Boards forecast contest May 2016

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Belmullet reached 25c at 3pm. Think that was highest.

Markree n Finner got 24c

Belmullet 25.4 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Valentia 23.7mm rain yesterday (and 4.0 hours of sunshine)
Sherkin Island got 0.9mm.
DOCARCH misses bullseye by a day!

M.T. Cranium

New list after the 10th as noted by Tae Laidir

1. 23.7 _ Valentia (10th)
2. 19.0 _ Sherkin (9th)
3. 14.4 _ Mountdillon (7th)
4. 13.6 _ Malin Head (2nd)

Jpmarn and DOCARCH are going to do well in this bonus even if there are heavier falls later with quite a few points available only to them on date portion.

M.T. Cranium

IMT after 11th had climbed to 11.9 and estimate after today is 12.1 ... after that it should remain fairly close to 12 but could fall back slightly due to colder nights expected over the weekend.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT after 11th had climbed to 11.9 and estimate after today is 12.1 ... after that it should remain fairly close to 12 but could fall back slightly due to colder nights expected over the weekend.

A remarkable jump alright!

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks (fourteen days) ...

IMT now 12.2 C after a week that averaged 14.5 (3.6 above normal for the period). This first two weeks have averaged 1.7 degrees above normal for the period.

PRC has fallen off slightly to 110% with this past week 91% (varied from 1% at Malin Head to 186% at Cork).

SUN remains on 99% of normal at our six stations with this past week 99% (less 2 after the +3 from 99 in the first week so net +1 over 99 for the final analysis). Despite that Malin Head managed 201% but until next year we are not using Malin Head or Knock which managed 120% (Belmullet in our stats group had 136%).

M.T. Cranium

Yesterday, Dunsany managed 14.8 mm and moved into third place in the rainfall maximum list. Sryanbruen would get 2 points for date if this one holds up to end of month (worth 3) with his guess of 18th. Location points will be sparse at best as Leinster is far away from where most of us guessed.

1. 23.7 _ Valentia (10th)
2. 19.0 _ Sherkin (9th)
3. 14.8 _ Dunsany (17th)
4. 14.4 _ Mountdillon (7th)
5. 13.6 _ Malin Head (2nd)

Tae laidir

Knock Airport got 14.3mm of rain yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

The rainfall on 20th (14.3, Knock) ranked fifth but 21st has knocked that out of the top five ...

1. 23.7 _ Valentia (10th)
2. 19.2 _ Oak Park (21st)
3. 19.0 _ Sherkin (9th)
4. 14.8 _ Dunsany (17th)
5. 14.4 _ Mountdillon (7th)

M.T. Cranium

I have just edited the previous post to update the list for the 19.2 mm at Oak Park, once again a location quite some distance from most of our location guesses, but a date that will make some points for a few of us.

Meanwhile, here's the third week update ...

IMT now 11.9(2) with the week ending up 11.2 C which was 0.2 below normal on average for the period.

PRC has taken a rise to 124% as the week finished on 152% of normal.

SUN is now right on normal after yet another week very close to average, this time it was 101% despite a much lower 51% at Valentia, so otherwise it was generally quite sunny. (the detailed stat is -2/6 from 100.0)

M.T. Cranium

Nothing new yet on the heavy rainfall file, the scattered showers have not been heavy enough over the various weather stations the past few days.

Meanwhile, after four weeks,

IMT now stands at 11.7 with the week only 11.1 (0.9 below normal).

PRC has fallen to 98.5% of normal with a relatively dry week (22% on average).

SUN now stands at 105% after a week that averaged 121% (better in Munster). (from 420.8/4 = 105.2)

Would expect IMT to finish near 11.9, PRC could fall slightly to about 95% and SUN should hold on near 105% but could improve slightly.

M.T. Cranium

Just a few more raindrops at Cork yesterday would have been helpful for my guess, but anyway, the thunderstorms that came and went there left 14.7 mm, good for fourth place. Markree also had 14.4 mm yesterday. The updated list (and possibly final too) is

1. 23.7 _ Valentia (10th)
2. 19.2 _ Oak Park (21st)
3. 19.0 _ Sherkin (9th)
4. 14.8 _ Dunsany (17th)
5. 14.7 _ Cork (29th)

M.T. Cranium

Final values either confirmed or closely estimated:

IMT 12.0 (from 11.96)

PRC 91%

SUN 115% (assuming 200% of normal 29th to 31st)

That last figure will need to be checked against MS, the IMT and PRC are calculated from monthly data.

It will be a bit of work to figure out the bonus, perhaps this was not the best month to do a heavy rainfall bonus and I suspect a lot of very close scores. Oh well ...

As the MS will be out tomorrow, I won't bother with a preliminary scoring table, you can estimate how you're going to finish. MAX will require scoring enhancements but everything else looks straight-forward.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Final values either confirmed or closely estimated:

IMT 12.0 (from 11.96)

PRC 91%

SUN 115% (assuming 200% of normal 29th to 31st)

That last figure will need to be checked against MS, the IMT and PRC are calculated from monthly data.

It will be a bit of work to figure out the bonus, perhaps this was not the best month to do a heavy rainfall bonus and I suspect a lot of very close scores. Oh well ...

As the MS will be out tomorrow, I won't bother with a preliminary scoring table, you can estimate how you're going to finish. MAX will require scoring enhancements but everything else looks straight-forward.

Well apart from the mean temperature, I think I did fairly well.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for May 2016

There were no changes after I checked the estimated values against the Monthly Summary. The final values are added to the table. The bonus was scored according to the rules set out and those scores were re-ordered from 10 down to zero, essentially it worked out to about four fewer points than the raw scores that were calculated. The month has produced fairly high scoring and for a change Norma L beat Con Sensus.


FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Bonus ___ TOTAL

Confirmed values ______12.0_25.4_-1.4_091_115__Val 10th (see list in earlier post)

mickger844posts _______ 22 _ 06 _ 18 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 9 _____ 79
lostinashford ___________23 _ 11 _ 17 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 8 _____ 77
waterways ____________ 19 _ 16 _ 20 _ 11 _ 09 ____ 0 _____ 75
Dacogawa _____________17 _ 18 _ 16 _ 09 _ 07 ____ 8 _____ 75
Jpmarn_______________ 23 _ 14 _ 11 _ 09 _ 06 ____10 _____ 73
MrSkinner _____________16 _ 07 _ 17 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 9 _____ 73
Rikand ______ (-5) _____ 20 _ 11 _ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 7 _ 78-5=73
DOCARCH _____________19 _ 00 _ 19 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 71

Norma L ______________ 17 _ 11 _ 19 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 5 _____ 71

200motels_____________19 _ 09 _ 16 _ 11 _ 08 ____ 7 _____ 70
M.T. Cranium __________17 _ 14 _ 14 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 6 _____ 69

Con Sensus ___________ 17 _ 06 _ 16 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 8 _____ 67

John mac _____________15 _ 12 _ 19 _ 10 _ 06 ____ 4 _____ 66
Lumi _________________18 _ 02 _ 13 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 9 _____ 65
sryanbruen ____________17 _ 08 _ 16 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 3 _____ 65
Joe Public _____________24 _ 10 _ 05 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 1 _____ 63
sunflower3 ____________17 _ 04 _ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 6 _____ 61
JD _________ (-3) _____ 16 _ 05 _ 12 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 9 _ 64-3=61
Kindred Spirit __ (-1) ___ 15 _ 03 _ 16 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 6 _ 62-1=61
rameire _____ (-4) _____ 16 _ 07 _ 17 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 2 _ 63-4=59
pauldry _______________14 _ 01 _ 18 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 5 _____ 56
Dasa29 _______________10 _ 06 _ 16 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 6 _____ 56
Bsal _________________ 15 _ 03 _ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 4 _____ 53
Tae laidir _____________ 20 _ 04 _ 07 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 2 _____ 47

Congrats to Mickger844posts, Lostinashford and (tied) waterways and dacogawa for top scores this month. Annual update will be posted soon.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring for 2016


___ FORECASTER _________Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May __ TOTAL ____ best 4 of 5
rank/
01 mickger844posts ________78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 ____ 377 _____ 314 (1)

02 Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 ____ 362 _____ 292 (3)

02 Lumi __________________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 ____ 356 _____ 297 (2)
03 lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 ____ 353 _____ 290 (4)
04 waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 ____ 349 _____ 291 (3)
05 MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 ____ 344 _____ 286 (5)
06 Tae laidir ______________ 86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 ____ 331 _____ 285 (6t)
07 Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 ____ 330 _____ 271 (13)
08 Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 ____ 328 _____ 285 (6t)
09t Dacogawa _____________52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 ____ 324 _____ 274 (10)
09t Rikand ________________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 ____ 324 _____ 270 (14)

11 M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 ____ 321 _____ 275 (9)
13t 200motels ____________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 ____ 319 _____ 273 (11)
13t Jpmarn _______________64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 ____ 319 _____ 272 (12)
14 DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 ____ 318 _____ 265 (15)

15 Norma L _______________52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 ____ 315 _____ 263 (16t)

15t Bsal _________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 ____ 310 _____ 257 (19)
15t JD___________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 ____ 310 _____ 278 (8)
17 Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 ____ 303 _____ 258 (18)
18 Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 ____ 300 _____ 247 (21)
19 Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 ____ 291 _____ 263 (16)
20 Sryanbruen ____________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 ____ 283 _____ 256 (20)

21 john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 ____ 275 _____ 239 (22)
22 Schadenfreudia _________ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- ____ 260 _____ 260 (17)
23 kindredspirit ____________ -- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 ____ 219 _____ 219 (23)
24 omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- ____ 191
25 Timmyboy ______________-- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _____ 53
26 Elmer Blooker ___________ -- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _____ 51
______________________________________________________________

Mickger844posts has now established a lead in both the gross score and best 4 of 5 and remains the only forecaster ahead of Con Sensus in the total score, with Lumi second in both categories, Lostinashford moving up to third for total and fourth in best scores, waterways holding fourth for total and third for best scores.

Next up will be an update on the "four seasons" contest with spring scoring now complete.

Rikand

getting in late is starting to hurt me

M.T. Cranium

Updated Four Seasons contest report -- spring 2016

FORECASTER _______ Spring total ___ points __ winter __ TOTAL (rank)

mickger844posts _________236 ______ 10 _____ 4 _____14 (1)
lostinashford ____________ 218 _______ 7 _____ 3 ____ 10 (t2)
Dacogawa ______________ 214 _______ 6 _____ -- ____ 6 (t6)

Con Sensus ____________ 214 _______ 6 _____ 2 _____ 8 (4)

Lumi __________________ 213 _______ 5 _____ 2 _____ 7 (5)
M.T. Cranium ___________ 213 _______ 5 _____ -- _____ 5 (t8)
200motels _____________ 205 _______ 3 _____ -- _____ 3 (10)
DOCARCH ______________203 _______ 2 _____ -- _____ 2 (11)
Rameire _______________ 201 _______ 1 _____ -- _____ 1 (t12)
Joe Public ______________ 200 _______ 1 _____ -- _____ 1 (t12)
waterways _____________ 199 _______ 1 _____ 7 ______8 (4)
MrSkinner ______________195 _______ -- _____ 5 _____ 5 (t8)
Jpmarn ________________195 _______ -- _____ -- _____ 0
Sryanbruen ____________ 193 _______ -- _____ -- _____ 0
Sunflower3 _____________185 _______ -- _____ 1 _____ 1 (t12)
Kindred spirit ___________184 _______ -- _____ -- _____ 0
Rikand ________________ 181 _______ -- ____ 10 ____ 10 (t2)
Pauldry _______________ 181 _______ -- _____ -- _____ 0
Bsal __________________ 179 _______ -- _____ -- _____0
Dasa29 _______________ 176 _______ -- _____ -- _____ 0
Tae laidir ______________ 169 _______ -- _____ 6 _____ 6 (t6)
JD____________________ 164 _______ -- _____ 1 _____ 1 (t12)
John mac ______________ 146 _______ -- _____ -- _____0
Schadenfreudia _________ 123 _______ -- _____ 1 _____ 1 (t12)

____________________________________________

Table shows the order of points for the spring season, the annual totals are ranked.