Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 2016

An Ciarraioch

Should be somewhat more intriguing than usual this year - the Ulster Unionists have been making a comeback under Mike Nesbitt, not enough perhaps to deprive the DUP of largest party status, but the unionist seat totals will be more evenly balanced this time. SF may very well increase their nationalist stranglehold, but this vote has shrunk in recent elections due to abstentionism. The SDLP has elected a new leader in Calum Eastwood, but a number of their candidates in Tyrone have gone independent, suggesting deep fractures in the party. Of the smaller unionist parties, TUV and UKIP aren't expected to make many inroads on this occasion.

In terms of others, Alliance have grown in Belfast, but the flag controversy and taking a ministry may well knock them back. The Greens (who are part of the Irish Green Party) can be quietly confident of increasing their tally, while People Before Profit expect a seat in West Belfast, are running Eamon McCann in Derry and are endorsed by Bernadette McAliskey. Finally, the Cross-community Labour Alternative candidates are running after the UK Labour Party decided not to run official candidates in Northern Ireland.

An Ciarraioch

After major ructions in Tyrone, it seems SDLP members plan to set up a new party, called - wait for it - the Social Democrats!

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/breakaway-sdlp-faction-mull-setting-up-a-new-party-34631537.html

Mr.Nice Guy

I listened to Colum Eastwood getting interviewed on BBC's Talkback programme and he seems likeable enough. I was impressed with his song choice of You'll Never Walk Alone as a tribute to the people of Liverpool over Hillsborough which was a nice touch. I didn't think he did too well when the topic of abortion came up and his party seem to be a bit conflicted on this issue.

I get the impression the SDLP are trying to be all things to all men. They don't want to alienate the staunch Catholic voters who are wary pf abortion, gay marriage, but then they don't want to alienate the more moderate voices who want these things, they don't want to be outdone by Sinn Fein on the republican questions, but they also don't want to alienate potential moderate unionist voters who may vote for them tactically to keep Sinn Fein out.

I'm interested to see how they do. I think they haven't figured out quite what their identity is at the minute.

NIMAN

As someone born and bred in NI I fail to see how anyone can see anything interesting in the politics of the north.

It will always be orange v green, and rhe major things in life are tossed to one side.

Voters feel they can only vote for a certain side, and they do that in 99% of cases.

I cannot see any great shift in SF and DUP being the top dogs for many years to come, as everyone retreats into their trenches.

God forbid education, health, jobs, social issues etc are actually voting points.

Charles Babbage

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I get the impression the SDLP are trying to be all things to all men. They don't want to alienate the staunch Catholic voters who are wary pf abortion, gay marriage, but then they don't want to alienate the more moderate voices who want these things.

Interesting choice of phrase to allocate the position of "moderate" to those who favour the taking of life to those who don't. Even SF would hardly manage such doublespeak.

Generally though the SDLP is a waste of space. The SNP offer a model for a party to advance its cause without shooting anyone, but the SDLP is far behind in political capacity.

Mr.Nice Guy

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Interesting choice of phrase to allocate the position of "moderate" to those who favour the taking of life to those who don't. Even SF would hardly manage such doublespeak.

Favouring women in NI to have access to abortion - as women in England, Scotland and Wales currently do - does not equate to wanting the taking of life.

NIMAN wrote:

As someone born and bred in NI I fail to see how anyone can see anything interesting in the politics of the north.

It will always be orange v green, and rhe major things in life are tossed to one side.

Voters feel they can only vote for a certain side, and they do that in 99% of cases.

I cannot see any great shift in SF and DUP being the top dogs for many years to come, as everyone retreats into their trenches.

God forbid education, health, jobs, social issues etc are actually voting points.

Do you think a party going into opposition would improve things? The UUP and the SDLP seem to be hinting at that possibility.

Charles Babbage

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Favouring women in NI to have access to abortion - as women in England, Scotland and Wales currently do - does not equate to wanting the taking of life.

Of course it does, everyone reckons it is OK for them to end someone else's life to suit their own purposes.

130Kph

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Of course it does, everyone reckons it is OK for them to end someone else's life to suit their own purposes.

Opinions such as this when parsed and examined at length & in fine detail (such as the abortion thread in A&A) show them to rely entirely on word play semantics with biology terms and irrational emoting. That’s it; nothing else!

If this is your private view – that’s interesting indeed.

The time for such views forming public policy on the island (the dark ages in my opinion) is coming to its end in the not too distant future, thankfully.

I hope the SDLP manage to increase their vote; the auld extremist parties are getting boring now.

Mr.Nice Guy

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Of course it does, everyone reckons it is OK for them to end someone else's life to suit their own purposes.

It is a much more complicated issue than you make it out to be. For example, a couple that are given the news that there is a fatal foetal abnormality would not have a desire to 'take life' and that would be a very unfair accusation to throw their way; they would simply wish to handle the traumatic news in as humane a way as they possibly can which for many, not all but many, would involve a termination.

K-9

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Favouring women in NI to have access to abortion - as women in England, Scotland and Wales currently do - does not equate to wanting the taking of life.



Do you think a party going into opposition would improve things? The UUP and the SDLP seem to be hinting at that possibility.

That seems to be the most exciting possibility in this election, there could be an actual opposition.

Charles Babbage

130Kph wrote: »

Opinions such as this when parsed and examined at length & in fine detail (such as the abortion thread in A&A) show them to rely entirely on word play semantics with biology terms and irrational emoting. That’s it; nothing else!

Ah yes,so your basic point is that you don't agree with me so therefore I must have no substance to my argument. That's mature.

The time for such views forming public policy on the island (the dark ages in my opinion) is coming to its end in the not too distant future, thankfully.

Public policy in a civilised society should interest itself when one set of people sets out to end the lives of others. Your characterisation such an interest as the "dark ages" like the previous characterisation of your views as "moderate" is an typical example of the abuse of the English language to stifle debate by devaluing those who you disagree with.

I hope the SDLP manage to increase their vote; the auld extremist parties are getting boring now.

I doubt it, the SDLP aren't very inspiring and people will either not vote at all or vote the likes of the Greens.

It is a much more complicated issue than you make it out to be. For example, a couple that are given the news that there is a fatal foetal abnormality would not have a desire to 'take life' and that would be a very unfair accusation to throw their way; they would simply wish to handle the traumatic news in as humane a way as they possibly can which for many, not all but many, would involve a termination.

I didn't make it out to be an uncomplicated issue; that was you with your implication that anyone who disagrees with you is an extremist.

130Kph

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Ah yes,so your basic point is that you don't agree with me so therefore I must have no substance to my argument. That's mature.

What? My basic point is what I wrote. Your opinion (which is not uncommon in religion debased Ireland) has been examined in detail and found to be emotive, semantic waffle, with a dollop of fantasy rights-assignment thrown in for good measure. That’s your problem not mine.

I’ve been listening to pro-life ‘arguments’ (if they could even be considered to rise to that minimum description) for over 30 years and they still sound as patronising, woman-controlling, patriarchal & ignorantly absolutist as they sounded when I first heard them at 14 years of age.

It’s not a case of “I don’t agree with you therefore it follows you have no substance to your argument” ….it’s - your ‘pro-life’ views do have substance – but it’s the substance described above.

Public policy in a civilised society should interest itself when one set of people sets out to end the lives of others. Your characterisation such an interest as the "dark ages" like the previous characterisation of your views as "moderate" is an typical example of the abuse of the English language to stifle debate by devaluing those who you disagree with.

That is my opinion of your views - that’s not stifling debate in any way. How could it? Anyway, abortion rights are not what this thread is about. I’ll gladly continue on from this point in the right forum. Btw, you’re mixing me up with Mr Nice Guy here.

The Greens would be fine. Anything would be better than more grisly DUP/SF psychosis.

K-9

Moved this to the main forum to give it some visibility, doesn't seem to be any earth shattering news yet.

SF looking to get 30 seats which gives them certain blocking powers used by the DUP before.

An Ciarraioch

K-9 wrote: »

Moved this to the main forum to give it some visibility, doesn't seem to be any earth shattering news yet.

SF looking to get 30 seats which gives them certain blocking powers used by the DUP before.

Gerry Carroll's election is intriguing enough - could PBP shake up the nationalist vote (even if officially "other")? Would also be noteworthy if McCann does get over the line after a mere 47 years of trying!

Mr.Nice Guy

I heard it reported that the nationalist turnout is down and the unionist turnout is up. What can we take away from that? Did Arlene Foster energize the unionist electorate? Did Eastwood fail to energize the nationalist areas?

K-9

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gerry Carroll's election is intriguing enough - could PBP shake up the nationalist vote (even if officially "other")? Would also be noteworthy if McCann does get over the line after a mere 47 years of trying!

McCann was a councillor at some stage?

awec

This post has been deleted.

Fr Tod Umptious

If I recall the last time these elections were on there was a lot of talk here about SF becoming the largest party and then in some way getting a "border poll" agreed.

Why is there no talk of SF being the largest party this time round ?

awec

This post has been deleted.

Fr Tod Umptious

awec wrote: »

Because they had no chance.

Also they just lots a seat in west Belfast so the 5 seats aren't on any more.

But why did they have no chance.

Why have they lost popularity ?

Have the lost it to other left or nationalist parties or has the DUP become much stronger within their demographic ?

Honest questions by the way.

K-9

Did the DUP make gains last time so making it harder for SF to catch them?

An Ciarraioch

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But why did they have no chance.

Why have they lost popularity ?

Have the lost it to other left or nationalist parties or has the DUP become much stronger within their demographic ?

Honest questions by the way.

Think the answer is that the greater variety of unionist parties has kept their turn-out rates up, whereas nationalist voting rates have fallen, largely due to the overwhelming SF dominance at present. Perhaps if more Southern parties enter the race in future elections, it would keep SF and SDLP fresh on their feet.

Mr.Nice Guy

One possibility is that the support for equal marriage from SF and the SDLP, and a more moderate attitude towards abortion from SF, may have alienated a lot of Catholics who oppose these positions.

I was listening to BBC NI radio the other day and there was a caller from a nationalist area who said he wasn't voting because he didn't agree with the nationalist parties' positions on those issues. I think this could be one of the factors in explaining why turnout in nationalist areas was down.

awec

This post has been deleted.

An Ciarraioch

awec wrote: »

Yea, there is no viable socially conservative nationalist party.

An opening for FF, then, when they were planning to run for Stormont in the Bertie era?

glacial_pace71

Looks like most counts have adjourned for the night.

It'd appear from the first preference shares of the votes that the candidates who would have registered as unionist MLAs have achieved less than 50% of the vote but those who would have registered as 'nationalist' has dropped considerably, to well below 40%.

The DUP/SF carve-up has turned off some, or perhaps many? It'd appear that the Arlene-is-not-Robinson factor might well have kept the unionist turnout up in many areas. In Foyle and West Belfast the transition to non-sectarian 'other' candidates (whether 'radical' or 'conservative') has come from the 'nationalist' quota, but in the leafy South Belfast and North Down constituencies there will be likely gains for the Greens and the Alliance.

Overall the results won't change things too radically. Given the holier-than-thou showing in Foyle it'd appear that there's a gap in the political spectrum for a Catholic rather than nationalist party. (Ironically McCann used to grumble about the old IPP candidates being 'anointed' rather than selected. We might have come full circle now: a revival of the old 'Home Rule' party has a future).

In unionist areas it'd appear that the drop in turnout was lower than the drop in turnout in nationalist areas, but it's relative: the nationalist-majority constituencies still have a higher turnout, and many of the 'garden centre Prods' just won't come out and vote for a UUP or Alliance candidate.

The boundary changes of the election before last seem to have permanently seen the loss of a second nationalist seat in North Antrim but without any compensating benefit in securing a seat in East Antrim, (SF's McMullan is unlikely to hang on based on the current figures). Similarly, the previous loss of a second nationalist seat in South Antrim and the nationalist seat in the Lagan Valley now appear to be permanently irreversible on these boundaries. The SDLP's much-vaunted Boyle didn't make the breakthrough in Strangford, and their second seat in South Belfast will fall to the Greens.

Overall it looks like the unionist contingent will be roughly the same. The SDLP's losses are significant but they've survived. The PBP should shake things up in terms of the MLAs registered as 'other'. The gain for the Greens will mean that they're no longer seen as a single-seat ex-Alliance defector but a multi-seat party, with an opportunity to make noise in a more leafy suburban manner than the PBP.

At the end of the day the election is not to a constitutional convention, so the 'tribal headcount' element of seeing how many 'unionist', 'nationalist' and 'other' is misleading - though for many voters will remain the primary reason for turning out.

Bonniedog

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But why did they have no chance.

Why have they lost popularity ?

Have the lost it to other left or nationalist parties or has the DUP become much stronger within their demographic ?

Honest questions by the way.

why?

Because they have run the place for the last 30 odd years and it is the worst place in Britain or Ireland on any measure you can think of - unemployment, crime, suicide, and so on.

As for the clown who thinks that the 8,000 people who voted for Carroll were prods

Running kick in the bollix for the shinners, and richly deserved it has to be said.

Francie Barrett

awec wrote: »

I guess that Gerry Carroll would have picked up a lot of unionist votes in west Belfast who was probably identified as a realistic candidate to hurt SFs chances of getting 5 seats.

Not a hope in hell - the number of traditional UUP/DUP votes that Gerry Carroll attracted could be counted on one hand, literally. His vote came mostly from Sinn Fein and some from SDLP.

Bonniedog

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Not a hope in hell - the number of traditional UUP/DUP votes that Gerry Carroll attracted could be counted on one hand, literally. His vote came mostly from Sinn Fein and some from SDLP.

See, this will be the shiner sh1te now. Everyone voted for Carroll is a loyalist or stoop or hood or tout...

Fact is that shinners have been total disaster for any place they represent. not a job, unless you are one of the gang and become a "community worker". The worm has turned.

Francie Barrett

Bonniedog wrote: »

See, this will be the shiner sh1te now. Everyone voted for Carroll is a loyalist or stoop or hood or tout...

Fact is that shinners have been total disaster for any place they represent. not a job, unless you are one of the gang and become a "community worker". The worm has turned.

The Sinn Fein reaction will be interesting. People Before Profit have already taken some of its core vote in the Republic, now they're taking it in the North. With their move towards the centre, it was inevitable that someone to their left would eat into that harder-left vote. It'll be difficult for them to take back that left vote while not alienated their more centre vote.

Overall, I'd say nationalists must be pretty dismayed. By all accounts, the young nationalist vote either isn't turning up, or else it's voting PBP, Green, or Alliance.

Bonniedog

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The Sinn Fein reaction will be interesting. People Before Profit have already taken some of its core vote in the Republic, now they're taking it in the North. With their move towards the centre, it was inevitable that someone to their left would eat into that harder-left vote. It'll be difficult for them to take back that left vote while not alienated their more centre vote.

Overall, I'd say nationalists must be pretty dismayed. By all accounts, the young nationalist vote either isn't turning up, or else it's voting PBP, Green, or Alliance.

That a Trotskyist would take a seat in West Belfast is pretty amazing. I don't think the stickies ever got more than 1,500 or thereabouts in West Belfast.

They have been exposed as total frauds. Voted for welfare cuts to keep their jobs in Stormont and pretended they didn't. Slagging off others as "Free Staters" and "sell outs" when they have accepted Partition.

Francie Barrett

Bonniedog wrote: »

That a Trotskyist would take a seat in West Belfast is pretty amazing. I don't think the stickies ever got more than 1,500 or thereabouts in West Belfast.

They have been exposed as total frauds. Voted for welfare cuts to keep their jobs in Stormont and pretended they didn't. Slagging off others as "Free Staters" and "sell outs" when they have accepted Partition.

The notion that Sinn Fein are a left-wing party is all a bit silly really. Gerry may talk the talk, but the reality is that he's willing to throw out the socialist principles if it means power. We've seen this time and time again.

I think this election and previous elections show that the appeal of the old guard of Sinn Fein has topped out. It really is time for Gerry and the Army Council wing of Sinn Fein to step aside and give the younger less tainted party members a crack.

Bonniedog

The result also proves that the chances of a referendum approving Irish unity is generations away still.

Shinners are beaten flush.


The SF claim that Carroll was elected by tactical loyalist voting is pathetic.

Here's the facts: SF down nearly 12%, SDLP down 5%, DUP up 3%. PBP got 23%.

Pretty obvious where the PBP vote came from. It wasn't Shankill!

Iwasfrozen

Why isn't this thread in the elections and referendums forum?

Anyway, bad day for SF and the nationalist vote in general. It sssems the nationalist vote is more at risk of losing seats to non partisan candidates than the unionist vote which seems to be more steadfast.

With results like these I imagine a border poll is now out of the question.

K-9

This forum is for all Ireland political discussion. This was all discussed before. There'll be bans for those who "innocently" ask this question.

Inquitus

Fairly spectacular failure from the Shinners, I agree they seem to be a busted flush at this point on both sides of the border.

Charles Babbage

Inquitus wrote: »

Fairly spectacular failure from the Shinners, I agree they seem to be a busted flush at this point on both sides of the border.

SF have little by way of policies on either side of the border. They sound off about a United Ireland, but a UI (which is increasingly possible) requires hard work in terms of policies to bring it about, notably in terms of making NI something less than a basket case economy. SF haven't even come to terms with the need for this, never mind done it, and their continual whine is now to be outdone by the PBP lot who can always play the victim more convincingly.

And while SF have several younger figures who sometimes impress with their singing, if not their tune, the list of impressive figures is short in the 6 counties.

Bonniedog

Charles Babbage wrote: »

SF have little by way of policies on either side of the border. They sound off about a United Ireland, but a UI (which is increasingly possible) requires hard work in terms of policies to bring it about, notably in terms of making NI something less than a basket case economy. SF haven't even come to terms with the need for this, never mind done it, and their continual whine is now to be outdone by the PBP lot who can always play the victim more convincingly.

And while SF have several younger figures who sometimes impress with their singing, if not their tune, the list of impressive figures is short in the 6 counties.

They are total opportunists. If you knew nothing about the north and someone told you the policies they were implementing, you would properly describe it as pretty much centre right; welfare cuts, pay cuts for public servants, low corporation taxes, and so on. And yet there are chancers in Che tee shirts justifying all this as though it were part of a revolution!

And of course at same time they are whinging on about "austerity" in the south. Well they are biggest party on Dublin City Council and are total disaster. DCC has seized land and houses from co-ops and those fk wits went along with all. Shower of despicable assholes.

Charles Babbage

Bonniedog wrote: »

They are total opportunists. If you knew nothing about the north and someone told you the policies they were implementing, you would properly describe it as pretty much centre right; welfare cuts, pay cuts for public servants, low corporation taxes, and so on. And yet there are chancers in Che tee shirts justifying all this as though it were part of a revolution!

NI has a ridiculously large public expenditure and if they want a United Ireland they should come out and say that.

And of course at same time they are whinging on about "austerity" in the south. Well they are biggest party on Dublin City Council and are total disaster. DCC has seized land and houses from co-ops and those fk wits went along with all. Shower of despicable assholes.

Indeed, prattling on about cuts to services and homelessness and the like while cutting the property tax in Dublin City.

Bonniedog

Charles Babbage wrote: »

NI has a ridiculously large public expenditure and if they want a United Ireland they should come out and say that.



Indeed, prattling on about cuts to services and homelessness and the like while cutting the property tax in Dublin City.

They are totally clueless. I got onto one of them who I know personally - nice chap by the way - about an issue affecting my GAA club. Just a practical thing about pitches and lighting. He hadn't a clue. City Council officials making fools of them.


The LPT issue is another case. As you said, one minute cutting their own income, and the next whinging about not having money for libraries and parks. where the fk do they think the money comes from? You wouldn't ask them to mind your dog.

Fr Tod Umptious

By the way did this election use PR STV ?

Leonard Hofstadter

Yeah they use the system as the Republic does.

I found the drop in the SF vote (down 3%), as well as the election of not one but two PBP MLAs, extraordinary. I had heard some musings that PBP were starting to make some inroads into West Belfast (hard to believe in itself given who one of the MLAs was), but I didn't realise it was so significant. Sure PBP could have had a second MLA had they run another candidate there because they got so many votes! It just goes to show that SF isn't going to constantly keep going upwards no matter what (even though this was always something SFers used to say - slow, steady growth) and that there really is a limit to their appeal (fortunately for the rest of us). It also gives hope to 87% of people south of the border who didn't vote for them that the fight can be taken to the Shinners - and it can be won.

Seeing the non sectarian parties get more votes has got to be good news. Perhaps just as the younger generation in the Republic played such a central role in getting marriage equality passed last year down south, the younger generation in NI are less tribal than the older generations and are looking at the issues as opposed to what's on a flag? I don't know but it's fascinating stuff. If this is a trend amongst younger voters, then it's going to lead to a very different landscape in time to come.

I was disappointed to see that the DUP have done so well. Their bigoted views on marriage equality and other things have no place in a modern society and it is absolutely disgraceful that they abuse (and continue to abuse) the 'Petition of Concern' to block something that has similar levels of support to that in the Republic.

Madd Finn

K-9 wrote: »

McCann was a councillor at some stage?

I don't think he was actually. I remembered a funny story from his classic account of the early years of the Troubles "War and an Irish Town". It concerned his candidature in the Stormont elections of 1969.

To quote directly:

"I stood ..[for the Foyle constituency]..as an official Labour candidate with some tacit Republican support. We rejected the party manifesto and wrote one of our own. The election agent ran away with the deposit (one hundred and fifty borrowed pounds) the night before nomination day. He had taken a taxi to Norfolk to see his girlfriend.

We lost another deposit when the result was announced. Mr [John] Hume won easily."

Gotta admire his persistence.

Bonniedog

There is interesting piece by Suzanne Breen on what happened.


People are getting fed up of the hypocrisy of the shinners spouting socialism and the dons living lives of opulence. And having the cheek to be basically stealing their own state paid employees wages!

45% of the electorate didn't bother to vote at all, which indicates a substantial level of apathy with regards to the governance of NI.

K-9

They're now the establishment party. SDLP are falling back and PBP have a limit on their popularity though so hard to see them falling back much.

BOHtox

With lots of middle class Nationalists or people with soft Nationalistic views, why isn't there a centre-right Nationalist party?

And would there be much demand? for it?

Personally I'd probably vote Green or Alliance because none of the main parties really grab me

CrabRevolution

Northern Ireland politics is interesting. From what I can see, despite an increased number of catholics becoming more comfortable with the union, they aren't voting for any unionist candidates (the UUP and DUP have gotten fewer and fewer votes in the last 3 elections). Instead, they seem to stay at home, as evidenced by the turnout decreasing election after election (70% in 1998, 62% in 2007, 54% in 2016), or vote for the likes of PBP.

Combining that with the demographic increase in catholics, will there not be a large cohort of soft nationalists who just aren't willing to overlook Sinn Féins and the SDLPs flaws and failings because of their ideology? Could a center or center-right party as suggested above be the answer? Or will they just stay at home in ever increasing numbers?

All predictions are pointing towards a nominal catholic majority in Northern Ireland, but it's no guarantee that they will vote SDLP/Sinn Féin. At the same time though unionist politicians aren't doing much do attract them. Could there be an opening for a new party? Alliance doesn't seemt to be a popular option for catholics/nationalists, with all its seats in mostly protestant areas.

Richard

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Northern Ireland politics is interesting. From what I can see, despite an increased number of catholics becoming more comfortable with the union, they aren't voting for any unionist candidates (the UUP and DUP have gotten fewer and fewer votes in the last 3 elections). Instead, they seem to stay at home, as evidenced by the turnout decreasing election after election (70% in 1998, 62% in 2007, 54% in 2016), or vote for the likes of PBP.

Combining that with the demographic increase in catholics, will there not be a large cohort of soft nationalists who just aren't willing to overlook Sinn Féins and the SDLPs flaws and failings because of their ideology? Could a center or center-right party as suggested above be the answer? Or will they just stay at home in ever increasing numbers?

All predictions are pointing towards a nominal catholic majority in Northern Ireland, but it's no guarantee that they will vote SDLP/Sinn Féin. At the same time though unionist politicians aren't doing much do attract them. Could there be an opening for a new party? Alliance doesn't seemt to be a popular option for catholics/nationalists, with all its seats in mostly protestant areas.

I think that many people from a nationalist background but who prefer the current setup within the UK are still voting for nationalist parties, particularly the SDLP.

Mr.Nice Guy

Interesting move by the UUP to go into opposition in Stormont. I wonder will it prove an inspired move or will it backfire?

Charles Babbage

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Northern Ireland politics is interesting. From what I can see, despite an increased number of catholics becoming more comfortable with the union, they aren't voting for any unionist candidates (the UUP and DUP have gotten fewer and fewer votes in the last 3 elections). Instead, they seem to stay at home, as evidenced by the turnout decreasing election after election (70% in 1998, 62% in 2007, 54% in 2016), or vote for the likes of PBP.

Combining that with the demographic increase in catholics, will there not be a large cohort of soft nationalists who just aren't willing to overlook Sinn Féins and the SDLPs flaws and failings because of their ideology? Could a center or center-right party as suggested above be the answer? Or will they just stay at home in ever increasing numbers?

All predictions are pointing towards a nominal catholic majority in Northern Ireland, but it's no guarantee that they will vote SDLP/Sinn Féin. At the same time though unionist politicians aren't doing much do attract them. Could there be an opening for a new party? Alliance doesn't seemt to be a popular option for catholics/nationalists, with all its seats in mostly protestant areas.

If you are a nationalist, what is the point in voting for SF or the SDLP as neither of these have any sort of realistic plan whatsoever to end British colonialism in Ireland? Nationalism awaits a SNP style reboot to get things moving.

Alliance is largely voted for by nationalists living in protestant areas.