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Donald Trump

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    #2372
    RDM_83 again
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,116 ✭✭✭RDM_83 again


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    RDM_83 again wrote: »
    I'm curious what the pro-clinton people feel about the concussion stuff? Like I mean in her own words yu wasn't able to remember briefings etc.

    This has been going on since the 1990's

    An endless torrent of republican accusations and rumours that come to nothing. Bill Clinton's failed impeachment was the result of years of republican investigations into whitewater that produced nothing. And its been going on ever since for thirty years.

    So you ask about the "concussion" stuff? Well she released a medical report that says she's fine. The report appears to be genuine and written by real medical professionals too.

    I'm taking about the fact that in a formal investigation she used health issues to explain her likely illegal actions.
    This isn't a republican morality campaigns it's on the record with the FBI that she has made loads of statements that indicate she is either A-a liar B-Incomptent in her role C- Turns up to work with health issues that impeed her carrying out her role.

    I'm not asking people to say that Trump I a better candidate he's probably not, I'm saying that Hillary from her own statements (is the FBI stuff under oath?) Is a deeply flawed candidate who's issues can't simply be blamed on the media and Republicans


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    #2373
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    I'm not asking people to say that Trump I a better candidate he's probably not, I'm saying that Hillary from her own statements (is the FBI stuff under oath?) Is a deeply flawed candidate who's issues can't simply be blamed on the media and Republicans


    so its clear ,its a race to elect a flawed candidate , but its clear that while clinton is flawed, Trump is unhinged


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    #2374
    Winterlong
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭Winterlong


    Clinton is now 4/11 and Trump is 11/5 to win with the bookies.

    11/5 looks good value to me.


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    #2375
    ScumLord
    Registered Users Posts: 28,789 ✭✭✭✭ScumLord


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Clinton is now 4/11 and Trump is 11/5 to win with the bookies.

    11/5 looks good value to me.
    Looks like gibberish to me. Is eleven fives a bad thing?


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    #2376
    osarusan
    Registered Users Posts: 16,639 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    ScumLord wrote: »
    Looks like gibberish to me. Is eleven fives a bad thing?
    With Clinton if you bet 11 euros you win 4 euros (you get back 15 in total). With Trump if you bet 5 euros you win 11 (get back 16 in total).

    The less money you win for betting, the more likely the bookies think it is that that event will happen. Trump is a better price (as in, you win more money) than Clinton because the bookies think he is less likely to win.


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    #2377
    Winterlong
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭Winterlong


    ScumLord wrote: »
    Looks like gibberish to me. Is eleven fives a bad thing?

    Well, if the polls are to be believed then Trump is currently slightly ahead at the moment. You would expect the bookies odds to support that. But they dont.

    The returns on winning bet on Clinton are much less than the returns on a same stake winning bet on Trump. There is the value.

    I reckon the polls are consistently going to be short on Trump as many of the people who will vote for him are not normal voters and so not in the normal sampling of the pollsters.
    And what people admit to a pollster as voting versus what they do in the privacy of the ballot box can be different the more extreme the candidate.


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    #2378
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Well, if the polls are to be believed then Trump is currently slightly ahead at the moment. You would expect the bookies odds to support that. But they dont.

    The returns on winning bet on Clinton are much less than the returns on a same stake winning bet on Trump. There is the value.

    I reckon the polls are consistently going to be short on Trump as many of the people who will vote for him are not normal voters and so not in the normal sampling of the pollsters.
    And what people admit to a pollster as voting versus what they do in the privacy of the ballot box can be different the more extreme the candidate.

    yes not on an electoral college basis , I dont think Trumo has a chance and thats all that matters , polls dont typically handle this wrinkle unless they are widespread and nationwide and organised by state


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    #2379
    osarusan
    Registered Users Posts: 16,639 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Well, if the polls are to be believed then Trump is currently slightly ahead at the moment.
    What polls are you looking at?


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    #2380
    Winterlong
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭Winterlong


    osarusan wrote: »
    What polls are you looking at?

    Rasmussen Reports

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-donald-trump-ahead-hillary-clinton-new-polls-latest-a7225971.html


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    #2381
    Pro Hoc Vice
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,087 ✭✭✭Pro Hoc Vice


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Well, if the polls are to be believed then Trump is currently slightly ahead at the moment. You would expect the bookies odds to support that. But they dont.

    The returns on winning bet on Clinton are much less than the returns on a same stake winning bet on Trump. There is the value.

    I reckon the polls are consistently going to be short on Trump as many of the people who will vote for him are not normal voters and so not in the normal sampling of the pollsters.
    And what people admit to a pollster as voting versus what they do in the privacy of the ballot box can be different the more extreme the candidate.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    How many polls have you read that trump is ahead.


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    #2382
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Well, if the polls are to be believed then Trump is currently slightly ahead at the moment. You would expect the bookies odds to support that. But they dont.

    You should read up on the Electoral College.

    The US presidential election is not decided by one person one vote but based on a,total of delegates accumulated by winning individual states.


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    #2383
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    This site has a good interactive map of the states and the delegate count.

    http://www.270towin.com/


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    #2384
    B0jangles
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,951 ✭✭✭B0jangles


    Guy, guys, I've just found undeniable PROOF that Hillary Clinton has massive continuous seizures!

    http://jtf.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/hillary-clinton-laughing.jpg

    To disable the Advanced Seizure Screen tech the Dems are using, just hold down F11 on your keyboard once you've opened the linked page.


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    #2385
    Winterlong
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭Winterlong


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    You should read up on the Electoral College.

    The US presidential election is not decided by one person one vote but based on a,total of delegates accumulated by winning individual states.

    Ah here, do you really think there is anyone posting in here who does not understand the electoral college? No need to be so patronising.


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    #2386
    Cheerful Spring
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,893 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring


    New President in two months time. Imagine Trump as President, the world is about to get nuttier.


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    #2387
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Ah here, do you really think there is anyone posting in here who does not understand the electoral college? No need to be so patronising.

    Right. Sorry. I actually thought a lot of people didnt understand the electoral college.

    Anyway you were curious why the bookies werent reflecting trump being "slightly ahead" but if you look at the alll important electoral college map you would see Hillary is still ahead.

    The bookies are probably using nate silvers data:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast


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    #2388
    A Little Pony
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭A Little Pony


    Why is she always coughing? She is clearly not well and should drop out. She isn't in a healthy state to be President. She is being forced to run by people in higher positions.


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    #2389
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,945 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    A Little Pony wrote: »
    Why is she always coughing? She is clearly not well and should drop out. She isn't in a healthy state to be President. She is being forced to run by people in higher positions.

    Yeah, let's totally ignore that the doctor of the fast food-loving Drumpf wrote his fawning medical report in 5 minutes. :rolleyes:


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    #2390
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users Posts: 7,747 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    Right. Sorry. I actually thought a lot of people didnt understand the electoral college.

    Anyway you were curious why the bookies werent reflecting trump being "slightly ahead" but if you look at the alll important electoral college map you would see Hillary is still ahead.

    The bookies are probably using nate silvers data:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast

    To be fair, Nate Silver is having a very bad year when it comes to predictions about Donald Trump...


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    #2391
    A Little Pony
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭A Little Pony


    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    A Little Pony wrote: »
    Why is she always coughing? She is clearly not well and should drop out. She isn't in a healthy state to be President. She is being forced to run by people in higher positions.

    Yeah, let's totally ignore that the doctor of the fast food-loving Drumpf wrote his fawning medical report in 5 minutes. :rolleyes:
    Trump looks like he won't collapse at any moment unlike Hillary.


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    #2392
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Winterlong wrote: »
    Rasmussen Reports

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-donald-trump-ahead-hillary-clinton-new-polls-latest-a7225971.html

    I'd be very reluctant to use that lot if i were you, very biased towards Republicans and always have been. I know it goes both ways, their will be pollsters biased towards Clinton also, but when its all said and done Rasmussen is still pretty bad.


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    #2393
    Penn
    Registered Users Posts: 33,804 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    *proof of Trump using own charity to bribe people*

    All seems perfectly fine.

    *Hillary coughs*

    SHE'S NOT FIT TO BE PRESIDENT!


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    #2394
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Hande hoche! wrote: »
    To be fair, Nate Silver is having a very bad year when it comes to predictions about Donald Trump...

    Nate was very upfront about calling Trump wrongly in the primaries, he just expected him to be another early front runner that crashed out after 5 or 6 states, but the data was there to show more was going on.

    I'd say he'll be very aware of his errors and learn from them.

    Clinton is doing well in states like Texas, Georgia and N. Carolina but she'll hardly win them and Trump is doing well in states like Ohio and Iowa, which is very encouraging for him, the bell weather state and all that.

    For now it just seems Trump is back to where he should have been a month ago, I wouldn't read too much else into it.

    Trump is losing the college graduate demographic, Republicans always win that. I think that reflects that many educated traditional Republican voters will not vote for him, women especially.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #2395
    Penn
    Registered Users Posts: 33,804 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/370200907834597377

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/fox-news-to-pay-20m-to-settle-gretchen-carlson-s-sexual-harassment-lawsuit-1.2781466?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
    Fox News has reached a $20 million (€18 million) settlement of former anchor Gretchen Carlson’s sexual harassment lawsuit against the network’s former chief Roger Ailes, Vanity Fair said on Tuesday, citing three people familiar with the settlement.


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    #2396
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Trump is losing the college graduate demographic, Republicans always win that. I think that reflects that many educated traditional Republican voters will not vote for him, women especially.

    he's loosing women, hispanic, middle ground republicans , blacks etc et c


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    #2397
    RDM_83 again
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,116 ✭✭✭RDM_83 again


    K-9 wrote: »
    Hande hoche! wrote: »
    To be fair, Nate Silver is having a very bad year when it comes to predictions about Donald Trump...

    Nate was very upfront about calling Trump wrongly in the primaries, he just expected him to be another early front runner that crashed out after 5 or 6 states, but the data was there to show more was going on.

    I'd say he'll be very aware of his errors and learn from them.

    Clinton is doing well in states like Texas, Georgia and N. Carolina but she'll hardly win them and Trump is doing well in states like Ohio and Iowa, which is very encouraging for him, the bell weather state and all that.

    For now it just seems Trump is back to where he should have been a month ago, I wouldn't read too much else into it.

    Trump is losing the college graduate demographic, Republicans always win that. I think that reflects that many educated traditional Republican voters will not vote for him, women especially.

    A yank friend of mines who's very "America!" Facebook posting has switched from sort of pro-sanders (had hesitations) to anti-Hillary slightly pro-Trump to anti Hillary and that libertarian candidate.
    I know it's one guy (who does have some liberal views despite his general attitudes) but it was interesting to see the process


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    #2398
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    True, there's some of that going on in both sides. It does seem the Libertarian and Green candidates are damaging Hillary more than Trump so far.

    Trump was only carrying 78% of the Republican vote last poll I read. Don't know about Hillary but I'd expect a push from Sanders nearer the election if his support becomes a big problem.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #2399
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,945 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    I'd imagine Johnson and Stein are benefiting quite a bit from Sanders' supporters who had no intention of voting for Hillary.


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    #2400
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    A Little Pony wrote: »
    Why is she always coughing? She is clearly not well and should drop out. She isn't in a healthy state to be President. She is being forced to run by people in higher positions.
    Why is Trump always clutching his side in agony and having to deal with constant nosebleeds?


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    #2401
    gitzy16v
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,093 ✭✭✭gitzy16v


    cos he's laughing so hard up in his ivory tower??


This discussion has been closed.
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