Will electric car sales accelerate?

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

perhaps, but the issue is that people may actually need the charge and the range. in the longer term and with grater infrastructure I would agree with you, but not at the moment

more charges with free parking also helps too

Indeed but in the meantime the usage of the charge points has to be limited until we reach the point there are more ac points, which is probably unlikely.

300-350 kms range electrics won't use them much probably.

swarlb

omicron wrote: »

We don't have a motor industry.

This tired old line is rolled out time and time again.
We do have a motor industry. It's employed me for the past 40 odd years, and employed family members in previous years. Garages, Dealerships, Mechanics, Administrative Staff etc that are in any way shape or form employed in any position where motorized transport vehicles are involved, work in the 'motor industry'... You could include public transport as part of 'the motor industry'.. where are far back as the latter part of the 1800's we, in Ireland, smelted metal, and formed it into components to manufacture railway engines, trams, busses and rolling stock.
There are still companies in Ireland that manufacture components, from body parts to engine parts and everything in between, and sell them to 'the motor industry'.
It's not, and never was, confined to 'cars'...
We have a lot of 'industries' in Ireland, you don't have to manufacture something from scratch to create an 'industry'.
The world's largest importer of coal is Japan, simply because they have none of their own as a 'natural' resource. Which also means they have probably the worlds largest 'coal industry'.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed but in the meantime the usage of the charge points has to be limited until we reach the point there are more ac points, which is probably unlikely.

£00-350 kms range electrics won't use them much probably.

There is little congestion at present

There is no need to charge
Charging would kill the marketplace which is tiny at present

The evidence is in front you in the recent sales graphs

You are one of these people that ignores facts and persists with the same idea irrespective of the changing circumstances.

If the goal is to ensure fairness of access to fcps , there are many ways that can be done without resorting to charging

Not to mention , that you seem to gleefulky want to apply more costs to EV owners ( I seem to remember you getting a fair bit of flack in November over your self centred position )

The issue is fair ness of access , not charging

12Phase

It would make sense as irelands has an urbanisation level much lower than the US heavily developed states too. A lot of American development is mostly clustered around very big conurbations. Ireland is still largely semi rural, low density scattered development.

Extremely bad planning, weird notions about living in the open countryside and a national political decision to go with scatter development is what impedes most things here by making densities so low that they're unsustainable.

Obvious examples; public transport. You can't serve scattered housing estates and one off houses with anything other than cars.

Broadband; all the technologies rely on people being relatively near a hub. We've a lot of tiny hubs (exchanges) and long lines.

Water quality; too many homes on septic tanks in catchment areas of lakes. Sewer systems aren't economically viable due to scatter.

Bad rural road maintenance; largest paved road network per head of population in EU and probably in the world due to chaotic development patterns.

Rural crime; police can't be everywhere, yet houses are scattered everywhere. Rural residents have more wealth and stealable objects and criminals are more mobile than ever before.

...

That's what you're up against in Ireland so, yes we do have unique circumstances.

Long range EVs are needed but they'll also be a massively important thing here as public transit isn't a viable alternative and we urgently need to reduce our emissions from transport.

Since we can't demolish what we've built since the 1950s or really dramatically change existing development patterns, zero emissions cars are going to have to work here. Realistically, we don't have many alternatives for a huge % of our population.

If push comes to shove and petrol / diesel ultimately becomes scarce or taxed to huge degree for environmental reasons, for many people living in that kind of housing it'll be a stark choice of telecommute or EV.

BoatMad

£00-350 kms range electrics won't use them much probably.

Let's do some simple maths

Given most people are out the door by 8am , and many a lot earlier , that gives you , 8 hours of night rate at 15 A , or 32 kW approx.

As I can attest , currently you just get a 30 kW battery recharged within that time frame , in fact on wendesday , I was out till 2am , and I'd had to sit at a fcp in the wee hours to ensure the car could be recharged to 100 % because there wasn't enough night hours to recharge

Yes I can solve that by going to 32A charging , but many homes can't handle that power supply.

Now fast forward to 60 kW , at 16A , these battery is gong to require 16 hours or even more to fully recharge

That means home charging will not be a solution to users that are using the range , and they will rely on fcps all the more.

Home charging is not a long term solution to high powered batteries , the maths simply don't stack up

12Phase

I honestly do not buy this argument that many homes in Ireland can't handle 32amps. Unless there's a huge heating load, most homes would have a very adequate supply.

The only challenge here is the inappropriate use of electric showers.(up to 45 amps).

Swap your kw hungry electric shower for something more energy efficient or cost effective; instantaneous gas is actually cheaper to run and solar works surprisingly well.

We should be encouraging the installation of energy efficient water heating that uses high insulation tanks and a mix of solar and locally burnt gas for now and only electricity when the fuel mix at generation makes that appropriate.

Given the current Irish fuel mix in power generation, electric space and water heating should be actively discouraged. You're getting more bang for buck from locally burnt gas than power station burnt gas.

Heat is heat. You can either get it locally from the flame or extremely indirectly via a power plant and a transmission network.

Electrical energy should be pushed towards transport where it can make an impact and away from uses where it's not needed.

Using peak time power in the morning to heat millions of showers is nuts. It'll push the generation system into full capacity and over to its most inefficient stations too.

Off peak highly insulated tanks make some sense (more so where you've lots of hydro or nuclear) but in Ireland it's not appropriate to heat water with electricity really at all. It should be a last resort until we've a very renewable heavy fuel mix.

It's like we don't even have simple things organised or thought about on energy policy in Ireland.

Cutting CO2 means using the most CO2 efficient solutions to achieve a result. We aren't going to have CO2 neutral generation for a long time yet.

BoatMad

12Phase wrote: »

I honestly do not buy this argument that many homes in Ireland can't handle 32amps. Unless there's a huge heating load, most homes would have a very adequate supply.

The only challenge here is the inappropriate use of electric showers.(up to 45 amps).

Swap your kw hungry electric shower for something more energy efficient or cost effective; instantaneous gas is actually cheaper to run and solar works surprisingly well.

We should be encouraging the installation of energy efficient water heating that uses high insulation tanks and a mix of solar and locally burnt gas for now and only electricity when the fuel mix at generation makes that appropriate.

Given the current Irish fuel mix in power generation, electric space and water heating should be actively discouraged. You're getting more bang for buck from locally burnt gas than power station burnt gas.

Heat is heat. You can either get it locally from the flame or extremely indirectly via a power plant and a transmission network.

Electrical energy should be pushed towards transport where it can make an impact and away from uses where it's not needed.

Using peak time power in the morning to heat millions of showers is nuts. It'll push the generation system into full capacity and over to its most inefficient stations too.

Off peak highly insulated tanks make some sense (more so where you've lots of hydro or nuclear) but in Ireland it's not appropriate to heat water with electricity really at all. It should be a last resort until we've a very renewable heavy fuel mix.

It's like we don't even have simple things organised or thought about on energy policy in Ireland.

Cutting CO2 means using the most CO2 efficient solutions to achieve a result. We aren't going to have CO2 neutral generation for a long time yet.

Your arguments need a few numbers

At present I have a single 8 kW powered shower , the other shower is heated via the standard cylinder

The powered shower consumes less then one unit per day for two people. Since we shower in the mornings typical that's a day cost of some 8 cents.

In order to run the shower downstairs , the immersion will run for 30 minutes minimum. , that's 1.5 units or 12 cents.

In reality not a lot of difference in absolute cost, but still the powered shower is 30% more efficient

The hot water remaining of course gets wasted

Gas heating , outside of natural gas is very expensive, 20-30% more expensive then oil , based on my costs , middle of last year.

Solar heating of DHW is a complete joke Economically , I calculated it would take me 22 years to break even in comparison to electric water heating , the rated life of many of its components was 10-15 years so I would never recover my capital costs. ( I have extensively researched this )

Most DHW so heated , never gets used anyway.

Currently we do not heat any hot water via our clynider as we have no need for it on a day to day basis

The most efficient way to heat water is using electricity , to instants heat exactly the quantity you need. Work it out yourself.

To get to your salient point

Many homes can handle 32A, but it's pushes the load close to the limit and has to be managed , there is a reason the Esb will not fit 32A units after all

I am installing my own 32A evse next week.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

There is little congestion at present

There is no need to charge
Charging would kill the marketplace which is tiny at present

The evidence is in front you in the recent sales graphs

You are one of these people that ignores facts and persists with the same idea irrespective of the changing circumstances.

If the goal is to ensure fairness of access to fcps , there are many ways that can be done without resorting to charging

Not to mention , that you seem to gleefulky want to apply more costs to EV owners ( I seem to remember you getting a fair bit of flack in November over your self centred position )

The issue is fair ness of access , not charging

Yes the ESB could limit fast charger use to reduce abuse, without charging but they'd have to apply a charge for further use of the chargers beyond the limit.

Considering the money we will have to pay on emissions fines which I only became aware of the actual extent of these astronomical fines a few days ago in the independent, then yes on that basis I would consider Government funding of the infrastructure absolutely essential and I would be absolutely willing to change my view on billing for usage because with 60-130 million in fines per % over the limit it makes me realise the Government have their heads in the sand.

I still don't believe the SCP's at the current amount installed should be unlimited and certainly not for 7 hrs, there should be a 2 hr limit, with the exception of Luas, train stations etc where people go away for the day, but it's probably likely these people charging at train stations are not taking the train so they could impose some limit that if you're not using the train you have a max 2 hrs charge time or pay xxx over the 2 hrs for these and all scp's.

12Phase

12Phase wrote: »

It would make sense as irelands has an urbanisation level much lower than the US heavily developed states too. A lot of American development is mostly clustered around very big conurbations. Ireland is still largely semi rural, low density scattered development.

Extremely bad planning, weird notions about living in the open countryside and a national political decision to go with scatter development is what impedes most things here by making densities so low that they're unsustainable.

Obvious examples; public transport. You can't serve scattered housing estates and one off houses with anything other than cars.

Broadband; all the technologies rely on people being relatively near a hub. We've a lot of tiny hubs (exchanges) and long lines.

Water quality; too many homes on septic tanks in catchment areas of lakes. Sewer systems aren't economically viable due to scatter.

Bad rural road maintenance; largest paved road network per head of population in EU and probably in the world due to chaotic development patterns.

Rural crime; police can't be everywhere, yet houses are scattered everywhere. Rural residents have more wealth and stealable objects and criminals are more mobile than ever before.

...

That's what you're up against in Ireland so, yes we do have unique circumstances.

Long range EVs are needed but they'll also be a massively important thing here as public transit isn't a viable alternative and we urgently need to reduce our emissions from transport.

Since we can't demolish what we've built since the 1950s or really dramatically change existing development patterns, zero emissions cars are going to have to work here. Realistically, we don't have many alternatives for a huge % of our population.

If push comes to shove and petrol / diesel ultimately becomes scarce or taxed to huge degree for environmental reasons, for many people living in that kind of housing it'll be a stark choice of telecommute or EV.

This is what happens when you have farmers and teachers in politics.

Just look at google maps at the extent of the one off housing on this island along with total deforestation. We're one of , if not the most deforested land in the whole of Europe.

Then you have the other extreme of housing estates and the surge these are on the Island, ugly concrete jungles that all look the same and no proper green areas or parks.

12Phase

BoatMad wrote: »

Your arguments need a few numbers

At present I have a single 8 kW powered shower , the other shower is heated via the standard cylinder

The powered shower consumes less then one unit per day for two people. Since we shower in the mornings typical that's a day cost of some 8 cents.

In order to run the shower downstairs , the immersion will run for 30 minutes minimum. , that's 1.5 units or 12 cents.

In reality not a lot of difference in absolute cost, but still the powered shower is 30% more efficient

The hot water remaining of course gets wasted

Gas heating , outside of natural gas is very expensive, 20-30% more expensive then oil , based on my costs , middle of last year.

Solar heating of DHW is a complete joke Economically , I calculated it would take me 22 years to break even in comparison to electric water heating , the rated life of many of its components was 10-15 years so I would never recover my capital costs. ( I have extensively researched this )

Most DHW so heated , never gets used anyway.

Currently we do not heat any hot water via our clynider as we have no need for it on a day to day basis

The most efficient way to heat water is using electricity , to instants heat exactly the quantity you need. Work it out yourself.

To get to your salient point

Many homes can handle 32A, but it's pushes the load close to the limit and has to be managed , there is a reason the Esb will not fit 32A units after all

I am installing my own 32A evse next week.

With a properly installed, highly insulated water heating tank (as is the norm almost everywhere except Ireland and Britain) you can heat and store DWH very cost effectively.

The problem with UK/Irish style immersions thanks is they've abysmally bad insulation.

A German heating engineer I know actually nearly wet himself laughing at a copper tank "wearing a coat" as he referred to what he found in an airing cupboard in Ireland.

Normally those tanks have near thermos flask levels of insulation elsewhere in Europe. Here they're commonly bare copper in older houses or very thinly foam insulated.

I've also seen people cut the foam off to expose the tank to heat the "hot press".

Putting a radiator in there would possibly make more sense tbh!

Most of Europe has far higher standards of plumbing and heating than these islands do. The amount of heat loss here is crazy a lot of the time.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

This is what happens when you have farmers and teachers in politics.

Just look at google maps at the extent of the one off housing on this island along with total deforestation. We're one of , if not the most deforested land in the whole of Europe.

Then you have the other extreme of housing estates and the surge these are on the Island, ugly concrete jungles that all look the same and no proper green areas or parks.

The deforestation of Ireland , happened well before any serious house building , most of Ireland was deforested by the 1800s

BoatMad

12Phase wrote: »

With a properly installed, highly insulated water heating tank (as is the norm almost everywhere except Ireland and Britain) you can heat and store DWH very cost effectively.

The problem with UK/Irish style immersions thanks is they've abysmally bad insulation.

A German heating engineer I know actually nearly wet himself laughing at a copper tank "wearing a coat" as he referred to what he found in an airing cupboard in Ireland.

Most of Europe has far higher standards of plumbing and heating than these islands do. The amount of heat loss here is crazy a lot of the time.

I trouble you to do your own ROI on solar DHW in Ireland

the payback , approaches 20 years in reality , despite ridiculous claims being made that it was 7-10

even at 10 years , its a joke, taking into account the opportunity cost of the capital

It makes no sense economically and its why the solar DHW industry has nearly collapsed in Ireland

PV panels will be a far better approach as electricity is more useful then 100 litres of hot water, but right now PVs are too dear.


given I have no use for large volumes stored hot water , I cant use the point of "high efficiency " DHW systems. ALL modern appliances are now cold fill and showers are not major consumers of water volume


efficiency is a function of cost , efficiency calculations in the absence of TCO and ROI calculations are just a way of wasting money

jetfiremuck

While the concept of energy saving is a noble cause, the costs involved either through forced subsidy ala esb and windmills, carbon taxes etc has not been fully analysed re costs and above all the true costs to the consumer. The Esb have held back on the standing charge for the charging stations. Why? ( afraid they'd kill the Ev market altogether) I've to pay a standing charge on a holiday mobile home over winter, even with the breaker switched off at the panel.

BoatMad

Why? ( afraid they'd kill the Ev market altogether)

yes

but I see no reason why on should say a standing charge for EV access to charging , the reasoning is different for homes ( as is how a mobile is treated)

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

The deforestation of Ireland , happened well before any serious house building , most of Ireland was deforested by the 1800s

And what did we do to restore it ? I mean real trees.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

And what did we do to restore it ? I mean real trees.

little to nothing , but that a different issue, farmers hate trees

jackofalltrades

Last year, electric cars made up just 0.23% of new car sales, with a total of just 562 vehicles sold.
This figure needs to hit 50,000 by 2020, the report notes.

I wouldn't like to be the person charged with meeting that target.
Hypothetically if the demand for electric cars suddenly shot up in Ireland would car manufacturers be able to meet this sudden increase in demand, in such a short time frame?
Especially if you have other countries possibly doing their own incentives to meet targets, thus increasing demand as well.

I'd say there's a lot of pent up demand in the market for an affordable EV, with a 200+ mile range in every condition.
I'd say incentives mightn't help that much until you can walk into a forecourt and buy one.
After that you won't really need incentives as there'd be big demand.
An "average yearly lifetime running cost" figure beside the CO2 figure on cars, could help people when buying a new car.
Dis-incentives for buying ICE cars in the mean time are unlikely given recent increases and unpopularity with voters.

BoatMad

jackofalltrades wrote: »

I wouldn't like to be the person charged with meeting that target.
Hypothetically if the demand for electric cars suddenly shot up in Ireland would car manufacturers be able to meet this sudden increase in demand, in such a short time frame?
Especially if you have other countries possibly doing their own incentives to meet targets, thus increasing demand as well.

I'd say there's a lot of pent up demand in the market for an affordable EV, with a 200+ mile range in every condition.
I'd say incentives mightn't help that much until you can walk into a forecourt and buy one.
After that you won't really need incentives as there'd be big demand.
An "average yearly lifetime running cost" figure beside the CO2 figure on cars, could help people when buying a new car.
Dis-incentives for buying ICE cars in the mean time are unlikely given recent increases and unpopularity with voters.

You have many factors at play

* the suitability of the vehicle for the use intended
* The " sex appeal " factor of the car
* the buyers confidence in the regulatory regime , charge costs and residuals
* The real costs of running the vehicle

today , to force people to look aside from this issues, you need to sweeten the deal and as I have said before

*annouce free charging access , until a threshold is reached, cars or time
* access to bus lanes , for a state duration ( 5 years )
* control hogging of chargers by time control
* announce investment in charging network, real time telemetry etc
* zero motor tax for 5 years


To create a zone of comfort for EV buyers this has to be done, right now we are actually in danger of going backwards

jackofalltrades

jackofalltrades wrote: »

I wouldn't like to be the person charged with meeting that target.

Don't worry, nobody in the Irish Government will be given such a task.

It's easier just to make the tax payer pay the fines without publicly announcing it. The very mention of more tax on petrol and diesel cars will cause riots. So they'll take the millions to pay fines out of the general pot and that will be the end of it.

Water John

Good interview with Conor Faughnan AA on Newstalk 4.50 pm.
Really positive on EV and sees it as the future.

May help there widespread acceptance.

link ?

thierry14

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Ignore him - he's a troll. I've comprehensively debunked most of his BS before, and he's back peddling the same half truths and untruths.

So if EV's are so great and comparable with ICE

Name one that is equivalent to a 30k Seat Leon FR 184bhp TDI?

I'm talking same power,same range, same refuel speed, same price.

They don't ****in exist do they Paddy?

Del2005

BoatMad wrote: »

* access to bus lanes , for a state duration ( 5 years )

I don't think private cars should be allowed into bus lanes or have free use of toll roads, doesn't matter what it uses for propulsion it still causes congestion.

thierry14

thierry14 wrote: »

So if EV's are so great and comparable with ICE

Name one that is equivalent to a 30k Seat Leon FR 184bhp TDI?

I'm talking same power,same range, same refuel speed, same price.

They don't ****in exist do they Paddy?

Define great, one persons opinion of great can be completely different to another.

The 184 HP isn't important to me because the leaf is actually quick enough to 100 Kph and is limited to 164 max Kph clock speed so you don't need 184 HP. But I would like more power but 184 Hp of electric power would be vastly superior.

Electric power is vastly superior to ICE power, you can't compare the two. HP alone doesn't tell you a lot.

Most people will charge over night and so 5 mins refill is not going to be needed.

And most people don't drive 800 odd kms in a day or even a week never mind a single trip.

In less than 2 years there will be 300-340 km electrics available.

jackofalltrades

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't worry, nobody in the Irish Government will be given such a task.

It's easier just to make the tax payer pay the fines without publicly announcing it. The very mention of more tax on petrol and diesel cars will cause riots. So they'll take the millions to pay fines out of the general pot and that will be the end of it.

Does anyone have an ballpark figure for what kind of fines we're potentially looking at for missing the transport emissions target?

swarlb

thierry14 wrote: »

So if EV's are so great and comparable with ICE

Name one that is equivalent to a 30k Seat Leon FR 184bhp TDI?

I'm talking same power,same range, same refuel speed, same price.

They don't ****in exist do they Paddy?

Don't be so daft, it's impossible to refuel an EV at the same speed as a car with an ICE... besides the fuel would probably damage the electronics.

Luddite I think is the word for you !

jackofalltrades

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Does anyone have an ballpark figure for what kind of fines we're potentially looking at for missing the transport emissions target?

According to the Independent article I read the other day between 60 Million and 133 Million Euro's per % over the target.

Will the Government pay ? and how obliged they are to pay is another matter.

colm_mcm

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Does anyone have an ballpark figure for what kind of fines we're potentially looking at for missing the transport emissions target?

Would be interesting to know how much taxes they'd lose out on on fuel if they were to meet the target, that's before you get to paying for building and maintaining an infrastructure that could serve anything more than a token number of EVs

What price do you put on the environment ? or Human health ?

colm_mcm

Me personally?