Euro 2016

Rayne Wooney

Usually the top scorer only needs 3 or 4 goals

Have to fancy a fair few to get that, Zlatan (welp), Ronnie, Muller, Martial, Morata, Lewa all decent shouts

What happens if there's 3 or 4 level at the top?

Deise_2012

The odds are divided by the amount of players level on goals. I remember I backed Villa in 2010 and there were a few level with him...Forlan and Muller and maybe someone else. If Villa's odds were 12/1... I would have got paid at 4/1 or 3/1

Dio On The Doubles

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

Usually the top scorer only needs 3 or 4 goals

Have to fancy a fair few to get that, Zlatan (welp), Ronnie, Muller, Martial, Morata, Lewa all decent shouts

What happens if there's 3 or 4 level at the top?

Think that depends on each bookies own dead heat rules.

I'm looking at Morata top scorer for a potential punt too but usually I like to go for outsider odds and put an ew on it.

DB74

Here's my thoughts on Top Goalscorer, for what it's worth

When looking at this market I prefer to concentrate on players who are on teams which I believe will reach the quarter-final at least. If we go back and look at all 11 tournaments (WC & Euro) since World Cup 1994, only twice has the winner of this award not made it to the Quarter-finals:

1. WC 1994 when Oleg Salenko scored 5 goals in one game to finish jt-top with Hristo Stoichkov and

2. EURO2012 when the award was split 4 ways with 4 players scoring 3 goals.

I'm prepared to treat both of those as anomalies and concentrate on teams likely to reach the quarters at least.

I think personally it would be a major surprise if the 1/4-final line-ups were not something along the following lines

QF1: Switz / Poland vs Spain
QF2: England vs Portugal / Belgium
QF3: Germany vs Italy / Croatia
QF4: France vs any of Russia / Wales / Austria

Another angle I like to look at is International strike-rate as it is rare to find a winner of this award who is not already proven at this level. I prefer to avoid anyone with a SR of less than 30% while anyone above 40% deserves a closer look. You have to bear in mind though that some up-and-coming strikers may not yet have the necessary strike-rate.

I would also tend to have a look at those near the head of the market in case I have missed something above


I think Robert Lewandowski at 16/1 is a absolute stand-out bet for Top Goalscorer. 34 International Goals from 75 Caps is a strike-rate of over 45% which is up there with the best of them. 13 goals in qualifying but more importantly IMO, 4 goals against the other teams finishing in the top 4 in the Group so he's no flat-track bully either. The draw has been relatively kind to Poland too as I expect them to finish 1st or 2nd in their Group which will give them a Last 16 match against either a 3rd-placed team (if they finish 1st) or the 2nd placed team from Group A (France, Albania, Switzerland, Romania) so very little to fear there for them en route to the quarters.

Staying with Poland and if you fancy them to go a bit further than the 1/4ers then I think Arkadiusz Milic at 125/1 is worth a small saver each-way

At the head of the market I think Thomas Muller at 8/1 is also worth a small bet. While I dislike betting the favourites in this type of market, Muller needs no introduction. He obviously loves these tournaments and with a strike-rate of 44.29% (31 goals from 70 caps) and playing with a team expected to go far, I can't leave him out

Cristiano Ronaldo at the same price doesn't tempt me at all. Portugal never perform on the big stage and Ronaldo doesn't have to team mates to provide enough opportunities for him to score enough goals. Maybe he/they will prove me wrong but I'm not prepared to take 8/1 on him.

Others I like for smaller each-way money are

Wayne Rooney at 50/1. Rooney's price seems to be based on his poor club form and some speculation that he may not start ahead of Vardy and Kane. Personally I can't see Hodgson dropping him as he will be crucified in the press if he does so and England go out early. Rooney's International strike-rate of 46.8% is proof of his ability at this level while his 7 qualifying goals against the other (relatively decent) teams in the group shows that he can put his club form behind him when in an England shirt.

Ivan Perisic (Croatia) at 200/1. Croatia are my dark horses for this tournament and I fully expect them to get to the quarters if not further. Perisic was their top scorer in qualifying with 6 goals, 3 against the Top 4 in the Group. His strike rate is lower than I like at 26.7% but at 200/1 I'm prepared to take a shot on him each way. I think he is overlooked because he has been named as a midfielder but he often plays as a second striker for the national team.

Marc Janko (Austria) at 66/1. 26 goals in 51 games for his country gives Janko a superb strike-rate of over 50%. Again the draw has been fairly kind to Austria with Portugal, Iceland, & Hungary standing in their way of a place in the Last 16. Funny enough, runner-up in this group could give an easier Last 16 match as the winners face probably Belgium or Sweden while the runners-up face probably Wales or Russia. Either way, there is nothing for Austria to fear there anyway so they have a great chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

Marko Arnautovic (Austria) at 150/1. Again, as with Milic for Poland above, if you fancy Austria to go far then he is probably worth a little saver at 150/1 each way.

Anyway that's my 2c

mattman_iflaf

Those who want to predict the outcome... and for a good cause to boot !

http://euro.iflaf.com

Dio On The Doubles

Welovebetting.co.uk just published a free 100 page euros betting guide.

It's not on their site yet but they threw the link up on their twitter.

https://en.calameo.com/read/004618841e0b786e1e522

Can be downloaded to the pc in pdf format using the download button in the top right of the page.

Lasagna Diarra

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

Usually the top scorer only needs 3 or 4 goals

Have to fancy a fair few to get that, Zlatan (welp), Ronnie, Muller, Martial, Morata, Lewa all decent shouts

What happens if there's 3 or 4 level at the top?

Martial won't start for us.

markc91

Racing post pull out in thursdays paper.

CriticEyes

markc91 wrote: »

Racing post pull out in thursdays paper.

how do i get a copy? is it in a newspaper?

markc91

Yeah in tomorrows paper

CriticEyes

markc91 wrote: »

Yeah in tomorrows paper

which paper? sorry for the noob questions but i expect to be quiet in work tomorrow and i never buy any newspapers so i wouldn't know which one it comes in. thanks.

tastyt

Gonna go for lukakku as top scorer, saw him at 20/1 and he's banging them in all season and in the recent warm up games, add to that the fact that Belgium should make a good tilt at the tournament and I reckon hel give you a good run for your money ( perhaps helped out by the Irish defence ).

Apart from that I'm gonna have a punt on Spain, kinda coming in unfancied after their disastrous world cup but too many quality players not to bounce back and want to put it right.

Looking at Portugal 's group and ronaldos fondness for really racking up the goals without mercy against the poor sides, he could have the golden boot won in the group stages.

Portugal the dark horse for me

LikeTheseOdds

CriticEyes wrote: »

which paper? sorry for the noob questions but i expect to be quiet in work tomorrow and i never buy any newspapers so i wouldn't know which one it comes in. thanks.

It's in the Racing Post newspaper. It includes a 88 page pullout for the euros today. Costs 3 euro; most newsagents tend to have a couple of copies. For what it's worth I picked it up today and it's fairly detailed once you wade through the various ads for bookies. There's individual team + group write ups, top goalscorer and things like that.

Toobz

Tightest tournament in a long time. England have their best squad and have looked ok pre tournament. Spain have been doing well but if Casillas is in goal for anymore than the first match they may not get far. Even Ireland are in with a shout of drawing their way out of their group.

Onky taking one bet for now which is an extreme Longshot but the man is great for Belgium and pops up with important goals.

Fellaini top scorer ew at 150/1

Also looking at kante for player of the tournament, if France win the tournament he will be well up there.

Austria!

Like the last world cup, Spain are the best squad, but bad management puts them at risk again.

inforfun

Toobz wrote: »

Tightest tournament in a long time. England have their best squad and have looked ok pre tournament. Spain have been doing well but if Casillas is in goal for anymore than the first match they may not get far. Even Ireland are in with a shout of drawing their way out of their group.

Onky taking one bet for now which is an extreme Longshot but the man is great for Belgium and pops up with important goals.

Fellaini top scorer ew at 150/1

Also looking at kante for player of the tournament, if France win the tournament he will be well up there.

He might go on and deserve it but you can be sure the UEFA will pick someone more glamorous.
"Jury" bets... i avoid them like the plague.

stingerro

Euro 2016 preview done by "We Love Betting" is probably on "Racing Post" level and it's actually free.
You can download it here - https://en.calameo.com/read/004618841e0b786e1e522

buckfasterer

I don't think teams have too much to be worried about going by the way this England team is playing. Against 10 men since 30 minutes. Its like watching paint dry.

Rayne Wooney

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Martial won't start for us.

I'm biased after he almost saved United's season!

Who do you fancy for top scorer for France? Griezmann looks very short, Giroud has outscored him in the last 5-6 France games

Shanotheslayer

I've had these bets placed for months now as I figured there would be movement on them closer to the tournament:

France -1.25 1.9 ( Line is now -1.5 at 2.0)
France Win HT 10/11 ( Now 4/5)

Germany win 4/7 ( Now 1/2)
Poland Win 5/6 (Now 4/6)


All Singles. Including a double on Poland/Germany

Shanotheslayer

Lads, has to be value in Sweden Top Goalscorer aside from Ibra? He's 4/9 Fav and 2nd Fav is 10/1. Anyone know much about other goalscorers there?


Thinking a Lay bet on Ibra

Lasagna Diarra

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

I'm biased after he almost saved United's season!

Who do you fancy for top scorer for France? Griezmann looks very short, Giroud has outscored him in the last 5-6 France games

Definitely Giroud as Griezmann will likely play on the wing and he doesn't seem to handle pressure very well. Payet could get a few goals too imo.

inforfun

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Lads, has to be value in Sweden Top Goalscorer aside from Ibra? He's 4/9 Fav and 2nd Fav is 10/1. Anyone know much about other goalscorers there?


Thinking a Lay bet on Ibra

Guidetti.

Austria!

inforfun wrote: »

He might go on and deserve it but you can be sure the UEFA will pick someone more glamorous.
"Jury" bets... i avoid them like the plague.

I love Jury bets.

I've done Gzman payet and iniesta for euros.

Collie D

Austria! wrote: »

I love Jury bets.

I've done Gzman payet and iniesta for euros.

The auld Mikel motm coup for Nigeria v Iran in Brazil

Shanotheslayer

Ibra Over 1.5 goals 6/5 much better value than Sweden TGS.
Griezmann Under 3.5 10/11
Bale Over 1.5 4/5
Guidetti(Thanks to Infor) Sweden TGS. 12/1

CrabieCrawford

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Ibra Over 1.5 goals 6/5 much better value than Sweden TGS.
Griezmann Under 3.5 10/11
Bale Over 1.5 4/5
Guidetti(Thanks to Infor) Sweden TGS. 12/1

What bookies do the over/under market?

Shanotheslayer

CrabieCrawford wrote: »

What bookies do the over/under market?

Sorry, should have stated, BET365.

Only doing:

Bale Over 1.5
Ibra Over 1.5
Griezmann 3.5
Muller 3.5


I didn't take the 3.5 market on muller as I did him TGS E/W in tournament at 7/1 which I feel is better Value

CrabieCrawford

Is Berg not more likely to play alongside Ibra for sweeden? Most of the predicted lineups seem to go for him.

Also from the mangager via skysports:

Hamren said: "I find that it works well with the two [Berg and Guidetti], even if I see Marcus Berg being a little bit ahead at the moment. Marcus was good at the end of the season in Greece and he scored."

Austria!

Is there any site with reliable predicted line ups? Could be some value in top team goalscorer

callaway92

callaway92 wrote: »

Giroud apparently in Deschamps plans to start for France as a partner for Griezmann.

Tipple on him for top scorer will be done I'd imagine.

callaway92 wrote: »

More than likely, no.

Giroud main striker up front with Griezmann & Payet supporting him. Déschamps is a big fan of Giroud.

Pogba, Matuidi & Kanté mids.

Brace for Giroud tonight. On a nice run going into the tournament.

Beastermc

MightyMandarin wrote:

Muller, Lewandowski, Ronaldo, Kane, Ibra, Bale and Dzyuba all to be their country's top scorers.

I have something similar done. Ronaldo, lewandowski, Kane, Martial, De Bruyne and Morata. €3 for €2000! Martial and de bruyne are the money makers, 4/1 and 9/2, just hoping they carry their fine club form into this.

Rayne Wooney

Beastermc wrote: »

I have something similar done. Ronaldo, lewandowski, Kane, Martial, De Bruyne and Morata. €3 for €2000! Martial and de bruyne are the money makers, 4/1 and 9/2, just hoping they carry their fine club form into this.

Giroud is 3/1 and is far more likely you'd think given his recent form for France and the fact he's starting

Beastermc

Rayne Wooney wrote:

Giroud is 3/1 and is far more likely you'd think given his recent form for France and the fact he's starting

He is indeed, especially after his couple of goals last night. I'm just one of these naysayers against Giroud for no reason other than his lack of pace and mobility, but he's getting harder and harder to ignore with his good form! I was just thinking that when it comes to playing the better defenses martial would have more about him to get a goal in a tight match, but it doesn't mean squat if he's not starting! I think I'll do another one with Giroud, and maybe no de bruyne either.

fryup

Austria to win it?

a good outside bet? @ 40/1

callaway92

fryup wrote: »

Austria to win it?

a good outside bet? @ 40/1

40s isn't awful, but you'd still have to assume one of France/Spain/Germany will win it I'd imagine.

inforfun

fryup wrote: »

Austria to win it?

a good outside bet? @ 40/1

Couldnt convince me at all last night against Holland.
Holland were the much better team and that is a team "managed" by Danny ****ing Blind

9de5q7tsr8u2im

Any tips for the group tricasts guys? (i.e 1st belgium, 2nd italy, 3rd ireland)

Anyone predict any major upsets in group stages?

How Soon Is Now

Anyone know why you can't group the top scorer for there team bets together on paddy power anymore?

Can remember doing it for previous tournament s.

Beastermc

How Soon Is Now wrote:

Anyone know why you can't group the top scorer for there team bets together on paddy power anymore?

How Soon Is Now wrote:

Can remember doing it for previous tournament s.

I am at a loss myself, did it before in the shop in powers. But Sky bet take the multiples on it online alright if that
helps.

xredmanlfcx

Poland to reach 1/4 final @ 2/1 Skybet. If they come 2nd in group, prob play Switzerland in last 16.

Poland to concede most goals @ 33/1 PaddyPower. If they beat Switzerland they likely play Spain in 1/4 final. Could ship a few to Germany and Spain, and maybe even a goal or two to Ukraine or Switzerland. Outside bet @ 33/1 of course.

France outright @ 7/2 PaddyPower (few weeks ago, now 3/1).

Croatia to qualify @ 4/9 William Hill.

Shanotheslayer

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Any tips for the group tricasts guys? (i.e 1st belgium, 2nd italy, 3rd ireland)

Anyone predict any major upsets in group stages?

Think Croatia top there group imo.

Croatia/Spain top 2.


Modric/Rakitic to really shine

spock.

Portugal to reach the semi final @ 4.5

inforfun

The horrible ***** of Goldman Sachs have done their way of predicting the euro's

Doyler92

Don't know if it's of any interest to anybody here but paddy power are doing a free offer type thing. Details are here:
http://blog.paddypower.com/football/euro-2016/news/2016/06/03/paddy-powers-hotshot-jackpot-heres-your-chance-to-bag-a-200k-prize-in-our-free-euro-2016-competition-all-you-need-is-a-little-bit-of-football-nous/

Lasagna Diarra

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Any tips for the group tricasts guys? (i.e 1st belgium, 2nd italy, 3rd ireland)

Anyone predict any major upsets in group stages?

Iceland and/or Slovakia to qualify

Royal Irish

I backed France to win with Giroud top goal scorer @ 33/1.

Loafing Oaf

fryup wrote: »

Austria to win it?

a good outside bet? @ 40/1

Well win could be a step too far but I might put a bit on them to reach the final at 16/1. Reckon any of 5 or 6 teams could come through on the top half of the draw, whereas it's hard to see past Germany and France on the other side.

Btw, which is generally better value, outright E/W or to reach the final?

Deise_2012

Lads, Giroud looks great value and is most likely gonna be playing up front with Griezmann on the wing. But I don't know really....he loves to flop when the pressure is on, his last day hat trick in the prem league, that wouldn't have happened in the middle of February. This really reminds me of backing Fred at the world cup 2 years ago because Brazil had a good path to the final, what was I thinking??

Loafing Oaf

Deise_2012 wrote: »

Lads, Giroud looks great value and is most likely gonna be playing up front with Griezmann on the wing. But I don't know really....he loves to flop when the pressure is on, his last day hat trick in the prem league, that wouldn't have happened in the middle of February.

Well he's been scoring for France lately and they're in what should be a straightforward group, but I know what you mean...