A+A on Brexit - The Return of the Living Dead

silverharp

Akrasia wrote: »

Both of those countries are in Schengen. I doubt the leave voters would be too impressed if they leave the E.U. but join Schengen
I'm not sure why you brought up Canada, they're in NAFTA

they probably wont want to join Schengen but financially European countries and Britain are too financially tied into each other to burn bridges, they will sort out a deal that they can get on with.

seamus

Bristolscale7 wrote: »

Trump in Scotland spouting off on what a great day it is for the U.K. Important warning to Clinton and the democratic party to not **** up.

In Scotland, which has just said it's going to have another independence referendum because Scotland doesn't want to leave the EU no matter what the UK says.

He picks his moments, does Mr. Trump.

jackofalltrades

Nights like that make me feel very good about my decision not to trade currencies.
Thought it would be close, so didn't bother trading at all.

Already on Facebook I've seen people suggest both seriously and half-seriously that this vote could be ignored.
Others are saying it's a racist vote or posting articles that attack people that voted for a Brexit.
Real depressing to see people who only seem to be interested in democracy when it's their side that's winning.
Epic levels of sore losing going on here.

It's going to be a bumpy road ahead for the UK.
With David Cameron stepping down in a few months, wouldn't be surprised if Corbyn got the boot as well.
One side winning by a good margin would have been ideal.
Instead it's close to 50/50 which is going to make things very divisive.
Probably another referendum for Scotland as well.
It'll take a new kind of politics to heal the rifts, at a time when it looks like things have never been so polarised.
Hoping the EU sees this as the giant kick up the arse that it is.

robdonn

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Nights like that make me feel very good about my decision not to trade currencies.
Thought it would be close, so didn't bother trading at all.

Not great for me and my sterling...

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Already on Facebook I've seen people suggest both seriously and half-seriously that this vote could be ignored.

There is an official petition that this morning received more than the 100,000 signatures required to have it brought up in parliament. I think it's asking for a second referendum but with a 60% pass margin, although I'm not too sure. So many people are trying to sign it that it keeps crashing the site.

I don't think another referendum should be held. I voted remain. I just lost a considerate amount of money from the pound crashing. I think that leaving is a stupid decision but it's the decision that was made.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Hoping the EU sees this as the giant kick up the arse that it is.

I personally don't see this whole thing as the fault of the EU. The image of the EU destroying the greatness of Britain that once was is ridiculous. It's a "things were better back in my day" mentality that doesn't take into account that back in "their" day (vast majority of 'leave' support was from people over 50) there was no international competition from Russia, China, Southeast Asia or India and there was no internet. It's a far more competitive market now and while the quality of life in the western world is plateauing (not going down in any way, shape or form), it's rising in other nations.

recedite

seamus wrote: »

^^
The very fact that the referendum happened at all was a catalyst for change in the EU. Now that the UK will leave, it forces the EU to deal with the actual rather than the theoretical.

I'll believe it when I see it. What change did the threat of Brexit bring to the EU? The democratic deficit is worse than ever.
I see Frau Merkel has called meetings for the cabaals of her choosing.
Meanwhile Ireland, uninvited, awaits further orders.

..the German leader will meet French and Italian leaders in Berlin on Monday, joined by European Council president Donald Tusk.

...On Saturday morning, Germany will host a meeting of “founding EU” foreign ministers in Berlin ... German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will welcome his colleagues from France, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands outside Berlin.

As in 1940, the Brits have shown their indomitable spirit while the rest of Europe cow-tows to Berlin.
Like The Donald said; "Basically they have taken back their country".

Boris will be the biggest winner. He could just as easily have campaigned for the remain side; unlike Farage, he is not a committed eurosceptic.
But he stood to gain nothing from campaigning on the same side as Cameron, whether the Remain side won or lost. Now he looks a good bet to be the next PM. Its funny how the fate of millions can be influenced by one man's personal ambition. But I suppose that has always been the way, from Henry V111 to Christopher Columbus etc..

recedite

I did notice one tiny change in Cameron's language when he made his farewell speech. He referred to the UK going forward as a strong independent multi-racial society. As opposed to multi-cultural.
Make of that what you will.

robdonn

recedite wrote: »

Like The Donald said; "Basically they have taken back their country".

... in Scotland ... where they voted to remain ...

smacl

robdonn wrote: »

Not great for me and my sterling...

Look on the bright side, at least it wasn't shares in Barclays

It will be interesting to hear what messrs Farage and Johnson have to say about the 120 billion knocked of the FTSE including 50 billion off UK companies, and how exactly it is going to help the working class unemployed find jobs. It would be rather ironic if thousands of UK jobs were to move from London to Ireland and Germany as a direct result of brexit, and whether UK employees would opt to become immigrant economic workers as a result. And would they be welcome?

recedite wrote:

As in 1940, the Brits have shown their indomitable spirit while the rest of Europe cow-tows to Berlin.
Like The Donald said; "Basically they have taken back their country".

Hope they kept their WW2 ration books, because the way the stock market is going, their pension funds will just about get them a diet of spam and chips for the foreseeable future.

recedite

robdonn wrote: »

... in Scotland ... where they voted to remain ...

Nobody is stopping Scotland or N.Ireland from voting to leave the UK. So far neither has had the will or perhaps the confidence to do so.

jackofalltrades

smacl wrote: »

It will be interesting to hear what messrs Farage and Johnson have to say about the 120 billion knocked of the FTSE including 50 billion off UK companies....

I assuming you're talking about the FTSE 100 index, which finished up for the week.

Hope they kept their WW2 ration books, because the way the stock market is going, their pension funds will just about get them a diet of spam and chips for the foreseeable future.

Bit alarmist.

MrPudding

recedite wrote: »

Nobody is stopping Scotland or N.Ireland from voting to leave the UK. So far neither has had the will or perhaps the confidence to do so.

For Scotland, at least, that might very well change.

The thing that makes me slightly uncomfortable is that the affect of the result is way out of proportion to the margin of the victory.

MrP

recedite

MrPudding wrote: »

The thing that makes me slightly uncomfortable is that the affect of the result is way out of proportion to the margin of the victory.

That is often the way with a referendum.
But in this case, if the UK remains in the EFTA as seems most likely, the effects will be minimal. Neither side is going to very happy with that.
Also the eurocrats in Berlin will have to be allowed to throw their hissy fit and get over it, before any negotiations can start.

PopePalpatine

Oh look, Farage lied again.

smacl

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Bit alarmist.

Tongue in cheek. Just wondering whether the Dunkirk spirit among the grey vote possibly interfered with their consideration of the likely consequences for them of brexit.

I struggle to see any real upside in the brexit agreement for the UK other than having some control over immigration, but only time will tell. I spent a fair amount of time on the phone yesterday to clients and colleagues in the UK, and they're appalled and shocked at the result in equal measure. The notion that brexit will created jobs for semi-skilled workers due to less competition from exiting immigrant workers would appear to be utter rubbish, as it these jobs are likely to disappear altogether. If anything, it looks like the less well off parts of UK society will suffer the most as a result of this move.

recedite

Maybe its not just about the money.
The UK could have followed the example of Denmark and Norway in 1940, whose industries did quite well out of WW2.
Republic of Ireland would undoubtedly have been wealthier had it remained in the UK.

magicbastarder

robdonn wrote: »

There is an official petition that this morning received more than the 100,000 signatures required to have it brought up in parliament. I think it's asking for a second referendum but with a 60% pass margin, although I'm not too sure. So many people are trying to sign it that it keeps crashing the site.

it's kinda funny - it's one thing to request a second referendum as public sentiment may have changed, it's another thing to request one specifically so you can move the goalposts.

speaking of regrexiters - it's going to be easy to cherry pick footage of people saying they'd vote differently a second time around, so i've no idea how widespread that sentiment is.
but one thing i was mulling over last night (there was beer involved, so some sanity testing needed) - does FPTP influence the vote? obviously not directly in a referendum, but do british voters, on average, take their vote less seriously because they're more used to their vote not counting? case in point being UKIP getting a single MP on the back of about 10% of first preferences cast in the last election. the 'doesn't matter which bloody way i vote' is more relevant in the UK - and they've not had much practice at referendums to balance that attitude, this one being the second in 40 years.

recedite

In Ireland, when the public votes the "wrong" way in a referendum on the EU, they get told off by authoritative people and the referendum gets held again so that the "mistake" can be rectified.
Things are a bit different in the UK though.

magicbastarder

it's not the rerunning of a referendum on the likes of nice that i object to. it's the abject unwillingness to run one again on issues like divorce or abortion, etc., because 'we decided on this ten years ago'.

recedite

I object to both of the above.

This thread does throw up a few interesting cultural differences between Irish and British psyches. Like the several references here to some legal loophole that may, in some technical sense, allow the govt. to ignore the result of the referendum. That is the kind of pseudo-legalistic BS that does not even get considered across the water. Over there, engaging in sleeveen tactics would lose a politician his seat, whereas here you have cute hoors who are actually respected for being able to "get away with" more than anyone else. I'm not saying the Brits are immune to dishonesty, but their politicians will resign when found out, instead of just brazening it out.

Ire-exit would not happen because the Taoiseach having got elected on the basis of a promised referendum, would immediately put it on the long finger for a few decades.

If you told Irish people that they had lost sovereignty and decisions were being made for them by unaccountable bureaucrats in Berlin, they'd say "Great, I hope they make a better job of it than our lads".

If the Taoiseach held the referendum anyway, campaigned against the exit, and lost, then there is no way he would resign afterwards. He'd just say "feck it, I did me best".
Then a few weeks later, at the insistence of Berlin, we'd have the referendum again.

Still, give me a republic over a monarchy any day. The UK has always been ruled by a small elite from "the Home Counties". Its not really a meritocracy. The fact that Boris and Cameron were in the same class in school gives an idea of how narrow the real power base is. They may be gentlemen, but they belong to a club which is too small and exclusive for my liking.

magicbastarder

even if you only agree with 50% of what owen james writes in 'the establishment', it's still well worth a read.

Hotblack Desiato

recedite wrote: »

In Ireland, when the public votes the "wrong" way in a referendum on the EU, they get told off by authoritative people and the referendum gets held again so that the "mistake" can be rectified.
Things are a bit different in the UK though.

That's complete bollox and you know it.

Only a vote of Dail Eireann can bring about a referendum. If a majority of the Dail agrees, we can have a referendum, if they don't, we can't (however much we'd like one on the 8th, for instance.)

Also in both cases (yes, only two) we've had an EU referendum re-run, the question posed to the electorate was significantly different the second time.

Hotblack Desiato

recedite wrote: »

I'm not saying the Brits are immune to dishonesty

British politcs is fundamentally dishonest. Cameron is completely dishonest. Corbyn is completely dishonest. Johnson is completely dishonest. You don't need me to tell you that Farange is completely dishonest. Blair was completely dishonest.

PopePalpatine

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

British politcs is fundamentally dishonest. Cameron is completely dishonest. Corbyn is completely dishonest. Johnson is completely dishonest. You don't need me to tell you that Farange is completely dishonest. Blair was completely dishonest.

I've seen the term "post-factual democracy" being used in response to Brexit. No wonder Trump and his fanboys are thrilled.

Bristolscale7

I was sad to see the left relatively quiescent but regardless of the temerity of the left to 'own' an exit vote I'm glad the exit camp triumphed--my cup overfloweth with Schadenfreude. Go have a look at 3rd level EU funding for British Universities (spoiler: they've lost 16% of their research funding). And Scotland may get another crack at independent although who knows if they'll muster the balls for it this time around. Let the UK wallow in nostaligia for Empire and we'll see if the geordies are eager to take up all those low-skilled jobs. Meanwhile I can only hope the EU's undemocratic, neoliberal tendencies have been given a serious blow. I'm sure the French, Germans, and Benelux are happy enough to the see the UK go--they were piss-poor Europeans since they came in; the change will come not as a result of brexit but as a response by the EU institutions to become more democratic in order to prevent further dissolution. At least that is my hope.

recedite

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Only a vote of Dail Eireann can bring about a referendum.

I think there is also some rule about a citizens petition or a certain number of county councils. Anyway, there is no doubt that the Dail was entirely controlled by the govt. at those times (a majority govt. being in place) and the govt. in turn was being "leaned on" by the EU to ratify those treaties ASAP.

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Also in both cases (yes, only two) we've had an EU referendum re-run, the question posed to the electorate was significantly different the second time.

Well done you... if you could tell the difference.

magicbastarder

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

British politcs is fundamentally dishonest. Cameron is completely dishonest. Corbyn is completely dishonest. Johnson is completely dishonest. You don't need me to tell you that Farange is completely dishonest. Blair was completely dishonest.

I don't think corbyn deserves to be in that list. His sins are nowhere near the sins of the others. Primarily because he's not been near enough a position of real power, possibly.

recedite

Bristolscale7 wrote: »

Go have a look at 3rd level EU funding for British Universities (spoiler: they've lost 16% of their research funding).

Not hard to find, the latest published official EU figures (2014) say the UK will lose over €6.98 billion in EU funding.

In 2014 the UK received €6.98 billion in EU funding. Of this, €3.95 billion, or 57%, went on farm spending, which is above the EU average of 42%. Regional policy accounted for €1.72 billion (25%), well below the EU average of 42%. Research and development accounted for €1.02 billion (15%), more than double the EU average of 7%.

On the other hand, did you ever stop to wonder where the EU gets all this money from?
Further down the page the UK contribution to the EU budget is listed at €11.34 billion.
So it is the EU's budget that will experience the significant shortfall in future, and the UK can actually double all those grants without experiencing any extra cost to their state.

Also further down the page...

1. 25% of the total is retained as collection costs.

That is a ridiculous level of inefficiency, but not surprising when you consider that a lot of lucrative EU posts are given out as a reward to semi-retiring politicians, and the whole EU parliament is treated as some kind of very expensive junket by our elected MEPs

robindch

magicbastarder wrote: »

I don't think corbyn deserves to be in that list. His sins are nowhere near the sins of the others. Primarily because he's not been near enough a position of real power, possibly.

Possibly, though one comment I read yesterday seemed accurate enough - that Corbyn gives the impression that he'd get lost in his own bedroom.

As for the rest of the shower, well, I have to say John Major is, in retrospect, starting to look like a giant amongst his prime-ministerial peers.

recedite

robindch wrote: »

Possibly, though one comment I read yesterday seemed accurate enough - that Corbyn gives the impression that he'd get lost in his own bedroom.

Sums him up alright
John Major stands out alright, that is unless he's against a grey background.

Hotblack Desiato

recedite wrote: »

I think there is also some rule about a citizens petition or a certain number of county councils.

Sigh. No in both cases.

Well done you... if you could tell the difference.

IIRC Nice 2 had a guarantee on abortion (yay ) that wasn't there the first time around. Lisbon 2 we got to keep a commissioner (and guarantee that the commission remains bloated with several roles being non-jobs, but that's democracy for you.)

magicbastarder wrote: »

I don't think corbyn deserves to be in that list. His sins are nowhere near the sins of the others. Primarily because he's not been near enough a position of real power, possibly.

He's been anti-EU for over forty years, but pretended to half-heartedly like it during the Brexit referendum. Anyway it doesn't matter what position he takes on any issue, his MPs don't follow his lead and didn't want to be led by him in the first place.

recedite wrote: »

That is a ridiculous level of inefficiency, but not surprising when you consider that a lot of lucrative EU posts are given out as a reward to semi-retiring politicians, and the whole EU parliament is treated as some kind of very expensive junket by our elected MEPs

Sigh again.
The 25% of duties retained for collection costs is retained by the MEMBER STATES to cover the cost of collection of duties by the customs authorities of the MEMBER STATES.
But ignorance is no barrier to the expression of a prejudice.