Is there anything to be said for another election?

Chips Lovell

After a few days where it looked liked we'd have a deal last week, negotiations now seem to be deadlocked on the issue of water. If this can't be resolved or an alternative arrangement not found, another election could well be on the cards.

Will anything change so soon after the last election? It's possible some preferences may shift in reaction to the stance taken by various parties and independents on whether to get involved in talks on government formation.

There's also a few parties, namely FG and Labour, who'd have to question the wisdom of fighting another general election with the same leaders. However, would either have time to run a leadership contest should another election be called?

Godge

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

After a few days where it looked liked we'd have a deal last week, negotiations now seem to be deadlocked on the issue of water. If this can't be resolved or an alternative arrangement not found, another election could well be on the cards.

Will anything change so soon after the last election? It's possible some preferences may shift in reaction to the stance taken by various parties and independents on whether to get involved in talks on government formation.

There's also a few parties, namely FG and Labour, who'd have to question the wisdom of fighting another general election with the same leaders. However, would either have time to run a leadership contest should another election be called?

I don't think they would have time to run a leadership contest. Essentially, that is FG's biggest problem.

By forcing a break on water charges, they will be able to take the high ground in a campaign on two fronts:

(1) FF are back to their old ways, putting government finances at risk
(2) FF need to talk to SF if they want to follow that route.

FG are not competing with AAA for votes so there is no point appealing to their voters.

The big problem with this is that it is Enda delivering the message.

Chips Lovell

We could well end up with an election fought mainly on the issue of water charges.

Can't see FG making much gains with Kenny still at the helm. If anything the momentum is with Martin. He had a good campaign last time out and is up again in the polls. That and Adams signalling a change of tack by SF means we could have an alternative government on offer if FF reciprocate.

KlausFlouride

Ivan Yates put it well, if Fine Gael go for an election with 1) Enda and 2) make it a referendum on water charges, they are clinically insane.

Chips Lovell

Yes. But they're also between a rock and a hard place. It's either fight an election on water charges or abandon them after expending so much political capital on them. Either way, it doesn't play well for them.

Fr Tod Umptious

So an election will be fought on the issue of water charges and the party that are most likely to win,FF, are the ones who signed up to water charges in the first place.

We are a bizzare lot.

Mr.Micro

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Yes. But they're also between a rock and a hard place. It's either fight an election on water charges or abandon them after expending so much political capital on them. Either way, it doesn't play well for them.

FG could just abandon water charges and win another election....as all the others gained in last election on the back of the charges. It's a simple as that. New leader for FG and abandon the charges ....

superman28

This boils down to the wasted votes given to independents. They are less than useless.. even the looney left have more to offer (obviously not SF however).. They have nothing to offer the country..

Sam Russell

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

So an election will be fought on the issue of water charges and the party that are most likely to win,FF, are the ones who signed up to water charges in the first place.

We are a bizzare lot.

Swift had it right with the 'Little Enders' and the 'Big Enders' - the two political parties in Lilliput - the only differentiation was which end they opened their boiled egg.

Irish Water - it cost €3 a week, but our national livelihood (and political future) depends on it or its abolition. You could not make it up. You cannot get a pint of beer or a litre of Ballygowan for that.

I think they have called it the thirty second Dail because that is how long it will last.

oscarBravo

Mr.Micro wrote: »

FG could just abandon water charges and win another election....as all the others gained in last election on the back of the charges. It's a simple as that. New leader for FG and abandon the charges ....

Exactly what we need: another party willing to abandon any semblance of a principle in order to cling to power at any cost. F*ck the country, won't someone think of the party!

Mr.Micro

oscarBravo wrote: »

Exactly what we need: another party willing to abandon any semblance of a principle in order to cling to power at any cost. F*ck the country, won't someone think of the party!

What difference is it going to make? The opposition to water charges is real. I believe in the water charges. The other parties are not worried about reality. If it meant sacrificing water charges and getting to grips with all the other huge issues then maybe it might be worth it for FG. FF or the others are not up to the job IMO.

KingBrian2

FG might decide that they should go into opposition and allow FF form some sort of mandate to govern with a couple of the smaller parties. See if FF have learned their lesson from the crash of 08.

Chips Lovell

Of course, if the opposition really want water charges gone, they've got the numbers to band together to form a government to do so. Seems very unlikely to happen though, at least in this Dail.

uck51js9zml2yt

superman28 wrote: »

This boils down to the wasted votes given to independents. They are less than useless.. even the looney left have more to offer (obviously not SF however).. They have nothing to offer the country..

Not true.....they can teach us all how to use AK47's and rob banks:)

Edit: forgot to add that they can teach usxto use excessive amounts of printer ink!

Jep Gambardella

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Of course, if the opposition really want water charges gone, they've got the numbers to band together to form a government to do so. Seems very unlikely to happen though, at least in this Dail.

Someone needs to let Stephen Donelly know that between his party at the 87 other TDs he mentioned today that were 'elected with a very strong mandate' [Anti-Charges], there should certainly be the capability to form a suitable majority, vote a Taoiseach, form a government and enact the legislation they require. They might disagree on all other elements, but band together given this strong mandate that he tells us they have received.

If & when the charges were scrapped by that same government, they could get around to other issues. If they were unable to broadly agree on these other issues, they might make moves to dissolve themselves in order to bring about another election.

If the 90 TDs were indeed elected on an Anti-Charges mandate, why on earth are they not acting upon it now? If it is indeed the single issue that they were elected on the back of, this inaction is tantamount to scandalous!

Extending the Single-Issue TDs to Single-Issue Governments shouldn't be beyond logic.

That all begs the question though of why this hasn't been done though. Donnelly's claim of 90 TDs' mandate doesn't quite ring true really, does it?

Chips Lovell

He's trying to have it every which way. He also said that water charges were too trivial an issue to block government formation:

It is outrageous that the 32nd Dáil could be collapsed over the issue of water, he said.

But so serious an issue as to warrant a referendum:

Mr Donnelly said that his party would call a referendum on public ownership of Irish Water, establish a national water board and end domestic charges.

I genuinely didn't expect to see Donnelly become one of the politicians that he so hated, talking out of both sides of his mouth.

oscarBravo

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The opposition to water charges is real.

The opposition to water charges is a national embarrassment. If our elected representatives fail to form a government and are forced to call a new election because Irish people don't want to pay for water, then we richly deserve the clown show we've created.

BoJack Horseman

Deleted User wrote: »

I genuinely didn't expect to see Donnelly become one of the politicians that he so hated, talking out of both sides of his mouth.

Cast our minds back to 2011.
The government had a primary deficit of around €11bn & an overall deficit of €15bn for the year.... The need for increased revenue was dire.

Donnelly regarding the USC:

The introduction of the universal social charge was a bizarre measure.....The universal social charge is a regressive tax..... it is a bizarre and regressive tax that runs contrary to our social values

4 years later and Budget 16 with the deficit back in balance pushing to surplus, they were happy to see the "bizarre" USC being cut...

Then 4 months later the ginger messiah had his Damascene conversion....

The Social Democrats have said they will not abolish the Universal Social Charge as its €4bn income is necessary to fund services.

He was asked about this change of heart but

Mr Donnelly said he couldn't recall the debate.

May not be his fault of course, his new party is 1/3rd workers party 1/3rd Labour

nhunter100

superman28 wrote:

This boils down to the wasted votes given to independents. They are less than useless.. even the looney left have more to offer (obviously not SF however).. They have nothing to offer the country..

Yet some of the best performing TD's in the previous Dail were independents. Eg Catherine Murphy.

nhunter100

Godge wrote:

The big problem with this is that it is Enda delivering the message.

Hard to deliver a message when you have at least one of your feet in your mouth.

nhunter100

Sam Russell wrote:

Irish Water - it cost €3 a week, but our national livelihood (and political future) depends on it or its abolition. You could not make it up. You cannot get a pint of beer or a litre of Ballygowan for that.

€3 a week is €156. Even single households pay €160 .Also there will be no grant paid this year. Lastly to make IW viable the minimum needed from each household is €540.

nhunter100

oscarBravo wrote:

The opposition to water charges is a national embarrassment. If our elected representatives fail to form a government and are forced to call a new election because Irish people don't want to pay for water, then we richly deserve the clown show we've created.

Irish people do pay for water, who did you think paid up till now? The tooth fairy?

Jayop

superman28 wrote: »

This boils down to the wasted votes given to independents. They are less than useless.. even the looney left have more to offer (obviously not SF however).. They have nothing to offer the country..

Absolute nonsense. You don't just decide that because you support one of the established parties that everyone else is wasting their vote. What did a vote for the Labour Party in the last dail do? The greedy power hungry leadership sold their electorate down the river for a few ministerial pensions. The Indo's at least see to have respect for the people who vote for them.

Chips Lovell

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

So an election will be fought on the issue of water charges and the party that are most likely to win,FF, are the ones who signed up to water charges in the first place.

We are a bizzare lot.

This is it. You just know that if Fianna Fail had been re-elected in 2011, it would now be them furiously trying to retain Irish Water and water charges, and Fine Gael saying they need to be scrapped.

KingBrian2

Jayop wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. You don't just decide that because you support one of the established parties that everyone else is wasting their vote. What did a vote for the Labour Party in the last dail do? The greedy power hungry leadership sold their electorate down the river for a few ministerial pensions. The Indo's at least see to have respect for the people who vote for them.

Over exaggeration. The Labour party came under immense abuse and pressure from their own voters simple for working with a centre right party. Had they joined forces with a more right wing party the left would have gone berserk.

If we look at the complaints being made about Labour it was about how they were apart of the neoliberal economy, bank bailout agenda though these positions are contradictory.

Labour got through a lot crap being spouted by the opposition benches. The opposition would not care how high the debt got as long as Labour was removed from power and replaced by an ever more left wing party.

Jayop

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Over exaggeration. The Labour party came under immense abuse and pressure from their own voters simple for working with a centre right party. Had they joined forces with a more right wing party the left would have gone berserk.

If we look at the complaints being made about Labour it was about how they were apart of the neoliberal economy, bank bailout agenda though these positions are contradictory.

Labour got through a lot crap being spouted by the opposition benches. The opposition would not care how high the debt got as long as Labour was removed from power and replace by an ever more left wing party.

You honestly think that people who voted labour in the last election felt that they kept their promises? FFS Rabbit even came out and scoffed that promises made at election time are bollocks that they didn't care about. Labour didn't get a roasting from FF or SF, they got a roasting from their own electorate for failing to keep any of the promises they made and for saying they'd go back into power with a hated FG. What was the point in voting Lab when you already know they were going to back FG?

KingBrian2

Jayop wrote: »

You honestly think that people who voted labour in the last election felt that they kept their promises? FFS Rabbit even came out and scoffed that promises made at election time are bollocks that they didn't care about. Labour didn't get a roasting from FF or SF, they got a roasting from their own electorate for failing to keep any of the promises they made and for saying they'd go back into power with a hated FG. What was the point in voting Lab when you already know they were going to back FG?

This comment goes to show the astounding misinformation out there. Labour was not given enough support in the election. All the radical leftist parties split the vote. Labour did enormously well in Dublin but without the numbers in places like Cork, mid lands and elsewhere how the hell are they suppose to negotiate with FG and keep promises to the electorate. The people voted against the left. The left were too busy making undeliverable promises.

Jayop

KingBrian2 wrote: »

This comment goes to show the astounding misinformation out there. Labour was not given enough support in the election. All the radical leftist parties split the vote. Labour did enormously well in Dublin but without the numbers in places like Cork, mid lands and elsewhere how the hell are they suppose to negotiate with FG and keep promises to the electorate. The people voted against the left. The left were too busy making undeliverable promises.

Labour did really really well in 2011. Got in with a mandate to keep the government in check and proceeded to sell their electorate down the river in return for a few nice ministerial perks. They got absolutely wrecked at the last election because everyone who voted for them could see exactly what they were which was FGlite with more interest in their personal bank accounts than the homeless man or woman on the street or those on low paid jobs.

The far left capitolised on this, but if it wasn't the AAA/PBP picking up the votes it would have been someone else.

LiamoSail

nhunter100 wrote: »

Irish people do pay for water, who did you think paid up till now? The tooth fairy?

Some Irish people do, and have done up to now. That's the problem, this group can't pay for everything, the burden needs to be shared

oscarBravo

nhunter100 wrote: »

Irish people do pay for water, who did you think paid up till now? The tooth fairy?

"Can't pay, won't pay."

"No way, we won't pay."

When we're capable of having an intelligent conversation about the topic, we'll be part of the way towards being capable of electing an adult government.

KingBrian2

oscarBravo wrote: »

"Can't pay, won't pay."

"No way, we won't pay."

When we're capable of having an intelligent conversation about the topic, we'll be part of the way towards being capable of electing an adult government.

On that note all i'll only say is were all Irish I certainly don't begrudge the opposition for the opinions and feelings they are expressing.

oscarBravo

KingBrian2 wrote: »

On that note all i'll only say is were all Irish I certainly don't begrudge the opposition for the opinions and feelings they are expressing.

Including the opposition party that were responsible for the introduction of water charges in the first place, and are now making opposition to them their cornerstone policy?

Do you seriously think that water charges are such an earth-shatteringly important issue that they justify delaying the formation of a government, and the whole, you know, running the bloody country that isn't currently happening?

Sam Russell

nhunter100 wrote: »

€3 a week is €156. Even single households pay €160 .Also there will be no grant paid this year. Lastly to make IW viable the minimum needed from each household is €540.

Depends on whether you have water plus waste, or just waste. I was taking into account the grant which I imagine as you do is dead.

However, I consider health, homelessness, security (Gardai numbers), housing supply, education at all levels, and many other issues more important.

The bin charges dominated public unrest a few years ago - we now all pay them with no complaints. Will water follow a similar political fate?

nhunter100

LiamoSail wrote:

Some Irish people do, and have done up to now. That's the problem, this group can't pay for everything, the burden needs to be shared

It is, everyone pays tax.

KingBrian2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Depends on whether you have water plus waste, or just waste. I was taking into account the grant which I imagine as you do is dead.

However, I consider health, homelessness, security (Gardai numbers), housing supply, education at all levels, and many other issues more important.

The bin charges dominated public unrest a few years ago - we now all pay them with no complaints. Will water follow a similar political fate?

I expect yes but the mismanagement of how the utility was communicated to the people and also all the political capital raised by scapegoating Irish Water was a major blow to the utility.

Sam Russell

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I expect yes but the mismanagement of how the utility was communicated to the people and also all the political capital raised by scapegoating Irish Water was a major blow to the utility.

Absolutely.

Irish water was born in an atmosphere of free money for certain groups. The local government managements and workers got free money to join. Contractors got free money for digging holes in the road, consultants - well you get the picture.

Politicians came up with the daftest charging system - free allowances for kids, different allowances for adults, and a charge rate of twice the commercial rate. And they wanted everyone's PPS number. [No electricity allowance for heating the babies bottle, so why free water for teenagers to have their long showers?] Why not a standing charge, and so much per cu m?

Bord Gais spent zillions on legal advice on how to set up a utility just like their own instead of a cut and paste job, and copy across the software.

Waste waste waste - and stuff that smells far fouler than any sewer.

Chips Lovell

Jayop wrote: »

You honestly think that people who voted labour in the last election felt that they kept their promises? FFS Rabbit even came out and scoffed that promises made at election time are bollocks that they didn't care about. Labour didn't get a roasting from FF or SF, they got a roasting from their own electorate for failing to keep any of the promises they made and for saying they'd go back into power with a hated FG. What was the point in voting Lab when you already know they were going to back FG?

Actually, when analysed, it was found Labour got a larger percentage of its policies implemented than FG.

The study undertaken by two political scientists – Rory Costello of the Department of Politics and Public Administration in the University of Limerick and Robert Thomson Head Of School Of Govt And Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow – shows that, contrary to received wisdom, Labour implemented the majority of its promises and had a big influence on government policy.

In fact, Labour emerges as marginally better than Fine Gael at getting its election promises implemented.

Jayop

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Actually, when analysed, it was found Labour got a larger percentage of its policies implemented than FG.

Major promises Vs Minor ones. Overlapping promises Vs Things FG were opposed to.

oscarBravo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Irish water was born in an atmosphere of free money for certain groups. The local government managements and workers got free money to join. Contractors got free money for digging holes in the road, consultants - well you get the picture.

I do. Apparently getting paid to do your job is "free money".

Politicians came up with the daftest charging system - free allowances for kids, different allowances for adults, and a charge rate of twice the commercial rate. And they wanted everyone's PPS number. [No electricity allowance for heating the babies bottle, so why free water for teenagers to have their long showers?] Why not a standing charge, and so much per cu m?

You'd swear that "politicians" just decided out of the blue and on a whim to come up with daft charging models. You'd swear that those charging models weren't a panicked response to the Irish public losing its collective gourd at the sheer bloody temerity of anyone asking them to pay for the water they use.

Bord Gais spent zillions on legal advice on how to set up a utility just like their own instead of a cut and paste job, and copy across the software.

I have written a billing and customer management system for a small ISP. I've been looking into the prospect of making that software available to other small ISPs - companies in exactly the same business, with pretty much exactly the same business model and exact the same requirements. My early estimate is that there are would be several man-weeks' work involved to make it possible.

So yes: it would obviously have been trivial to "copy and paste" software from a gas utility with millions of customers to a water and sewage utility with millions of customers, because those utilities are identical in every way.

Of course, if they had "copied and pasted", and it inevitably didn't work, I'm sure the ever-rational Irish public would have been entirely forgiving.

Waste waste waste - and stuff that smells far fouler than any sewer.

It's amazing how the same people who get into hysterics about all the money that was wasted to move to a polluter-pays model are only too happy to accept whatever money needs to be wasted to move back to a someone-else-pays model.

Lavinia

I'd love to see another round.
Water charges are a scum because water is already paid and covered via taxes. If those remain should they then reduce the taxes since it will not be the financial source for the water costs?
No they won't won't they.
So it's not about the water, it is about how to make "rich richer and poor poorer". Shame really.

KlausFlouride

The water charge is/was on top of a massive income tax burden for majority of workers & high VAT & all the other hidden fees & charges (TV license, levies on car insurance). This is against a background where people are faced with paying health insurance and taking out a pension. It's the gradual erosion of people's income and getting less & less in return. And people aren't stupid, they realise that like electricity, the water charge will gradually increase to the point where it becomes a burden.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Sam Russell

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

It is not Dublin that is pumping sewage into the seas and rivers.

You could pay for water by not building motorways like the one from Gort to Tuam. However, we need both.

However I think the simple charging system of a fixed charge plus a usage charge per cu m is correct. It works for gas and electricity so why not for water?

What went wrong for Irish water was the rushed implementation, not properly thought out, and no consultation. For example, the 'First Fix Free' line was daft - what if the work was not up to scratch? Surely the line should have been ' We will always fix leaks from the meter up to the building - and we will fit a new stopcock there if necessary'. Just one further niggle for the antis to grasp. More of them - 'We need your PPS number' 'We need to know how many people live in your house, and their ages' 'You must sign up as a customer' - there was no end of them.

Sam Russell

oscarBravo wrote: »

I do. Apparently getting paid to do your job is "free money". You'd swear that "politicians" just decided out of the blue and on a whim to come up with daft charging models. You'd swear that those charging models weren't a panicked response to the Irish public losing its collective gourd at the sheer bloody temerity of anyone asking them to pay for the water they use. I have written a billing and customer management system for a small ISP. I've been looking into the prospect of making that software available to other small ISPs - companies in exactly the same business, with pretty much exactly the same business model and exact the same requirements. My early estimate is that there are would be several man-weeks' work involved to make it possible.

So yes: it would obviously have been trivial to "copy and paste" software from a gas utility with millions of customers to a water and sewage utility with millions of customers, because those utilities are identical in every way.

Of course, if they had "copied and pasted", and it inevitably didn't work, I'm sure the ever-rational Irish public would have been entirely forgiving.
It's amazing how the same people who get into hysterics about all the money that was wasted to move to a polluter-pays model are only too happy to accept whatever money needs to be wasted to move back to a someone-else-pays model.

The 'Free money' idea comes from the apparent need to spend €500m installing meters on every property in the state instead of working a system where they would only be installed where required. The UK manages with only 40% of homes metered. Also, the cost of the meter programme suddenly jumped by €100m.

'Free money comes from having €400m spent setting up a new utility - most going to 'consultants'. Now I know that is a disingenuous phrasing, but it is an excessive cost. It is a pity that the costs were not spelled out before the legislation was passed.

A mess from beginning to end. It might have worked if it had been handled properly.

Lavinia

Sam Russell wrote: »

However I think the simple charging system of a fixed charge plus a usage charge per cu m is correct. It works for gas and electricity so why not for water?

Because vast majority does not have a way of measuring the water usage.
Ireland is soooooooooo far away from countries who are billing the water where every single unit has a proper meter.

Mr.Micro

oscarBravo wrote: »

The opposition to water charges is a national embarrassment. If our elected representatives fail to form a government and are forced to call a new election because Irish people don't want to pay for water, then we richly deserve the clown show we've created.

That is most likely what will happen. Common sense rarely prevails with the electorate.

If I might add, a good proportion of the current elected representatives are using the water charges as an obstacle to avoid forming a Government, self/ party preservation first, for the good of the country whenever.

Mr.Micro

Mr.Micro wrote: »

FG could just abandon water charges and win another election....as all the others gained in last election on the back of the charges. It's a simple as that. New leader for FG and abandon the charges ....

Looks like the first step

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0427/784501-government-formation/

Chips Lovell

Yep, if that's the deal then they're almost certainly a goner. No matter what an independent commission recommends on the future of water charges, no Oireachtas committee is going to do anything other than opt for their abolition and it will be another generation at least before any government dares to re-introduce them.

Jayop

Good times. Now I'd say we'll get one FG budget then back to the people.

BoJack Horseman

A lesson learned for all current and future politicians.

Never, ever introduce something that all households have to contribute to.
Keep things focused on taking more from workers & business.

We do need another election.