General Tour de France Thread 2016 - use spoiler tags until midnight

MPFGLB

Hello everyone ...its been an age...well 3 days to be exact

I thought I' start a general Tour de Fracne discussion thread for the following purposes

1. Speculation on team selection (including the annual good barny about Nico Roche selection..though this year I am pretty certain he won't be there )

Latest selection startlist :

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163736&c=3

2. Route discussion
Including specualtion on who can win what stages

Tour website including stage descriptions :
http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2016/us/

3. General team discussions

4. Predictions including winner, podium, top 10, KOm, sprints jersey , young rider ,etc

5. Odds and tips

6. Other general items of information and fun

MPFGLB

Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach Sainte-Marie-du-Mont (188 km, Flat)
Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (182 km, Flat)
Stage 3: Granville → Angers (222 km, Flat)
Stage 4: Saumur → Limoges (232 km, Flat)
Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216 km, Mountain)
Stage 6: Arpajon-sur-Cère → Montauban (187 km, Flat)
Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain → Lac de Payolle (162 km, Mountain)
Stage 8: Pau → Bagnères-de-Luchon (183 km, Mountain)
Stage 9: Vielha Val d'Aran → Andorre Arcalis (184 km, Mountain)
Rest day: Andorra
Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany → Revel (198 km, Hilly)
Stage 11: Carcassonne → Montpellier (164 km, Flat)
Stage 12: Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (185 km, Mountain)
Stage 13: Bourg-Saint-Andéol → La Caverne du Pont-d'Arc (37 km, ITT)
Stage 14: Montélimar → Villars-les-Dombes Parc des Oiseaux (208 km, Flat)
Stage 15: Bourg-en-Bresse → Culoz (159 km, Mountain)
Stage 16: Moirans-en-Montagne → Berne (206 km, Flat)
Rest day: Bern
Stage 17: Berne → Finhaut-Emosson (185 km, Mountain)
Stage 18: Sallanches → Megève (17 km, ITT)
Stage 19: Albertville → Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (146 km, Mountain)
Stage 20: Megève → Morzine-Avoriaz (146 km, Mountain)
Stage 21: Chantilly → Paris Champs-Élysées (116 km, Flat)

Darkglasses

For clarity, general race threads like this need spoiler tags til midnight

MPFGLB

So I am going to start off the speculation


Greipel in Yellow on stage 1

Degenkolb on stage 2

velo.2010

Probably the strongest GC line up in recent years owing to the inclusion of Aru for the first time and others like Tom Dumoulin specifically targeting the overall (if he races).

Just a shame the route isn't as inspiring.... though previous routes that looked good on paper were a bit of a let down, so the reverse may be the case this year! Who knows?

odyssey06

Disappointed that there is no team time trial... I liked the "and now for something completely different" aspect of it...

And will miss Nico's diary if he doesn't make the Team Sky start list.

ednwireland

stage 15 mainly cos ive ridden the last climb which is used twice

MPFGLB

ednwireland wrote: »

stage 15 mainly cos ive ridden the last climb which is used twice

That is some stage...hard hard

I guess the lack of TT and TTT is to swing away from a Froome/Sky domination and towards a Quintana win

SKY selection list is super strong on paper

I think the team will be -Froome,Thomas, Poels, Landa , Nieve, Henao, Kiryenkia, Rowe, Kwaitotski

but there is also Stannard, Puccio , Nico ,Konig & Intxausti who would all get on another team

Brian?

I predict I'll be very excited about it and half way through the excitement will give way to the crushing inevitability of a 3rd Froome win.

neris

After a very enjoyable giro i hope the racing will be as good. The tour is very over hyped but below that hype can be dull boring controlled racing. I expect sky to be the total opposite to tneir recent giro and do their usual tdf skybot act.

Lusk_Doyle

neris wrote: »

I expect sky to be the total opposite to tneir recent giro and do their usual tdf skybot act.

A proven successful approach. Sadly for the excitement factor is does not deliver but tha's not their concern.

As a golfer once said "I'm here to write numbers on card, not paint pictures."

Melodeon

YAY!
Only a few weeks to go

For a general overview, here's the whole route (anti-clockwise this year):


Also, the Official Souvenir Pack Big-Box-O-Tour-Stuff is on its way:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/the-official-tour-de-france-guide-2016-is-available-to-pre-order-now/
You can get it online here:
Tour de France 2016 Premium Edition
Official Tour de France Guide 2016
My local newsagent usually gets a few of these in, so I'll pick one up there when they appear.

neris

at least when the tour is on theres the daily podcasts from itv and the cycling podcast to listen to in the car next day instead of the inane drivel of irish radio.

Ettix must have dan martin in their squad for the tour, be interesting to see if theres any other irish riders going to be lining up, sam bennett maybe as I dont think sky will take nico or deignan

MPFGLB

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

A proven successful approach. Sadly for the excitement factor is does not deliver but tha's not their concern.

As a golfer once said "I'm here to write numbers on card, not paint pictures."

I am not sure SKY will win this year ....surely Quintana has learnt his lesson and attacks earlier

SKY do need a plan B in Thomas, Landa, Poels or another so that Movistar have their hands full...only way to beat Quintana in the final week imo
Unless Contador beats him...Contador has the poorest team as per but I guess he is 3rd favourite

The real fight could be for 4th place !!!

Hope Dan Martin wins a stage early on as always tires in last week or gets sick and can drop from top 10

Lusk_Doyle

^or crashes.

Inquitus

MPFGLB wrote: »

I am not sure SKY will win this year ....surely Quintana has learnt his lesson and attacks earlier

SKY do need a plan B in Thomas, Landa, Poels or another so that Movistar have their hands full...only way to beat Quintana in the final week imo
Unless Contador beats him...Contador has the poorest team as per but I guess he is 3rd favourite

The real fight could be for 4th place !!!

Hope Dan Martin wins a stage early on as always tires in last week or gets sick and can drop from top 10

Quintana's best chance was last year, on last year's parcours, if Froome is on form and not impacted by fatherhood he will win this handy. Remember Froome was stronger than Quintana for at least 2-2.5 weeks of last years race.

Inquitus

Looking forward to the Dauphine, the opening MTT will tell us a lot!

Lusk_Doyle

I predict three stages wins for FDJ and Taylor Phinney to finally deliver something on the big stage with a top ten in the GC.

MPFGLB

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

I predict three stages wins for FDJ and Taylor Phinney to finally deliver something on the big stage with a top ten in the GC.

Some far out of the box predictions there

SKY team won it for Froome last year

Got him in the cross winds break , got him positioned on the cobbles and got the win in the TTT (Nicolas Roche was key in those 3 stages)

Thomas helped Froome alot and though Quintana had to come back from that deficit he was the best climber and but for Porte & Poels on the last 2 stages Froome could have lost...I guess you need some luck as Nibali at the Giro but Quintana has the beating of Froome who needs SKY to be on top form

MPFGLB

Secret Pro

http://cyclingtips.com/2016/06/the-secret-pro-nibali-the-giro-ditalia-and-the-importance-of-respect/

godtabh

MPFGLB wrote: »

Secret Pro

http://cyclingtips.com/2016/06/the-secret-pro-nibali-the-giro-ditalia-and-the-importance-of-respect/

Not a Nibali fan

Macy0161

neris wrote: »

at least when the tour is on theres the daily podcasts from itv and the cycling podcast to listen to in the car next day instead of the inane drivel of irish radio.

If you don't mind paying a sub, Velocast do daily shows for a lot of races. Plus (the somewhat irregular) This Week In Cycling History shows are excellent.

Raam

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

I predict three stages wins for FDJ and Taylor Phinney to finally deliver something on the big stage with a top ten in the GC.

Phinney a TDF GC rider? Nah.

bazermc

It isn't the tour with out my official programme pack

Picked it up in Easons Dublin today only about 6 left.

drogdub

Macy0161 wrote: »

If you don't mind paying a sub, Velocast do daily shows for a lot of races. Plus (the somewhat irregular) This Week In Cycling History shows are excellent.

SBS cycling central podcast is excellent too. The cycling podcasts are excellent. The kilometre 0 are excellent.

Lusk_Doyle

I'd love to have a subscription to, and some subtitles for, Dutch TV coverage of the tour. I watched it last year when in Italy and it was class. The post race shows in the evening, even with my very basic Dutch (which is my German!), I was able to grasp a good bit of what they were on about. WAAAAAY better than any ES post or indeed pre race coverage.

dastardly00

Thanks for the reminder, I got mine this morning!

I ended up getting Rouleur magazine's Tour de France special as well. It just looked too good to resist!

MPFGLB

Who does it say will win the Tour and why ??

bazermc

MPFGLB wrote: »

Who does it say will win the Tour and why ??

Well the magazine that I got is a British publication so it obviously says that froome will win. It also has mark cavendish on the front cover. Will he even be racing it?

Lusk_Doyle

bazermc wrote: »

Well the magazine that I got is a British publication so it obviously says that froome will win. It also has mark cavendish on the front cover. Will he even be racing it?

Prob not but he is their best known face and will sell magazines.

MPFGLB

Cavendish is riding the Tour ...why would he not as best prospect for stage wins for his team