Holyrood and Welsh Assembly Elections

An Ciarraioch

Along with the London mayoral race, the Scottish and Welsh votes this Thursday are the first electoral test of Corbyn as Labour leader. The SNP are currently on course for an overall majority, with Scottish Labour currently neck-and-neck with the Scottish Tories. It seems Sturgeon has successfully cast the Nats as a social democratic party, with Labour now viewed as "left unionists", and the Greens are also gaining as pro-independence opposition. The Lib Dems are slowly recovering from near obliteration, and UKIP may or may not win one seat.This excellent tool converts polls into seat predictions:

http://vote.cutbot.net/

Meanwhile, in contrast, Welsh Labour remains in rude health and is poised to maintain its firm grip on the First Minister's office since the introduction of devolution. Nevertheless, it seems they will fall short of an overall majority, so would form a coalition with either the Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru, both of whom have been minority partners before. Perhaps most surprising is the strong UKIP support levels, at about 14%, which would win the party 9 Assembly seats.

BoJack Horseman

Yeah, the Nats will sweep north of the border.
I think on the day Labour will probably remain just ahead of the Tories in the battle to be the main opposition party.

The rise of UKIP in Wales is interesting, but like always, they are bedeviled by their less than stellar candidates.

Khan romping home in London will be enough to keep too much heat of Jezza.

A Dub in Glasgo

The election on Thursday is a first in our household, my 17 year old son will be voting for the first time. That is 3 votes for the SNP in the constituency and the list

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The election on Thursday is a first in our household, my 17 year old son will be voting for the first time. That is 3 votes for the SNP in the constituency and the list

Did he have a choice

An Ciarraioch

Surprisingly, looks like the SNP won't get a majority - after 115 seats:

SNP 60
Con 25
Lab 20
Green 6
Lib Dem 4

An Ciarraioch

Wales, after 51 seats:

Labour 26
Plaid Cymru 10
Tories 9
UKIP 5
Lib Dem 1

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Surprisingly, looks like the SNP won't get a majority - after 115 seats:

SNP 60
Con 25
Lab 20
Green 6
Lib Dem 4

Not really a surprise considering the voting system is designed to make overall majorities more difficult. It just shows that 2011 was the anamoly

A Dub in Glasgo

Final seats in Scotland, most likely will be a minority Government with an arrangement with the Greens. The SNP needed 65 for an overall majority

SNP - 63
Tory - 31
Labour - 24
Green - 6
LD -5

An Ciarraioch

Welsh Lib Dems likely to be saved from irrelevance by a coalition with Labour:

Labour 29
Plaid Cymru 12
Conservatives 11
UKIP 7
Lib Dem 1

L1011

Neil Hamilton elected for UKIP in Wales. Neil Hamilton for jaysus sake!

Proof that list systems are terrible ideas in reality despite seeming nice.

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

This excellent tool converts polls into seat predictions:

http://vote.cutbot.net/

Must be a flawed tool as I put in the actual results and it gives different results to actually what happened

Benny_Cake

It's surprising to see the Tories doing (relatively) well in Scotland. Ruth Davidson does come across well so is she the main factor or is it a case of the Tories sweeping up the pro-union vote?

A Dub in Glasgo

Benny_Cake wrote: »

It's surprising to see the Tories doing (relatively) well in Scotland. Ruth Davidson does come across well so is she the main factor or is it a case of the Tories sweeping up the pro-union vote?

A bit of both, Davidson had some good PR and is articulate and is the darling of the Unionist press. Essentially she hoovered up the Labour Unionist vote. It looks as if Scotland is now coalescing around a Nationalist v Unionist stand off

Definitely begs the question of 'What Labour are for?'