Any thoughts on Ryanair

Oil price increase is relatively good for Ryanair as it drives their competitors out of business. This isn't conjecture...it has been observed over the years. Rating agencies wouldn't be worried about it unless it gets well past 80 dollars.

Waltan

Nice.! Up 7% this morning.

Mad_maxx

machu wrote: »

Why the big increase with oil prices on the way up I thought it would be dropping not that I’m complaining.

There isn't a huge correlation, airlines have been a poor return this past five years despite low oil prices

Mad_maxx

ryanair taking off big time now

goes to show that the vast majority of people cannot predict the direction of a stock , i havent been in ryanair since last spring , i bought just below ten but sold at twelve a few months later , it then dropped back to below nine in the summer , didnt really occur to me to get in then , i wasnt following the stock that close but as the PE was still not especially low for an airline stock and word of a large short position had me wondering if it was going to stay low for a while , i didnt even consider a second punt . its almost doubled since , ryanair has a PE of twenty right now , thats very high for an airline stock , obviously the market believes its strong growth will continue.

i guess you either believe in a position or not.

littlevillage

got out myself in the 14's there two weeks ago when the drone attack happened in Iraq. Kinda sickened now .... but my BEP was about 10 ..still made a healthy profit overall.

Mad_maxx

littlevillage wrote: »

got out myself in the 14's there two weeks ago when the drone attack happened in Iraq. Kinda sickened now .... but my BEP was about 10 ..still made a healthy profit overall.

You always hate yourself a little when a stock rallies higher after you've sold?

Even you made a nice profit on it

Happened to me with CRH in 2019, thankfully smurfit kappa was a good buy and hold from 23.90

Bob Harris

FlyBe are in bother which is more good news for Ryanair.

Mad_maxx

Bob Harris wrote: »

FlyBe are in bother which is more good news for Ryanair.

Thought they got taken over - rescued a while back?

Bob Harris

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Thought they got taken over - rescued a while back?

About one year ago they were bought out by a consortium for a couple of million.

Looks like they're looking for government money now to keep them in the air.

Wheety

At €16 now. Mad. I didn't think we'd see that again for a while. I sold around half my holding a couple of months ago. BEP is below €12 so I'm happy.

Waltan

A lot of potential downside now with coronavirus. Could have a short term very bad effect in the coming weeks or months. Just sold out at 15.80

A coronavirus outbreak will do the exact same thing in business as it will in the broader population. It will kill off others and the strong will take their place. Ryanair is as strong as they come.

Mad_maxx

Waltan wrote: »

A lot of potential downside now with coronavirus. Could have a short term very bad effect in the coming weeks or months. Just sold out at 15.80

Drop happened already when it went from 16. 50 back to below 15 a few weeks ago

Markets price risk very quickly

Waltan

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A coronavirus outbreak will do the exact same thing in business as it will in the broader population. It will kill off others and the strong will take their place. Ryanair is as strong as they come.

In the mid to long term I agree. In the short term I believe it will hammer the market and travel companies especially. It will be the panic factor not the reality of the situation. Hope to be proven wrong!

Ryanair's no.1 risk isn't the virus, it is temporary imposition of tariffs on Boeing aircraft.
The E.U. aren't going to let the US levy a tariff of 15% on Airbus without retaliation. The WTO will be making their announcement about unfair support for Boeing soon and it is assumed that they will permit X billion of tariffs be levied by the E.U. That will result in a standstill until both sides likely abolish their tariffs and move on. Ryanair will probably not take their 737s even if built until after that issue is cleared up. That is the big bit of FUD that surrounds Ryanair at the moment.

greenfield21

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ryanair's no.1 risk isn't the virus, it is temporary imposition of tariffs on Boeing aircraft.
The E.U. aren't going to let the US levy a tariff of 15% on Airbus without retaliation. The WTO will be making their announcement about unfair support for Boeing soon and it is assumed that they will permit X billion of tariffs be levied by the E.U. That will result in a standstill until both sides likely abolish their tariffs and move on. Ryanair will probably not take their 737s even if built until after that issue is cleared up. That is the big bit of FUD that surrounds Ryanair at the moment.

This aged well, what's your reason for the 10% drop this morning?

Mad_maxx

Bought 5k worth at 13.70.

If the virus situation gets worse, markets will fall hard anyway so might as well pick up some now in case it's a brief drop

Waltan

Just a thought but if you’re lucky enough to have got out, put it into things like Netflix or video game companies. Anything people do at home!

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

This aged well, what's your reason for the 10% drop this morning?

Just bought another €12600 worth of shares this morning. I put my money where my mouth is.

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

This aged well, what's your reason for the 10% drop this morning?

I refer to Ryanair's risk. You are just looking at the share price.
I still have fears over Tariffs but if Ryanair don't take planes this late summer then it isn't a huge risk as the U.S. tariffs will probably be scrapped before next year's high season due to retaliatory tariffs from the E.U.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

I refer to Ryanair's risk. You are just looking at the share price.
I still have fears over Tariffs but if Ryanair don't take planes this late summer then it isn't a huge risk as the U.S. tariffs will probably be scrapped before next year's high season due to retaliatory tariffs from the E.U.

"just looking at the share price"

That tends to be important

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Anyone else think this might fall back towards 10s? Boeing issues, limiting expansion, Coronavirus and the go green movement etc.

Mad_maxx

Olivia CoolS Femur wrote: »

Anyone else think this might fall back towards 10s? Boeing issues, limiting expansion, Coronavirus and the go green movement etc.

it will easily loose another 5% minimum tomorrow , once wall st closes at the lows , europe always always opens lower the following day , i bought too early today , have not been in the stock for a year now , wont buy more , if the virus becomes serious enough , airlines will have no floor at all as they will be grounded

Waltan

Olivia CoolS Femur wrote: »

Anyone else think this might fall back towards 10s? Boeing issues, limiting expansion, Coronavirus and the go green movement etc.

I think as someone said previously, Boeing issues and even green movement are nothing new and in the price already. However the coronavirus is a complete unknown and could easily bring the price down to 10. I personally will start buying slowly below 11 but there probably won’t be any quick gains. Might take a year to recover maybe even more. When this virus runs it’s course Ryanair will be well placed. More weak airlines will fold and maybe Ryanair can meet its expansion by buying their carcasses.

Geuze

Touched 16 earlier this year, now at 13.

greenfield21

Is the v shaped recovery still on, looks unlikely to me

Mad_maxx

Dumped this morning and bought more smurfit kappa at the lows, airlines are now handcuffed to this developing story, it's now a trade until some good news arrives re_ corona and I don't short

I hope it stays down for a month more.
If it hasn't recovered by the time my annual bonus comes in I'll probably be buying more.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope it stays down for a month more.
If it hasn't recovered by the time my annual bonus comes in I'll probably be buying more.

I'll happily buy more, beit at 9 or 15, I'm out for now though

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

if it gets rolled up in the next winter flu shot all the better.

We could all be immunized against the Common Cold except there are loads of variants.
In the future with steady advances in the process of producing vaccine we could all be almost totally cold and flu free.
It isn't the end of civilisation as we know it.