Donald Trump

CMOTDibbler

First Up wrote: »

538 giving Clinton 340 electoral college votes to Trump's 197. Thats a massacre.

Real Clear Politics showing Clinton a lock for 260 to Trump's 195. That means Trump would need 75 of the remaining 112 "swing" votes and Clinton needs just 10.

And Trump is trailing in 97 of them.

That's actually 165 for Trump, not 195.

The schocker is that he's losing Texas and Florida, North Carolina and Missouri. No wonder the Republicans are retreating to previously prepared positions and leaving Trump hang out to dry. Some of them are probably saying: "So that's what toxic means. And it could get me!"

InTheTrees

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

That's actually 165 for Trump, not 195.

The schocker is that he's losing Texas and Florida, North Carolina and Missouri.

Utah is starting to look like a possible Clinton win. That would be unprecedented.

CMOTDibbler

Apparently he's told a rally in Florida that ISIS will take over the US if Hillary Clinton wins.

How in the name of all that's holy can people believe this crap? It couldn't be more outlandish if he started telling people that the Martians were invading. Even that's more believable.

Billy86

First Up wrote: »

538 giving Clinton 340 electoral college votes to Trump's 197. Thats a massacre.

Real Clear Politics showing Clinton a lock for 260 to Trump's 195. That means Trump would need 75 of the remaining 112 "swing" votes and Clinton needs just 10.

And Trump is trailing in 97 of them.

That's not really the lock - that is including 'lean', the truth is even worse for Trump.

If you scroll down you can see the 'lock' - 115 for Clinton vs 49 for Trump. At this point the 'likely' ones are probably in the bag too, giving each an additional 47 - 163 for Clinton vs 96 for Trump.

Here is where is gets especially bad for The LeaderDonald - if I am right, every single state in the middle has been moving towards Clinton. There are 280 up for grabs there; Trump only has 102 of these vs 178 for Clinton. That brings it to 341 for Clinton, vs 198 for Trump for Trump.

Then to make matters worse again... extremely little polling data has come in since the pussy video and second debate. I reckon he is done in Arizona, which alone would make it 352 vs 188. If the swing is also enough to lose him the other two 'toss up' states he has the lead in (Georgia, Iowa) then is becomes 374 Clinton, 166 Trump. This is a very real possibility.

And now his absolute meltdown and complete turn on the establishment GOP could even put some of the 'leans Trump' states in jeopardy and create a domino effect. At +6.7 he should have Texas, but if he somehow amazingly manages to lose just that one state (which is certainly possible), it becomes 412 Clinton, 128 Trump.

Now that would take a pretty big shift, but again... he has basically lost the entire GOP establishment in the last 5 days, and we are still waiting on the polls for that and the debate. It will be interesting to see where things stand by the end of this week.

I doubt he goes below 100, but I equally doubt he finishes above 200. Somewhere 140-180 is most likely, which would give Clinton, the least likeable candidate besides Trump in 20-30 years, a victory possibly even bigger than Bill Clinton had in 1996 against a terrible opponent when his popularity was at it's absolute peak.

That's how useless Trump is, that is the gauge of how much of a loser we are looking at.

nomadchocolate

Billy86 wrote: »

That's not really the lock - that is including 'lean', the truth is even worse for Trump.

If you scroll down you can see the 'lock' - 115 for Clinton vs 49 for Trump. At this point the 'likely' ones are probably in the bag too, giving each an additional 47 - 163 for Clinton vs 96 for Trump.

Here is where is gets especially bad for The LeaderDonald - if I am right, every single state in the middle has been moving towards Clinton. There are 280 up for grabs there; Trump only has 102 of these vs 178 for Clinton. That brings it to 341 for Clinton, vs 198 for Trump for Trump.

Then to make matters worse again... extremely little polling data has come in since the pussy video and second debate. I reckon he is done in Arizona, which alone would make it 352 vs 188. If the swing is also enough to lose him the other two 'toss up' states he has the lead in (Georgia, Iowa) then is becomes 374 Clinton, 166 Trump. This is a very real possibility.

And now his absolute meltdown and complete turn on the establishment GOP could even put some of the 'leans Trump' states in jeopardy and create a domino effect. At +6.7 he should have Texas, but if he somehow amazingly manages to lose just that one state (which is certainly possible), it becomes 412 Clinton, 128 Trump.

Now that would take a pretty big shift, but again... he has basically lost the entire GOP establishment in the last 5 days, and we are still waiting on the polls for that and the debate. It will be interesting to see where things stand by the end of this week.

I doubt he goes below 100, but I equally doubt he finishes above 200. Somewhere 140-180 is most likely, which would give Clinton, the least likeable candidate besides Trump in 20-30 years, a victory possibly even bigger than Bill Clinton had in 1996 against a terrible opponent when his popularity was at it's absolute peak.

That's how useless Trump is, that is the gauge of how much of a loser we are looking at.

Boom! Roasted!

Your analysis is spot on. Trump supporters cling to email leaks...but it is too late

InTheTrees

I've been watching news reports today of people out voting in Ohio. Its not just early mail in voting but the polling places are open too, presumably they stay open all the way through to nov8.

It looked very busy.

MintyMagnum

InTheTrees wrote: »

I've been watching news reports today of people out voting in Ohio. Its not just early mail in voting but the polling places are open too, presumably they stay open all the way through to nov8.

It looked very busy.

Vote early and vote often

Billy86

InTheTrees wrote: »

I've been watching news reports today of people out voting in Ohio. Its not just early mail in voting but the polling places are open too, presumably they stay open all the way through to nov8.

It looked very busy.

And while this is a very inexact science and extremely 'soft' data... it does not look good for Trump:
https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

In terms of harder data, Clinton has an extremely narrow lead in Ohio (0.5 points) but had the momentum, even before the events of the last week - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

In what appears to be an up-to-date poll after those events, Clinton has a 9 points lead - http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/10/new_ohio_poll_puts_hillary_cli.html#incart_river_home

We won't know for another four weeks or so, but none of these signs look good for Trump.

take everything

Yeah looks like he is toast.
He's despicable really. Strange dude.
Still oddly compelling in his hold over nearly half the electorate.

nomadchocolate

take everything wrote: »

Yeah looks like he is toast.
He's despicable really. Strange dude.
Still oddly compelling in his hold over nearly half the electorate.

When Clinton gets office, Trump is going to be audited by the IRS for the rest of his life

Grayson

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

http://benghazi.house.gov/NewInfo Republicans do blame hillary for the failures and rightly so.

She broke the law and then tried to cover it up be deleting emails to cover her tracks.She put her country at great risk talking about national and foreign security issues on a personal computer at her home. Anyone else they be in jail serving time.


Neocon American view of things. We are the number 1 country in the world. Anyone stands in our way we use economic and military strength to stop them. A American Neocon (hilary) will do what is needed to maintain American hegemony. It was outlined here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century

That link doesn't say that Hillary was to blame. The committed findings stated that although the state department could have done more they did not find the secretary directly responsible. That committee consisted of republicans and democrats. Yes, some republicans still blame her but there was no evidence to support it.

Finally neocons generally believe that military force is the first option. A neocon wouldn't have advocated a strike against Iran. You can see republican neocons are the ones that advocate it first.

Billy86

The... mind... boggles!!

BorneTobyWilde

I wonder does Trump have a fear of flying in his plane. Things are at a crazy level.

BorneTobyWilde

Where does Obama go from here. If Hilary is elected will he continue to work in a role, or is that possible. He's too young to go to an old peoples home.

oik

Billy86 wrote: »

The... mind... boggles!!

She was right in one thing she said, it's fcking irrelevant to fitness for the presidency.

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

The... mind... boggles!!

Jesus.

Hard to believe she's not a caricature of a Trump supporter, but she does indeed seem to be an actual person.

Billy86

Yeah... locker room talk... quite literally grabbing them by the pussy.

oik

The Clinton's strategy is demoralise demoralise demoralise.

They know there's a huge enthusiasm gap and it's key to their securing victory against any upsets.

There's a clear pattern of behaviour that is evident in the media coverage and also in the ad hoc production of polling by NBC that even their own host admitted was cooked.

Realistically Trump is probably trailing by 4-5 nationally and none of the gaps in key swing states are insurmountable. Polls still show a large number of undecideds. Enough to swing the election.

Bazzo

I swear sometimes I check this thread and could swear it's groundhog day. Trump's fanboys & girls will just parrot the same **** over and over regardless of how many times it's corrected. If it wasn't so important to keep this cretin out of office I'd have given up on, and be encouraging other people to give up, repeatedly calling their bull**** a long time ago.

Bazzo

Bazzo wrote: »

I swear sometimes I check this thread and could swear it's groundhog day. Trump's fanboys & girls will just parrot the same **** over and over regardless of how many times it's corrected. If it wasn't so important to keep this cretin out of office I'd have given up on, and be encouraging other people to give up, repeatedly calling their bull**** a long time ago.

What's a little sexism, racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and a few lies between friends?

oik

Billy86 wrote: »

Yeah... locker room talk... quite literally grabbing them by the pussy.

Too good to be true.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump hit on a girl on a plane. Where is story, she had no interest and Trump stopped.
He didn't continue and then rape her. Guys try it on all the time. Its people like Bill who can't take no for an answer that are the problem.

Billy86

You really do have to appreciate how supportive Trump fans are of sexual assault. Like I said, at this stage they're as big a reason as The LeaderDonald himself in why Clinton is going to win this election by an absolute landslide.

I'm sure they'd feel the exact same if a stranger started groping their own mother's vaginas against her will.

FatherTed

oik wrote: »

The Clinton's strategy is demoralise demoralise demoralise.

They know there's a huge enthusiasm gap and it's key to their securing victory against any upsets.

There's a clear pattern of behaviour that is evident in the media coverage and also in the ad hoc production of polling by NBC that even their own host admitted was cooked.

Realistically Trump is probably trailing by 4-5 nationally and none of the gaps in key swing states are insurmountable. Polls still show a large number of undecideds. Enough to swing the election.

Actually it is Trump who is demoralizing the republicans at least the non-deplorable types. The deplorables i.e. the racists/sexists/homophobics/bigots are a lost cause anyway. But then you have the "normal" repubs who believe in a fiscal conservative but slightly liberal platform will be staying home this election.

Billy86

Is the third debate also a 'town hall' format? Because we know the two women Trump sexually assaulted will likely be front and centre for it if it is.

oik

Billy86 wrote: »

I'm sure they'd feel the exact same if a stranger started groping their own mother's vaginas against her will.

I'm not supportive of his actions towards that woman if they're true.


But if you have to bring up someone's mother - which is a clear attempt to get someone to stop thinking rationally - in order to get someone to agree with you, then maybe your position is not rational.

BorneTobyWilde

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump hit on a girl on a plane. Where is story, she had no interest and Trump stopped.
He didn't continue and then rape her. Guys try it on all the time. Its people like Bill who can't take no for an answer that are the problem.

I don't understand why any man would minimize Trumps behaviour.

oik

Candie wrote: »

minimize

The biggest lie of this election cycle is that Trump called all Mexicans rapists.

Billy86

And here he is on video grooming a 10 year old girl for the future, back in 1992.

He goes to trial in December of this year for having raped (and threatened to murder) a 13 year old girl only 2 years later, in 1994 - http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/lawsuit-accusing-trump-raping-girl-13-december-hearing-article-1.2828413

FatherTed

oik wrote: »

The biggest lie of this election cycle is that Trump called all Mexicans rapists.

No he called Mexican and other Latino immigrants rapists and drug dealers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbyoUb3mp1E