Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016

BumperD

The last major storm to make this track was Ivan in 2004, coming in off the Atlantic at the foot of the leeward islands. All the models then predicted a hit on Jamaica. Overnight, it switched direction.

The one thing about these that is certain is their unpredictability. The forecasters had this storm Thursday night as trending to a cat 3 and staying at that strength through today. In 18 hrs it went to a cat 5.

It's back to a cat 4 now but the central pressure is very low which doesn't augur well.

hatrickpatrick

Massive wave train gearing up over Africa at the moment, I can see at least four or five on the latest satellite. Coupled with the incredible long upper right which currently spans the entire stretch of the Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean, unless some of the more northerly upper troughs move southward and jack up the wind shear I reckon we could be in for a series of late season tropical cyclones in the very near future. As of right now, tropical waves exiting Africa have as far as the lesser Antilles protected by this upper ridge and virtually free of wind shear.

star gazer

Looks like it will a busy time for those tasked with monitoring tropical cyclone formation and development! Each extra hour of advance warning for the dangerous storms has a lot of value so it is important to remember that now and outside of the season.

Hurricane Nicole has formed and is possibly going to make it to a category two in the next twenty four hours.
It is 535km South of Bermuda with a minimum central pressure at 988mb and max sustained wind 145km/h. It probably won't go very far over the next few days and beyond that is inconclusive.
Nicole on wunderground

JessicasWarlic

ohhh my god

hatrickpatrick

I'm far too lazy to screencap and post a whole series of FI models at this hour of the night, but both the GFS and the ECM seem to be hinting that Hurricane Nicole's remnants, as well as some of Matthew's leftover thunderstorms, may ultimately contribute to a fairly nasty storm off our western coast in a couple of weeks. Too far out for even FI to show whether it might hit us or not.

That blue storm out in the central north Atlantic contains elements of both Nicole and Matthew:



While the GFS timescale goes further into FI and shows us being directly affected:



Note that the storm shown on the GFS is only a remnant in a very roundabout, hand-me-down sort of way - a large extratropical low is shown to absorb remnants of both storms and then make its way towards our southwest coast. The ECM's solution is far more direct.

One interesting phenomenon which someone might explain: As you cycle through these model runs, you can see at one point that Matthew swings west into the Gulf as a remnant low - BUT, before doing so, he effectively "transfers" all of his thunderstorm and rain activity towards another low (not Nicole, just a surface low) which briefly brushes him as they pass eachother. It is this new low which then ends up in the north central Atlantic at the end of the run.

Regardless of how unlikely that surely is, given FI and how off-the-mark even short range model forecasts have been with Matthew so far, what exactly is happening here? I've seen remnants being absorbed into larger extratropical systems plenty of times, but this might be the first time I've seen them "gift" their major thunderstorm activity to a second system, while surviving as a recognisable low themselves and heading off in a different direction. In such a scenario, which system - the low which is recognisable as still being the low that was once Matthew, or the low which "stole" all of Matthew's activity - can be truly described as the remnant? And what can the other be described as?

Meteorite58

One interesting phenomenon which someone might explain: As you cycle through these model runs, you can see at one point that Matthew swings west into the Gulf as a remnant low - BUT, before doing so, he effectively "transfers" all of his thunderstorm and rain activity towards another low (not Nicole, just a surface low) which briefly brushes him as they pass eachother. It is this new low which then ends up in the north central Atlantic at the end of the run.

Yea there is a lot of transferring of energies going on from one system to another, merging and being dragged and pushed with uppers steering and blocking that as we have seen this last week or so, with even the smallest change, can have profound and devastating results, of course this goes on all the time with little notice or consequence.

I wonder if the transferring being referred to is due to the relatively strong uppers dragging the Convective portion of the Storm ( like a lasso, it being much taller then the rest of the storm ) in a more Northerly track as the lower level portion drifts / steered back into the gulf ?

This is the moment of the separation that you are referring to I think ...








Maybe that is why the models are divided regarding the track of Matthew as to if it goes more Northerly or loops back South, its as if it splits in two( well a large part of it's energy ) .

NHC 1100 AM EDT

Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast
that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new
NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this
frontal system within the next couple of days.

star gazer

Tropical Storm, former and likely future Hurricane Nicole is stationary at the moment, expected to move North soon and become a Hurricane again tomorrow.
988mb min central pressure, 100km/h max sustained winds. It's been gathering up moisture over warm waters.

Meteorite58

Tropical Storm, former and likely future Hurricane Nicole is stationary at the moment, expected to move North soon and become a Hurricane again tomorrow.
988mb min central pressure, 100km/h max sustained winds. It's been gathering up moisture over warm waters.

As the NHC said today that Nicole at present has become shallow and a bit shapeless but is set to strengthen as it passes over near record SSTs and enter a favorable environment for development. It mentions how the models predict this to become a large Hurricane in about 3 days. Set to come under the influence of a lot of sheer after that. Just looking through the models it seems to peter out eventually mid Atlantic after a possible brush against somewhere around Nova Scotia but by that stage should be merely a storm or less . At present the charts indicate that it will eventually peter out mid Atlantic.





Big High Pressure blocking Nicole from making too much progress heading East

hatrickpatrick

Upper level conditions in the Eastern Atlantic have changed rather dramatically since I made my above prediction regarding the tropical waves currently over Africa - several large upper lows have pushed their way into the Atlantic over the few days and the upper ridge I mentioned has weakened considerably. This creates a rather more hostile wind shear environment. I still see the potential for several strong late-season tropical systems on a account of the unusually warm waters which have persisted in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, but it could be that we've prematurely reached the time of year when upper troughs roll with easy over the continental US and dominate the Atlantic, thus killing off the end of the season.



In this chart, the light blue features and letters indicate upper level systems, with zig-zag lines on white backgrounds being upper highs and dashed lines on white backgrounds being upper lows. As you can see, there is a very large and complex upper low just north of the main development region between Africa and America, with an easterly-moving vertical trough making its way across the tropical belt. Conversely, the red lines and dashes indicate surface systems, with "TW" designating tropical waves.

Just to give an idea of how important these upper level systems are, 2005 was a record-shattering hurricane season which spawned more named systems and more strong, Category 4 and 5 systems than any other in recorded history - and low wind shear caused by an unusually stubborn and persistent upper ridge lying across the tropical development region has been cited as one reason the strong storms started showing up so much earlier in the season than usual. From my own forecasting experience I would actually say that wind shear is the biggest factor in Atlantic tropical development, with dry, dusty air from Africa coming in at a close second. Tropical systems have actually formed over only mildly warm waters if the atmosphere is wet enough and there's enough upper blocking to keep the wind shear away.

star gazer

Nicole has been upgraded to a hurricane again and is unfortunately forecast to have a serious impact on Bermuda with storm surge and 75 to 125mm of rain and by then be a Category 2 Hurricane.
Currently: 982mb, 120km/h max sustained wind, moving 325 degrees (NW) at 7km/h.
A Hurricane warning has been issued for Bermuda.

star gazer

Nicole could be a Category 3 Major Hurricane very soon and be there or there abouts impacting on Bermuda with the centre close if not actually making landfall.
Right now 962mb, max sustained wind 175km/h and moving North at 17km/h.
100 to 200mm (4 to 8 inches) rain forecast for Bermuda.
Quite a defined eye.

bermieblowin

I am in Bermuda myself (live about 50 meters from the Ocean on the south shore!). Should be an interesting day tomorrow especially with the eye likely to move directly over the island, similar to Gonzalo in 2014.

star gazer

Best of luck bermieblowin, be safe.
The centre of Category 4 Hurricane Nicole is forecast to move to (at least very close) Bermuda in the next number of hours, storm surge of around two meters expected, depending on timing of tides, along with big waves.
215km/h max sustained winds, 952mb min pressure, moving NNE at 24km/h.

Bermuda radar. Eye appears to be right over the island currently.

http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

ninebeanrows

Saw a gust to 107kt recorded on one of the stations.

hatrickpatrick

Nicole is now forecast to head pretty much due North in the direction of Iceland over the next few days. What kind of effects would this have on our weather? I seem to actually remember we got a fairly nice couple of days one recent year because a post tropical storm made for Iceland in this manner. I can't remember the exact mechanism which described why it affected us that way.

Nicole still a minimal hurricane this morning (75 mph). Due to transition to an extra-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Main effects forecast now are a large swell to affect alot of the North Atlantic basin.

Minimal Hurricane Otto (75 mph currently) moving westwards in the Caribbean Sea. May actually cross central America and enter the Pacific still at tropical storm strength. Doesn't happen that often I think. Gets a name change if it occurs.

Otto has strengthened considerably. Now has winds of 110 mph.

Has now moved into the Pacific Ocean. Tropical storm strength currently with winds of 60 mph. First cyclone since 1996 (Cesar/Douglas) to move from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin. The renaming system used back then seems to been dropped though. Still called Otto.