Any thoughts on Ryanair

Aidan Harney

Gradually lower and lower..... I'm interested but will give it more time....

littlevillage

Aidan Harney wrote: »

Gradually lower and lower..... I'm interested but will give it more time....

Yeah, same as .... but gonna wait til it tests €8.50 or lower again, before pulling the trigger.

antimatterx

8.98 r

antimatterx

8.98 r

bcklschaps

8.60 earlier, I'd say its down regarding the EU cash refunds directive.

8.50 is my first buying point

Geuze

bcklschaps wrote: »

8.60 earlier, I'd say its down regarding the EU cash refunds directive.

8.50 is my first buying point

You're brave.

I am nervous.

The Update on 1st May states the following: Q1 (Apr/May/June) pax down 99.5%, and then Q2 (July-Sep) traffic down 50%.

I think Q2 traffic forecast of -50% seems too optimistic??

For the year ending 31st March 2021, they forecast 100m pax, down from approx 150m last year. I can't see enough traffic returning to make it to 100m.....???????

bcklschaps

Geuze wrote: »

You're brave.

I am nervous.

The Update on 1st May states the following: Q1 (Apr/May/June) pax down 99.5%, and then Q2 (July-Sep) traffic down 50%.

I think Q2 traffic forecast of -50% seems too optimistic??

For the year ending 31st March 2021, they forecast 100m pax, down from approx 150m last year. I can't see enough traffic returning to make it to 100m.....???????

"Got my finger on the trigger but it don't seem right" (Status Quo - In the Army Now)

holding my fire for another hour to see how US opens

s3ndnudes

Bought in at 8.60 today. Happy enough with the entry point. Would also be ok with building out the position a little bit if it goes lower. I plan to hold long term but might book profits if there is a bounce over the coming months. Small part of the portfolio anyway but I do think it will be back in the 12-16ish range some time over the next 12 - 18 months assuming Coronavirus doesn't linger on that long!

robman60

s3ndnudes wrote: »

Bought in at 8.60 today. Happy enough with the entry point. Would also be ok with building out the position a little bit if it goes lower. I plan to hold long term but might book profits if there is a bounce over the coming months. Small part of the portfolio anyway but I do think it will be back in the 12-16ish range some time over the next 12 - 18 months assuming Coronavirus doesn't linger on that long!

Got in at 8.3x earlier too. I've bought a few airlines in full knowledge that some might go under. I just think ultimately they'll be a good play once this is over - air travel will return even if corporate travel is reduced (can definitely see that happening).

WhyTheFace

I bought at 10.5 not too long ago so down 20%.

Am I nuts to put the same amount in again now if i get them in or around 8.5 or should I just ride it out?

Am I throwing good money after bad?

(I am in no rush and can leave the money in there for as long as it takes to see a return)

lawrencesummers

WhyTheFace wrote: »

I bought at 10.5 not too long ago so down 20%.

Am I nuts to put the same amount in again now if i get them in or around 8.5 or should I just ride it out?

Am I throwing good money after bad?

(I am in no rush and can leave the money in there for as long as it takes to see a return)

Isn’t it very likely that you will still be able to avail of that price in 6 months time? If not better?

Why not look for a company that is going to do well from this, Or who will get a bounce from American election, like pharma, 3M make lots of PPE etc etc

Can’t see leisure travel coming back in such a way that gets the majority of their fleet airborne, and business travel will be limited as well.

Diarmuid

WhyTheFace wrote: »

Am I throwing good money after bad?

If you are investing in airlines in the middle of a pandemic where international travel is almost nil, (and one of the greatest investors every lived pulled all his money out of airlines,) then you have to be aware that this is a flutter and not investing for your future.

Are you going to lose all your money? Probably not,
Could you make a short term gain. Possibly but I wouldn't be hopeful
Is it a sound investment strategy. No

Pkiernan

For medium and long term Ryanair is always a buy at €9.

It's a 15 euro stock most of the time.

I bought it just after Brexit at 9, sold at 15.

Pretty solid company.

Jimbobjoeyman

I can't see air travel returning to where it was in the past without a vaccine and even so the legacy of this lockdown may inspire new regulation regarding air travel and the number of people that can be in a plane that it might never allow it to be as profitable again.

As said before.
If your willing to take a punt on it go for it but make sure your investment target has a strong enough balance sheet to weather a few bad years.

There is a lot of value in the markets as a result of the panic selling of the last while but I don't think its in airlines.

Harpon

Ryanair seem massively overvalued compared to the rest of the airline industry. I know they are the best capitalised European stock but you are paying one hell of a premium for that. Ryanair is trading at about 12 times trailing earnings compared to the next best capitalised stock Iag which is trading at 2 times trailing earnings.

Jimbobjoeyman

Harpon wrote: »

Ryanair seem massively overvalued compared to the rest of the airline industry. I know they are the best capitalised European stock but you are paying one hell of a premium for that. Ryanair is trading at about 12 times trailing earnings compared to the next best capitalised stock Iag which is trading at 2 times trailing earnings.

It's like buying apple products - your paying for the name.

An amateur/personal investor in Europe wants to invest in an airline that makes money - whats the first name that comes to mind.

Geuze

Harpon wrote: »

Ryanair seem massively overvalued compared to the rest of the airline industry. I know they are the best capitalised European stock but you are paying one hell of a premium for that. Ryanair is trading at about 12 times trailing earnings compared to the next best capitalised stock Iag which is trading at 2 times trailing earnings.

Is this true?

I haven't time to check.

Ryanair 12x trailing earnings - you mean 2019/20 profits?

IAG 2x trailing earnings.................


Thanks for the info.

Mad_maxx

Harpon wrote: »

Ryanair seem massively overvalued compared to the rest of the airline industry. I know they are the best capitalised European stock but you are paying one hell of a premium for that. Ryanair is trading at about 12 times trailing earnings compared to the next best capitalised stock Iag which is trading at 2 times trailing earnings.

its always had a much higher PE than the industry average , south western is the same in the U.S relative to the likes of delta

ryanair is the one airline you can be sure will survive this crisis , im not saying it wont go to five , maybe it will , it wont go bankrupt however and was cheap this week if you take a long term view

retalivity

Got on Ryanair again at 8.49 on Friday, flying up this morning (pardon the pun), currently at 9.12.

Mad_maxx

retalivity wrote: »

Got on Ryanair again at 8.49 on Friday, flying up this morning (pardon the pun), currently at 9.12.

its rarely stayed in the eights for long since march

Mantis Toboggan

Quarterly results out this morning.

bcklschaps

Harpon wrote: »

Ryanair seem massively overvalued compared to the rest of the airline industry. I know they are the best capitalised European stock but you are paying one hell of a premium for that. Ryanair is trading at about 12 times trailing earnings compared to the next best capitalised stock Iag which is trading at 2 times trailing earnings.

(From a Market summary, last week).


IAG is 1.7 times 2019 earnings.
Ryanair is about 9.3 times.

Air France = 2.9
Easyjet = 5.8
Lufthansa = 3.5
WizzAir = 10.6

Soo yes, Ryanair and Wizz and Easyjet are rated much higher than the market average.

Maybe the real story there is IAG is a very lowly rated Airline holding company. (inexplicably soo)

dinneenp

bcklschaps wrote: »

(From a Market summary, last week).


IAG is 1.7 times 2019 earnings.
Ryanair is about 9.3 times.

Air France = 2.9
Easyjet = 5.8
Lufthansa = 3.5
WizzAir = 10.6

Soo yes, Ryanair and Wizz and Easyjet are rated much higher than the market average.

Maybe the real story there is IAG is a very lowly rated Airline holding company. (inexplicably soo)

Sorry if mentioned before-
Ryanair in strongest position. Almost €4 million cash & 77% of its 327 planes are owned & un-mortgaged.

Jim2007

dinneenp wrote: »

Sorry if mentioned before-
Ryanair in strongest position. Almost €4 million cash & 77% of its 327 planes are owned & un-mortgaged.

And what is the burn rate? €4 million sounds like chump change for an airline...

Harpon

Jim2007 wrote: »

And what is the burn rate? €4 million sounds like chump change for an airline...

He meant billion, IAG has 6.9 billion in cash for comparison

Geuze

From 8.50 last week, back towards 10 now.

2019/20 results:

https://investor.ryanair.com/results/fy-20-results/

bcklschaps

Got in at €8.45 Friday and out at €10.00 today. Thank you very much Mr. O'Leary

Mad_maxx

bcklschaps wrote: »

Got in at €8.45 Friday and out at €10.00 today. Thank you very much Mr. O'Leary

range between 8 and 10.50 is established , at least for now

s3ndnudes

Just sold out of Ryanair at 27% profit.


Capital has allocated back into stocks I've held for a numbers of years:
Alibaba
Tencent
Alphabet

Also opened a new and small position in Baidu and added to my emerging market ETFS.

Individual stocks are a relatively small amount of the portfolio anyway, with the above only making up a small enough portion of that. Chinese stocks are a small portion of the overall portfolio it just happens i'm adding to them all at once!

AmberGold

Nearly certain there'll be another opportunity to get in close to 8 again as this plays out.

ebayissues

Can you short Ryanir on degiro? I couldnt do this a while ago.

Mantis Toboggan

ebayissues wrote: »

Can you short Ryanir on degiro? I couldnt do this a while ago.

No don't think so.

SMcDDB

ebayissues wrote: »

Can you short Ryanir on degiro? I couldnt do this a while ago.

Would love to know this also. The exact play I would make tomorrow.

Pkiernan

Pkiernan wrote: »

For medium and long term Ryanair is always a buy at €9.

It's a 15 euro stock most of the time.

I bought it just after Brexit at 9, sold at 15.

Pretty solid company.

You're all welcome guys...!

Pkiernan

SMcDDB wrote: »

Would love to know this also. The exact play I would make tomorrow.

The days not over, but Ryanair is up today.

SMcDDB

Pkiernan wrote: »

The days not over, but Ryanair is up today.

Hahaha lucky I couldn’t short sell on DEGIRO so. Think I’ll stick with the long buys!

Geuze

Back up over 11.50 today.

antimatterx

Idek anymore. WTF

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

From 8.50 last week, back towards 10 now.

2019/20 results:

https://investor.ryanair.com/results/fy-20-results/

From 8.50 in May, just a few weeks ago, to 12.50 today.

I am a shareholder, I like the business model, they have a strong balance sheet, but I still can't believe the recovery in this share price.

farmerval

Really gobsmacked with the current share price. After Brexit they dropped to approx 8.50

Now with no planes in the sky and no notion how air travel will pan out they are at 12.50, really amazing.

Timmaay

We are in a liquidity driven rally, nothing more nothing less.

farmerval

As in? More money looking for a home than value in the market?

Mad_maxx

farmerval wrote: »

Really gobsmacked with the current share price. After Brexit they dropped to approx 8.50

Now with no planes in the sky and no notion how air travel will pan out they are at 12.50, really amazing.

not surprising at all , air travel wont disappear and ryanair is the one airline who you can be sure will survive this , thus they will emerge stronger than ever

Timmaay

Mad_maxx wrote: »

not surprising at all , air travel wont disappear and ryanair is the one airline who you can be sure will survive this , thus they will emerge stronger than ever

The stock market usually prices in where the market will be in 6months time, as oppose to right now also.

Atlantic Dawn

If Boeing retrofitted the 737 Max planes with covid resistant fittings they would be on to a winner that would drive the public to them, win win for Ryanair too.

bcklschaps

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If Boeing retrofitted the 737 Max planes with covid resistant fittings they would be on to a winner that would drive the public to them, win win for Ryanair too.

Do you have a source for that ? and is there even such a thing as "covid resistant fittings" in the 'real' world (beyond some experimental stuff in a labs)

Mad_maxx

Timmaay wrote: »

The stock market usually prices in where the market will be in 6months time, as oppose to right now also.

The stock market is telling me that the covid19 fallout won't be as bad as was thought

The real economy of course always trails the stock market in terms of recovery

Banana Republic.

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If Boeing retrofitted the 737 Max planes with covid resistant fittings they would be on to a winner that would drive the public to them, win win for Ryanair too.

Boeing need to make them safe firstly, Have they been certified to fly again after all their issues? We can’t forget that, a lethal issue with them.

Atlantic Dawn

bcklschaps wrote: »

Do you have a source for that ? and is there even such a thing as "covid resistant fittings" in the 'real' world (beyond some experimental stuff in a labs)

Yes surfaces can be coated, here's door handles from an Irish company...
https://www.rte.ie/amp/1135866/

ebayissues

There is a massive disconnect between wall street and main street.




Does the averge joe who owns a resturant receive any of the trillions that the Fed/ECB have pumped into the market?