What's Varadkar up to?

Chips Lovell

After finally reaching a breakthrough on a minority government deal, minister for Health Leo Varadkar broke ranks yesterday and tossed a grenade into proceedings by having a right old go at Fianna Fail:

Mr Varadkar also said he has found Fianna Fáil's concentration on Irish Water during government negotiations "a bit surreal".

Speaking on RTÉ’s Today with Keelin Shanley, Mr Varadkar said there were many issues on which Fianna Fáil could have threatened a new election, such as the restoration of public service pay or insistence that a national health service be developed.

So what's he up to? Was it a case of him running his mouth off or was it more calcuated, the first salvo in his campaign to unseat Enda Kenny. I'm sure there's plenty in FG who reckon the party won't fare any better in the next election under Kenny's stewardship. By distancing himself from the deal, is Varadkar staking out a position as the alternative?

BoJack Horseman

Jeb is mad for the thread starting all of a sudden!

FrancieBrady

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

After finally reaching a breakthrough on a minority government deal, minister for Health Leo Varadkar broke ranks yesterday and tossed a grenade into proceedings by having a right old go at Fianna Fail:



So what's he up to? Was it a case of him running his mouth off or was it more calcuated, the first salvo in his campaign to unseat Enda Kenny. I'm sure there's plenty in FG who reckon the party won't fare any better in the next election under Kenny's stewardship. By distancing himself from the deal, is Varadkar staking out a position as the alternative?

He'll pull the horns in now, but crucially be able to point to this 'courageous stand' he took when things go sour, either with Enda or with the shiny new government.
He is openly stalking the leadership now.

Chips Lovell

FF expressing outrage, but seem to realise he's playing to the gallery:

Mr Troy said: “Leo is playing to the backbench TDs. It is quite obvious that the leadership is foremost of his mind.

“Leo is doing the exact same as Boris Johnson is doing with the Tories. It is all about the party leadership. He would be best focusing on the issues facing the health service and the mental health service.”

StewartGriffin

OSI wrote: »

It's a clever move. There'll be plenty in FG who feel Enda has just torn apart the cornerstone of their last government and the thing they had to fight hardest to justify, costing many of them their career.

But what were the options?

Option 1. Hold firm on water charges, leading to another election where: a) FG do a little better, gain 4 or 5 seats, and then still need FF support for a minority govt. Nothing gained there. b) FG lose seats and end up in opposition in minority FF govt. c) FG get hammered at the polls.
Either way, water charges are gone.

Option 2. Give in on water charges, go back into govt for a few years, revamp the party with a new leader before next election and trust in in the voters proven track record of having the political memory of a goldfish.

Not sure that any FG members can really say Kenny chose the wrong option here.

Chips Lovell

Surely some in FG must be thinking of Ned Stark in Game of Thrones. "The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword", i.e. if FF want water charges gone, then they should be the ones to do it.

uck51js9zml2yt

Regina was on radio this morning defending the water charges and saying it was a mad decision.

screamer

The heave in FG has already started.... Leo getting off the blocks first.
I think we'll be back voting again soon, and won't have a government till the autumn at this rate.
But I have to giggle too, cause it's obvious "politicians" in this country couldn't run water downhill.... literally.

FrancieBrady

screamer wrote: »

The heave in FG has already started.... Leo getting off the blocks first.
I think we'll be back voting again soon, and won't have a government till the autumn at this rate.
But I have to giggle too, cause it's obvious "politicians" in this country couldn't run water downhill.... literally.

I cannot see any arrangement being stable and would be highly critical of this 'arrangement'.

Fear stalks this entire push for government on so many fronts.

mahoganygas

It was a smart move.
Either Varadkar or Coveney had to distance themselves from the deal. Varadkar got there first.

When the government collapses, the new FG leader needs somebody to blame. Varadkar can now criticise Kenny and the other FG negotiating team (incl. Coveney) for making a bad deal.

He can say "I told you so" and go into the leadership contest much stronger.

koutoubia

I hate FF but you gonna hand it to them that they are playing a blinder.
Forcing the split in FG while still letting them hang themselves whilst at the same time stealing the clothes of Anti Water brigade but at the same time sitting back and not having to take any responsibility. Leo breaking ranks is the first sign of the cracks. Watch while FF sit back and watch while war breaks out in FG.

FrancieBrady

koutoubia wrote: »

I hate FF but you gonna hand it to them that they are playing a blinder.
Forcing the split in FG while still letting them hang themselves whilst at the same time stealing the clothes of Anti Water brigade but at the same time sitting back and not having to take any responsibility. Leo breaking ranks is the first sign of the cracks. Watch while FF sit back and watch while war breaks out in FG.

War within FG was inevitable on this.
What remains to be seen is, has Enda the power to bring about a truce or has he thrown caution to the wind just to be Taoiseach.
Varadkar seizing of the moment so publicly and vociferously tends to make me think that caution has been ejected and the weakness has been exposed.

WheatenBriar

I'd say Enda will be giving him a pat on the back to be honest
Enda is the most blue shirt leader FG has ever had in my opinion and must be delighted with the airing of what is his opinion too

The media faced with a news void otherwise,are of course stirring the pot by encouraging it

Meanwhile negotiations carry on,the government will be formed and it wouldn't surprise me if behind the scenes dispute settlement procedures will be in place
There will be a 3 year government and do you know what probably 5,with Enda retiring by year 3

Tabnabs

koutoubia wrote: »

I hate FF but you gonna hand it to them that they are playing a blinder.
Forcing the split in FG while still letting them hang themselves whilst at the same time stealing the clothes of Anti Water brigade but at the same time sitting back and not having to take any responsibility. Leo breaking ranks is the first sign of the cracks. Watch while FF sit back and watch while war breaks out in FG.

Are they though?

I think Varadkar is both correct in what he's saying - it is a bizarre thing to focus on when there's so much wrong with the country now and Varadkar also knows that Kenny is a lame duck and the next election posters will be clear of IW and Enda Kenny. A spell in opposition, at the helm of FG, propping up a minority FF government. FF could be found to be writing the rules to their own downfall and return to relative obscurity.

koutoubia

Yep. As a political analyst pointed out yesterday 'it's a very fine line FF are walking.Could end up going badly wrong'
I think they are gambling that Kenny wants to be in charge for some amount of a second term so he can go down in history regardless of the cost .
If this is the case FG's who got a kicking in the election over water (and other things) won't be happy for Ends to surrender to water charges and war breaks out.

K-9

He's playing to his base in FG.

Don't think it's particularly clever though, even if FG got 60/65 seats under him he'll still have to do some deal on IW as there's nobody pro IW barring FG.

It'll probably be forgotten though, as a FF TD put it, you'd swear Health was running along smoothly, doesn't seem to affect Leo anyway!

Chips Lovell

Tabnabs wrote: »

I think Varadkar is both correct in what he's saying - it is a bizarre thing to focus on when there's so much wrong with the country now and Varadkar also knows that Kenny is a lame duck and the next election posters will be clear of IW and Enda Kenny.

It's a bizarre thing but it's a popular thing. Being anti-water charges is a sure fire vote winner at present.

K-9 wrote: »

...there's nobody pro IW barring FG...

Labour and the Greens would be too. But still, the three combined would probably be short of a majority even if they did gain seats the next time out.

K-9

True, I'd forgotten Alan Kelly made a big deal of it the other day.

martingriff

K-9 wrote: »

He's playing to his base in FG.

Don't think it's particularly clever though, even if FG got 60/65 seats under him he'll still have to do some deal on IW as there's nobody pro IW barring FG.

It'll probably be forgotten though, as a FF TD put it, you'd swear Health was running along smoothly, doesn't seem to affect Leo anyway!

Pro IW I would saynot. Pro water charges is a different story. I think Varadker is saying 2 things here. 1 is most certainly to get him out and centre but the other is the fact that the water issue took up so much time and seemed like the greatest prority when there are far more pressing matters like health homlessness gang crime etc

djpbarry

I get the distinct impression from reading this thread that people have absolutely no idea what a desperate state the water infrastructure is in in Ireland.

There are major Victorian underground waterways and sewers in Dublin that were identified as being in dire need of maintenance back in the 90s that are now at serious risk of collapse. Excess levels of lead in drinking water (from lead water mains) affect roughly half a million people.

I really can't think of many more important issues than ensuring that the populace has a clean, safe water supply.

FF and FG clearly disagree and are in the process of putting their parties interests ahead of a potential public health crisis.

So maybe Varadkar was being strategic.

Or maybe, like me, he's just thinking "FFS".

TripleC

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

After finally reaching a breakthrough on a minority government deal, minister for Health Leo Varadkar broke ranks yesterday and tossed a grenade into proceedings by having a right old go at Fianna Fail:



So what's he up to? Was it a case of him running his mouth off or was it more calcuated, the first salvo in his campaign to unseat Enda Kenny. I'm sure there's plenty in FG who reckon the party won't fare any better in the next election under Kenny's stewardship. By distancing himself from the deal, is Varadkar staking out a position as the alternative?

Interesting thread.

I think this is simply a case of Leo running his mouth off. I say that because if this was an opening salvo in a Leadership heave then it was particularly ill judged.

Firstly, Leo appeared on National TV firmly stating that suspending Water Charges was completely contrary to the National Interest, from a Societal, Fiscal and Infrastructural point of view. And yet without pausing for breath he proclaimed that he was ready to serve in a Government he believed was demonstrably doing the wrong thing.

Secondly, he seemed oblivious to the fact that he was one of the negotiators who had given such an apparently damaging concession.

Far from marking him out as a Leader it merely made him seem duplicitous, power hungry and stupid.

FrancieBrady

He looked mighty happy and had rare smiles on his beak this evening.

micosoft

Well there seems to be an odd idea that Irish Water is off the agenda permanently with this deal. Taking water charges off the table is simply pushing the problem down the line and not particularly far either. When the EU starts to fine us in a years time and major problems arise with the Dublin water supply in particular this will become a massive topic again. Varadkar wants to be able to say in two years time "I told you so". It could be a clever move if the electorate feel they were sold a pup by FF and others.

WheatenBriar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He looked mighty happy and had rare smiles on his beak this evening.

Did you see the FF boys? All stern,angry looking and manly...
Trying to look important like

unit 1

So many people here and especially on "pie.ie" seem to miss the blindingly obvious.
The advantages of being in power, particularly in a growing economy greatly outweigh the disadvantages, yet people continuously talk about, being better in opposition, rebuilding in opposition, no electoral advantage, being crucified by the voters(in 3 years time), a fresh election, reneging on election promises, yada yada yada.
No government minister will think about the above as they receive their seal of office, they will however (even leo) be grateful to EK for putting them there.
Meanwhile FFers will look on seething that they did'nt get their turn after it took michael about a month to figure out that 43<50.

Leonard Hofstadter

micosoft wrote: »

Well there seems to be an odd idea that Irish Water is off the agenda permanently with this deal. Taking water charges off the table is simply pushing the problem down the line and not particularly far either. When the EU starts to fine us in a years time and major problems arise with the Dublin water supply in particular this will become a massive topic again. Varadkar wants to be able to say in two years time "I told you so". It could be a clever move if the electorate feel they were sold a pup by FF and others.

Hopefully the EU will put them back in their box in relation to water charges. My understanding of the EU's WFD is that we have to have metered charges - as in we can't just get rid of them because it suits the political agenda.

The past week has shown that 'new' FF is exactly the same as the old FF, and also just how lucky we should consider ourselves to be in having so much EU oversight, because we're utterly incapable of Governing ourselves.

I'm so glad we have the EU fiscal compact because otherwise spending would be gone off the rails now in an attempt to buy the electorate with all kinds of vanity and populist projects.

Seth Brundle

captainspeed wrote: »

The past week has shown that 'new' FF is exactly the same as the old FF,

To be fair, FF never once claimed to have changed.

Leonard Hofstadter

kbannon wrote: »

To be fair, FF never once claimed to have changed.

Yeah I suppose.

Even though I despise the alphabet alliance with every fibre of my being, at least they were consistently opposed to water charges. There was some logic in what they were saying - the logic was terrible but at least there was a logic and consistency to their position. But FF agreed to them twice, first with the Greens and then for a second time with the IMF. Now they're getting rid of them. It sickens me how stupid some people can be that they'd vote for FF. Many of the other parties aren't to my taste, but at least they actually believe in something.

Vardakar's outbursts have proven yet again why he's the only man for the imminent vacancy at the Department of an Taoiseach. He's a no-nonsense, BS free, straight talking politician, and isn't afraid to say stuff that's unpopular. A complete contrast from Enda Kenny and FG's best hope by a mile of reconnecting with the electorate in the inevitable general election later on this year or early next year (anyone who thinks this minority Government will last 2-3 years is living in cloud cuckoo land), who at least respect what he's got to say (even if they may not like the message he's telling them).

Icepick

Varadkar is up to speaking the truth. And FF yet again proved they are the most populist party.

Leonard Hofstadter

Truth and honesty are two things in short supply with the mainstream parties at the moment. Having Varadkar as FG leader would at least restore credibility with the electorate. True Varadkar can put his foot in it at times, but I think actually the public like that, while it was embarrassing for the Government at the time, he was right about the whistleblowers. He was right after the election when he said FG should have gone into opposition. He was right last week when he spoke about the grubby little deal over IW. And he's also right about John Halligan wanting some sort of cardiac care restored in Waterford - more parish pump politics.

He's certainly divisive and I know some old school FGers don't like him, not to mention the independents. He's definitely less likely to keep this minority Government going than some of the other potential future Taoisigh. That's seen as risky. On the other hand I want to see this minority Government fail. I don't believe it will last, and I certainly don't believe anything good will be done, every difficult decision will be fudged and put off for some other time. Whenever we do eventually get around to forming a Government, it's going to be a rubbish one anyway, partly because of all the bloody independents, but also because we know that FF can't be trusted as far as they can be thrown (written agreement or not) so they'll be looking over their shoulders all the time wondering when FF will pull the rug on it. That's why it's absolutely essential that FG gets rid of Enda Kenny soon, for a start it decreases the likelihood of FF trying to pull the rug on it (FG will be far more electable with someone else as leader and FF aren't going to pull the rug unless they think there's political gain in it for them) and even if they do decide to go early, FG will be in a much better position to fight an election without Mr Kenny as leader.

Simon Harris would be my choice of FG leader but he's just too young this time around. Next time there is a vacancy, though, he should get it.

micosoft

captainspeed wrote: »

Hopefully the EU will put them back in their box in relation to water charges. My understanding of the EU's WFD is that we have to have metered charges - as in we can't just get rid of them because it suits the political agenda.

The past week has shown that 'new' FF is exactly the same as the old FF, and also just how lucky we should consider ourselves to be in having so much EU oversight, because we're utterly incapable of Governing ourselves.

I'm so glad we have the EU fiscal compact because otherwise spending would be gone off the rails now in an attempt to buy the electorate with all kinds of vanity and populist projects.

I'm not so sure. I would hope that it won't be spun as a "big bad evil EU forcing us to do something we don't want to" line because that just feeds the anti-eu mongers. I've no doubt that the next target of the anti-everything brigade could well be the EU. The massive level of disinformation posted about the EU in the last couple of referendums only being matched by the level of disinformation on Irish Water. And they correlated. The likes of Ming Flanagan who campaigned to destroy raised bogs (an EU directive) would align himself with the IW protests (as he pays water charges in Belgium).

That said it's a sad reflection that again the EU may have to intervene to make us do the right thing in something any reasonable country would have solved domestically (a bit like equal pay, the environment etc).

Godge

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Surely some in FG must be thinking of Ned Stark in Game of Thrones. "The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword", i.e. if FF want water charges gone, then they should be the ones to do it.

Ned Stark didn't last too long with that approach to things.

Godge

micosoft wrote: »

Well there seems to be an odd idea that Irish Water is off the agenda permanently with this deal. Taking water charges off the table is simply pushing the problem down the line and not particularly far either. When the EU starts to fine us in a years time and major problems arise with the Dublin water supply in particular this will become a massive topic again. Varadkar wants to be able to say in two years time "I told you so". It could be a clever move if the electorate feel they were sold a pup by FF and others.

If the independent commission concludes that a national utility of some kind and metered charges of some variety are the way to go (and it is difficult to see how they can conclude otherwise), then Leo will be able to say "I told you so".

Chips Lovell

More trying to keep one foot inside the tent and one out from Varadkar:

Sources disclosed that Minister for Finance Michael Noonan was drafted in to deal with Mr Halligan because Minster for Health Leo Varadkar was uncomfortable with the nature of some of Mr Halligan’s request.

Mr Varadkar has previously expressed unease about doing constituency deals with health services, although Mr Halligan has insisted his requests will benefit the entire south east region.

K-9

In fairness that was interference in his own patch, can't blame him on that one.
Seens Enda is keeping him in health, the longer he is there the harder it will be to blame previous ministers.

Mr.Nice Guy

captainspeed wrote: »

Hopefully the EU will put them back in their box in relation to water charges. My understanding of the EU's WFD is that we have to have metered charges - as in we can't just get rid of them because it suits the political agenda.

The past week has shown that 'new' FF is exactly the same as the old FF, and also just how lucky we should consider ourselves to be in having so much EU oversight, because we're utterly incapable of Governing ourselves.

I'm so glad we have the EU fiscal compact because otherwise spending would be gone off the rails now in an attempt to buy the electorate with all kinds of vanity and populist projects.

I don't know what I find more nauseous, this post advocating the EU override the wishes of the majority of Irish people, or the four people that thanked it.