Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Roonbox

Huge correction for Tesla shares last 2 days -

BAAA RAM EWE

Roonbox wrote: »

Huge correction for Tesla shares last 2 days -

Thought it was up with M3 being ahead of schedule.

Sabre Man

BAAA RAM EWE wrote: »

Thought it was up with M3 being ahead of schedule.

Ahead of schedule, but not that many Model 3s will be delivered in the coming months even if everything goes as planned.

A few more reasons:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/tesla-shares-plunge-12-percent-this-week-on-disappointing-deliveries.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-idUSKBN19Q2VA

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs cut its six-month price target on Tesla to $180 from $190. Andrew Left of short seller Citron Research told CNBC in a phone interview that he thinks that is fair in the short term.

http://www.teslarati.com/reasons-behind-teslas-12-percent-stock-decline-this-week/

On the bright side:

Tesla delivers 22,000 vehicles in Q2, June marks best month in history
http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-delivers-22000-vehicles-q2-june-best-month-history/

And better performance. I will be getting one of these in a couple of months.
https://electrek.co/2017/07/01/tesla-new-performance-enhancements-model-s-model-x/

Sabre Man

Elon Musk says Tesla is building the largest battery system in the world within 100 days — or it's free

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/07/tesla-largest-battery-system-in-the-world-elon-musk-says.html

Roonbox

Sabre Man wrote: »

Elon Musk says Tesla is building the largest battery system in the world within 100 days — or it's free

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/07/tesla-largest-battery-system-in-the-world-elon-musk-says.html

The guy is a marketing genius

Sabre Man

Roonbox wrote: »

The guy is a marketing genius

True, but it could backfire badly.

b4bmm

The result pullback was due to lower than guided sales in the last quarter. Reason given was battery constraints.

I would guess that more priority was given to either this South Australia battery contract and/or having a surplus of Model 3 battery so the launch over the next few months is successful. If that launch gets off on the wrong foot it will have a much worse impact on SP than this recent pullback.

Sabre Man

b4bmm wrote: »

The result pullback was due to lower than guided sales in the last quarter. Reason given was battery constraints.

I would guess that more priority was given to either this South Australia battery contract and/or having a surplus of Model 3 battery so the launch over the next few months is successful. If that launch gets off on the wrong foot it will have a much worse impact on SP than this recent pullback.

Model 3 will use a different battery cells than Model S and X, so I don't think this will affect Model S and X battery production.
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-s-new-2170-cell-packs-more-power

"The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines," the company said.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-car-deliveries-for-the-second-quarter-2017-7?r=US&IR=T

Francie Barrett

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-skid-is-coming-at-the-worst-time-1499446957

When the story of Tesla is finally written, this week will be seen as a crucial juncture. On Friday, the electric car company started production on its highly anticipated Model 3, one day after its stock briefly fell into a bear market.

The week’s 13% share-price decline as of Friday morning brings the company’s financial position into fresh focus given its historic reliance on the equity market. At first glance, the company has plenty of cash on hand—more than $4 billion as of March 31. But that is likely to go quickly.

Tesla’s free cash outflow was $622 million in the first quarter. Since Tesla delivered fewer cars in the second quarter than in the first, there is a decent chance that number will worsen. Tesla said Friday that about 3,500 cars were in transit to customers at the end of June, the lowest tally in five quarters.

Sabre Man

Tesla Welcomes Linda Johnson Rice and James Murdoch as New Independent Directors to its Board
https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/blog/tesla-welcomes-linda-johnson-rice-and-james-murdoch-new-independent-directors-its-board

Appointing Murdoch has not gone down well with many Tesla fans and Model 3 reservation holders.

Thargor

Id say James Murdoch is a pretty cynical attempt to get positive media coverage.

Prezatch

CEO of Shell says his next car will be electric. Said it on Bloomberg TV when asked would Shell be diversifying into electric companies… Mr oil. is not confident in the future of his industry

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-27/shell-ceo-van-beurden-says-his-next-car-will-be-electric

Up lithium!

Raoul

I have no shares at the moment and I have no knowledge of how to go about investing. But I do realise that EV are the future and I want to invest in it somehow and potentially make some money. I have read the thread but what would be the beginner advice? What are other people doing? Sorry, I am not very clued up but I am just starting my research and any help is greatly appreciated.

Sabre Man

Model 3 is out!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzT0uNT0ds8

Specifications:
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/presskit?redirect=no

sReq | uTeK

Sabre Man wrote: »

Model 3 is out!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzT0uNT0ds8

Specifications:
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/presskit?redirect=no

At it's current price so you think Tesla is worth investing in?

Do you think it likely to continue to go up or wait for a model 3 delay and purchase on the back of shares dropping.

Sabre Man

It's possible, depending on your investment horizon. TSLA has been and will continue to be very volatile. Short interest is reduced, and the share price is 86.5%.

Overall the markets are near all-time records, so I would invest gradually.

Model 3 has been very well received by most reservation holders and Electrek reported that Elon has confirmed 500k orders, although I can't find anything else to back up this claim. The launch of the semi in September could also send the shares higher.

I don't own any TSLA shares at the moment.

Sabre Man

Driving Tesla’s Model 3 Changes Everything

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/driving-tesla-s-model-3-changes-everything

Sabre Man

German chipmaker Infineon to supply Tesla Model 3
According to Reuters, Infineon’s chip technology is included in eight out of 10 of the world’s best-selling electric vehicles, including the Model S.

http://www.teslarati.com/infineon-supply-tesla-model-3/
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IFX:GR

Might be worth a closer look.

I haven't heard about them before by the way, but if Model 3 takes off like I think it will, as well as other electric vehicles, this could be a winner, depending on how much of their profits come from these chips.

Sabre Man

Tesla's 2Q loss widens, but results beat forecasts
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-2q-loss-widens-results-204023346.html

Francie Barrett

It's interesting to see that Tesla's current ratio dipped below 1. For those of you that don't know what current ratio is, it's a measure of liquidity that's calculated by dividing current assets by current liabilities. A current ratio below 1 says that if suppliers were to demand immediate payment, Tesla wouldn't have liquidity on hand to meet that demand. The situation here suggests another share sale is needed like, yesterday.

The coference call was an absolute car crash. This is the actual exchange that an analyst had when he had the temerity to ask about capital expenditure in the next 2 quarters. Any CFO worth their salt will have decent visibility as to capex in the next 2 quarters. But not Elon, he threw his toys out of the pram.

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

I wanted to ask if I may, my one question on capital expenditures. Wanted to get an idea, what comes next with respect to some of your spending on the Model 3? And I guess, if I can nest one in, related to (25:23).

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Oh, God. You know what? Fine. Do it. You know. Fine.

Unbelievable, but the actual response to the question was just pure garbage.

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

It's one question on CapEx. But really want to understand what the big next steps are in 3Q and 4Q as we start to kind of build-out our models and figure out from there? Thanks.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Certainly. I mean, I do want to emphasize like but a lot of us is actually very hard for us to know. When we make mistakes is because we're stupid, not because we're trying to mislead anyone. I just want to emphasize – I – we aspire to be less dumb over time. So if I knew it, I would tell you. It's sort of like I've got this, like secret hand of cards that I'm holding close to my vest and I'm not telling you. It's just fundamentally impossible to predict the exponential part of the manufacturing S-curve. It's crazy hard. And S-curve is a simplification because it's really running through a series of constraints that, if you – it's like a really jagged sort of upward growth and it'll plateau and then it'll grow rapidly, and it'll plateau again. And then sometimes it'll go backwards because something broke.

Yes. When I said manufacturing hell and supply-chain hell on Friday. I meant it. I mean, we know this. Signed up for it. Not blaming hell because when we bought the ticket. So but I think at a high level, I don't think we should expect any significant negative surprises. There will be – as usual be the case, there tends to be some cost growth in CapEx for unexpected things. So we've got to expedite this, you've got to fix that, or this supplier doesn't work out, or this machine we bought doesn't work out. And you've got to be all hands on deck 24/7 to fix it or replace it. But I don't expect any significant – I think that is relatively contained. Deepak, do you want to...

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Yes, I think maybe the other way, James, to answer your question is.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

You need to talk to close with this.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. I think you're asking where we are spending the money. I think it's in the completion of the Model 3. We are bidding-off on the equipment.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Right. We are.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. And also, we are just continuing with the construction of Gigafactory to continue to scale that. And so that's where the majority of our CapEx...

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Overwhelmingly.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Yes.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Listed there. Overwhelmingly.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Overwhelming (28:14).

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Overwhelmingly is Model 3. Obviously, there are expenditures associated with the Solar Roof and with our Buffalo factory.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Correct.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

We're trying to keep those relatively light for the next few months.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

In the marketing and sales, we're growing our infrastructure there and our Supercharger networks. Those are the other smaller piece.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. Just on the Buffalo front – I really want to emphasize, we expect the Buffalo Gigafactory to be a powerhouse of solar panel and solar glass tile output. It is going be a kick-ass facility. We have made that commitment to the State of New York. We are going to keep that commitment.

And then, we're also thinking hard about, where do we put Gigafactorys three, four, five and six? We expect to keep the majority of our production in the U.S., but it's, obviously, going to make sense to establish a Gigafactory in China and Europe to serve the markets there, because it's not to build cars (29:23) in California and truck them halfway around the world, particularly when you're trying to make things as affordable as possible – that really hurts.

We really want to make our cars as affordable as possible. And so that does require some amount of local market production, particularly for the mass market vehicles in order to make it as accessible as possible.

So we're thinking hard about that. I think we'll have some announcements on at least a few of those locations before the end of the year, but we don't expect to spend significant money on them. It's just identifying the location, doing the long-lead time stuff, the permits, the planning. This doesn't cost a lot of money. It's only when you really start moving dirt and putting up concrete and steel and buying equipment that the big money starts to be required.

Yes. So anything you want to add on that?

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

No. That's good.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. And CapEx on Model S and X, it's not really – it's minor compared to the next.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

The next.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. There is continued improvement, of course, to keep pace with the Model 3s. So that all of our products are at the same level of technology, but it's more painless (30:42) compared to the Model 3.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

And we're continuing to achieve cost reductions on S and X, so there's a bit of investment, but negligible.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. Exactly. Absolutely. And in cases where we see cost reductions on S and X – those are the cases where we want to pass along some of those cost reductions to customers. So overall, we're feeling really – this is maybe the best I've ever felt about Tesla, to be frank. Last week, stressed the hell out of me, but I really think that this is probably the best I've ever felt about the company.

Oh, and one thing I wanted to correct. I think in a prior call, we publicly had said that Model Y, or our compact SUV – it's called Model Y. It may or may not be – would be a totally new architecture. Upon the council of my executive team – thank you. Thanks, guys – who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity – much appreciated – the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring its market faster.

Yes. So that will really accelerate our ability to get to Model Y to market faster, because fundamentally people prefer a sedan, people prefer an SUV. And in fact, the SUV market is larger. It's the biggest single product (32:35) I believe in the world.

So, I'd like to thank my executive team for stopping me from being a fool, and yes. The Model Y or whatever the hell will have relatively low technical and production risk as a result. I still think we want to do the crazy thing in the future, but we will punt that until after the compact SUV.

Anything else you think I should add?

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

No. That's great. (33:06)

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. We'll probably have as much time for questions as we can. We had a lot of operational issues to get back to, like to work on that manufacturing ramp, and I'm always incredibly grateful for anyone who is an investor in Tesla, and you put your faith in us. We will do whatever is necessary to reward that faith.

Jeffrey K. Evanson - Tesla, Inc.

All right. Shree. Why don't we go to the next question, please?

If I was the analyst in question, I would just want to scream, "Give us the fcukin' number you slime ball".

lucky john

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxCH_lxQ4Nk

b4bmm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

It's interesting to see that Tesla's current ratio dipped below 1. For those of you that don't know what current ratio is, it's a measure of liquidity that's calculated by dividing current assets by current liabilities. A current ratio below 1 says that if suppliers were to demand immediate payment, Tesla wouldn't have liquidity on hand to meet that demand. The situation here suggests another share sale is needed like, yesterday.

The coference call was an absolute car crash. This is the actual exchange that an analyst had when he had the temerity to ask about capital expenditure in the next 2 quarters. Any CFO worth their salt will have decent visibility as to capex in the next 2 quarters. But not Elon, he threw his toys out of the pram.

Unbelievable, but the actual response to the question was just pure garbage.


If I was the analyst in question, I would just want to scream, "Give us the fcukin' number you slime ball".

Some Shorts seem to have heard what they needed to close out.
Tesla up almost 6.5%.

Sabre Man

Model S cancellations due to recent specification changes (upgraded motor and air suspension as standard on Model S 75 and 75D, as opposed to not being available at all for a few months) may affect deliveries in the next quarter.

Sabre Man

Tesla is issuing $1.5 billion in bonds.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14255224/1/here-s-how-elon-musk-plans-to-raise-the-billions-needed-to-fund-tesla-s-hypergrowth.html?puc=CNBC&cm_ven=CNBC

Bitcoin

Is there any way that ordinary people can buy the new Tesla bonds, or would we be just better off buying the stock? I already own some of the stock, but the bonds seem like a safer way to put some money into albeit at a lower rate.

indeq

JUST 100 Gigafactorys is all thats needed to move the whole world to sustainable power? If thats right then....ffs how is it not done already???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPsH4AY_NKU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgpHPS7661M

The audio from vid one comes from vid 2.

b4bmm

indeq wrote: »

JUST 100 Gigafactorys is all thats needed to move the whole world to sustainable power? If thats right then....ffs how is it not done already???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPsH4AY_NKU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgpHPS7661M

The audio from vid one comes from vid 2.

Quite simple really.

Oil companies.
Political donations.
The end.

Bitcoin

I just finished reading the Musk biography by Ashlee Vance, it's a must read for a Tesla investor, or really anyone who is interested in science and finance

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-Fantastic-Future-ebook/dp/B00KVI76ZS

The resilience of the man is just incredible. Every time, he was told what he was doing was impossible, but every time he confounded the critics and built amazing things. I think so much of the negativity around him and his companies really is just small minded jealousy.

b4bmm

b4bmm wrote: »

Can you tell me what he has said that he hasn't done? Disclaimer; no idea about his mars views and find them far fetched but apart from that I talking about.

BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

He has just reportedly signed a deal in shanghai to build a gigafactory/manufacturing plant, not official yet and he will announce more of these over the next 6 months. He has had a few trips to Australia recently also so that might be another location along with somewhere in Europe.

He has basically followed through on everything he has said so far. His powerwall 2 are about 3 month waiting list for sale in Australia. The solar roof is backlogged in usa. The Model 3 has 400,000 pre orders. The autonomous driving, going off videos on YouTube seem to be advancing well and passing key regulations in US. Battery costs are dropping rapidly for big storage projects Etc etc etc.

I do agree with the last poster though, The Model 3 rollout is a biggie. They are being super smart about it though. First models off the line will go to employees who won't cause too much dramas if there is issues with the car. Next are to current owners in California and then after that to new purchasers in California so if there is a major issue and a callback needs to happen it can be sorted out relatively quickly before sales start to be made abroad. I don't think any car will be delivered outside Cali in 2017.

Tesla expect 100,000 Model 3 in 2017 and 400,000 in 2018. A reporter visited the Fremont factory and estimated that they would sell approx 80,000 in 2017 and was sceptical of the 400k figure for 2018. So if they can get at least 300-350k over 2017/2018 I think it will be a win. I hope they reach 500k but I think that's overly ambitious.

Regarding the thread title.
Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.

PLS charging now.
50% up from when I wrote this

PLS and TAW a lot of upside over the next 6-24 months.

beertons

b4bmm wrote: »

PLS charging now.
50% up from when I wrote this

PLS and TAW a lot of upside over the next 6-24 months.

Followed you on this. Only 500 shares, but will increase again shortly.