Donald Trump

Butters1979

Trent Houseboat wrote: »

I think you've answered the question. WE could be looking at a blakanisation of the "right" in America. The Trump arm of the Republican party will continue the march of the tea party to the extreme right and the more moderate Ryans and Romneys of the establishment will try to appeal to the centre right. Republican primaries for the mid terms might set these two factions against each other.

That's true, but it sounds a lot like what already happened this election. And it will always come down to Democrat v Republican in the end.

I suppose what you're getting at, and you could be right is have the Republican base gone so right wing but America overall center enough so the Republicans will be stuck in a loop of continuously nominating an unelectable candidate?

Billy86 wrote: »

Winning it went out the window quite a while ago, but he's less likely to break 100 EC votes than he is to get over 200 at this point.

Actually according to all the polls with some states it's already decided and Trump pretty much has 154 EC votes in the bag. (Compared to Clintons 191)

wes

A Little Pony wrote: »

He was a despot as seen by historical evidence of unconstitutional actions. It doesn't take a rocket science to see those things as despotic. Iraq was under the rule of a despotic ruler but George Bush still acted like a tyrant with his phoney war.

It was a civil war not the same as invading another country. Seriously, its a hell of a stretch your making here.

Grayson

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Heads will roll for that.

I doubt it. It's just another scandal in a long list. By tomorrow he'll probably have said something even dumber. The scary thing is that the hack was orchestrated by russia, russia released the documents and they ended up being talked about during a debate.

The crazy thing is that Russia somehow has better editorial decisions than the US right. They removed the story from Sputnik when they realised their mistake in misquoting the article. The US alt right outlets keep powering on and it ends up being used as "evidence" by the republican nominee.

First Up

Butters1979 wrote: »

Actually according to all the polls with some states it's already decided and Trump pretty much has 154 EC votes in the bag. (Compared to Clintons 191)

And the most optimistic (realistic) scenario I've seen has him just about scraping 203. Clinton is a lock for at least 300 and could hit 335.

538 has it 84% Clinton and 16% Trump. He has 18% yesterday.

iLikeWaffles

Out of interest where are people from in this thread I'm from Ireland.

InTheTrees

iLikeWaffles wrote: »

Out of interest where are people from in this thread I'm from Ireland.

I'm irish but I've been in the USA since the Clinton presidency.

California then Washington.

InTheTrees

Ops. Duplicate post. And I can't delete.

Billy86

Butters1979 wrote: »

Actually according to all the polls with some states it's already decided and Trump pretty much has 154 EC votes in the bag. (Compared to Clintons 191)

Nope, 49 to Clinton's 115 (scroll down to 'solid Trump' and 'solid Clinton') - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

If you include the 'likely' states as already decided, he's at 96 to Clinton's 163. Everything in the middle has been moving towards Clinton in increasing numbers in recent weeks. And there are almost no polls that I have seen that have been conducted in full since the 'pussy' video broke.

Where did you get 154 vs 191?

captbarnacles

Butters1979 wrote: »

The thing is, if Clinton gets elected, and all the anti Trump people cheer away, in 4 years time does anyone think the problems that led to this lunatic coming this close to the white house will be gone? Does anyone believe the trend will stop?

The swing to the right in Europe and America does not seem to be stopping anytime soon and the Republicans are aware of that. They know if Clinton wins this election that in 2020 they just need to come along with a mid-right slightly less insane candidate and they'll steam roll it.

Even before then, they'll likely retain control of the house and the senate and by the mid terms the Republicans will dominate the legislative branch completely.

Clinton will win, but will her presidency just be a one term, lame duck congress blocking legacy?

The Demographics are moving away from the Republicans. If the Democrats can stop the gerrymandering I doubt we'll see a republican president for many years.

captbarnacles

Wow just caught up with Trumps twitter meltdown:eek:

Billy86

captbarnacles wrote: »

The Demographics are moving away from the Republicans. If the Democrats can stop the gerrymandering I doubt we'll see a republican president for many years.

With the election over, what is going to be most important for the Democrats is the Senate from this point on. The Dems will (edit: typo) now have a majority in the Supreme Court for the first time in I believe over 40 years(!!) and depending on retirements of three older judges (78, 80 & 83 years old) could have that majority for a long time themselves.

In the Senate they hold a 44-54 minority, though it is sorta-kinda 46-54 as the two independents (King, Sanders) are far more Democrat than Republican. When you factor in that Tim Kaine (currently Biden) will as VP have any deciding vote, that would make it 46.5-54. 34 seats are up for grabs on November 8th, 24 of which are Republicans and only 10 Democrats. A gain of 4 seats will see the Democrats essentially have a majority, and a gain of 6 will see them flat out have the majority factoring in Kaine again. That is where the real race is over the next four weeks.

In the House of Representatives however it is almost certain for the Republicans to hold the majority. This is in part why they have ran away from Trump like the plague - not doing so would not only have surely lost them the Senate, but thrown the House into serious question too. Were the Democrats to gain the majority in the Senate, House, Supreme Court and have the President in the White House it would (if I have read correctly) been the first time a party has been in that position in 87 years!

Very unlikely, but not a risk the Republicans can even risk thinking about having happen.

dwayneshintzy

iLikeWaffles wrote: »

Out of interest where are people from in this thread I'm from Ireland.

Irish and American. I'll be voting if I get my absentee ballot in time.

Grayson

captbarnacles wrote: »

Wow just caught up with Trumps twitter meltdown:eek:

The one where he went after the former Miss Universe or is there another

dwayneshintzy

Grayson wrote: »

The one where he went after the former Miss Universe or is there another

Right now, it's happening right now.

K-9

Deleted User wrote: »

This is it. There's be an awful lot of stuff but nothing bite-sized and devastating like what always comes up for Trump. Explaining the wikileaks stuff is impossible on CNN but talking about what Trump "said" about veterans is easy. It's also easy to run stories about Russia causing the leaks instead of talking about the leaks.

But separate to Wikileaks, there's another guy who says he has a video of her making "disparaging remarks" about black people and he's going to release it next week. Will be interesting if true.

That's true, but unless they really catch her on something big I think the average Independent switches off.

It's the same with Trump's business failures, it doesn't seem to hit home or nobody seems that bothered about not releasing his tax returns despite it being expected of candidates for 40 years.

K-9

Butters1979 wrote: »

The thing is, if Clinton gets elected, and all the anti Trump people cheer away, in 4 years time does anyone think the problems that led to this lunatic coming this close to the white house will be gone? Does anyone believe the trend will stop?

The swing to the right in Europe and America does not seem to be stopping anytime soon and the Republicans are aware of that. They know if Clinton wins this election that in 2020 they just need to come along with a mid-right slightly less insane candidate and they'll steam roll it.

Even before then, they'll likely retain control of the house and the senate and by the mid terms the Republicans will dominate the legislative branch completely.

Clinton will win, but will her presidency just be a one term, lame duck congress blocking legacy?

All we can hope is somebody sane gets it next.

16 years of 1 party winning is rare so it's the Republicans to lose next time. Then again a lot thought that this time too.

Grayson

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Right now, it's happening right now.

HAHA

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/785816454042124288

K-9

I can see him leaking state secrets before it finishes.

PropJoe10

It looks to me as if he knows he's lost at this stage and is just out to cause as much damage to both Clinton and his own party as possible. He's an idiot egomaniac who shouldn't be given the airtime. And that's being polite about it.

Patser

Yep, definitely lashing out on Twitter, has attacked John McCain now.


https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/785885793340448769?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Pro Hoc Vice

Patser wrote: »

Yep, definitely lashing out on Twitter, has attacked John McCain now.


https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/785885793340448769?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's the media bias!!!!

Rjd2

K-9 wrote: »

All we can hope is somebody sane gets it next.

16 years of 1 party winning is rare so it's the Republicans to lose next time. Then again a lot thought that this time too.

Changing demographics of America means it would be near impossible to run someone that the vast majority would consider racist and is polling abysmally with so many different backgrounds e.g black people, latinos in four years and hope to win.

Jon Oliver in his infamous Trump takedown back in March remarked that after the 2012 loss, republicans acknowledged they needed to expand their base and well Trump has killed what was a noble and sensible aim.

Heck even those who backed Trump will struggle to brush their support for Trump under the carpet ( Pence Cruz), it won't be just democrats going after them over that, it will be Republicans who tried to swerve what has ultimately been an absolute car crash e.g Bush and Kasich if they run in 2020.

Cruz at this moment should be absolutely beating himself up, he had the moral high ground a few weeks ago but that terribly timed endorsement won't be forgotten.

Billy86

Patser wrote: »

Yep, definitely lashing out on Twitter, has attacked John McCain now.


https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/785885793340448769?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Good old Trump, full of sh*t as always.

He DID endorse McCain... in September, for the general. Not for the primaries. McCain lost, so Trump backed a loser there. Meanwhile the black guy went on to win.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/18/trump-endorses-mccain/

PopePalpatine

K-9 wrote: »

I can see him leaking state secrets before it finishes.

His supporters will spin that as, "Look, Donald's being transparent! He's triggering the Illuminati and Crooked HillaREEEEEEEEEE!"

osarusan

Jesus, his ego is astonishingly fragile.

scamalert

honestly watching first half of debate for few minutes actually thought Trump should win.

Hillary went into defensive about rape allegations and twisted straight away from the topic,by that time think everyone didn't care about what he said on that tape from 10yrs ago.Then proper explanation go in quiet bomb the terrorists-which i imagine would be more like drone strikes,instead of giving more weapons to different groups and getting more involved.And best part him saying yeah i avoided and benefited from not paying taxes since you yourself passed that and left it for over 30yrs hole to exploit.


But as Trump is Trump he fkd up as always when asked about muslims - rapists and terrorists will be put on plane and sent where they came from -then saying crap about justice and law and wetting checks on immigrants,blew his any chance,since youd imagine having such edge he would lowered tone down on whole Muslims,black Americans and mexicans and buying some trust that he cares not only about pure white working class.

knowing that white class in US is becoming minority in general,and the needed votes which if prepared proper speech could change his racist outlook towards other races and religions was his only chance which he basically went to score a goal and kicked into his own net.

if he had brains and lowered his tone towards foreign and domestic policies he would be on par for win,but if more then 6 months time he failed to realize that,no matter if Clinton leaves things as are since he failed to convince majority that he can't be proper leader,and find middle ground on his views.thus in my mind people will see both evil but will say at least one has sense when it comes to views of all races and every person,not a single group,which US are built from.

So hes left with few white milfs dozen rednecks and all white power type of people -bus rest will see him as threat,one way or another.

Capt'n Midnight

Dr. Jill Stein (Green) and Gary Johnson (Libertarian) are still getting support.

If Johnson pulled out how much would go to Trump ?

I've already pointed out that up to 11% of voters could be disenfranchised because of Photo ID rules.

Also there's also the problems of voter turnout.

And Diebold eVoting machines.

It looks like it's descended into war within the Republican Party, with Trump laying into Ryan and McCain.

Not clever. Both have attributes that make them popular amongst Republicans, or in McCains case just an admirable person all round. Again he's making the wrong call, he could gain sympathy by expressing disappointment and the hope that they will return to the fold - thereby suggesting they have abandoned him - rather than slamming them as if he is the party. It will leave him further isolated as people see Ryan in 2020 as the opposite of Trump and recent candidates ie. someone with a real chance who won't make gaffes and alienate those on his side.

Billy86

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Dr. Jill Stein (Green) and Gary Johnson (Libertarian) are still getting support.

If Johnson pulled out how much would go to Trump ?

Not much I'd reckon - due to the rules, even if he pulled out tomorrow Johnson's name would still be on the list come election day, plus early voting has opened a while back as well. My guess is we would likely see a 50/50 split or thereabouts, with a strong possibility of many of them voting Stein or refusing to vote at all as protest. Stein's would be considerably more likely to vote for Clinton, though her share is very small in the scheme of things (2% I think?).

The gap is so big at this point that Trump would need every single one of Johnson's votes AND every single one of Clinton's votes, just to stand a chance.

Billy86

Deleted User wrote: »

It looks like it's descended into war within the Republican Party, with Trump laying into Ryan and McCain.

Not clever. Both have attributes that make them popular amongst Republicans, or in McCains case just an admirable person all round. Again he's making the wrong call, he could gain sympathy by expressing disappointment and the hope that they will return to the fold - thereby suggesting they have abandoned him - rather than slamming them as if he is the party. It will leave him further isolated as people see Ryan in 2020 as the opposite of Trump and recent candidates ie. someone with a real chance who won't make gaffes and alienate those on his side.

Doesn't matter what Trump does at this point, it's done. I reckon he just wants to go down in a blaze of (what he considers) glory.