Is it time to ban weather forecasts?

thisonetaken

Was really looking forward to the heatwave this weekend. I open the curtains today and it is lashing rain and cold. So sick of how often these forecasters get it badly wrong.

The weather can only be accurately predicted for the next 12 hours, trying to predict anything further out is completely pointless, yet rte spend millions of taxpayers money doing so every year, about time this farce was put to an end!

PARlance

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/728797975141601280

The Backwards Man

Weather forecasting is simply tea leaf reading for people that drink coffee.


Spend enough time doing it and you'll guess right as often as wrong.

osarusan

What I hate about weather forecasts is how they spend the first half of them telling us what kind of day we had.

"Today was bright with sunny spells across most of the country, but occasional showers in the south east, with temperatures rising to 15 degrees in places."

We know! That's not a forecast! It's a....backcast....hindcast...whatever, we don't need it.

The Backwards Man

PARlance wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/728797975141601280

It's raining here since before that was tweeted, and you can't get any more north than that.

Arsemageddon

Sure isn't it God above that makes the weather.

If ye bloody heathens went to mass or lit a few candles it would be lovely out today.

Cienciano

thisonetaken wrote: »

Was really looking forward to the heatwave this weekend. I open the curtains today and it is lashing rain and cold. So sick of how often these forecasters get it badly wrong.

The weather can only be accurately predicted for the next 12 hours, trying to predict anything further out is completely pointless, yet rte spend millions of taxpayers money doing so every year, about time this farce was put to an end!

I checked met.ie on Tuesday evening, they got it spot on for the week.

thisonetaken

PARlance wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/728797975141601280

All week they had been saying we were in for a heatwave with temps in the 20s, then today they look out the window and say o yeah it's raining and send out a tweet. Proves my point.

Alf Stewart.

When it comes to weather forecasts, there's only the one bloke I can stand, and that's Ollie Williams.

Short, just skips the drama and gets to the bloody point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeUrIA64ZOI

DontThankMe

No OP the weather forecast shouldn't be banned, how would i know if it is safe to hang out my clothes on the washing line without the weather forecast.

wicklowwonder

In fairness after the 6 o clock news on RTE1 they predicted just this. Improves tomorrow with sunny spells but heavy showers.

PARlance

thisonetaken wrote: »

All week they had been saying we were in for a heatwave with temps in the 20s, then today they look out the window and say o yeah it's raining and send out a tweet. Proves my point.

They had someone on radio on Thursday saying that people/media were getting a bit carried away. It'll be nice but not a heatwave was the jist.

WesternZulu

Rain was actually forecast for this morning so you can't say they got it wrong.

thisonetaken

PARlance wrote: »

They had someone on radio on Thursday saying that people/media were getting a bit carried away. It'll be nice but not a heatwave was the jist.

But it ain't nice

Alf Stewart.

thisonetaken wrote: »

But it ain't nice

That's subjective.

Might be a welcome change to a Saudi Goat herder for example.

PARlance

thisonetaken wrote: »

But it ain't nice

Give her time Sunny.
Very nice here, in the West.

Alf Stewart.

Alf Stewart. wrote: »

That's subjective.

Yep. I don't like hot weather. Even temperatures in the late teens make me feel uncomfortable. I'm lying in bed listening to the rain and it's lovely.

appledrop

In fairness they have been saying all week that today would be bad but good weather woukd come Sun, Mon + Tues.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

I'm on my holidays and it's 36 degrees if it makes ya feel better lads.

donkeyoaty0099

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I'm on my holidays and it's 36 degrees if it makes ya feel better lads.

It makes me feel pretty good!

mrcheez

thisonetaken wrote: »

Was really looking forward to the heatwave this weekend. I open the curtains today and it is lashing rain and cold. So sick of how often these forecasters get it badly wrong.

The weather can only be accurately predicted for the next 12 hours, trying to predict anything further out is completely pointless, yet rte spend millions of taxpayers money doing so every year, about time this farce was put to an end!

They predicted the heavy rain today a few days ago. Saturday is the storm, Sunday is the heatwave.

ShiddyArze

What is more annoying is people throwing around the word heatwave..

"Heatwave this Sunday/Monday,"

A heat wave is an extended period of above average temperatures, about 5 days

Cienciano

We need to ban people who don't understand weather forecasts moaning about the weather forecast.
I know people who laugh when the met office predict scattered showers, as if they're somehow covering themselves for every type of weather. As if a day can only be fully wet or dry, the idea that it can be mostly dry with the odd shower is too difficult to comprehend.

Westernyelp

thisonetaken wrote: »

All week they had been saying we were in for a heatwave with temps in the 20s, then today they look out the window and say o yeah it's raining and send out a tweet. Proves my point.

it was forecast for Sunday (maybe) Monday and Tuesday

SuperGrover

A lot of people seem to glance at a headline, then extrapolate their own forecast, then blame Met Eireann when they haven't actually read the forecast that is easily available to read.

It's like every winter - "snow on the way". But when I check, there "may be some snow on high ground in the north-west".

I was mapping out my weekend a few days ago and knew there was rain due in the east from the early hours of this morning.

But, yeah, ban weather forecasts.

biko

I don't thing banning is the way to go, and I'm an evil moderator!

The Randy Riverbeast

Is this winter going to be the coldest in record yet?

The forcasts are fine, it's idiots who exaggerate are the problem.

everlast75

do away with M.E.T. Eireann.

sunny spells and scattered showers is our weather forecast every single day. they may say it in a different way, but listen hard and you'll see that's basically what they forecast every day.

in this country you need to bring a brolly with you regardless.

Maireadio

thisonetaken wrote: »

Was really looking forward to the heatwave this weekend. I open the curtains today and it is lashing rain and cold. So sick of how often these forecasters get it badly wrong.

Saturday has been promised rainy by the Met Office and other weather sources for most of the week. I know this because my fella is golfing today for the first time in ages and I told him it would be rainy days ago. The rest of the weekend and early next week is forecast to be better.

I'm guessing you read a clickbaity headline in a paper at the start of the week and went with that, never thinking to check the forecast in the intervening time?

Capt'n Midnight

The continued dumbing down of higher level mathematics in state exams is to blame for this.

With a numerate population versed in the statistical art the metrological services would be able to present the uncertainty of our climate in a rigorously valid format vis a vis "we are 90% certain that there is an 85% chance that the average precipitation in the greater Dublin area would exceed 0.1mm/hr averaged over a period not exceeding 12 hours"

onmebike

thisonetaken wrote: »

Was really looking forward to the heatwave this weekend. I open the curtains today and it is lashing rain and cold. So sick of how often these forecasters get it badly wrong.

"These forecasters"? Do you mean article writers in the indo or actual forecasters from Met Éireann? The latter got it right, the former got people talking about their headlines (just like they wanted).

That said, the weather will be better after today (as forecast). Rain won't be totally absent though.

Maireadio

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Weather forecasting is simply tea leaf reading for people that drink coffee.


Spend enough time doing it and you'll guess right as often as wrong.

They're right most of the time actually, if people actually paid attention. People just remember the odd time they get it wrong. It's not an exact science and I think the forecasters do very well to intrepret the data.

The Backwards Man wrote: »

It's raining here since before that was tweeted, and you can't get any more north than that.

Like I said, I've known Saturday was going to be rainy since about Wednesday due to reading and watching things with my eyeballs and listening with my ears.

Maireadio

thisonetaken wrote: »

All week they had been saying we were in for a heatwave with temps in the 20s, then today they look out the window and say o yeah it's raining and send out a tweet. Proves my point.

Newspapers said that. On Monday. Did you actually watch any forecasts this week?

NiallBoo

Met Eireann said it was going to piss today.

T'was the meedja that said we were having a "heatwave".

Harry Palmr

I think a lot of people watch the BBC forecast and see London 25C and think Dublin will magically get the same.

Spanish Eyes

Umbrella, jacket with a hood, gloves, thermal underwear,

Sunscreen, sun hat/visor, sunglasses, water.

All required for day out in Ireland. The visitors know it, we just read the meeja.

Met Eireann forecast heavy rain for this morning. I think they more often than not get it right for a day or two anyway.

Anyway, the horrible cold has gone, that's good.

uck51js9zml2yt

Have had torrential rains since leaving tralee 2 hours ago ,heading to Dublin.
I don't know what was worse, not being able to see out my window or the hoards of first communion kids and parents crossing the road in Newcastle west and holding up traffic after Mass.

Spanish Eyes

Zavier Important Track-and-field wrote: »

Have had torrential rains since leaving tralee 2 hours ago ,heading to Dublin.
I don't know what was worse, not being able to see out my window or the hoards of first communion kids and parents crossing the road in Newcastle west and holding up traffic after Mass.

Rathkeale would have been interesting too on First Communion Day!

murpho999

thisonetaken wrote: »

All week they had been saying we were in for a heatwave with temps in the 20s, then today they look out the window and say o yeah it's raining and send out a tweet. Proves my point.

No they haven't.

It's the other media outlets such as The Journal , Indo and even the Irish Times interpreting the information wrongly and running stories of a heatwave of 18 degrees and scorching weather and 'summer at last' even though it's still Springtime.

Watched Met Eireann forecasts on RTE all week and they have been very accurate.

mrcheez

I know people love to complain about the weather here, but seriously it's the price you pay for living on a island on the edge of the 2nd-largest body of water on the planet.

The climate we have keeps us from freezing our asses off in winter as other locations on the same latitude do (e.g. Berlin, Kiev, northern Canada): http://s1107.photobucket.com/user/Beardsley_Klamm/media/europe_usjuxv2.jpg.html

I guess we can be thankful we have relatively cheap flights to escape it, but I'll put up with some bad summer days for the sake of having a relatively mild winter.

Discodog

I rely on accurate forecasts & I don't bother with Met Eirann. It's a sad state of affairs when yr.no (the Norwegian weather service) provide a more detailed & accurate forecast. On the TV Sky News are much better.

The only really useful thing from ME is the rain radar. I didn't just know that it would rain, I knew exactly when it would start & I will know when it will end.

murpho999

Discodog wrote: »

I rely on accurate forecasts & I don't bother with Met Eirann. It's a sad state of affairs when yr.no (the Norwegian weather service) provide a more detailed & accurate forecast. On the TV Sky News are much better.

The only really useful thing from ME is the rain radar. I didn't just know that it would rain, I knew exactly when it would start & I will know when it will end.

This is really unfair on ME.

Also, find Sky News weather pretty bad as they hardly cover Ireland and focus on UK only.

Samaris

Where I'm living you can predict the weather pretty damned accurately a week in advance.

All through the week when you're in work, it will be glorious (albeit with intermittent hail). As soon as Saturday hits, the rain will start.

Your Face

No.

bur

forecast.io was pretty bang on.

cbyrd

It's not the forecasters that get it wrong it's the media blowing everything out of proportion.. as usual.

Discodog

murpho999 wrote: »

This is really unfair on ME.

Also, find Sky News weather pretty bad as they hardly cover Ireland and focus on UK only.

It may seem unfair but it's true. In 10 seconds Sky News told me when it would start raining here. That's what most people want. ME will of said something like rain spreading North West. Sky's graphic showed how the rain would move across the country together with times.

This simple graphic tells anyone when it will rain & when it will stop.

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall

Compare the accuracy with ME's version:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

The ME one is a computer guess. The meteo one looks at the actual radar.

murpho999

Discodog wrote: »

It may seem unfair but it's true. In 10 seconds Sky News told me when it would start raining here. That's what most people want. ME will of said something like rain spreading North West. Sky's graphic showed how the rain would move across the country together with times.

This simple graphic tells anyone when it will rain & when it will stop.

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall

Compare the accuracy with ME's version:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

The ME one is a computer guess. The meteo one looks at the actual radar.

I don't know what you are basing that on. They both look the same to me.

Sometimes Irish people like to criticise Irish things for the sake of it.

ME is not a bunch of amateurs making computer guesses you know.

Discodog

murpho999 wrote: »

I don't know what you are basing that on. They both look the same to me.

Sometimes Irish people like to criticise Irish things for the sake of it.

ME is not a bunch of amateurs making computer guesses you know.

One is a series of blobs based on what a computer thinks will happen. The second is the actual rainfall. ME, like every other forecaster, rely on computer models. Sites like this just make the data easy to understand.

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Connacht/Galway/hour_by_hour.html

Discodog

bur wrote: »

forecast.io was pretty bang on.

Yes because it monitor the actual rain via the radar. For those with Android phones the Arcus app is staggeringly accurate concerning when it will rain in the short term. For example a typical Arcus message might be Rain starting in 40 mins stopping 15 mins later.

Cienciano

Discodog wrote: »

It may seem unfair but it's true. In 10 seconds Sky News told me when it would start raining here. That's what most people want. ME will of said something like rain spreading North West. Sky's graphic showed how the rain would move across the country together with times.

This simple graphic tells anyone when it will rain & when it will stop.

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall

Compare the accuracy with ME's version:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

The ME one is a computer guess. The meteo one looks at the actual radar.

Use this:
http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp
I use met.ie every day, its bang on.