Donald Trump

ohnonotgmail

pumpkin4life wrote: »

The people that are going to vote Trump are going to vote Trump, unless something absolutely catastrophic happens.

The people that are going to vote Hillary are going to vote Hillary, unless something absolutely catastrophic happens.

That leaves your undecided voters, of which there seem to be a number of characteristics. Low information, middle class, politically apathetic. In other words:

This is why Trump is going to win and the polls are not entirely accurate in his favor:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias

If you say you're a Trump supporter at work say, well the one in HR will want a word with you about you being a racist/misogynist/etc.

The debates we saw are not for Trump supporters or Hillary supporters.

They're undecideds.

Yeah i can imagine a lot of undecideds saying to themselves "what we really need in the whitehouse is somebody who isn't afraid to grab the pussy".

lawlolawl

CdeC wrote: »

If you have talked about women like the way Trump does in the video you need to take a long hard look at yourself.
If you're a d*ckhead behind peoples backs you are still a d*ckhead

Need a hand dismounting your charger there, Mr. White Knight?

jmayo

BoatMad wrote: »

of course , its been obvious from the start he doesnt care about politics or ideology , he has none, this is a episode of reality TV with him as the potential star.

This was mooted long ago that his whole run was just an attempt to push brand Trump.
Except a huge chunk of the folks in the USA actually bought into it.

Some times it is actually like he wants to throw it.

Then again he is probably narcissist so losing to a woman is not something he wants.


I find it fascinating that some people are shocked by the revelations in the tape.

Firstly this is a very rich guy (well at least outwardly) who has always younger model girlfriends/wives throughout his life.
Did he achieve that through charm and good looks or did he through a chequebook ?

And lets not fool ourselves there are a good chunk of women that would only be too glad to let him do whatever he wants.

Bernie Ecclestone (of F1 fame) is another example of this.
BTW I am not in any way saying Bernie grabs womens crotches at all.
But he is small not attractive guy yet has had a string of much younger nearly 6 foot model girlfriends and wives.
Maybe getting near a billion dollar divorce settlement is the attraction.

Secondly a huge number of very successful guys in business and in politics, including many of those presidents of the USA were sleazebags.
To put it crudely JFK would hop on anyone.
In fact by all accounts the secret service spent most of their time looking after his women.
Johnson bragged a lot about the size of his package.
We all know about Clinton.

In fact if anything Trump looks like he has one of the qualifications. :rolleyes:

VinLieger

lawlolawl wrote: »

Need a hand dismounting your charger there, Mr. White Knight?

Ohh good god thats a desperate reach and disgusting apologist crap of what he said, people who disagree with his language are nowhere near White Knight level

BoatMad

In fact if anything Trump looks like he has one of the qualifications

yes but unlike most other male US presidents , none of them made tapes touting off about women and then tried to laugh it away .

the US likes its politicians to be discreet not angels . Trump is simply a buffoon exploiting 21st century media to promote himself, He's the most unfit candidate that has ever graced the replubican platform in recent memory and he is the whirlwind that the GOP is reaping for not controlling its slide to the loony right of US politics

pumpkin4life

Bazzo wrote: »

More than just a whiff of delusion floating about in this thread. If you want to convince yourself that the polls are somehow off by an absolutely historic amount good for you, I look forward to the impending meltdown.

No, it's a true effect. When there is a controversial topic involved, the polls will be off as often as much as 5-10%. Gay marriage here is a good example. The most recent polls around the time were saying it would be 72 for 28 against. It ended up 62-38, a ten percent gap from the Red C poll.

Not to sound like an arrogant twat, but I was able to see Greece and Brexit play out the way it did because of this effect.

Think of a topic. Think about how much trouble you would be in with family and friends and work if you said it aloud. The higher that is, the more the social desirability bias takes effect.

BoatMad

That leaves your undecided voters, of which there seem to be a number of characteristics. Low information, middle class, politically apathetic. In other words:

This is why Trump is going to win and the polls are not entirely accurate in his favor:

The vast majority of them are ordinary reasonable people , that now see the choice between someone perhaps with flaws, and a man who is clearly a misogynistic lunatic . the meltdown in his vote will destroy the GOP

Bazzo

pumpkin4life wrote: »

No, it's a true effect. When there is a controversial topic involved, the polls will be off as often as much as 5-10%. Gay marriage here is a good example. The most recent polls around the time were saying it would be 72 for 28 against. It ended up 62-38, a ten percent gap from the Red C poll.

Not to sound like an arrogant twat, but I was able to see Greece and Brexit play out the way it did because of this effect.

Think of a topic. Think about how much trouble you would be in with family and friends and work if you said it aloud. The higher that is, the more the social desirability bias takes effect.

First of all, for around the 124719854173741472412471498th time in this thread, Brexit had polls neck and neck, then leave pulling ahead, then falling slightly behind after the murder of Jo Cox.

Second of all, this isn't a popular vote, the electoral college is a completely different system. In order for Trump to win the polls would not have to be wrong once, but again and again and again and again for each individual state. Here's a picture of what things look like:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

If you can look at them and convince yourself that Trump is somehow anywhere close to winning then as I said, good luck to you.

BoatMad

Not to sound like an arrogant twat, but I was able to see Greece and Brexit play out the way it did because of this effect.

The polls were bang on for Brexit , whats your point

pumpkin4life

Bazzo wrote: »

First of all, for around the 124719854173741472412471498th time in this thread, Brexit had polls neck and neck, then leave pulling ahead, then falling slightly behind after the murder of Jo Cox.

Second of all, this isn't a popular vote, the electoral college is a completely different system. In order for Trump to win the polls would not have to be wrong once, but again and again and again and again for each individual state. Here's a picture of what things look like:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

If you can look at them and convince yourself that Trump is somehow anywhere close to winning then as I said, good luck to you.

Brexit was a controversial topic. The same effect that I'm talking about still applied.

Next, you're mixing up increasing sample size for errors within individual polls. The same effect still applies for each poll.

Third, while Nate Silver is a damn good statistician and way smarter than anyone here I'd say, he's dealing with the Turkey problem and the social desirability bias. Look at his previous predictions for Trump this year in the Republican nominations which he got completely wrong. He talks about some of them below, including the anomaly part:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

I still think he's going to win, and if not, it's going to be much closer than the polls think. If there's a ten+ percent difference then ok. I'll gladly eat my words lol.

BoatMad

I still think he's going to win, and if not, it's going to be much closer than the polls think. If there's a ten+ percent difference then ok.

Otherwise, I'll gladly eat my words lol.

Id start putting out the table mats if I was you

ohnonotgmail

pumpkin4life wrote: »

Brexit was a controversial topic. The same effect that I'm talking about still applied.

Next, you're mixing up increasing sample size for errors within individual polls. The same effect still applies for each poll.

Third, while Nate Silver is a damn good statistician and way smarter than anyone here I'd say, he's dealing with the Turkey problem and the social desirability bias. Look at his previous predictions for Trump this year in the Republican nominations which he got completely wrong. He talks about some of them below, including the anomaly part:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

I still think he's going to win, and if not, it's going to be much closer than the polls think. If there's a ten+ percent difference then ok.

Otherwise, I'll gladly eat my words lol.

I dont think anybody is saying a 10+ percent difference. and 10+ percent of what? the popular vote? the vote in individual states?

Trent Houseboat

pumpkin4life wrote:

I still think he's going to win, and if not, it's going to be much closer than the polls think. If there's a ten+ percent difference then ok.

Otherwise, I'll gladly eat my words lol.

I don't think even Clinton's biggest supports would expect a 10+% margin. That's pretty much impossible in the US today.

4% would be considered a conclusive victory. Obama beat McCain by 6% or so and that was seen as crushing.

Christy42

pumpkin4life wrote: »

Brexit was a controversial topic. The same effect that I'm talking about still applied.

Next, you're mixing up increasing sample size for errors within individual polls. The same effect still applies for each poll.

Third, while Nate Silver is a damn good statistician and way smarter than anyone here I'd say, he's dealing with the Turkey problem and the social desirability bias. Look at his previous predictions for Trump this year in the Republican nominations which he got completely wrong. He talks about some of them below, including the anomaly part:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

I still think he's going to win, and if not, it's going to be much closer than the polls think. If there's a ten+ percent difference then ok.

Otherwise, I'll gladly eat my words lol.

Nate Silver got Trump wrong. The polls got him right. In fact that is what the article you posted is about At no point was there evidence of a shy Trump voter. There is still no evidence of a shy Trump voter or a shy Brexit voter.

The polls show a likely win for Clinton. They don't show a ten point gap though so no one is arguing that right now.

pumpkin4life

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I dont think anybody is saying a 10+ percent difference. and 10+ percent of what? the popular vote? the vote in individual states?

I meant to say (at work now, came out in a rush) that even if there's a ten percent+ where Trump gets trounced and I'm completely off the wall wrong, I'll gladly admit I ****ed up lol. I didn't mean to put the otherwise there. I'll re-edit that post.

BoatMad

I find it amazing that the remaining Trump supporters actually cant find anything positive to say about him, \

" The polls arnt true "
" the medias against him"
" its his potty mouth but hey look at clinton"
" sure he's bad, but ....."
"......

Ive never seen race to the bottom , where one of the candidates is from the start already sitting at the bottom and his plan is to pull the other down to his level, He seems utterly utterly devoid of any morality , anyone else would have long since resigned by now.

CdeC

pumpkin4life wrote: »

CdeC wrote: »

If you have talked about women like the way Trump does in the video you need to take a long hard look at yourself.
If you're a d*ckhead behind peoples backs you are still a d*ckhead

If Fr Jack is your muse I reckon talking about women in a crude and explicit manner behind their backs is about them most you could hope for.

ohnonotgmail

pumpkin4life wrote: »

I meant to say (at work now, came out in a rush) that even if there's a ten percent+ where Trump gets trounced and I'm completely off the wall wrong, I'll gladly admit I ****ed up lol. I didn't mean to put the otherwise there. I'll re-edit that post.

ten percent+ of what though?

Trent Houseboat

ohnonotgmail wrote:

ten percent+ of what though?

I think his point is that if Trump looses by less that 10% then the polls are off.

BoatMad

Trent Houseboat wrote: »

I think his point is that if Trump looses by less that 10% then the polls are off.

the only measure is electoral college votes any other measure is just bum fluff, he's not elected by the simple popular vote so that doesnt count.

Dyr

The interesting about Trump is he's showing the tea party up for the utter loons that they are

It's like that odd kid in school who never refused to do anything you dared them to, no matter how mental it was.

iLikeWaffles

fcuk the polls. You might as well ask 3 users here who will win the race with 2 saying the other candidate polls mean nothing as they are asking a limited number of people. Even if 235,248,000 voters turn out the percentages for that high a number will vary widely compared to the polls. 1% of the average number of voters is 2,352,480 people. What ever the number of people the online polls are asking who will win there is massive amounts of error.

BoatMad

fcuk the polls.

you're right , after all we are

" fed up of experts "
" in a post-fact world "

right on dude

A Little Pony

BoatMad wrote: »

fcuk the polls.

you're right , after all we are

" fed up of experts "
" in a post-fact world "

right on dude

Worked for Brexit.

Only thing Trump got wrong in the debate was Lincoln, he was a despot.

ohnonotgmail

A Little Pony wrote: »

Worked for Brexit.

Only thing Trump got wrong in the debate was Lincoln, he was a despot.

and we can see how well that is working out for the british.

Trent Houseboat

A Little Pony wrote:

Worked for Brexit.

Only thing Trump got wrong in the debate was Lincoln, he was a despot.

What did he do, imprison his political rivals?

wes

A Little Pony wrote: »

Only thing Trump got wrong in the debate was Lincoln, he was a despot.

Yeah, freeing all those slaves. The monster! :rolleyes:

It is rather telling that a Trump fan is against Lincoln. i can only wonder why....

A Little Pony

wes wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Only thing Trump got wrong in the debate was Lincoln, he was a despot.

Yeah, freeing all those slaves. The monster! :rolleyes:

It is rather telling that a Trump fan is against Lincoln. i can only wonder why....

Lincoln had to be convinced to go with the 13th Amendment, the opposite to what the movie tells you. Lincoln invaded another country and locked up dissenters.

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Worked for Brexit.

Only thing Trump got wrong in the debate was Lincoln, he was a despot.

and we can see how well that is working out for the british.

What is wrong with Brexit? It is happening, Article 50 will be triggered in March.

wes

A Little Pony wrote: »

Lincoln had to be convinced to go with the 13th Amendment, the opposite to what the movie tells you. Lincoln invaded another country and locked up dissenters.

Invade another country? The CSA were secessionists, and it was a civil war. Lincoln whether you like it or not freed the slaves, and the CSA terrorist state was pro-slavery (a lot like ISIS if you think about it) and was rightly crushed. They lost, and yes some of them were locked up for there crimes. You use the term dissenters, I think violent terrorists would be a far more accurate term.

Penn

A Little Pony wrote: »

What is wrong with Brexit? It is happening, Article 50 will be triggered in March.

Just because they've put a timeframe on it (possibly) happening, still doesn't make it a good thing. The pound is crashing, they're not going to get anywhere near as good a deal as they want, and they're being made a laughing stock due to how they've handled it so far.

Trump is very equatable to Brexit. Where even those who vote for him might wake up the next morning if he wins thinking "Dear Lord... what have we done..."