Any thoughts on Ryanair

AmberGold

Could be another buying opportunity here soon...

Geuze

Given further announcements of weak bookings:

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-cuts-capacity-in-sept-oct-by-almost-20-as-forward-bookings-weaken-2/

can anybody explain how the FR share price has not fallen as much as other airlines?

https://investor.ryanair.com/share-price/


I know it has a strong balance sheet.

I would have expected more time spent under 10, yet it has been between 10-12 for the past three months.

AmberGold

Geuze wrote: »

I would have expected more time spent under 10, yet it has been between 10-12 for the past three months.

I'm still waiting!

crushproof

Amazed the price is still stable, 17 million passengers in the past 6 months compared to 85 million the same time last year.

rugbyman

It seems that Ryanair is deemed to be 'least likely to fail'
Because of cash held, good operating system and considerable 'paid for'assets.
For my part I have made 100....,155...,and 80euros from trading it's shares in six weeks.

Timmaay

Flogged on my 200 or so Ryanair shares that I'd been holding on from pre covid times for only a 5% loss today, well happy to got off that lightly given travel stock's the minute. Will happily get back in in the future but there is better opportunities elsewhere for now I think.

antimatterx

If they ever drop to €8.50 again, I'm investing. That was a fantastic price.

cronos

antimatterx wrote: »

If they ever drop to €8.50 again, I'm investing. That was a fantastic price.

It was difficult to pull the trigger at that price given it was that price in late 2019 at one point also around the time they were having issues with the pilots. Covid is a far bigger issue so really it was strange and thus hard to pull the trigger.

skooterblue2

antimatterx wrote: »

If they ever drop to €8.50 again, I'm investing. That was a fantastic price.

wait until the second week in February..... Third stock market crash is on the way.

dinneenp

Heard someone mention that it'll be 5 years until back to 2019 levels.

crushproof

dinneenp wrote: »

Heard someone mention that it'll be 5 years until back to 2019 levels.

If even that. I don't think aviation will be quite the same in the future. There was already a trend on the European mainland to switching to trains due to the environmental aspects.

I think the biggest potential is in far Eastern Europe where the markets are being opened up but Wizzair are way ahead of them there.

Jim2007

crushproof wrote: »

If even that. I don't think aviation will be quite the same in the future. There was already a trend on the European mainland to switching to trains due to the environmental aspects.

Yes, and they are getting faster...






A two minute walk from my doorstep to the local train station and I can be in Milan in a little over 4 and a half hours... no check in at the airport, etc....

unregd147

Share price doesnt make sense.

Airbus, boeing, lufthansa, delta, airfrance-klm all down ~50% since Dec19.

Unless they are positioned to takeover lufthanza or similar i cant understand it.

How could the pilot unrest last year have the same impact on the share price as a legitimate pandemic that has all but grounded the entire fleet for the guts of a year. Madness.....

dinneenp

unregd147 wrote: »

Share price doesnt make sense.

Airbus, boeing, lufthansa, delta, airfrance-klm all down ~50% since Dec19.

Unless they are positioned to takeover lufthanza or similar i cant understand it.

How could the pilot unrest last year have the same impact on the share price as a legitimate pandemic that has all but grounded the entire fleet for the guts of a year. Madness.....

I think a large part of it is they own most of their fleet & have cash. Many others owe massive amounts of their fleet & are under pressure to pay, maybe if they can't even risk penalties or going under.

flashforward

dinneenp wrote: »

I think a large part of it is they own most of their fleet & have cash. Many others owe massive amounts of their fleet & are under pressure to pay, maybe if they can't even risk penalties or going under.

Regardless of the above a 48hour strike had the share price @ €8.57 on 23/08/19

Now we sit with the share price @ €13.25.

Comparing the year to date Sep 2019 to Sep 2020:
80% reduction in customers
78% drop in revenue
Profits gone from +€1.15bn to -€197m

https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Ryanair-H1-FY21-Results.pdf

Or do we take it the €8.57 in 2019 was the bargain of the century?

dinneenp

Piece in the Sunday Times about Ryanair share price

Geuze

I have the same questions as people here.

I bought at 3.60 many years ago, and again at 10.50, a while after the 8.50.

Like other people, I am in disbelief.


The article says they did not have a rights issue.

They did issue more equity, and they did issue a bond during COVID. Both were over-subscribed.

cronos

Geuze wrote: »

I have the same questions as people here.

I bought at 3.60 many years ago, and again at 10.50, a while after the 8.50.

Like other people, I am in disbelief.


The article says they did not have a rights issue.

They did issue more equity, and they did issue a bond during COVID. Both were over-subscribed.

The article does kinda make sense. Basically it's a write off year for the entire industry and they have limited their spend this year and negotiated down salaries. On top of that the government are paying much of the salaries that are left. So they are going to be lean and mean when the industry can get going. Obviously it's a bet on next summer being back to normal. Not a bet I'd take at this price but as a long term play you could see them doing fine. I don't think anyone at the moment is thinking anything other than I want to go on holidays!

feelings

Aviation will recovery a lot quicker than the 5 year estimate. IATA's predictions seem to change depending on the weather. I had mentioned on another thread regarding the chinese domestic market. It's back to pre-covid numbers and they carried more passengers in Sep 2020 than a year previous.

Agree with you all though re Ryanair's share price - it doesn't make sense to me how's it's stayed at current levels.

Orobhsa

+16% today

Currently €15.50

kingstevii

Orobhsa wrote: »

+16% today

Currently €15.50

Wow! What happened in the last hour to cause that?

gamblor101

kingstevii wrote: »

Wow! What happened in the last hour to cause that?

Pfizer. Vaccine is 90% effective

adam88

kingstevii wrote: »

Wow! What happened in the last hour to cause that?

There’s a lot of pent up demand to get away. Once travel is safe and allowed every plane in the land is gonna be full

skooterblue2

gamblor101 wrote: »

Pfizer. Vaccine is 90% effective

You and yours first before me and mine. I have seen vaccines go wrong and I have no appetite for them.

RaggyDays

Time to book the ski holiday??

kingstevii

gamblor101 wrote: »

Pfizer. Vaccine is 90% effective

Yep, that seems to be it alright!

garbanzo

Jayzus... it closed at €15.45 today.
It’s literally flying at the mo ����

Geuze

16.95!!!

kingstevii

Geuze wrote: »

16.95!!!

Last trade of day 17.06! Been a good week!

garbanzo

It doesn’t make any real sense to me to have risen to that price but I’m delighted that I bought in at €4.20 about 18 years ago. Of course.....I shudda bought more at the time !

Cute Hoor

The reason for the share price increase this week is probably multi-fold, the vaccine but more so the order of an additional 75 MAX-8200s

Wheety

Well I have sellers remorse now :rolleyes:

I sold my 1000 or so shares for in and around €11 when there was so much uncertainty. Was debating with myself whether to hold on or not but when I was able to get out and break even I went for it.

Ah well. I may get back into shares at some stage but have other expenses at the moment.

cute geoge

How long more before the share price descents and will it be a soft landing .up to 1 billon in loses for 2020 and '21 will surely be as bad.

richie123

cute geoge wrote: »

How long more before the share price descents and will it be a soft landing .up to 1 billon in loses for 2020 and '21 will surely be as bad.

Hard to know, im looking to add more shares.
The rubbish talk he came out with on the radio this morning...o leary clearly putting money before peoples health.let himself down badly,and id be one of his biggest supporters.

Juwwi

Any thoughts on Ryanair at the moment ,, €16.80 ?

Looks like air travel in Europe could resume soon with the vaccine progress , l presume it will jump up a bit in price if theres an announcement .

I have a degiro account but never bought any shares before ,, can l lodge and buy shares any time of the day or just during business hours ?

Thanks

Atlantic Dawn

Juwwi wrote: »

Any thoughts on Ryanair at the moment ,, €16.80 ?

Looks like air travel in Europe could resume soon with the vaccine progress , l presume it will jump up a bit in price if theres an announcement .

I have a degiro account but never bought any shares before ,, can l lodge and buy shares any time of the day or just during business hours ?

Thanks

My thoughts on them are not at that price, if you look back the last 3 years the highest the price has been is €17.06, that was actually in December 2020 during the pandemic when passenger numbers collapsed. Working in Ryanairs favour are the collapse of other airlines and tour operators which gives them a better slice of the pie and additionally they have a very modern fuel efficient fleet. While there could be a mini boom when restrictions are lifted it will take time to return to high levels of profit. IAG (International Consolidated Airlines Group) is worth a look. The cruise ship companies have a better margin to hit back to pre Covid values if your main interest is Covid bounce.

I think with Degiro if lodgement is made before 10am on a workday it can be in your account to trade the next day. You can buy shares during trading hours either by offering the asking price or by setting a limit to complete the trade at which then completes if that price is hit.

Juwwi

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

My thoughts on them are not at that price, if you look back the last 3 years the highest the price has been is €17.06, that was actually in December 2020 during the pandemic when passenger numbers collapsed. Working in Ryanairs favour are the collapse of other airlines and tour operators which gives them a better slice of the pie and additionally they have a very modern fuel efficient fleet. While there could be a mini boom when restrictions are lifted it will take time to return to high levels of profit. IAG (International Consolidated Airlines Group) is worth a look. The cruise ship companies have a better margin to hit back to pre Covid values if your main interest is Covid bounce.

I think with Degiro if lodgement is made before 10am on a workday it can be in your account to trade the next day. You can buy shares during trading hours either by offering the asking price or by setting a limit to complete the trade at which then completes if that price is hit.

Thanks for the reply very helpful .

I should of said lm not looking to make a quick buck ,, more of a 10 year investment .

I'll lodge into DeGiro and mull it over .

I was actually thinking about the cruise ships , once covid is forgotten about the cruise ships will be back in full flow again .

Thanks

richie123

Juwwi wrote: »

Thanks for the reply very helpful .

I should of said lm not looking to make a quick buck ,, more of a 10 year investment .

I'll lodge into DeGiro and mull it over .

I was actually thinking about the cruise ships , once covid is forgotten about the cruise ships will be back in full flow again .

Thanks

Long term I think...airlines probably not a good investment...unless progress towards electrified airplanes and battery systems increases drastically.
We're 20 or 30 years off that..climate change issue is gonna be a huge headache once pandemic (hopefully)is over

Atlantic Dawn

richie123 wrote: »

Long term I think...airlines probably not a good investment...unless progress towards electrified airplanes and battery systems increases drastically.
We're 20 or 30 years off that..climate change issue is gonna be a huge headache once pandemic (hopefully)is over

Global CO2 emissions from aviation account for 2.4%, negligable amount. Agriculture on the other hand where we produce cheap beef in this country providing someone with a cheap Big Mac in London is pure insanity.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200218-climate-change-how-to-cut-your-carbon-emissions-when-flying

cute geoge

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Global CO2 emissions from aviation account for 2.4%, negligable amount. Agriculture on the other hand where we produce cheap beef in this country providing someone with a cheap Big Mac in London is pure insanity.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200218-climate-change-how-to-cut-your-carbon-emissions-when-flying

I am probably not articulare enough to debate about agriculture v aviation emissions but blaming agriculture in Ireland for climate change is completely bonkers .One thing covid 19 will show is the big reduction in global co2 emissions due to colapse in global air travel yet all the green dogooders will try blame agriculture yet recommence their jet setting lifestyle once covid 19 fesrrictions are lifted

richie123

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Global CO2 emissions from aviation account for 2.4%, negligable amount. Agriculture on the other hand where we produce cheap beef in this country providing someone with a cheap Big Mac in London is pure insanity.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200218-climate-change-how-to-cut-your-carbon-emissions-when-flying

Whats insanity is allocating the emissions from that burger in London to the Irish farmer.
The same way oil from the Saudis is allocated to where its consumed..it should be the same for beef which it currently isn't if I'm not mistaken.

Robson99

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Global CO2 emissions from aviation account for 2.4%, negligable amount. Agriculture on the other hand where we produce cheap beef in this country providing someone with a cheap Big Mac in London is pure insanity.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200218-climate-change-how-to-cut-your-carbon-emissions-when-flying

That's a bit like the way we closed down Bord na Mona but yet we have to import now from Eastern Europe.
Ireland is an agricultural country. All **** talk about emissions from beef. If we dont produce it Brazil will and will cut down more trees in doing so.
People really need to wake up and see the big picture

iAcesHigh

Robson99 wrote: »

That's a bit like the way we closed down Bord na Mona but yet we have to import now from Eastern Europe.
Ireland is an agricultural country. All **** talk about emissions from beef. If we dont produce it Brazil will and will cut down more trees in doing so.
People really need to wake up and see the big picture

Big picture is simple - if we continue with the pace we are doing atm, your kids will feel the pain, and who knows if your grandkids will even get to live their full life...

kingstevii

Nice bump today!

Geuze

17.50 today!!

The year high.

Highest in three years, I think.

Wheety

Geuze wrote: »

17.50 today!!

The year high.

Highest in three years, I think.

Can't believe I sold when I could break even at around €11. I was sure the price would fall again with the pandemic. Had about 1000 shares too :mad:

At least my BOI shares have rebounded and are in the black now.

800m annual after tax loss announced.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0517/1222018-ryanair-annual-results/

daithi7

6 wrote: »

800m annual after tax loss announced.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0517/1222018-ryanair-annual-results/

Michael O'Leary & the Ryanair CEO were on Bloomberg today, they were bullish, quoting vaccine projections for Europe & extrapolating current increases in bookings into full year projections ( their guesstimate ~70% of capacity).
For me is it's hard to believe that people's flying habits will revert to that extent that quickly, with so much uncertainty about re variants, vaccines, tests, & quarantines, but hey , I'm not Michael O'Leary.....

cute geoge

I have rarely taking a foreign holiday ,what I can not figure out why people in their masses flock to these holiday resorts ,it is like sheep following sheep .If i was to go on holidays to Spain I would get boat to Santander and drive through Spain to Morrocco that would be the true flavour of a Spainish holiday

UsBus

cute geoge wrote: »

I have rarely taking a foreign holiday ,what I can not figure out why people in their masses flock to these holiday resorts ,it is like sheep following sheep .If i was to go on holidays to Spain I would get boat to Santander and drive through Spain to Morrocco that would be the true flavour of a Spainish holiday

That's the problem with people, with their different tastes and all.......:pac:
I wouldn't call people sheep for wanting a nice relaxing holiday in a resort with amenities close by.

For what its worth, the idea of getting in a car and driving the length of Spain is not a holiday to me(don't forget the boat to Morocco if you go), its a form of torture.

If all these sheep flock to resorts several times a year, and then back again the following year, maybe these resorts have something to offer..?