Spanish General Election - The Re-Run!

An Ciarraioch

Didn't see any existing thread on it, and given the similarity to Irish political threads, it seems worth highlighting. You wìl recall that the first election was held just before Christmas, and ended in stalemate, with no combination of the four leading parties in a position to form a government. Negotiations continued until March, and at one point, it seemed likely that there would be a broad left government, but Catalonia proved the stumbling block. The parliament was then dissolved, and elections set for June 26th. A recap as to the leading parties:

Partido Popular: Centre-right conservatives, committed to national unity. Their leader, Mariano Rajoy, remains caretaker PM, but lacks potential coalition partners.

Socialists: Traditionally, the second major Spanish party, but have lost support due to economic policies and corruption scandals. As with Scottish Labour, opposition to a Catalan referendum has cost them votes in their traditional heartland.

Unidos Podemos: An AAA-PBP style electoral alliance between United Left (ex-Communists) and Podemos, who arose from a series of protests. Polls place them second, and they increase their support through regional coalitions.

Ciudadanos/Citizens: Centrist liberals standing on an anti-corruption platform, like PP are strongly unionist, but open to a coalition with the Socialists.

Ultimately, I suspect there will be a left-wing coalition, with a Catalan referendum the price of an overall majority, given the sizeable nationalist bloc likely to be elected.

An Ciarraioch

With the election on Sunday week, it seems clear that the result will be virtually identical, given the average seat predictions of:

PP: 112-120
Unidos Podemos: 85-90
Socialists: 81-85
Ciudadanos: 35-40

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2016