Donald Trump

MeatTwoVeg

IvanRakitic wrote:

Right can anyone tell me how much of a shot this guy has? Paddy Power price him at 5/2 which means he has about a 30% chance. Is this accurate and also what states would he need to win to become president? (Not betting on him, just using it as a gauge)

Nate Silver, a statistician who correctly predicted all 50 states in 2012, and 49 in 2008, currently has Trump on 28%.
Some interesting reading at fivethirtyeight.com.

PopePalpatine

He'd need to win Florida and Pennsylvania (which have a combined 49 Electoral College votes) to beat Clinton. As it stands, he has at best a 30.9% chance of winning.

Trent Houseboat

wrote:

Right can anyone tell me how much of a shot this guy has? Paddy Power price him at 5/2 which means he has about a 30% chance. Is this accurate and also what states would he need to win to become president? (Not betting on him, just using it as a gauge)

30% is about what 538 give him too. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

There hasn't been a poll out of Ohio (where they have him 2% ahead) since 12th of September, so it will be interesting to see where things stand since Clinton's disastrous weekend and Trump's disastrous debate.

Billy86

A Little Pony wrote: »

Very serious.

Trump won't win because of policy, he is going to win because he will tell the American people what they want to hear and play on the desire that things could be great again.

So he's basically going to do the exact opposite of what he's been doing the last week or so, then?

Elliott S

20Cent wrote: »

Throwing mud makes people look at the mudslingers past.
Guliani had three wives one of which was his cousin!

Giuliani calling his current wife an expert on bioterrorism despite her only briefly having worked as a nurse and then making a career in as a pharmaceutical sales rep. He also overstated her role in the recovery efforts in the immediate aftermath of the Sept 11th attacks.

everlast75

Elliott S wrote: »

Giuliani calling his current wife an expert on bioterrorism despite her only briefly having worked as a nurse and then making a career in as a pharmaceutical sales rep. He also overstated her role in the recovery efforts in the immediate aftermath of the Sept 11th attacks.

From CNN...

Giuliani was attacking Hillary Clinton in an interview with NBC's Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press" the morning after Trump said -- with no evidence -- at a rally: "I don't even think she's loyal to Bill, if you want to know the truth. And really folks, really, why should she be?"

Not mentioned by Trump: He's had three divorces and faced accusations of infidelity himself. So has the thrice-married Giuliani.

Todd asked Giuliani if he's the right person to criticize Clinton's marriage.

Giuliani cited his pre-mayoral career as a Justice Department prosecutor.
"I'm the right person to level this charge, because I've never made such a charge, and I've prosecuted people who've committed rape," he said.
But, Todd responded, "You have your own infidelity charge."
"Well, everybody does," Giuliani said. "And I'm a Roman Catholic, and I confess those things to my priest. But I've never ever attacked someone who's been the victim ... of sexual abuse. Not only that, I put people in jail who've been the victim of sexual abuse."

Then, Giuliani complained about Todd's line of questioning.

"And I think your bringing up my personal life really is kind of irrelevant to what Hillary Clinton did. She's running for president, I'm not," said Giuliani, himself a presidential candidate in 2008, when he sought the GOP nomination, unsuccessfully.

Christy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There really isn't much point in linking anything if you think he clearly and meant to make the distinction and call PTSD sufferers weak.

I'm tired and don't want to get frustrated for no reason.

I think (upon further reading) that he misused words on this occasion. He wanted to call people who have gotten by without PTSD strong for it with no one on the campaign team able to manage to obvious logical inference. He does clearly make the inference though the intention is certainly in doubt given it doesn't fit with the rest of the speech.

However I can't logically let this pass while he still wants to brag about his way with words and is considered the say it as it is candidate. It doesn't make sense with this slip up. You can't have it both ways.

I am going to go ahead and assume you have nothing else in that case. If anything they haven't been blown up enough. The guy thinks the Chinese made up global warming as a hoax ffs!!!

Elliott S

Trent Houseboat wrote: »

and he has to hope she coughs on camera at some stage so his supporters can say she's being Weekend at Bernie's-ed

Trent Houseboat wrote: »

My guess is better than a man who doesn't know the end of his sentences before he starts them.

This is great stuff.

wes

everlast75 wrote: »

From CNN...

Giuliani was attacking Hillary Clinton in an interview with NBC's Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press" the morning after Trump said -- with no evidence -- at a rally: "I don't even think she's loyal to Bill, if you want to know the truth. And really folks, really, why should she be?"

Not mentioned by Trump: He's had three divorces and faced accusations of infidelity himself. So has the thrice-married Giuliani.

Todd asked Giuliani if he's the right person to criticize Clinton's marriage.

Giuliani cited his pre-mayoral career as a Justice Department prosecutor.
"I'm the right person to level this charge, because I've never made such a charge, and I've prosecuted people who've committed rape," he said.
But, Todd responded, "You have your own infidelity charge."
"Well, everybody does," Giuliani said. "And I'm a Roman Catholic, and I confess those things to my priest. But I've never ever attacked someone who's been the victim ... of sexual abuse. Not only that, I put people in jail who've been the victim of sexual abuse."

Then, Giuliani complained about Todd's line of questioning.

"And I think your bringing up my personal life really is kind of irrelevant to what Hillary Clinton did. She's running for president, I'm not," said Giuliani, himself a presidential candidate in 2008, when he sought the GOP nomination, unsuccessfully.

The man is a craven hypocrite and misogynist. Typical behavior of Trump supporters.

KingBrian2

wes wrote: »

The man is a craven hypocrite and misogynist. Typical behavior of Trump supporters.

Giuliana isn't exactly a Trump supporter he is backing the party candidate. It is his job to talk him and praise him. I would expect no less if your in the same party otherwise resign from party or stay quiet. How exactly does that make him a hypocrite and misogynist?

wes

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Giuliana isn't exactly a Trump supporter he is backing the party candidate.

I fail to see any appreciable difference.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

It is his job to talk him and praise him.

He can choose not too. He has chosen to do so, and deserves to be judged for it.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I would expect no less if your in the same party otherwise resign from party or stay quiet. How exactly does that make him a hypocrite and misogynist?

His words make him a hypocrite and misogynist. Did you read them? Pretty clear hypocrisy and misogyny. Then, there is the fact that he is supporting a racist, hypocritical, misogynist bully. Him being his parties candidate, is no defense to who and what he is supporting.

Penn

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Giuliana isn't exactly a Trump supporter he is backing the party candidate. It is his job to talk him and praise him. I would expect no less if your in the same party otherwise resign from party or stay quiet. How exactly does that make him a hypocrite and misogynist?

Nonsense. Plenty of other party members are saying the absolute minimum they have to. Guiliani is willingly appearing anywhere and everywhere, staunchly defending everything Trump says and does. He's not toeing the party line, he's actively advocating for Trump and defending him in a way no other Republicans are (bar probably Chris Christie).

He is exactly a Trump supporter.

nomadchocolate

Don't understand how the decomacrats could not find a better nominee than Clinton. In theory this should have been a landslide for the democrats.

Penn

nomadchocolate wrote: »

Don't understand how the decomacrats could not find a better nominee than Clinton. In theory this should have been a landslide for the democrats.

If it was Sanders, there'd almost be no contest at this point. But Clinton was always going to be their pick and to their own detriment, that's who they went with.

KingBrian2

wes wrote: »

I fail to see any appreciable difference.



He can choose not too. He has chosen to do so, and deserves to be judged for it.



His words make him a hypocrite and misogynist. Did you read them? Pretty clear hypocrisy and misogyny. Then, there is the fact that he is supporting a racist, hypocritical, misogynist bully. Him being his parties candidate, is no defense to who and what he is supporting.

He was speaking on a Meet the Press interview and he was defending the candidate that was voted on by all the Republican voters. He would not be a responsible representative if he did not air his views. He has issues with Bill Clinton as do a lot of the GOP. He even mentioned his own religion so he was going down a very familiar road. It is a fact that Bill Clinton does not represent the values that Mr Giuliana holds to be of great importance. He has every right to praise Donald Trump if he wants to.

screamer

Trump will win by virtue of being the only male candidate unfortunately we still live in a very chauvinistic world.

ohnonotgmail

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He was speaking on a Meet the Press interview and he was defending the candidate that was voted on by all the Republican voters. He would not be a responsible representative if he did not air his views. He has issues with Bill Clinton as do a lot of the GOP. He even mentioned his own religion so he was going down a very familiar road. It is a fact that Bill Clinton does not represent the values that Mr Giuliana holds to be of great importance. He has every right to praise Donald Trump if he wants to.

Guiliana does not represent the values that Guiliana holds to be of great importance.

BoatMad

screamer wrote: »

Trump will win by virtue of being the only male candidate unfortunately we still live in a very chauvinistic world.

I dont know, Merkel, etc and the many female heads of state etc ,show that in reality voters may prefer a calm women over a crazed man

ohnonotgmail

Penn wrote: »

If it was Sanders, there'd almost be no contest at this point. But Clinton was always going to be their pick and to their own detriment, that's who they went with.

i'm not sure that is true. Hilary is having trouble with swing voters (the only voters that are important) but socialist Bernie would fare even worse. he isnt the candidate likely to get moderate republicans to vote for the democrats.

Elliott S

Samaris wrote: »

While it's childish, I liked the https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldfF6chin5s It's very catchy. Yer man is smug, and braggadocious is a perfectly cromulent word, but it's still funny.

Ha, the sniffing. :pac:

wes

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He was speaking on a Meet the Press interview and he was defending the candidate that was voted on by all the Republican voters.

A candidate, that just so happens to be racist, misogynist bully. He chose to defend him. No one held a gun to his head. He is an adult, and was acting of his own free will.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He would not be a responsible representative if he did not air his views.

Supporting Trump is the opposite of being responsible.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He has issues with Bill Clinton as do a lot of the GOP.

Man who cheated has an issue with another man who cheated on his wife. Yeah, straight forward hypocrite. Attacking Hilary over it is where the misogyny comes in.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He even mentioned his own religion so he was going down a very familiar road.

Could care less about his Religion. It irrelevant and hardly any kind of defense.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

It is a fact that Bill Clinton does not represent the values that Mr Giuliana holds to be of great importance.

A man who cheats on his wife, complains about another guy doing the same thing. I couldn't make this up if I tried.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He has every right to praise Donald Trump if he wants to.

You have suggested that he is being practically being forced to do so. So which is it? Does he, or does he not support Trump of his own free will?

BTW, no one said he doesn't have a right to support Trump. The fact remains he is a hypocritical misogynist.

KingBrian2

wes wrote: »

A candidate, that just so happens to be racist, misogynist bully. He chose to defend him. No one held a gun to his head. He is an adult, and was acting of his own free will.



Supporting Trump is the opposite of being responsible.



Man who cheated has an issue with another man who cheated on his wife. Yeah, straight forward hypocrite. Attacking Hilary over it is where the misogyny comes in.



Could care less about his Religion. It irrelevant and hardly any kind of defense.



A man who cheats on his wife, complains about another guy doing the same thing. I couldn't make this up if I tried.



You have suggested that he is being practically being forced to do so. So which is it? Does he, or does he not support Trump of his own free will?

BTW, no one said he doesn't have a right to support Trump. The fact remains he is a hypocritical misogynist.

No one ordered him to go on Meet the Press he agreed and he ended up getting into a conversation about politicians love lives. When you have unrealistic expectations for your public representatives and elevate them above everyone else we get all this chat on the airwaves. I find it all so silly. Who cares if Trump or Clinton had affaires but to Americans this is all huge scandal.

Giuliana gets my respect, he was good for the city of New York so his opinions on Trump are valid.

BoatMad

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

i'm not sure that is true. Hilary is having trouble with swing voters (the only voters that are important) but socialist Bernie would fare even worse. he isnt the candidate likely to get moderate republicans to vote for the democrats.

in my view Hillary will mop up the middle ground republican vote, that I believe is being mis represented by the polls. IN the sanctity of the polling booth , these republicans would rather chew off their own leg then vote for Trump.

wes

KingBrian2 wrote: »

No one ordered him to go on Meet the Press he agreed and he ended up getting into a conversation about politicians love lives.

So he chose to say they things he said, so he can be judged on them. I fail to see the issue.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

When you have unrealistic expectations for your public representatives and elevate them above everyone else we get all this chat on the airwaves. I find it all so silly. Who cares if Trump or Clinton had affaires but to Americans this is all huge scandal.

Clearly Giuliani cares, seeing as he chose to talk about it. Same goes for his buddy Trump, who brought it up himself.

jooksavage

KingBrian2 wrote: »

He would not be a responsible representative if he did not air his views.

Representative of what ? He holds no elected office.

Penn

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

i'm not sure that is true. Hilary is having trouble with swing voters (the only voters that are important) but socialist Bernie would fare even worse. he isnt the candidate likely to get moderate republicans to vote for the democrats.

I think he'd have a better chance than Hillary, because while moderate republicans may be less likely to agree with Sanders on some (or many) issues, most moderate republicans hate Hillary because she's Hillary. Her biggest crime is being Hillary Clinton, because people (many Democrats included) simply hate Hillary Clinton.

KingBrian2

jooksavage wrote: »

Representative of what ? He holds no elected office.

Still member of the party. We have not seen the mass resignations from the GOP since Trump took over. Let the voters decide, just don't give up your membership cards. They might come in use post election.:pac:

ohnonotgmail

BoatMad wrote: »

in my view Hillary will mop up the middle ground republican vote, that I believe is being mis represented by the polls. IN the sanctity of the polling booth , these republicans would rather chew off their own leg then vote for Trump.

Penn wrote: »

I think he'd have a better chance than Hillary, because while moderate republicans may be less likely to agree with Sanders on some (or many) issues, most moderate republicans hate Hillary because she's Hillary. Her biggest crime is being Hillary Clinton, because people (many Democrats included) simply hate Hillary Clinton.

Both of these points are valid. I suspect (or rather hope) that there will be a lot of moderate republicans holding their noses while they tick the box next to Hilary.

Trent Houseboat

He was almost definitely on Meet the Press by order of the Trump team. His talking about prosecuting rapists is very much in line with the Law and Order bent that Trump has been going on.

He praised Donald's genius last week for not paying taxes.

Anyone want to speculate as to what Guliani was offered? Attorney General maybe?

BoatMad

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Both of these points are valid. I suspect (or rather hope) that there will be a lot of moderate republicans holding their noses while they tick the box next to Hilary.

if you read mainstream conservative blogs , and also newspapers, you will see that Trump is regarded as a false Republican , as you say these people will vote for Hiliary merely to prevent Trump gaining the White house, that vote will return when the GOP wakes up from the nightmare that is the Tea party and extremism and returns to the notion of " one nation" republicanism , best exemplified by Regan