Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Mad_maxx

out since around $670 myself , got in big @$350 in september , while kicking myself for not riding the bubble longer , had it gone the other way , id be doing the same , impossible to value something like this as rationale has long left the building

Tesla shares inflating while VAG shares only modestly growing despite VAG products being the best selling products in the market with the most sophisticated EV consumers in the world.
https://www.electrive.com/2021/01/05/norway-registers-13718-new-bevs-in-december/
Between e-tron variants, Taycan, id3, e-golf and the Up triplets VW are the strongest EV manufacturer in Norway. They have a global footprint that Tesla can only dream of.
There is no logic to Tesla's share price.

unkel

To paraphrase your post there, haphaphap: I don't own Tesla shares, but I do own Volkswagen shares.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

............
There is no logic to Tesla's share price.

Indeed, it's all ifs and buts.
The fanboys will claim to know more about finance than finance folk of course and price to earning ratios etc don't mean anything really because of you know, elon this and elon that :pac:

..and the VW ID4 and Skoda Enyaq are only just rolling off the production line in December 2020.
Model Y has been cannibalizing Model 3 sales and I can't see who'd buy a Model Y over these new VAG models. At the lower end ID3, ID4 and Enyaq will take the sales while at the high end the Audi E-trons will take the sales.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

Tesla shares inflating while VAG shares only modestly growing despite VAG products being the best selling products in the market with the most sophisticated EV consumers in the world.
https://www.electrive.com/2021/01/05/norway-registers-13718-new-bevs-in-december/
Between e-tron variants, Taycan, id3, e-golf and the Up triplets VW are the strongest EV manufacturer in Norway. They have a global footprint that Tesla can only dream of.
There is no logic to Tesla's share price.

volkswagen has been a rubbish stock to own for years , as has every other auto stock , add to that TESLA dominates the EV markets in america and China , The two most important markets

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

volkswagen has been a rubbish stock to own for years , as has every other auto stock , add to that TESLA dominates the EV markets in america and China , The two most important markets

And VW, now that they have turned their attention to the market, will destroy Teslas sales around the world regardless of whether you think they are a rubbish stock or not.
They're neck and neck with Toyota as the largest manufacturer in the world.

unkel

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, it's all ifs and buts.
The fanboys will claim to know more about finance than finance folk of course and price to earning ratios etc don't mean anything really because of you know, elon this and elon that :pac:

Everything in the stock market is irrational, surely you know that. I bought Tesla once, when it was very low, and sold soon after for a 50% profit. Thought I did well. You can never lose when you make a profit right - didn't your man from Nebraska say something like that?

If I had held onto them and sold today, that would have been my pension fund sorted. Hindsight, eh? Rationalism eh? Fanboism eh?

It's the way of the world. And it turns out those Tesla hodling fanbois were either lucky or had a far better grasp of what was likely to happen in the world in the short to medium term than you or I did. Probably both.

unkel

Deleted User wrote: »

And VW, now that they have turned their attention to the market, will destroy Teslas sales around the world regardless of whether you think they are a rubbish stock or not.
They're neck and neck with Toyota as the largest manufacturer in the world.

Hope you are right about a glorious future for VW. We need at least a second big company to pull the transition to EVs, Tesla can't do it alone, even though they are now one of the top 10 most valuable companies in the world. Looks like Toyota might be a goner. Unless they have a solid state battery trick up their sleeves (I doubt it). See my sig

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

And VW, now that they have turned their attention to the market, will destroy Teslas sales around the world regardless of whether you think they are a rubbish stock or not.
They're neck and neck with Toyota as the largest manufacturer in the world.

there EV offerings are too expensive to sell well in america , a new Tesla model 3 is $35000 in america

the european auto market is quite different to every other one so just because Tesla are not the number one seller in Holland , doesnt tell us anything really

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

there EV offerings are too expensive to sell well in america , a new Tesla model 3 is $35000 in america

the european auto market is quite different to every other one so just because Tesla are not the number one seller in Holland , doesnt tell us anything really

Their ID4 is undercutting the Model Y by a huge amount. It is only hitting the market just now.
If you are invested do yourself a favour and do your research and balance your portfolio to limit exposure to this risky stock.
https://www.torquenews.com/11826/volkswagen-launches-id-4-significantly-undercuts-tesla-s-model-y-price

unkel

Mad_maxx wrote: »

just because Tesla are not the number one seller in Holland

Actually, they are. The best selling EV in the Netherlands in 2020 were:

1. Tesla Model 3
2. Tesla Model S

unkel

unkel wrote: »

Everything in the stock market is irrational, surely you know that. ......................

I'd look at the likes of Coca Cola and see the stock market being irrational ..... I'd use the Coca Cola share price relative to the PE ratio to illustrate that irrational behaviour.

Tesla is an entirely different level of irrational, it makes no sense on any level........ surely you know that.

I referred to tesla fanboys btw, not Tesla holding fanbois ..... I wasn't excluding non holders who are fanboys.

Johnny_Fontane

I'm shorting Tesla as of today.

Not for much mind you, but its doubled since November think there will be some profit taking.

unkel

Augeo wrote: »

I'd look at the likes of Coca Cola and see the stock market being irrational ..... I'd use the Coca Cola share price relative to the PE ratio to illustrate that irrational behaviour.

Yeah, like Warren Buffet. He too missed out on pretty much every single stock that entered the global top 10 in market cap in the last few decades.

(not that I managed to get in to any of them in any meaningful way - I wouldn't be posting here otherwise )

Thargor

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

I'm shorting Tesla as of today.

Not for much mind you, but its doubled since November think there will be some profit taking.

What sort of numbers are you thinking of if you dont mind me asking?

garrettod

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

I'm shorting Tesla as of today.

Not for much mind you, but its doubled since November think there will be some profit taking.

Good luck with that...

You've about 100 million Americans buying more and more of the stock every day, in the belief that its the next American success story, after Apple. That's before I mention people in other parts of the world.

Now that Tesla is part of the S&P500, your unlikely to see the bottom fall out of the share, anytime soon. However, that said, I'm expecting profit taking once it touches 900, so you may get a brief window in the next week or two

sk8board

I don’t trade Tesla as my charting tool simply melts when I look at it. It’s the most irrational of the irrational, but if you want to learn what drives shares, it’s a great chance to.

Is it possible to see what % of floating shares are in the hands of retail investors?
I see on Degiro’s annual report they were the top 3 traded share in nearly every country worldwide.

Is there a comparison here with BTC I wonder - where retail investors saw it as the next big thing in 2017, got burned, and haven’t returned in nearly the same numbers this time around
What happens when the Musk coolade effect wears off? That will happen eventually - there’s nothing more certain. Very few people hold the people’s imagination captive for long, and let’s face it Musk is clearly an a$$hole underneath the genius!

Tesla will have to find someone else in Europe to buy co2 credits from them because FIAT won't be.

FIAT merged with PSA to form Stellantis.
FIAT now have an electric 500 and can also offset against a large number of various Citroen, Peugeot, Opel and DS electric models from 2021 onward.

https://www.electrive.com/2019/05/05/fca-deal-to-buy-co2-credits-from-tesla-going-ahead/
It this article from 2019 it says:
"It now appears as if FCA will indeed go ahead and buy CO2 credits worth €1.8bn from Tesla – at least in 2020."
then later says:
"The FT quotes chief executive Mike Manley saying that about 80 per cent of FCA’s CO2 compliance would come from purchasing credits from Tesla in 2020, falling to around 15 per cent in 2021 as the company’s sale of battery and hybrid vehicles grew."
If I read that right they buy 1.8bn of credits in 2020 and 337million in 2021 so that is €1.5bn less income for Tesla.
I'd be surprised if they even get 337 million as PSA are constraining supply of their EVs to cover their CO2 obligations. I'm waiting on a PSA EV where the waiting list is over 40 weeks. They'll build more and give Tesla as little as possible.
Of course some of the regulatory credits are for the US but in the US both GM and Ford are pushing ahead with building enough EVs in coming years to fulfill their own requirements.

ted1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Their ID4 is undercutting the Model Y by a huge amount. It is only hitting the market just now.
If you are invested do yourself a favour and do your research and balance your portfolio to limit exposure to this risky stock.
https://www.torquenews.com/11826/volkswagen-launches-id-4-significantly-undercuts-tesla-s-model-y-price

That’s not like for like. The range is very different as is the performance , although Tesla just launched a cheaper model Y which has a more comparable Range and reduced performance ( less engines ). About 3k difference in price. And more readily available

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.caranddriver.com/news/amp35162425/2021-tesla-model-y-standard-range-announced/

more on Tesla co2 credits: https://archive.is/4yiqc
It isn't good regarding credits. co2 credits are pure profit on emissions that aren't produced.

FFVII

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/manufacturing/elon-musk-overtakes-jeff-bezos-to-claim-title-of-world-s-richest-person-1.4452507?mode=amp

sk8board

sk8board wrote: »

I don’t trade Tesla as my charting tool simply melts when I look at it. It’s the most irrational of the irrational, but if you want to learn what drives shares, it’s a great chance to.

Is it possible to see what % of floating shares are in the hands of retail investors?
I see on Degiro’s annual report they were the top 3 traded share in nearly every country worldwide.

Is there a comparison here with BTC I wonder - where retail investors saw it as the next big thing in 2017, got burned, and haven’t returned in nearly the same numbers this time around
What happens when the Musk coolade effect wears off? That will happen eventually - there’s nothing more certain. Very few people hold the people’s imagination captive for long, and let’s face it Musk is clearly an a$$hole underneath the genius!

Another example last night of the Musk coolade effect on retail investors:
“Elon Musk promotes Signal app, leading to 1,100% gain in unrelated stock“

Mad_maxx

at this stage , i would not be surprised if it gets to a thousand by the end of the month , it could also then be at $500 by the end of februrary

pajosjunkbox

Mad_maxx wrote:

out since around $670 myself , got in big @$350 in september , while kicking myself for not riding the bubble longer , had it gone the other way , id be doing the same , impossible to value something like this as rationale has long left the building

I got in at $150 pre share split in 2016. Sold in November at $ 2000. Kicking myself now. I should have sold half and held half just out of interest alone. Don't think I'll ever see a share like it. Never in my wildest dreams did I expect it to do so well.

richie123

Mad_maxx wrote: »

at this stage , i would not be surprised if it gets to a thousand by the end of the month , it could also then be at $500 by the end of februrary

Or less.

feelings

Anyone still following LPD? Hello my old friend!

hottipper

feelings wrote: »

Anyone still following LPD? Hello my old friend!

do we have a list?
lpd
pll
lthm

Any i missed?

sk8board

Musk has been in touch with Michael Saylor recently and tweeting about Bitcoin.
I wonder will he move some of Tesla’s cash on the balance sheet to btc?
Saylor has a virtual conference aimed at corporations on this exact topic on the 3rd/4th Feb.

fricatus

sk8board wrote: »

I wonder will he move some of Tesla’s cash on the balance sheet to btc?

I'm sure corporate governance rules, due diligence, the board, etc. will stop him from doing this (if he's even giving it serious consideration). Bitcoin is a speculative asset with no underlying intrinsic worth, not backed by taxes or a central bank, etc. It could fall as spectacularly as it has risen, and it would be an extraordinarily foolish move to put any portion of Tesla's cash into BTC. Let him do it with his own money, he has plenty of it.

Tesla's free cash should be invested for growth or else returned to shareholders, end of.