Independents: Who's on board?

Chips Lovell

With a deal seemingly nearly been done for Fianna Fail to facilitate a Fine Gael-led minority government, attention is now going to turn to which Independents will support it. The magic number is 58, so at least eight are needed to get it across the line.

There's been lots of talking to date, but so far only one, Katherine Zappone, has opted in. A new childcare package for working parents appears to be one of the conditions of her support.

The Independent Alliance also appear to be fairly serious about going. One of their number, John Halligan, is pushing for a 24 hour cardiac care unit for Waterford University Hospital.

IA's Shane Ross is meanwhile asking for an independent commission for judicial appointments, although formulating how that will work is proving a bit problematic:

Ross wanted an independent body to appoint judges, he told the meeting. Fine Gael asked him who would appoint that body, so Ross suggested it could be appointed by another independent body. They resisted the temptation to ask him who should appoint that body, but Fine Gael were beginning to think Ross would never do a deal and stick to it.

Other potentials seem to include the two Healy-Raes and the group of five labelled the "rural independents" Mattie McGrath, Denis Naughten, Noel Grealish, Michael Harty, and Michael Collins.

StewartGriffin

If they have Zappone and Lowry, then that leaves 6. Jackie Healy Ray wasn't ruling anything out on Newstalk this morning.

I think the lure of a Merc will be difficult to resist for any independently elected politician. Contrast the day to day routine of an opposition independent TD to that of a full government Minister. I think they will be tripping over each other to get in line for those briefs.

L1011

StewartGriffin wrote: »

I think the lure of a Merc will be difficult to resist for any independently elected politician. Contrast the day to day routine of an opposition independent TD to that of a full government Minister. I think they will be tripping over each other to get in line for those briefs.

Being able to nominate a buddy to the Seanad will probably be something hard to leave for some of them who have big ground organisations to support. While I'm sure FG will want to use all 11 for itself they may be able to spare one or two if they can agree some support deal from the Labour (who could have 5 despite predictions of 2/3 at best) or independent senators. Rather like councils nobody outside political junkies usually even knows what deals are agreed in the Seanad let alone cares, so its easier to get away with such deals.

Godge

StewartGriffin wrote: »

If they have Zappone and Lowry, then that leaves 6. Jackie Healy Ray wasn't ruling anything out on Newstalk this morning.

I think the lure of a Merc will be difficult to resist for any independently elected politician. Contrast the day to day routine of an opposition independent TD to that of a full government Minister. I think they will be tripping over each other to get in line for those briefs.

I think the Healy-Raes have already been bought by the promise of a Ministry. There will be a cavalcade down to Killarney and Tralee and an open-top bus tour of the county. Countless goodies to be handed out as well.

I think Naughten will come on board as well as a Minister, he left FG in spite and coming back as a Minister will be a good move, he could well be a candidate for them next time out.

After that, it gets harder. Grealish won't support FF, so he could be persuaded on that basis but I don't know where the last 2/3 will come from.

Chips Lovell

I think they'd still need eight in addition to Lowry. They can't (or at least said they won't) do a deal with them so while he's backing them now, he could withdraw it at any time.

Zubeneschamali

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Contrast the day to day routine of an opposition independent TD to that of a full government Minister.

"Full Govt Minister"? Zappone might get something for showing willing. No way is Lowry getting anything from FG. The rest will be lucky to get minister-of-state-for-Kerry-pork-deals.

StewartGriffin

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

"Full Govt Minister"? Zappone might get something for showing willing. No way is Lowry getting anything from FG. The rest will be lucky to get minister-of-state-for-Kerry-pork-deals.

Does seem strange, but Newstalk this morning speculated that as many as 3 full ministries would go to independents.

Perhaps it's nonsense, or perhaps it's a case that FG dont want to fill the entire Cabinet so they can share the blame around come next election. Or maybe it's a FF demand?

Tabnabs

There's talk of Zappone being offered Education. Likely just talk, but can't see the Catholic Bishops being too impressed if it came to pass

She'd take the job for the pension alone...

Zubeneschamali

Tabnabs wrote: »

She'd take the job for the pension alone...

What an unpleasant thing to say about someone with her CV.

Godge

Tabnabs wrote: »

There's talk of Zappone being offered Education. Likely just talk, but can't see the Catholic Bishops being too impressed if it came to pass

She'd take the job for the pension alone...

I think that last comment is harsh, unless you have personal experience and knowledge of the woman.

Tabnabs

Tabnabs wrote: »

There's talk of Zappone being offered Education. Likely just talk, but can't see the Catholic Bishops being too impressed if it came to pass

She'd take the job for the pension alone...

She is a well educated, courageous woman. She has years of experience in teaching and knows what she's talking about. Taken from her website "During the past twenty eight years of living and working here, I have lectured on ethics, practical theology and education in Trinity College Dublin, founded An Cosán — one of the largest community education and enterprise centres, located in Tallaght West" http://senatorkatherinezappone.ie/index.php/about/biography

mahoganygas

58 is the magic number but they should be aiming for higher than this.

With such a colourful cabinet made up of independents from every walk of life, I would be nervous of 1 or 2 of them throwing their toys out of the pram and bolting.

An additional 2 seats could mean the difference between a 3 month government and a 3 year government.

StewartGriffin

I think if an independent is offered a ministry the first thing they should consider is that if they don't take it someone else will. Why should Zappone turn down education just to see some FG bot take the post?

Zubeneschamali

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Why should Zappone turn down education just to see some FG bot take the post?

Because as a minister, you get the blame for everything that is wrong in your enormous Department, an organization you had no say in setting up or staffing. You get very little time to make any changes, the changes you can make are minimal since the whole place is staffed by civil servants who are permanent, the changes you can make will probably have no effect during your time, and you'll lose your seat at the next election.

Two ministers who started in 2011 full of plans to reform their departments: James O'Reilly and Alan Shatter. Compare that with moaning on the backbenches: zero risk, get your name in the papers all the time, back in on the first count next election.

L1011

Irish Times suggests some Seanad nominations are to go to the independents buddies as part of the deal - and two to Labour to try buy the other 5

nice_guy80

great news!!