off his head, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon-musk-on-investor-call-autonomy-will-make-tesla-a-500b-company.html

Not really, if he delivers what he promises it's perfectly reasonable to assume the company would be valued at such from its software alone.

Uber is worth a quarter of this from software alone and is a company that will "never be profitable" according to its CEO.

Tsla has made a profit, has a well selling product, is developing technology that is ground breaking for the mass consumer and has a pipeline to deliver it unlike its competitors. It makes sense for the company to one day be valued at such.

Nonetheless it's a unneeded statement at this time and adds to his list of unnecessary things said.

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

Pretty sure they never actually delivered the 35k or at least made it extremely difficult. It's certainly never been mass produced.

The pricing is all over the place because Musk can't run a company properly.



Yes they're way behind. GM Waymo and Fords videos are more impressive, as are their disengagement stats. Tesla can't do that everywhere, they've said so.


Tesla is on the same path as Enron and Thernos. He's promising products he can't deliver. Solar tiles was exactly like Theranos. As is FSD. He misled the public about the product to bail him and family out.



You don't think any of this makes him a charlatan?



Drive itself into a truck.

His company is nearly last in autonomous driving. Other companies are ahead in tech but aren't putting in their cars yet because it isn't ready. They don't want to decapitate their customers.

So for FSD they're like Theranos? You do realise they have showcased a lot of FSD WORKING. Thernaos never had anything working. Give over, your argument is factually incorrect.

Also they did deliver some 35k cars and as stated yes its ridiculous that it was only at that price for a short time:

https://electrek.co/2019/04/15/tesla-delivers-35000-model-3/

Once again please please for the sake of your own investment health research cognitive bias. You keep spouting on about a few incidents where the self driving tech has failed and not bothered to compliment or acknowledge the fact it is working the majority of the time and has also saved lives. No other car right now can do what the Tesla does on a consumer level.

Here this will help your investment outlook, you keep bleating on about the same one or two things which are miniscule in affecting tsla in the long run.


For your constant point about the crash, at least expand:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy_of_the_single_cause


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

More realistically a reason to be bearish would be a slow down in economic growth, trouble with lithium and cobalt production, poor customer service, poor pricing model in Europe, failure to deliver promises ON TIME. Continued slow down in sales combined with dwindling cash flows.

Words like Charlatan and Theranos are bizarre and unneeded.

drunkmonkey

They've never made a profit, you can't make 10 million in one quarter and hemerage 700 million in the next one and say you've made a profit.
He's burning through cash at eye watering levels.

Kilboor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They've never made a profit, you can't make 10 million in one quarter and hemerage 700 million in the next one and say you've made a profit.
He's burning through cash at eye watering levels.

Tesla is burning through cash you're right, sales will need to pick up by the year end.

They have made a profit though, making 10 million in a quarter (Which btw is incorrect they madea a lot lot more but keep lying, see below) is still a profit for that quarter. Also see the argument is finally verging towards fundamentals.

Great that all that factually incorrect information spouted by the bears here have been corrected.

Also the profit was 312 million dollars 3rd quarter last year not 10 million, Jesus you guys are annoyingly and embarassingly wrong Also 139 million 4th quarter.

Capex would be big with the new factory and expansion of Model 3 production.

The biggest problem for Tesla is maintaining high sales, I think shutting stores is a bad thing to do.

Sabre Man

phantom_lord wrote: »

It regularly tries to drive people into medians, under trucks, and into fire engines. But impressive spin has people thinking Tesla is a leader in the field and months away from Robotaxis.

It's not self driving yet, so you have to pay attention, just like when using cruise control and any other car really.

New safety features are being released all the time. This was released yesterday:
https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-active-safety-features-autopilot/

What other cars get improved over time?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Laughable that you're arguing that Tesla made a few million profit for a quarter or two, when it lost 1 billion in 2018. 2.25 billion in 2017.. etc
Give over.

Kilboor wrote: »

Tesla is burning through cash you're right, sales will need to pick up by the year end.

They have made a profit though, making 10 million in a quarter (Which btw is incorrect they madea a lot lot more but keep lying, see below) is still a profit for that quarter. Also see the argument is finally verging towards fundamentals.

Great that all that factually incorrect information spouted by the bears here have been corrected.

Also the profit was 312 million dollars 3rd quarter last year not 10 million, Jesus you guys are annoyingly and embarassingly wrong Also 139 million 4th quarter.

Capex would be big with the new factory and expansion of Model 3 production.

The biggest problem for Tesla is maintaining high sales, I think shutting stores is a bad thing to do.

AlmightyCushion

drunkmonkey wrote: »

When you have to start dropping prices and cut your driving range to one of the worst in the industry just to make sales there's a problem.
https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/tesla-gets-creative-with-model-3-pricing-to-qualify-for-federal-electric-vehicle-rebates

Tesla sales are in the bin and are only going one direction as the competition heats up. 2020/2021 are going to be very hard years for Tesla, I don't think they'll survive them.

Did you even read the article? That $44,999 car is so that they are eligible for the $5000 subsidy on their $55,000 car.

Jambonjunior

. You keep spouting on about a few incidents where the self driving tech has failed and not bothered to compliment or acknowledge the fact it is working the majority of the time and has also saved lives. /QUOTE]

You really don't understand how regular this issue is or how much it's been catalogued.

Sabre Man

Jambonjunior wrote: »

. You keep spouting on about a few incidents where the self driving tech has failed and not bothered to compliment or acknowledge the fact it is working the majority of the time and has also saved lives. /QUOTE]

You really don't understand how regular this issue is or how much it's been catalogued.

So how regular is it then?

Kilboor

Jambonjunior wrote: »

. You keep spouting on about a few incidents where the self driving tech has failed and not bothered to compliment or acknowledge the fact it is working the majority of the time and has also saved lives. /QUOTE]

ProjectMoose wrote: »

Laughable that you're arguing that Tesla made a few million profit for a quarter or two, when it lost 1 billion in 2018. 2.25 billion in 2017.. etc
Give over.

You really don't understand how regular this issue is or how much it's been catalogued.

Show me so? Please I'm intrigued, how about you correlate it to other ground breaking technology. Who else has auto pilot to that level in their cars driving around? A lot of these autopilot crashes happened in 2016-2017 and that didn't dissuade consumers so what makes you think as the technology gets better and incidents drop that this would change consumer outlook to negative? Once again you're focusing on a very minor part of Tesla's self driving capabilities and using it as a cognitive bias to say LOOK LOOK TESLA KILL PEOPLE !!! Step back take a breath and look at a company that is basically 10 years old disrupting the car market, it's unheard of. The capex and supply chain requirements alone mean Tesla should not be profiting in ANY quarter never mind two in a row.

Also you've basically showcased yourself that the company is growing,cutting 1 billion off its deficit between 2017 and 2018. And profiting in two quarters, maybe go back to understanding valuation of companies and how capex and growth costs will affect profitability.

To profit with what product and production they currently have is really impressive.


Tesla bears arguments are based on flawed narrow analysis, stick to the fundamentals please.

I will be bearish once competition competes in terms of performance, ostentatious appeal, and software. Right now these are HUGE USPs for Tesla and it would be ridiculous to ignore all this. You are framing your point of view and surronding yourself with negative tesla news to reenforce your bias about crashes, it is not as severe as you make it out to be and furthermore as pointed out they are currenly introducing newer safety measures OTA

drunkmonkey

Lol what's their ROC these days?

Kilboor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Lol what's their ROC these days?

Please inform us and give some analysis on it for the short and long run, thanks that would be beneficial.

Still here deciding my moves on TSLA if any and so far as a long term investment bullish is easily winning.

drunkmonkey

You've had my analysis, they won't be around by the end of 2021. They need to grow sales with an aging model line and competition coming online from all the big guns.
I don't buy the robot taxis and used cars increasing in value bullcrap, stuff of fairytales. Robot taxis will still need drivers or at the very least cleaners after every fare. What they going to do when a junkie jumps in a robot taxi, taxi them to the nearest Garda station? Don't mention the women at weekends.
To quote Trump, Great Idea, Won't Work.

Kilboor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You've had my analysis, they won't be around by the end of 2021. They need to grow sales with an aging model line and competition coming online from all the big guns.
I don't buy the robot taxis and used cars increasing in value bullcrap, stuff of fairytales. Robot taxis will still need drivers or at the very least cleaners after every fare. What they going to do when a junkie jumps in a robot taxi, taxi them to the nearest Garda station? Don't mention the women at weekends.
To quote Trump, Great Idea, Won't Work.

Thanks for that. Slowing sales are an issue but we've yet to see real competition so I think 2021 is a little too soon to write them off.

Robotaxis is far fetched no doubt, maybe in 20 years or maybe 10 years for airport to hotel but not in day to day yes.

Theoretically if FSD is here by next year they could robotaxi prestige guests but as a money making venture that soon, no I agree. Junkies wouldn't know how to hail a Tesla from the app, there'd no doubt be a thorough onboarding process.

drunkmonkey

Why would a prestigious person take a robot taxi in a Tesla. Mercedes Benz with a chauffeur will still be the order of the day in 100 years.
From taking to taxi drivers one of there biggest problems is women wetting the back seat or people puking and refusing to pay for the clean up.

Kilboor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why would a prestigious person take a robot taxi in a Tesla. Mercedes Benz with a chauffeur will still be the order of the day in 100 years.
From taking to taxi drivers one of there biggest problems is women wetting the back seat or people puking and refusing to pay for the clean up.

That's a problem for all taxis though not only Tesla? I don't see your point tbh. As I said the robotaxi should it exist would have a thorough onboarding process, so no junkies and responsibility if anything should happen the car while the passenger is in it.

Simple as really.

True about a prestigious person but as a gimmick for a start no doubt it'll be pricey and popular wherever it's introduced.

drunkmonkey

The point is you still need a person involved unless we're going full Total Recall.

Kilboor

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The point is you still need a person involved unless we're going full Total Recall.

Maybe a person will be involved initially but it's definitely reasonable to assume that it would be possible with no other people in the car too.

Look at Go Car, they trust their users. Why can't robo taxis be any similiar? It's all to do with onboarding.

zpehtsfd

Kilboor wrote: »

Still here deciding my moves on TSLA if any and so far as a long term investment bullish is easily winning.

Kilboor wrote: »

Thanks for that. Slowing sales are an issue but we've yet to see real competition so I think 2021 is a little too soon to write them off.

Robotaxis is far fetched no doubt, maybe in 20 years or maybe 10 years for airport to hotel but not in day to day yes.

Theoretically if FSD is here by next year they could robotaxi prestige guests but as a money making venture that soon, no I agree. Junkies wouldn't know how to hail a Tesla from the app, there'd no doubt be a thorough onboarding process.

Easily winning?

You're deluded.

Kilboor

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Easily winning?

You're deluded.

Wew lad two aspects of the company I'm bearish about.. once again I don't fall into the trap of focusing on one or two things. As a whole the company and car is miles ahead of competition and has solid fundamentals.

Robotaxis is far fetched let's see what happens , I wouldn't be investing on that promise. Also sales dwindled first quarter sure, but let's see how they do this quarter, one slow down does not mean they are doomed.

Everything else leads to positive signs for me, I will consider it further and decide but I honestly do appreciate the complete narrow minded bear opinions, they're at times deluded but you see one or two things come out that are valid points if only they were said without hatred.

zpehtsfd

Kilboor wrote: »

Wew lad two aspects of the company I'm bearish about.. once again I don't fall into the trap of focusing on one or two things. As a whole the company and car is miles ahead of competition and has solid fundamentals.

Robotaxis is far fetched let's see what happens , I wouldn't be investing on that promise. Also sales dwindled first quarter sure, but let's see how they do this quarter, one slow down does not mean they are doomed.

Everything else leads to positive signs for me, I will consider it further and decide but I honestly do appreciate the complete narrow minded bear opinions, they're at times deluded but you see one or two things come out that are valid points if only they were said without hatred.

Musk is a very divisive figure because there are billions of $$ at stake. Bulls point to his genius and bears point to his lack of business acumen. There is no doubt in my mind the guy is a charlatan and to see what he gets away with is infuriating. I've been investing actively for over 25 years and i have never seen such blatant manipulation by someone in his position. Of course the bulls will just say he is a maverick and his ways are unorthodox. I think they're deluded.

Kilboor

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Musk is a very divisive figure because there are billions of $$ at stake. Bulls point to his genius and bears point to his lack of business acumen. There is no doubt in my mind the guy is a charlatan and to see what he gets away with is infuriating. I've been investing actively for over 25 years and i have never seen such blatant manipulation by someone in his position. Of course the bulls will just say he is a maverick and his ways are unorthodox. I think they're deluded.

Charlatan is an incorrect word to use, I beg you don't diminish its meaning by applying it to a dude who is delivering albeit not on time but eventually results.

He is a successful businessman and Tesla today wouldn't exist without him or his funding. The word charlatan is a bizarre bizarre choice to describe him.

He gets away with it because he has built a product people want, the product being made and delivered is what people want and what they expected. This is a fundamental concept of business and he is delivering.

When you see a model 3 self driving in Ireland within the next 3 years please come back and reexamine your wording. He misses estimated delivery times - yes, but he does deliver.

drunkmonkey

Charlatan is incorrect more like..

phantom_lord

I don't understand how you don't see solar city as the work of a charlatan. He demonstrated a working product and used it as an excuse to bail out him and his family, and it turned out it was all made up and not viable. He blew a ton of shareholder money on it and quietly cancelled the product? You keep talking about bias, why are you ignoring that?

Or Musk saying he had the cash to go private. If you look at the history of the company it's one lie after another to keep people on board. Right now it it's Robotaxis even though he's last in autonomous driving. When you see the history it makes it easier to see what this is. A desperate attempt to revalue the company as something else, that's why on the calls he keep directing everything back to that. Check what he says versus every other CEO, you're not up with the facts on this.

The market didn't even fully believe him with his 420 comment or it would have traded much closer to that price.

Secondly, you want the conversation to go back to the fundamentals? If you looked at the numbers for the last profitable quarter you'd understand why it isn't meaningful and why it wasn't replicated

As a whole the company and car is miles ahead of competition and has solid
fundamentals.

Ah here. They're miles ahead at burning cash. What's solid about their fundamentals? Why is the stock down so much on the year while the rest of the market is at all time highs?

GM and WAymo have operational fleets running in cities, Ford has solved snow when Tesla hasn't even looked at it. Tesla are last in terms of tech. But they've got a chip and a great presentation!!!!

appreciate the complete narrow minded bear opinions, they're at times deluded but you see one or two things come out that are valid points if only they were said without hatred.

Ha. The bears are the only thing keeping the thread sane. Go back and see how often people wanted to jump into Tesla, or believed what Musk was saying. It's the people that believe in robotaxis and 500bn valuation that are deluded. People were talking about missing the price at 300+/. Look at the trade data, instutions a getting out of Tesla, and unsophisticated Robinhood users are jumping in to hold the bag.

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Musk is a very divisive figure because there are billions of $$ at stake. Bulls point to his genius and bears point to his lack of business acumen. There is no doubt in my mind the guy is a charlatan and to see what he gets away with is infuriating. I've been investing actively for over 25 years and i have never seen such blatant manipulation by someone in his position. Of course the bulls will just say he is a maverick and his ways are unorthodox. I think they're deluded.

There were bulls saying it was a genius time to raise. At 2 year lows, the man can do no wrong in some eyes.

When you see a model 3 self driving in Ireland within the next 3 years please

If Tesla is around in 3 years in its current form feel free to bump this thread and quote this post.

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

I don't understand how you don't see solar city as the work of a charlatan. He demonstrated a working product and used it as an excuse to bail out him and his family, and it turned out it was all made up and not viable. He blew a ton of shareholder money on it and quietly cancelled the product? You keep talking about bias, why are you ignoring that?

Or Musk saying he had the cash to go private. If you look at the history of the company it's one lie after another to keep people on board. Right now it it's Robotaxis even though he's last in autonomous driving. When you see the history it makes it easier to see what this is. A desperate attempt to revalue the company as something else, that's why on the calls he keep directing everything back to that. Check what he says versus every other CEO, you're not up with the facts on this.

The market didn't even fully believe him with his 420 comment or it would have traded much closer to that price.

Secondly, you want the conversation to go back to the fundamentals? If you looked at the numbers for the last profitable quarter you'd understand why it isn't meaningful and why it wasn't replicated



Ah here. They're miles ahead at burning cash. What's solid about their fundamentals? Why is the stock down so much on the year while the rest of the market is at all time highs?




Ha. The bears are the only thing keeping the thread sane. Go back and see how often people wanted to jump into Tesla, or believed what Musk was saying. It's the people that believe in robotaxis and 500bn valuation that are deluded. People were talking about missing the price at 300+/. Look at the trade data, instutions a getting out of Tesla, and unsophisticated Robinhood users are jumping in to hold the bag.



There were bulls saying it was a genius time to raise. At 2 year lows, the man can do no wrong in some eyes.



If Tesla is around in 3 years in its current form feel free to bump this thread and quote this post.

So now you're nitpicking solar city? A while ago you bears were saying to focus on Tesla and I obliged. I agree with your solar city point, but again it doesn't make him a charlatan. Bears are great for a thread but more constructive analysis in front of blind hatred would be great. Let's get some figures and charts instead of calling the man a charlatan which once again is incorrect.

I will happily bump your post in three years if its still around, either way - existing or not I will be in the money believe me. I hedge my bets and have never owned Tesla stock outside of a quick day trade.

Tempted at current prices due to prediction of quarter on quarter increase in sales and the completion of the new Gigafactory.

phantom_lord

Nitpicking? It was fraud. They're not mass producing the product. It's part of Tesla. In a long line of similar frauds. And FSD is just the same. Charging people for years for a product that he won't deliver. How is pointing out these facts blind hated?

You agree about Solar City but you don't believe that makes him a charlatan...what? How does that logic work?



Ok, charts, how about this



Sales are looking like <60k right now , now that they've fulfilled all the pent up demand in Europe.

Tempted at current prices due to prediction of quarter on quarter increase in sales and the completion of the new Gigafactory.

Based on Musk said? Gigafactory timeline is fantasy according to industries experts. Long line of tales told by Musk.

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

Nitpicking? It was fraud. They're not mass producing the product. It's part of Tesla. In a long line of similar frauds. And FSD is just the same. Charging people for years for a product that he won't deliver. How is pointing out these facts blind hated?

You agree about Solar City but you don't believe that makes him a charlatan...what? How does that logic work?



Ok, charts, how about this



Sales are looking like <60k right now , now that they've fulfilled all the pent up demand in Europe.

If it's fraud then SEC will prosecute that's not up for the shareholders to decide Hopefully they will conclude and punish if fraud occurs, after that its settled. Him buying solar city does not make him a charlatan, look up the definition of the word.

Call him a liar or over ambitious it's more appropriate to your point. You can't claim FSD is the same that's not factual, parts of FSD are usable RIGHT NOW and he has claimed FSD will be ready by next year not now.

Currently seeking funding with that chart based of pure sales and no funding. If it breaks 66k sales that's healthy, might with reservations alone from UK and Ireland. UK is a potential huge market.



Gigafactory update:

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-gigafactory-3-drone-video-update/

Interesting spotted this, stepping aside from Tesla:

https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-shortage-battery-minerals-nickle-copper-lithium/

Possible shortages building up again? I have plays in the cobalt market atm, about my only exposure to the EV market.

phantom_lord

You don't think presenting a fake product is the work of a charlatan? What would he need for you do to think he is? He used that presentation to sell the takeover to shareholders. I don't really know what to say to you here.

he has claimed FSD will be ready by next year not now.

Yes he's been claiming it as "coming next year" for a long time now. I dunno how people keep falling for the same tactic but it obv works.