Buy now or wait for sanity to return to the market?

Walter H Price

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Or maybe you're not 'professional' enough.

Ask yourself when are they going to be building anymore houses below 300k in these areas and that will give you your answer as to when you can afford to live in your chosen locations

At earning almost €90K combined I'm confident were professional enough both of us have permanent pensionable jobs in good industries, with rent and savings combined we're were comfortably managing €3,250 a month. been approved in principle for decent mortgage amounts have a solid deposit and additional cash available from the folks.

The issue is there's no value , driven by the lack of supply second had houses are over priced for what your buying , i would expect in the next 18 months to two years building will increase and prices will come down again , we've a mini property bubble in Dublin again now caused by the scarcity of supply, not interested in social housing at all we need to see an increase in the number of private developments to drive real change in the market.

It's already happening in Swords now new developments in Millers Glen are bringing prices back down a bit in the areas around Glen Ellen and Swords Manor. That's why were holding on for now.

Barely Hedged

Walter H Price wrote: »

At earning almost €90K combined I'm confident were professional enough both of us have permanent pensionable jobs in good industries, with rent and savings combined we're were comfortably managing €3,250 a month. been approved in principle for decent mortgage amounts have a solid deposit and additional cash available from the folks.

The issue is there's no value , driven by the lack of supply second had houses are over priced for what your buying , i would expect in the next 18 months to two years building will increase and prices will come down again , we've a mini property bubble in Dublin again now caused by the scarcity of supply, not interested in social housing at all we need to see an increase in the number of private developments to drive real change in the market.

It's already happening in Swords now new developments in Millers Glen are bringing prices back down a bit in the areas around Glen Ellen and Swords Manor. That's why were holding on for now.

Fair enough, but how much do you expect the price to come down to in 2 years on a house for example you'd buy now?

The reduction you highlight in Swords is asking prices being reduced, not selling prices. Very dangerous territory basing a large part of your opinion on asking price reductions

Walter H Price

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Fair enough, but how much do you expect the price to come down to in 2 years on a house for example you'd buy now?

The reduction you highlight in Swords is asking prices being reduced, not selling prices. Very dangerous territory basing a large part of your opinion on asking price reductions

Don't think we get as lucky as people who managed to buy in 09/10 prices when the market collapsed altogether , the reason were holding off is two fold second hand homes are overpriced again that's clear from talking to the mortgage broker and financial adviser , so I'm not keen on buying something i know is currently artificially overpriced.

The other thing is with building starting again id be tempted to hold off see where thees new developments go up and look at buying new. Weather it will take a year , two years or longer prices will eventually drop and new homes will be available. We've a nice apartment affordable rent and the Landlord is family so guaranteed to have the place as long as we want it for the same rent. 2 more years saving will get our deposit wen we do look to buy in 2018 well north of €50K and if salary's increase at all in that time we could afford a much nicer place , so no risk to holing on from how im seeing it.

athtrasna

Can we get back to discussing the topic without making it personal to any one poster please. Thanks

Mod

witchgirl26

Walter H Price wrote: »

Not sure how thats self denial , we could easily afford a house in somewhere like Finglas , Clondalkin , Ballymun , Darndale , Coolock , Tallaght etc... now but we've absolutely no interest in living somewhere like that, neither of us are working class , were both professionals and are currently earning two decent salary's.

Similarly were not looking for a 3 bed in D4 , Malahide , Portmarnock or Howth and complaining about prices.

We've been looking in areas like Swords , Castleknock ,Santry , The Navan Road , Aishington , Ashtown etc... and there's no doubt the houses in theses areas and others are overvalued now again and as soon as new building starts up prices will fall , that's why were waiting.

I don't understand this attitude at all. Both myself and my partner are professionals earning very decent wages & we live in Tallaght. Neither of us grew up here but we rented for a while & found it worked for us for commutes etc. The whole of one place is not the same as some sections - where we live would be quite middle class to be honest.

I think people do themselves a complete disservice these days when they rule out entire areas because of an impression.

In terms of the overall question of the thread - I think as long as you stick to what you think is a reasonable amount to pay for a house & is within your budget, does it really matter when you buy? If you're looking to only stay a couple of years in a place & turn a profit at the end, then yes I think you need to look at it more closely but if you're planning to stay there for the mid-long term, then why should it matter if you think the house is worth what you're spending?

Negative equity only becomes an issue if you're trying to sell - not if you're just living there & enjoying your home.

screamer

Lots of people thought they'd wait it out in the recession too to get bottom of the barrell prices.. and they waited and waited and are now paying huge rents.......I don't see urban areas improving any time soon. Lots of jobs lots of inward migration lots of demand for houses and not enough supply. Believe it or not there arent huge profits in house building and there's really no incentive for developers to churn out houses.

Jet Black

witchgirl26 wrote: »

I think people do themselves a complete disservice these days when they rule out entire areas because of an impression.

This is what I was hoping for when I was looking for my home. I was thinking that I would be able to get something cheap because people think these areas are bad. I couldn't have been more wrong. The open viewings were packed and I was constantly outbid. I grew up in these 'bad areas' and I know 99.9% of them are fine.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Effects

andekwarhola wrote: »

People always talk about 'sanity returning to housing markets' as if there's some guaranteed magical time in the future that we'll all be able to buy cheap houses in a handful of desirable Dublin postcodes.

It's called a recession. The bubble will burst again, that's the time. It's just slightly hard to predict when, but it is guaranteed.
You sound like you're living in 2007.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Ush1

witchgirl26 wrote: »

I don't understand this attitude at all. Both myself and my partner are professionals earning very decent wages & we live in Tallaght. Neither of us grew up here but we rented for a while & found it worked for us for commutes etc. The whole of one place is not the same as some sections - where we live would be quite middle class to be honest.

I think people do themselves a complete disservice these days when they rule out entire areas because of an impression.

In terms of the overall question of the thread - I think as long as you stick to what you think is a reasonable amount to pay for a house & is within your budget, does it really matter when you buy? If you're looking to only stay a couple of years in a place & turn a profit at the end, then yes I think you need to look at it more closely but if you're planning to stay there for the mid-long term, then why should it matter if you think the house is worth what you're spending?

Negative equity only becomes an issue if you're trying to sell - not if you're just living there & enjoying your home.

Wish I could thank your post twice. I'm so glad Tallaght has the name it has because I was able to buy a house near the area I grew up in at a great price, and the community is fantastic.

People really don't get the size and demographics of many areas, Tallaght in particular.

Michael D Not Higgins

I'm not sure where 43k comes from, the CSO's figures have it at 36-37k.

sbsquarepants

Sorry I was looking at 3rd quarter results from last year. 4th quarter actually goes up 3.8% so just under 45k


Table 1 Average weekly earnings by economic sector and other characteristics and quarter¹


B-E Industry 815.41 811.49 823.92 831.95 856.82 832.22 864.09 +31.87 +3.8 +7.27 +0.8


Table won't copy too well for me but the bolded part is average weekly earnings for the 4 quarters of 2015. I took that from the CSO website.

Michael D Not Higgins

Ah, I'm talking about average overall which is ~37k. Industry only makes up 8% of the numbers.

I also don't particularly like averages as the medians are lower, also the household figures are much less than double the individual figures. All in all, 90k is a sizeable household income and would put them into the top 20% in the country.

Edit: It should also allow borrowing of up to 315k and house prices around 350k with the minimum deposit required for first time buyers. This is the real problem, the high earners can only afford an average priced house.

Idbatterim

if you look at how many are ready to buy now or will be shortly. Even if the **** hit the fan again, it may be slightly different this time, in that there are a lot of people waiting to make the jump, that wasnt the case last time round...

I reckon a lot of people wont need a second invitation if the the crap hits the fan again and they get a second bite of the apple. Of course you then need to be in a position to take advantage...

I live near churchtown, that hazlebrook square and also norte dame girl schools on churchtown road (about to be developed) they are the last sites of any sort of size in churchtown left to be developed as far as I know...


http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/best-laid-plans-for-south-dublin-1.2125681

Developer Michael Cotter’s Wentypark is applying for planning permission for 269 units at the Notre Dames Des Missions site on Churchtown Road Upper, just minutes from Dundrum Village and Luas stop. Cotter’s Park Developments constructed some of Dublin’s best residential developments, such as the award- winning Mount Saint Anne’s in nearby Milltown.
The long-awaited Churchtown development will take place on one of the best-located undeveloped sites in south Dublin, extending to approximately 6.6 acres in total.
The proposed development would include 50 one-bed, 160 two-bed and 57 three-bed apartments. An existing house on the site, Fernbank House, would be refurbished and converted to a family home. As at Mount Saint Anne’s, O’Mahony Pike architects have designed the scheme and, in addition to the 269 residential units, the proposed development includes a creche, 403 car parking spaces and nearly 2.5 acres of gardens. Park Developments purchased the site in 2004 for a reported €30 million, having outbid their competition.

Irish_rat

I don't believe prices will reduce at all. We saw the bottom in 2010/2011 and the country was in a bad place at that time.

If folk are waiting for the next recession(because that's the only way we might see a drop) they'll be waiting a very long time. And even at that well never see the chaos that happened in 08 again.

Unemployment is dropping, the economy is still growing and the demand is outstripping supply. All good factors that tend to say prices will continue to rise. There is greed out there again though and we could have cardboard houses going up ala Celtic Tiger repeated

bear_killer

Irish_rat wrote: »

I don't believe prices will reduce at all. We saw the bottom in 2010/2011 and the country was in a bad place at that time.

If folk are waiting for the next recession(because that's the only way we might see a drop) they'll be waiting a very long time. And even at that well never see the chaos that happened in 08 again.

Unemployment is dropping, the economy is still growing and the demand is outstripping supply. All good factors that tend to say prices will continue to rise. There is greed out there again though and we could have cardboard houses going up ala Celtic Tiger repeated

the bottom in dublin was spring of 2012 , the rebound was very quick over the following eighteen months but thats because the market overshot the downside to an irrational degree , this nearly always results in a sharp rebound in any asset class , beit the equities crash in 2008 - 2009 or the property market crash in ireland from 2007 - 2012

a crash like the last one is very unlikely to happen again , we are in the midst of the worst international economic crisis in several generations , everything that could go wrong did

having said all that , i believe the property market will only continue to rise strongly in dublin , galway is too expensive today for what it is a very small city in a part of the country where hardly anyone lives , limerick is cheap but the economy there is very weak , cork again is very expensive though not as expensive as galway when you look at difference in size , the rest of the country is no better off economically than it was three or four years ago , the biggest feature this past number of years is the widening gap between dublin and the rest of the country in terms of economic importance , arguably the property bubble which happened outside dublin during the boom was more insane than in the capital as there was no rationale whatsoever for it , i live in rural ireland and see the evidence of this with regards the market for farm land , farm land was often going for twenty grand per acre ten years ago , today its going for around seven , bar agriculture , rural ireland has no real economy , it has tourism but tourists dont buy houses

dublin to keep going up in price regardless of what pace that continues at

Idbatterim

having said all that , i believe the property market will only continue to rise strongly in dublin

can it rise strongly though with the current mortgage criteria? which I totally agree with, the only ones who benefit from rip off prices are the banks, property owners and vested interests like media, estate agents etc...

I don't believe prices will reduce at all.

even if they do marginally in the short term, what does some mickey mouse reduction like 1% make in the scheme of things, if you are holding off to buy and paying current market rents...

I think it may be ridiculous to say that they wont take a serious tumble again in the future, but to take a SERIOUS tumble is a big if and no doubt there will be more booms and busts, but how long may it take, assuming the central bank are going to keep a total lid on things and all of these new rent caps etc...

Irish_rat

bear_killer wrote: »

galway is too expensive today for what it is a very small city in a part of the country where hardly anyone lives , limerick is cheap but the economy there is very weak , cork again is very expensive though not as expensive as galway when you look at difference in size

I live in Limerick and while the economy is nowhere big as Cork and Galway, it's definitely growing very fast at the minute. I will also say the selection of 2nd hand semi detached houses in good areas is limited. The best option for most people is 5/6 new estates being built out in Castletroy.

But it is more affordable . New semi-d builds for 215k is a good price. I was happy enough with that myself.

El_Dangeroso

bear_killer wrote: »

galway is too expensive today for what it is a very small city in a part of the country where hardly anyone lives

I agree that I would wish for Galway to be less expensive but there are several reasons for the high prices.

1. We had no ghost estates built anywhere near the city or suburbs. So starting out in the recession with no spare capacity.
2. The city has several challenging features of it's geography, sea to the south, lough Corrib to the north, split by a river with only three crossings. This all limits development. Then the gaelteacht to the west with very strict planning laws.
3. Brutal traffic meaning less people willing to commute from towns surrounding (most congested city in Ireland per capita), a commute from 5km outside the east of the city to the west can take over an hour each way at peak.
4. Large student population that need to live in the city due to aforemention transport issues
5. Thriving tourist industry with high demand for airbnb type rentals.

So don't see prices coming down here anytime soon.

Villa05

The market did not overshoot on the way down. Slightly below fair value in my opinion. It was prevented from overshooting by NAMA and an incredible reluctance by state owned banks to reposses on completely underwater mortgages. This is all part of the process of repairing bank balance sheets. The housing crisis is collateral damage of this government policy

Prices are rising irrationally in Dublin due to lack of supply, this means price is dictated by the top earners in the country and large multinational funds with access to 0 cost finance

Dublin and some other markets are firmly in a bubble and again it is created by our own government. I'm sure they will find some bogey man to blame it on when it bursts again

The housing crisis is easily fixable, it's just that the will to do it is what's missing

Idbatterim

The housing crisis is easily fixable, it's just that the will to do it is what's missing

I totally Villa05, particularly with this post! We arent looking to the answer for the meaning of life. What is it about the morons in governmet and planning etc here, that year in and year out the same issues are discussed ad nauseam and nothing changes, it is said pay peanuts and get monkeys, well these monkeys sure as hell arent getting paid peanuts.

There is more at stake here, they wont provide dublin with a proper transport system, which is a massive step in solving housing crisis.

the insane height caps across the city, which is totally unsustainable and totally irrational...

Eugene Norman

Irish_rat wrote: »

I don't believe prices will reduce at all. We saw the bottom in 2010/2011 and the country was in a bad place at that time.

If folk are waiting for the next recession(because that's the only way we might see a drop) they'll be waiting a very long time. And even at that well never see the chaos that happened in 08 again.

Unemployment is dropping, the economy is still growing and the demand is outstripping supply. All good factors that tend to say prices will continue to rise. There is greed out there again though and we could have cardboard houses going up ala Celtic Tiger repeated

Ireland is bucking the European trend (in fact if Europe were growing Ireland would be f*cked as interest rates would rise).

I don't see this continuing at all. The whole world economy is too fragile.

Eugene Norman

Idbatterim wrote: »

I totally Villa05, particularyly with this post! We arent looking to the answer for the meaning of life. What is it about the morons in governmet and planning etc here, that year in and year out the same issues are discussed ad nauseam and nothing changes, it is said pay peanuts and get monkeys, well these monkeys sure as hell arent getting paid peanuts.

There is more at stake here, they wont provide dublin with a proper transport system, which is a massive step in solving housing crisis.

the insane height caps across the city, which is totally unsustainable and totally irrational...

I think the new government will do something. Even promising houses would cool the market.

psheaser

Prices in areas such as Clondalkin and Tallaght have actually been decreasing for months on end.

Albeit some parts are not very desirable but there is some lovely estates there and bargains can be had.

Another factor that hasn't been mentioned is the review of our corporate tax bracket that is due for review in November, any raise to that and you may kiss the multi nationals goodbye along with thousands of " professional " jobs.

psheaser

Irish rat how much does the green that you're smoking sell for in your area ?

Idbatterim

I think the new government will do something. Even promising houses would cool the market.

The lead time is quite long though, I hear about the 6.75 billion that these inept idiots have for spending increases between now and circa 2020!

Major amounts also need to be made available for infrastructure to allow more housing be built, water, sewage, roads, power etc!

these idiots might want to hold back a good amount for this, before throwing the cash around like confetti on public servants and welfare increases again :mad::rolleyes:

athtrasna

Psheaser please familiarise yourself with our charter before posting again in this forum. Mod

Nika Bolokov

Buy a place when your ready to settle down and live in the place for 10 years plus that you can afford under various stressed scenarios.

All of this talk of trying to time the housing cycle like the stock market or buy at the 'right' time then becomes irrelevant and not worth worrying about. You'll have a home nobody can throw you out of which is worth a lot when you have a family.

A lot of posters would have parents who bought houses in the 80's when the country was an absolute basket case and interest rates were over 10%. Mortgage lending was strict and infrastructure was even more crap than today. I wonder did they ever worry about market timing..... No they just needed a home for their family so they scrimped and saved and bought one and didn't try to make an imaginary profit on it.

In 2011 people were saying houses were overvalued and there was further to go etc mad to buy etc..... You can't ever know.

Eugene Norman

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

Buy a place when your ready to settle down and live in the place for 10 years plus that you can afford under various stressed scenarios.

All of this talk of trying to time the housing cycle like the stock market or buy at the 'right' time then becomes irrelevant and not worth worrying about. You'll have a home nobody can throw you out of which is worth a lot when you have a family.

A lot of posters would have parents who bought houses in the 80's when the country was an absolute basket case and interest rates were over 10%. Mortgage lending was strict and infrastructure was even more crap than today. I wonder did they ever worry about market timing..... No they just needed a home for their family so they scrimped and saved and bought one and didn't try to make an imaginary profit on it.

In 2011 people were saying houses were overvalued and there was further to go etc mad to buy etc..... You can't ever know.

Nobody's concerned about profit but buying a reasonable house at a reasonable price. In the 80's prices stagnated. It wasn't an issue. There was no panic.

Irelands housing market is a mess. Massive downturns and upturns.