Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Sabre Man

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

>Lithium


No.


It's cobalt that is scarce, not lithium.


We reached the limit of what's physically possible with battery technology. It's all downhill from here.


There will be lots of cheap oil so ICEs are not going anywhere. There will always be hipsters who prefer to drive a forklift but for the majority of people it's not worth the expense.


It might be mandated by frau Merkel that all densely populated areas only allow battery cars like in China - that's when there would be some merit in this electric revolution nonsense.

Oil is going out of fashion due to pollution, just like coal. It's just a matter of time.

If you really think EVs are like forklifts you really have no idea and should try one.

TimeToShine

I think what people forget is that manufacturing cars is difficult - the likes of VW, GE, Ford have supply chain logistics and manufacturing processes nailed down after decades, and they produce well-built cars like candy. Tesla delivering 50k vehicles in a year is not the same as delivering millions, all to the same high quality finish and on time, and part of the problem is that this is already being priced in if not taken for granted in their stock price. Ramping up production is not easy nor is it a linear process, you run out of space, you need new equipment, all your suppliers have to ramp up at the same rate, not to mention then delivering a uniformly quality product at scale all without the inevitable mass hitches that come with disruptive technology like electric vehicles. Where Tesla are miles ahead is their charging infrastructure in the US and their UI, they have also recently applied for an energy supplier license in the UK which implies taking a punt at vertical integration which can be interesting.

I wouldn't discount the big automotive manufacturers like some are doing here - they have plenty of cash, a big R&D budget and the added advantage of an infrastructure to build, ship and move these products. They may be behind Tesla on technology but the gap is narrowing as battery tech reaches an inflection point and the spend required to improve incrementally becomes more and more difficult to justify.

Thargor

TimeToShine wrote: »

I think what people forget is that manufacturing cars is difficult - the likes of VW, GE, Ford have supply chain logistics and manufacturing processes nailed down after decades, and they produce well-built cars like candy. Tesla delivering 50k vehicles in a year is not the same as delivering millions, all to the same high quality finish and on time, and part of the problem is that this is already being priced in if not taken for granted in their stock price. Ramping up production is not easy nor is it a linear process, you run out of space, you need new equipment, all your suppliers have to ramp up at the same rate, not to mention then delivering a uniformly quality product at scale all without the inevitable mass hitches that come with disruptive technology like electric vehicles. Where Tesla are miles ahead is their charging infrastructure in the US and their UI, they have also recently applied for an energy supplier license in the UK which implies taking a punt at vertical integration which can be interesting.

I wouldn't discount the big automotive manufacturers like some are doing here - they have plenty of cash, a big R&D budget and the added advantage of an infrastructure to build, ship and move these products. They may be behind Tesla on technology but the gap is narrowing as battery tech reaches an inflection point and the spend required to improve incrementally becomes more and more difficult to justify.

Ignoring the difference between EV and ICE drivetrains there a bit tbh.

phantom_lord

antimatterx wrote: »

I feel like the Tesla is the current buy and hold long term stock. It's going to be an Amazon/Microsoft/Apple type of company. I have faith in Elon. The only thing is I feel like there will be plenty of times where it will suddenly drop as Elon will say something stupid.

If I wasn't saving for an apartment I'd put 5-10K in and let it sit.

Amzon/MSFT/Apple all massively dominate their industries and are massively profitable. While Tesla has lost billions making a tiny % of the car market.

They don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath.

Solar roofs/autopilot/semitrailer are all fantasy stock pumps.

unkel

phantom_lord wrote: »

They don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath.

Solar roofs/autopilot/semitrailer are all fantasy stock pumps.

You'll still be in this thread saying the same thing when TSLA hits USD10,000

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

Amzon/MSFT/Apple all massively dominate their industries and are massively profitable. While Tesla has lost billions making a tiny % of the car market.

They don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath.

Solar roofs/autopilot/semitrailer are all fantasy stock pumps.

I remember you from when I used to post in this thread a year or so ago. Hope you closed that short position in time!:D

FFVII

Nikola was nearly worth the same as Ford when it launched last week.

They never even sold a truck.

phantom_lord

Kilboor wrote: »

I remember you from when I used to post in this thread a year or so ago. Hope you closed that short position in time!:D

Yeah I got short again Wednesday.

Arrival

phantom_lord wrote: »

Amzon/MSFT/Apple all massively dominate their industries and are massively profitable. While Tesla has lost billions making a tiny % of the car market.

They don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath.

Solar roofs/autopilot/semitrailer are all fantasy stock pumps.

This doesn't look like fantasy to me: https://youtu.be/zRnSmw1i_DQ

Said this on here before but it seems like a lot of people seem to either be unaware of or disregard how valuable the autopilot infrastructure Tesla has is. A single Tesla car is driving around with so many sensors on it, using accurate GPS mapping to match its location to what those sensors see in the area, so there is regular data getting compounded for where that car drives, and the autopilot features get upgraded accordingly to make them better and safer. When you consider how every Tesla sold is doing the same thing, you can't help but imagine how this will help them leap towards making proper automation a reality. They make money from each car sold, but continue increasing their value directly from each car actually being put to use. The more cars sold and driving around, the more data gathered and analysed and features polished even more

Is there any other manufacturer managing to do similar at this level right now?

phantom_lord

Arrival wrote: »

This doesn't look like fantasy to me: https://youtu.be/zRnSmw1i_DQ

Said this on here before but it seems like a lot of people seem to either be unaware of or disregard how valuable the autopilot infrastructure Tesla has is. A single Tesla car is driving around with so many sensors on it, using accurate GPS mapping to match its location to what those sensors see in the area, so there is regular data getting compounded for where that car drives, and the autopilot features get upgraded accordingly to make them better and safer. When you consider how every Tesla sold is doing the same thing, you can't help but imagine how this will help them leap towards making proper automation a reality. They make money from each car sold, but continue increasing their value directly from each car actually being put to use. The more cars sold and driving around, the more data gathered and analysed and features polished even more

Is there any other manufacturer managing to do similar at this level right now?

This has all been discussed already in the thread a few times.

The data that the likes of Waymo have is far more valuable than what Tesla has.

Musk promised a Tesla would self drive across the country by...2017. Still waiting. Meanwhile Tesla's are still self driving into trucks at high speed.

Robo taxies due any day now.

garrettod

phantom_lord wrote: »

...
Musk promised a Tesla would self drive across the country by...2017. Still waiting. Meanwhile Tesla's are still self driving into trucks at high speed.

Robo taxies due any day now.

So his time lines are too ambitious, but you've got to set targets to aim for.

The reality is that he's got factories producing his electric cars every week, when they were once only a dream. These cars now pass us on the roads, every day.

Likewise, his SpaceX project has just started putting people into space.

So, no one can say that he's not making serious progress, albeit not on every project, or to the timeliness he first hoped for.

What he's going for is radical, market changing stuff, so there'll always be big obstacles to overcome. The question is whether or not he can deliver and at this stage, you'd have to say that he can (at least to a lot larger an extent than many others out there).

I think taking a small stake in Tesla and leaving it for the long term, is the way to go. It's difficult, to avoid the distractions of the notable price fluctuations, but as time goes on, the company will mature further and speculators will find other stocks to play with, so the price will become less volatile.

unkel

The Model 3 is already the best selling car in several countries. Despite it being very expensive (twice the price of a decent family size car after incentives) and a saloon. An outdated and unpopular form factor. Model Y is out now for barely more money and it's bigger, is a hatchback and you could even call it a cross over. It will be hugely popular. And hugely profitable for Tesla. A year or two ago I expected the competition to have (almost) caught up by now. But it doesn't look like it. The only competitor is VAG but the gap does not seem to be closing.

sk8board

unkel wrote: »

The Model 3 is already the best selling car in several countries. Despite it being very expensive (twice the price of a decent family size car after incentives) and a saloon. An outdated and unpopular form factor. Model Y is out now for barely more money and it's bigger, is a hatchback and you could even call it a cross over. It will be hugely popular. And hugely profitable for Tesla. A year or two ago I expected the competition to have (almost) caught up by now. But it doesn't look like it. The only competitor is VAG but the gap does not seem to be closing.

Agreed. The only thing that might change that is if Tesla sales are still reliant on fanboys and folks on years of waiting lists (I think they are), and let’s see what happens when those people all get their car and they are reliant on the wider market for their sales.
e.g There aren't many Kia or VW fanboys dying for delivery of their Kona or ID3

lucky john

phantom_lord wrote: »

This has all been discussed already in the thread a few times.

The data that the likes of Waymo have is far more valuable than what Tesla has.

Musk promised a Tesla would self drive across the country by...2017. Still waiting. Meanwhile Tesla's are still self driving into trucks at high speed.

What Waymo and Tesla are doing are completely different. Waymo are mapping small areas and then basically programming the map into the cars memory so it can drive the route. So if a city was to change the road lay out the car would have to be reprogrammed.

Tesla are teaching the car how to drive anywhere, much the same way as a learner driver would learn. While each learner driver must learn for themselves Tesla cars teach each other.

A Tesla could drive across the US now but state laws have not caught up with
the technology yet anyway.

After 100 years of cars on the roads drivers are still crashing into trucks at full speed. That's true even of drivers in a Tesla. I thinks Tesla deserves more than 5 years to solve that problem.

OwlsZat

lucky john wrote: »

Waymo are mapping small areas and then basically programming the map into the cars memory so it can drive the route.

That's completely incorrect.

Have a read of https://waymo.com/tech/

lucky john

OwlsZat wrote: »

That's completely incorrect.

Have a read of https://waymo.com/tech/

Did you look at the link you sent me. It says exactly what I said.

Please read slide 1...Our test locations and slide 2...Where am I.

If you want to see the exact details of my 2 line summary then here you go..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SCj3S3ZoOU

OwlsZat

lucky john wrote: »

Waymo are mapping small areas and then basically programming the map into the cars memory so it can drive the route. So if a city was to change the road lay out the car would have to be reprogrammed.

As I said already that's completely incorrect. The car doesn't have a route programmed into it's memory and if a city was to change the road layout it wouldn't need to be reprogrammed.

The Waymo cars are more full of sensors than any other car. Lidar, cameras, radar. Check it out here. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/03/introducing-5th-generation-waymo-driver.html

They are also plugging it into their Google maps data which can have extra layers added to it in your case you've picked up that they have mapped some extra curb data into it.

You have to think of every car as a sensor. Each sensor is collecting more data which is making the future decisions better each time. The more data sources the better the decisions. It's one of the reasons Google will ultimately win the self driving race. Tesla is along way behind others in the self driving race.
https://www.wired.com/story/california-self-driving-cars-log-most-miles/

I like Tesla. Just wouldn't bother hyping there self driving efforts.

unkel

OwlsZat wrote: »

The more data sources the better the decisions. It's one of the reasons Google will ultimately win the self driving race. Tesla is along way behind others in the self driving race.
https://www.wired.com/story/california-self-driving-cars-log-most-miles/

I do agree with you that whoever has most data will ultimately win. Not sure what makes you think Google has more data sources though. That article is flawed as it only takes into consideration the number of self driving vehicles. Tesla doesn't have any. Yet it is collecting data from the vast majority of cars they have ever made. Clocking up billions of miles. This is way more than any of the other companies.

TimeToShine

unkel wrote: »

I do agree with you that whoever has most data will ultimately win. Not sure what makes you think Google has more data sources though. That article is flawed as it only takes into consideration the number of self driving vehicles. Tesla doesn't have any. Yet it is collecting data from the vast majority of cars they have ever made. Clocking up billions of miles. This is way more than any of the other companies.

Google has half the world's population identifying zebra crossings, traffic lights and fire hydrants for them through Captcha, all of which is going straight into their machine learning testing. That's real human capability being farmed out on a mass scale, Tesla can't compete with that.

I like Tesla, I bought into them a long time ago and still have a few shares, but they are overvalued at the moment and they can't do everything.

unkel

That's a misconception, GPS data from phones is not accurate enough to have any value for self driving. And there is no point trying to identify every object in the world for self-driving, the trick is to get the car to be able to drive anywhere (like a human)

Arrival

TimeToShine wrote: »

Google has half the world's population identifying zebra crossings, traffic lights and fire hydrants for them through Captcha, all of which is going straight into their machine learning testing. That's real human capability being farmed out on a mass scale, Tesla can't compete with that.

I like Tesla, I bought into them a long time ago and still have a few shares, but they are overvalued at the moment and they can't do everything.

I had never heard about or thought about this before, if that's actually what they do with those captcha tests then it's brilliant

unkel

Ah, apologies, I thought he meant phone GPS data.

FFVII

Arrival wrote: »

I had never heard about or thought about this before, if that's actually what they do with those captcha tests then it's brilliant

Originally it had no purpose other than the bots, then the guy that invented it thought jeez what a waste (cough, bitcoin) so the Google Books scanning project had a huge error rate back then (since sued into oblivion) so badly scanned or faded words were captched. Show a badly faded word to people and if enough people think it's X then it probably is X.


So Books was gone so they moved onto hard to read house numbers from Google Street and yup now they are doing Hydrants and stuff to apparently be fed into self driving but on most sites now it's invisible - it's original funtion was to stop bots, they have it set up now that they know by how you move the mouse if you're a bot or not. You'll maybe only see a captcha every 4 days or so now.

In other news - you should really keep an eye on this site to keep you up to date - https://news.ycombinator.com/ Unforgivable you don't know captcha purpose (shakes fist)

Gardner

Tesla entering into the MOU with AVZ minerals in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Drill results are top dollar. Gone out to tender now on the facilities for mining. if you can get on.... get on!

positron

Arrival wrote: »

I had never heard about or thought about this before, if that's actually what they do with those captcha tests then it's brilliant

There's a really good interview with the man who originally developed Captcha - Luis von Ann - on NPR How I built this podcast:

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/22/860884062/recaptcha-and-duolingo-luis-von-ahn?t=1593162730653

It's an amazing story of just one guy (and his research assistant) achieving what Yahoo couldn't, and then giving it away for free! He's also the brain behind DuoLingo. Worth a listen.

Google has moved onto reCaptcha though. So while CAPTCHA was a reasonably noble idea of harnessing real human intelligence to solve difficult problems that computers couldn't figure out - reCaptcha is more about improving the quality of Google's own tracking users across the internet for data mining / learning user behaviors and other such not-so-clear reasons. Google is... scary to say the least.

el diablo

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-posts-abysmal-score-jd-powers-initial-quality-study-2020

Even worse than Land Rover, Jaguar. :eek:

Tesla Posts Abysmal Score In J.D. Power's Initial Quality Study For 2020

unkel

el diablo wrote: »

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-posts-abysmal-score-jd-powers-initial-quality-study-2020

Even worse than Land Rover, Jaguar. :eek:

Shows how close together the quality of new cars is these days more than anything. From 1.4 issues per car (best) to 2.5 issues per car (worst: Tesla)

Teslas are far more complicated than average and then interesting point is there is rarely anything wrong with Teslas on the complicated tech issues. It's basic stuff like panel gaps and paint issues and shoddy panel fittings mostly. Literally beginners problems of a new mass manufacturer.

Not talking this down BTW, those above issues are appalling when you are taking delivery of your brand new car that you just forked out 50k for.

bfa1509

Not a fan of Elon Musk nor electric cars myself but I've noticed a whole load of 201 Tesla's appear in Galway since I went back to work if that's anything to go by. Extremely rare to see up until a year ago.

I think silly season for Tesla has yet to come.

Sabre Man

Great analysis of the J.D. Power survey by Tesla Daily.

lucky john

$1220 premarket. What's the opposite to "catching a falling knife"

90,000 deliveries despite covid shut down. On the brink of S&P inclusion.