Future of humans, robots & social issues, Your prediction

some1gr8

Hi,,

its not hard to predict that robots will be become common in future (just like in movie Exmachina), from good uses e.g. like house hold work, driving cars, minding kids to bad use e.g. robots army, life partner or sex robots,,

Just wondering what's yours predictions about robots and how common they would be,,

Presonaly i think human like robots will be possible and it will be hard to distinguish between real human & robots, Robots would be customised to have desired physical and behaviour characteristics (as yoour dead relative or sex robot of somebody you fancy which can do other house task), but it could lead to social issues, if you fancy somebody, your neighbour or your work colleague, who will be responsible to stop anybody getting human copy robot...

ScumLord

Robots that look like humans and also have human mental abilities will probably take a while. I could see sentient AI happening but I think for the next few decades that AI will probably be in some large room.

The problem with full on human equivalent AI is that we're going to have to treat them as other humans. Morally we couldn't enslave them and make them do our bidding. So they'll be utterly useless from a production point of view. There's also the problem of a company spending billions making this AI and then they'll effectively have to let it go along with all the technology that it's made up of. Imagine if a google data centre became sentient for example. How much would the lose of that facility cost google?

So I think private companies for the most part would want to avoid making AI that could be considered a sentient creature.

I do wonder what the PC term for these type of creatures would be? AI seems like it might become a derogative term for them.


When it comes to jobs I don't think they'll be the doomsday scenario some people think they'll be. These technologies will open up so many new avenues for us to exploit. Imagine if you could set up a company without having to find solicitors, accountants, engineers? And never mind just find them but find trustworthy ones. The individual could have themselves a small scale business doing just about anything at a fraction of the cost of today's set up costs. Maybe we'll all find our own niches where we don't make a lot of money but don't have anywhere near the outgoing costs.

Jayop

There's going to be human looking robots in a few years but I don't see them being sentient and I don't know how common they'll be.

ScumLord

The human looking robots are extremely creepy looking. Most of them serve no practical application other than looking human as well. I think I'd be more comfortable with a humanoid robot rather than something trying to look human.

Jayop

ScumLord wrote: »

The human looking robots are extremely creepy looking. Most of them serve no practical application other than looking human as well. I think I'd be more comfortable with a humanoid robot rather than something trying to look human.

I want the lead actresses from Humans or Ex Machina as my robots.

4068ac1elhodqr

H+, Transhumanism.

Capt'n Midnight

What we will have is basic robots that act as helpers for old people. Japan is working on them. Huge market for something with infinite patience. Could also use for telepresence.

Military are spending huge amounts on AI and have been doing for yonks. Stuff like target recognition since the 1980's. But GPS and IR detection can also be used.


Yes we have facial recognition and speech recognition. It's a lot better but it's still Hard To Wreck A Nice Beach. IMHO there hasn't been much progress in Chatbots since ELIZA (1964) except that today's computers can brute force more stock phrases.


Azimov's three laws are pure science fantasy. Imagine genetically engineering a human with the genes that make domesticated doges subservient (or a slightly better version of a lobotomy). You get near-perfect slaves, but with more ethical issues than fictional mechanical men.

Speedwell

I think the word we're looking for is sapience. Sentience means only (the best definition is Wikipedia's) "...the capacity to feel, perceive, or experience subjectively". My cats have that. Sapience is the word used to describe something that can be shown to have the reasoning capacity similar to that of a rational human being.

That defined, anything that has sapience should be treated similarly to anything else that has sapience. How could you justify otherwise?

ScumLord

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

IMHO there hasn't been much progress in Chatbots since ELIZA (1964) except that today's computers can brute force more stock phrases.

I would see IBMs Watson as a big step in that field. I know it's more of a search engine than a chatbot but it'#s ability to answer jeopardy questions bring computers one step closer to at least being able to understand a conversation with a human.

walshyn93

http://static6.uk.businessinsider.com/image/56f3ff7952bcd023008b88d3-1400-749/screen_shot_2016-03-24_at_14_51_50.jpg
https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/vnnk0sb.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=780
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/yishkd9shm75aygh6klk.png

This was how Microsoft's attempt at an AI twitter bot went.

Microsoft's description "the more you talk to her the smarter she becomes"

Capt'n Midnight

ScumLord wrote: »

I would see IBMs Watson as a big step in that field. I know it's more of a search engine than a chatbot

It's still just a search engine

Long ago people found that Bayesian filtering was as effective as detecting real text as were grammar engines.


Title text: In the 60s, Marvin Minsky assigned a couple of undergrads to spend the summer programming a computer to use a camera to identify objects in a scene. He figured they'd have the problem solved by the end of the summer. Half a century later, we're still working on it.

OleRodrigo

I think what Demis Hassabis is on to is very encouraging. He sees the development of AI has necessary in order to solve the problems we now face, such as global income inequality ( why should the west be rich and other places not ? ), climate change, energy and food supply. Beyond that, interstellar travel could be achieved by using an AI in the development of propulsion systems.

The idea is that it would be intelligent enough to analyze data and develop solutions, but not quite sentient and always under our control.

If you consider what he achieved recently with AI and ' Go ', and what his plans are for healthcare, its strikes me as a practical and hugely beneficial application of AI.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/04/google-deepmind-access-healthcare-data-patients

Black Swan

Australian Robotics Review (October 2015) reproduced this predictive chart:

isntlee

Elon Musk maintains that control/safety issues are the crucial aspects of AI now, as the 'singularity' is inevitable. His point is an analogy with nuclear energy that in the wrong hands it's goodbye humanity.

isntlee

The possibilities are infinite, as genuine AI (that can educate itself at impossible pace) is equivalent to trying to tame a god. So, safe-guards must be deep-structured and are crucial now.

Fathom

Microbot "swimmers." Shape-programmable. Medicine delivery system. Ref: http://www.technology.org/2016/09/28/shape-programmable-microbot-swimmers/

ScumLord

isntlee wrote: »

The possibilities are infinite, as genuine AI (that can educate itself at impossible pace) is equivalent to trying to tame a god. So, safe-guards must be deep-structured and are crucial now.

AI is nowhere near god like and won't be for a very long time. The most likely scenario if someone created skynet is that it would break down. AI development is speeding along, it's done in the past 60 years what took real life millions of years. But it still a long way off human brain power, we don't even fully understand human brain power which is going to make it difficult to replicate.

Last I heard the worlds most advanced computers are at the processing power of a bee. Although that's raw processing power, a bee would **** all over a computer trying to be a bee.

some1gr8

I think, we are here for big surprise in next 10-15 years
here are my reasons,

. If we look back to year 2000, internet was mostly for students, you wouldn't expect every tom dick herry will be able to use it , certainly if any body told us that in next few years, every body from all age groups (even 60-70 yo granny) will be putting their photos online etc, it be hard to believe, but now its hard to imagine modren life without social media, smart phone etc...

. I think, in next ten year, driverless electric car will be everyehere, traveling will be dirt cheap, (reason, check tesla model 3, & S cars for electric car, they can give you 200 miles of electric charge for almost few euros or free incase of tesla), (regarding driverless, check mercedes driverless proto type, uber already trying driverless car),, Many taxii driver wouldn't like it but their wouldnt be taxi drivers by 2030,

reason why it will be very cheap, imagine if my is driverless, it can go on the road and drive around as taxi and earn money for me, if everybody who owns similar car does this, price will fall (as they are electric car, fuel and maintenance will be far cheaper,more and more people will be sharing cars,

following is best video regarding AI
. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH_B5xh42xc&feature=share

ScumLord

some1gr8 wrote: »

I think, we are here for big surprise in next 10-15 years
here are my reasons,

I think everything you say will happen bu ten years is a bit optimistic.

. If we look back to year 2000, internet was mostly for students, you wouldn't expect every tom dick herry will be able to use it , certainly if any body told us that in next few years, every body from all age groups (even 60-70 yo granny) will be putting their photos online etc, it be hard to believe, but now its hard to imagine modren life without social media, smart phone etc...

In the year 2000 I was using all these things. All the technology was already invented all they've done to get everybody onboard is market it correctly. Name things "cloud" and so on. It is shocking to see my 80 year old uncle with an iPhone, iPad, laptop. Once he got his hands on an iPhone he was hooked. But all the underlying technology is nothing new, it's just been repackaged for lay people.

. I think, in next ten year, driverless electric car will be everyehere, traveling will be dirt cheap, (reason, check tesla model 3, & S cars for electric car, they can give you 200 miles of electric charge for almost few euros or free incase of tesla), (regarding driverless, check mercedes driverless proto type, uber already trying driverless car),, Many taxii driver wouldn't like it but their wouldnt be taxi drivers by 2030,

I don't think it's going to be that straight forward. I think eventually we'll be required to hand the control of our cars over to a city traffic management system whenever we enter a city. In 10 years I'd expect to see limited driverless cars. We haven't really gotten into the legality of it all yet either. At what point do errors in driving become the fault of the manufacturer? The legal wrangling could keep driverless cars on hold for decades.

Of course, adding AI into the mix means AI could be building itself and getting better faster than humans would.

bogwalrus

I predict manipulation of human dna will allow for us to inhabit many types of extraterrestrial environments allowing us to evolve uniquely to the point of a complete evolutionary split creating a more diverse universe of intelligent species.

ScumLord

bogwalrus wrote: »

I predict manipulation of human dna will allow for us to inhabit many types of extraterrestrial environments allowing us to evolve uniquely to the point of a complete evolutionary split creating a more diverse universe of intelligent species.

I don't know that messing with our DNA will lead to many big advantages, and not in the scary monster way, more the unforeseen consequences leading to debilitating diseases way. The human body may seem weak but it pretty much conquered life on this planet.

But I'm sure the people that want to experiment will be able to find a quiet corner of the galaxy and do whatever they like. So it's going to happen.

Ben D Bus

ScumLord wrote: »

I don't know that messing with our DNA will lead to many big advantages, and not in the scary monster way, more the unforeseen consequences leading to debilitating diseases way.

We mess with our DNA all the time by reproducing and mutating randomly. Taking control of the mutation isn't such a fundamental change. It simply introduces the possibility, similar to computers, to improve things - or screw things up - much faster.

In the very VERY long term I can certainly see genetically engineered human-derivatives who have been modified to inhabit previously hostile environments.

I can also see genetic modification to enable closer integration of man & machine. Actual cyborgs. First in the military of course, then in medicine and ultimately designer humans with an emphasis on extended and productive lifespans.

Fian

some1gr8 wrote: »

. If we look back to year 2000, internet was mostly for students, you wouldn't expect every tom dick herry will be able to use it , certainly if any body told us that in next few years, every body from all age groups (even 60-70 yo granny) will be putting their photos online etc, it be hard to believe, but now its hard to imagine modren life without social media, smart phone etc...

In the 80s I was using ICQ style chatrooms in school in Galway.

Got one of my first ever girlfriends that way. "Digital" were based in Galway and they hooked up terminals in all the secondary schools to a mainframe (room sized I believe) computer in their plant. Meant we could chat with girls in their schools using an app called "phone" that split the screen and displayed the text typed by both parties.

Ben D Bus

I can see computer intelligence evolving through natural selection. Self programming virtual intelligences that compete to inhabit the same resource-limited server space. This happening at mind-boggling speeds compared to biological evolution.

Give this process access to the entirety of man-made cyberspace and who knows what might happen.

Human intelligence is a result of natural selection with the only purpose being to continue to exist. I don't see why an electronic evolution can't surpass a biological one.

Such an evolution could, quite by accident, develop the ability to control connected devices and ultimately use this control to start building a physical presence for itself to inhabit.

Pure science fiction perhaps, but then, it's Friday afternoon in the office and my mind isn't quite on the job

Fathom

Robotics. Expanding. Has future. Education, research, careers, and investments. WIRED: "Rise of the Machines: The Future has Lots of Robots, Few Jobs for Humans."

bogwalrus

I could probably post in this thread all day.

I predict that in the future scientists will recognise a global threat that will wipe all living species on the planet in a short space of time.

In that time an ark will be built and sent into space to seek habitation on mars.

This sort of goes back to my point on genetic modification but the humans that make it to mars will create humans not in the traditional sense but in some sort of chamber. These new humans will be better suited to the harsh martian environment.

Fathom

bogwalrus wrote: »

humans that make it to mars will create humans not in the traditional sense but in some sort of chamber. These new humans will be better suited to the harsh martian environment.

Mars? Apocalyptic sci fi. Practically speaking. Send robots. Not humans. AI rapid advance. Robots maintain robots. Humans not needed.

BenAtar

AI, human beings, weapons of mass destruction......WOW! What a great mix!!!
Human beings are flawed, badly flawed and beyond redemption. Looking around the world, human hate, anger, greed, envy, evil etc is much in evidence. Testosterone!.....sheesh! Deadly stuff.
AI is growing and growing, looming larger and larger in the rear view mirror and will overtake us in decades.
Further down the road of Life there will be ASI, Artificial Super Intelligence. This will be beyond our comprehension.
At some point humans will become obsolete / extinct.
Human beings in charge of AI......I don't like the sound of that because we are so badly flawed.
So, best scenario?.......humans become extinct.