Any thoughts on Ryanair

Waltan

Thar she blows! Ryanair is gonna benefit from recent airline failures. More consolidation likely in Europe. Might still represent value but not for much longer. Good long term prospects I reckon.

Wheety

Broken through €12 now.

littlevillage

ISEQ up almost 4% today (Nice one, Leo!!!!) ...

Ryanair up 10% in London and 7% on the ISEQ on the day.

What a day!!!

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

Now at 8.50.

From 8.50 in August, back to over 12.00 in Oct/Nov.

Cute Hoor

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

delta_bravo

Finally over my BEP. Unsure whether to offload it now. Its made great ground in the last couple of months but overall the last 18 months has been shaky

Wheety

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

It was bad news about the max but all figures seem to be ahead of forecasts, apart from Laudamotion.

Anyone who got in at €8.50, well done. Huge gains.

During the dip, I managed to bring my BEP down to €11.82 so I'm a good bit up now. Thought I would cash in at this point but I think next year could see it get back to €15 when the max is in operation.

Geuze

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

I bought at 3.60 / 4.00 many years ago, and then at 10.50 as they fell last year.

I am wondering now is there any way to reduce CGT by selling my loss-making shares in Anglo / PTSB?

Wheety

Almost €14 now.

Think I'll put in a stop loss sell order for around €13.75

Scrap that. Have an order to sell half my holding for €14.

Will keep me below the CGT cut off rather than selling all of them.

Wheety

Sold a load at 14. It's still going. 14.10 now.

Mad_maxx

delta_bravo wrote: »

Finally over my BEP. Unsure whether to offload it now. Its made great ground in the last couple of months but overall the last 18 months has been shaky

hold , the very substantial short position has been closed in the past few months , any sort of large short position will disproportionately drive down a share price , especially in a volatile sector like airlines

Waltan

Seems to be resistance above 14€. Sell now or is there still an upside?

ctlsleh

Waltan wrote: »

Seems to be resistance above 14€. Sell now or is there still an upside?

the Max announcements don't seem to be impact the shareprice which is good......., hard to know where its going to go though.......
i'm still underwater, but at least we have closed the gap from the summer. its going to be either a long hold, or get out and diversify and hope to make up the losses elsewhere

delta_bravo

14.93 now after the election news

And I'm out.

Bought this the whole way down...15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10 and sold out today at 14.60.

Happy to take my profit for now as I don't think there's much scope for it to increase much more in the near future.

Geuze

It has reached 15 euro now.

crushproof

I didn't get in but well done to those on here that did it in, especially at €10. Great return in just a few months. Up past €16 now.

Aidan Harney

I got in at just above 10 and am happy. I'm just troubled as to know when to get out!! I know nobody has a crystal ball etc, seems counterintuitive to sell while it's on the up. But like everyone knows, it's only hindsight will show when the best time to sell was. Fun fun.

Umaro

I got in at 12.50 and sold at 14.50. Congrats to anyone holding them today though, highest point in about 2 years.

machu

Why the big increase with oil prices on the way up I thought it would be dropping not that I’m complaining.

Oil price increase is relatively good for Ryanair as it drives their competitors out of business. This isn't conjecture...it has been observed over the years. Rating agencies wouldn't be worried about it unless it gets well past 80 dollars.

Waltan

Nice.! Up 7% this morning.

Mad_maxx

machu wrote: »

Why the big increase with oil prices on the way up I thought it would be dropping not that I’m complaining.

There isn't a huge correlation, airlines have been a poor return this past five years despite low oil prices

Mad_maxx

ryanair taking off big time now

goes to show that the vast majority of people cannot predict the direction of a stock , i havent been in ryanair since last spring , i bought just below ten but sold at twelve a few months later , it then dropped back to below nine in the summer , didnt really occur to me to get in then , i wasnt following the stock that close but as the PE was still not especially low for an airline stock and word of a large short position had me wondering if it was going to stay low for a while , i didnt even consider a second punt . its almost doubled since , ryanair has a PE of twenty right now , thats very high for an airline stock , obviously the market believes its strong growth will continue.

i guess you either believe in a position or not.

littlevillage

got out myself in the 14's there two weeks ago when the drone attack happened in Iraq. Kinda sickened now .... but my BEP was about 10 ..still made a healthy profit overall.

Mad_maxx

littlevillage wrote: »

got out myself in the 14's there two weeks ago when the drone attack happened in Iraq. Kinda sickened now .... but my BEP was about 10 ..still made a healthy profit overall.

You always hate yourself a little when a stock rallies higher after you've sold?

Even you made a nice profit on it

Happened to me with CRH in 2019, thankfully smurfit kappa was a good buy and hold from 23.90

Bob Harris

FlyBe are in bother which is more good news for Ryanair.

Mad_maxx

Bob Harris wrote: »

FlyBe are in bother which is more good news for Ryanair.

Thought they got taken over - rescued a while back?

Bob Harris

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Thought they got taken over - rescued a while back?

About one year ago they were bought out by a consortium for a couple of million.

Looks like they're looking for government money now to keep them in the air.

Wheety

At €16 now. Mad. I didn't think we'd see that again for a while. I sold around half my holding a couple of months ago. BEP is below €12 so I'm happy.

Waltan

A lot of potential downside now with coronavirus. Could have a short term very bad effect in the coming weeks or months. Just sold out at 15.80

A coronavirus outbreak will do the exact same thing in business as it will in the broader population. It will kill off others and the strong will take their place. Ryanair is as strong as they come.

Mad_maxx

Waltan wrote: »

A lot of potential downside now with coronavirus. Could have a short term very bad effect in the coming weeks or months. Just sold out at 15.80

Drop happened already when it went from 16. 50 back to below 15 a few weeks ago

Markets price risk very quickly

Waltan

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A coronavirus outbreak will do the exact same thing in business as it will in the broader population. It will kill off others and the strong will take their place. Ryanair is as strong as they come.

In the mid to long term I agree. In the short term I believe it will hammer the market and travel companies especially. It will be the panic factor not the reality of the situation. Hope to be proven wrong!

Ryanair's no.1 risk isn't the virus, it is temporary imposition of tariffs on Boeing aircraft.
The E.U. aren't going to let the US levy a tariff of 15% on Airbus without retaliation. The WTO will be making their announcement about unfair support for Boeing soon and it is assumed that they will permit X billion of tariffs be levied by the E.U. That will result in a standstill until both sides likely abolish their tariffs and move on. Ryanair will probably not take their 737s even if built until after that issue is cleared up. That is the big bit of FUD that surrounds Ryanair at the moment.

greenfield21

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ryanair's no.1 risk isn't the virus, it is temporary imposition of tariffs on Boeing aircraft.
The E.U. aren't going to let the US levy a tariff of 15% on Airbus without retaliation. The WTO will be making their announcement about unfair support for Boeing soon and it is assumed that they will permit X billion of tariffs be levied by the E.U. That will result in a standstill until both sides likely abolish their tariffs and move on. Ryanair will probably not take their 737s even if built until after that issue is cleared up. That is the big bit of FUD that surrounds Ryanair at the moment.

This aged well, what's your reason for the 10% drop this morning?

Mad_maxx

Bought 5k worth at 13.70.

If the virus situation gets worse, markets will fall hard anyway so might as well pick up some now in case it's a brief drop

Waltan

Just a thought but if you’re lucky enough to have got out, put it into things like Netflix or video game companies. Anything people do at home!

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

This aged well, what's your reason for the 10% drop this morning?

Just bought another €12600 worth of shares this morning. I put my money where my mouth is.

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

This aged well, what's your reason for the 10% drop this morning?

I refer to Ryanair's risk. You are just looking at the share price.
I still have fears over Tariffs but if Ryanair don't take planes this late summer then it isn't a huge risk as the U.S. tariffs will probably be scrapped before next year's high season due to retaliatory tariffs from the E.U.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

I refer to Ryanair's risk. You are just looking at the share price.
I still have fears over Tariffs but if Ryanair don't take planes this late summer then it isn't a huge risk as the U.S. tariffs will probably be scrapped before next year's high season due to retaliatory tariffs from the E.U.

"just looking at the share price"

That tends to be important

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Anyone else think this might fall back towards 10s? Boeing issues, limiting expansion, Coronavirus and the go green movement etc.

Mad_maxx

Olivia CoolS Femur wrote: »

Anyone else think this might fall back towards 10s? Boeing issues, limiting expansion, Coronavirus and the go green movement etc.

it will easily loose another 5% minimum tomorrow , once wall st closes at the lows , europe always always opens lower the following day , i bought too early today , have not been in the stock for a year now , wont buy more , if the virus becomes serious enough , airlines will have no floor at all as they will be grounded

Waltan

Olivia CoolS Femur wrote: »

Anyone else think this might fall back towards 10s? Boeing issues, limiting expansion, Coronavirus and the go green movement etc.

I think as someone said previously, Boeing issues and even green movement are nothing new and in the price already. However the coronavirus is a complete unknown and could easily bring the price down to 10. I personally will start buying slowly below 11 but there probably won’t be any quick gains. Might take a year to recover maybe even more. When this virus runs it’s course Ryanair will be well placed. More weak airlines will fold and maybe Ryanair can meet its expansion by buying their carcasses.

Geuze

Touched 16 earlier this year, now at 13.

greenfield21

Is the v shaped recovery still on, looks unlikely to me

Mad_maxx

Dumped this morning and bought more smurfit kappa at the lows, airlines are now handcuffed to this developing story, it's now a trade until some good news arrives re_ corona and I don't short

I hope it stays down for a month more.
If it hasn't recovered by the time my annual bonus comes in I'll probably be buying more.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope it stays down for a month more.
If it hasn't recovered by the time my annual bonus comes in I'll probably be buying more.

I'll happily buy more, beit at 9 or 15, I'm out for now though

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

if it gets rolled up in the next winter flu shot all the better.

We could all be immunized against the Common Cold except there are loads of variants.
In the future with steady advances in the process of producing vaccine we could all be almost totally cold and flu free.
It isn't the end of civilisation as we know it.