Brexit should we leave too??

Help!!!!

OK we have all heard the scaremongering of how the UK will lose entry to the single market if they leave but would they really?

A fifth of all German cars were sold in the UK last year
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4BB67JQOK

The UK buy a fair amount of French cars, wine & cheese etc

Surely Germany & France would try to come to some sort of agreement with importing/exporting goods with the UK.
The world has opened up over the last decade with Asia importing goods not just from the UK but also Ireland
So would it not benefit Ireland to also leave the EU if the UK does?
Would I be incorrect in saying that the majority of Ireland's exports are to the UK,USA & countries outside the EU?

Moo Moo Land

UK will vote to remain. A certainty.

Help!!!!

Moo Moo Land wrote: »

UK will vote to remain. A certainty.

But what if they don't?

Moo Moo Land

Help!!!! wrote: »

But what if they don't?

There is no what if.

Phoebas

Moo Moo Land wrote: »

There is no what if.

Of course, there is a what-if.
If you look at the polls, it's finely balanced. The Leave side are currently ahead.

fxotoole

Phoebas wrote: »

Of course, there is a what-if.
If you look at the polls, it's finely balanced. The Leave side are currently ahead.

That 12% "don't know" will tip the balance towards Remain in the final days and hours leading up to the vote.

Phoebas

fxotoole wrote: »

That 12% "don't know" will tip the balance towards Remain in the final days and hours leading up to the vote.

They may well do, but they're not called the 'don't knows' for nothing.

The result is far from a certainty as a previous poster said.

Moo Moo Land

Phoebas wrote: »

Of course, there is a what-if.
If you look at the polls it's finely balanced. The Leave side are currently ahead.

Not a hope. Even the people polled are scaremongering.
The UK will not risk potential economic impacts.
More chance of North Korea joining the EU.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

Moo Moo Land

jacksie66 wrote: »

Well they did land a man on the surface of the sun..

That was an Ali G interview with Buzz Aldrin?

whatstherush

Help!!!! wrote: »

OK we have all heard the scaremongering of how the UK will lose entry to the single market if they leave but would they really?

A fifth of all German cars were sold in the UK last year
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4BB67JQOK

The UK buy a fair amount of French cars, wine & cheese etc

This thing with German cars is unreal, like they have some massive stranglehold on how 27 countries are going to decide the post brexit trade deal.

Anyhoo Schaube burst this bubble today, “If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.”

Help!!!! wrote: »

Surely Germany & France would try to come to some sort of agreement with importing/exporting goods with the UK.

There will be, but Brexit UK doesn't want free movement of people and the single market regs, then no entry into single market ala Norway and Switzerland.

Help!!!! wrote: »

Would I be incorrect in saying that the majority of Ireland's exports are to the UK,USA & countries outside the EU?

You would be, it s about 50:50 between mainland europe and the rest of the world.

imitation

Germany and France already came to an agreement with the UK on trade, its called the EEA and by extension the EU. The UK is the one calling the whole thing into question. If they did leave there will be plenty of negotiation on what they stay in and what they stay out of.

The ironic thing is they will probably have negotiate with the EU just after causing a huge recession with there leave antics. Not a great starting point. Maybe it will be more tangible to the UK than the benefit they have recieved from the eu over the last 50 years.

As for Ireland, you might convice me the uk can go it alone, but for a small country heavily dependent on FDI leaving would be madness. Especially as we could have left at the start of the recession with some benefit, rather than leaving during the recovery.

Help!!!!

imitation wrote: »

As for Ireland, you might convice me the uk can go it alone, but for a small country heavily dependent on FDI leaving would be madness. Especially as we could have left at the start of the recession with some benefit, rather than leaving during the recovery.

With the current type of politicians that's in Ireland your probably right.:mad:

Sam Russell

Help!!!! wrote: »

OK we have all heard the scaremongering of how the UK will lose entry to the single market if they leave but would they really?

A fifth of all German cars were sold in the UK last year
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4BB67JQOK

The UK buy a fair amount of French cars, wine & cheese etc

The UK used to make cars themselves until they went bust. Austin and Morris had a huge share of the UK market, and they amalgamated to form BMC who made poor cars that would not sell and the workers would go on strike regularly, so they were amalgamated with Leyland to form BL which continued to produce rubbish cars and eventually went bust. Since 1994, there has been no UK owned volume car manufacturer. Nissan, Toyota, Peugot, BMW, and Honda manufacture cars in the UK - not sure how much added value there is though.

So if people in the UK want quality cars, they buy German and French ones. That will not change if they leave. However, the foreign manufacturers (they are all foreign) may reduce or cease their local manufacturing.

Moo Moo Land

I pray the polls keep trending towards a leave because there is no value in the Stay odds;

Using Oddschecker, the best value is 1/3. Majority are 3/10.

MRnotlob606

Moo Moo Land wrote: »

That was an Ali G interview with Buzz Aldrin?

O the a Waterford Whispers news article

Pro Hoc Vice

Help!!!! wrote: »

OK we have all heard the scaremongering of how the UK will lose entry to the single market if they leave but would they really?

A fifth of all German cars were sold in the UK last year
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4BB67JQOK

The UK buy a fair amount of French cars, wine & cheese etc

Surely Germany & France would try to come to some sort of agreement with importing/exporting goods with the UK.
The world has opened up over the last decade with Asia importing goods not just from the UK but also Ireland
So would it not benefit Ireland to also leave the EU if the UK does?
Would I be incorrect in saying that the majority of Ireland's exports are to the UK,USA & countries outside the EU?

So the Exit view is we want out but really keep the good stuff like free trade. Ask Switzerland how their 10 years of trying to do a deal ended. To answer that they have free trade yes plus free movement of people and services, they also contribute to EU budget they also have to impose EU law, they won't be happy with EU countries that allow UK to cherry pick neither will Norway or Iceland and countries in won't like it either. UK forgets it's will not be entering a deal with EU but every country in the EU I can see many countries saying thank **** ye gone goodbye.

Help!!!!

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

So the Exit view is we want out but really keep the good stuff like free trade. Ask Switzerland how their 10 years of trying to do a deal ended. To answer that they have free trade yes plus free movement of people and services, they also contribute to EU budget they also have to impose EU law, they won't be happy with EU countries that allow UK to cherry pick neither will Norway or Iceland and countries in won't like it either. UK forgets it's will not be entering a deal with EU but every country in the EU I can see many countries saying thank **** ye gone goodbye.

But it could also be the shake up the EU needs

Pro Hoc Vice

Help!!!! wrote: »

But it could also be the shake up the EU needs

OK point out what you think needs to be shaken up.

SEPT 23 1989

One terrorist attack on British fans in France and everything changes

Help!!!!

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

OK point out what you think needs to be shaken up.

Could start with this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10565686/The-farce-of-the-EU-travelling-circus.html


Imagine what could be done with the money wasted

Pro Hoc Vice

Help!!!! wrote: »

Could start with this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10565686/The-farce-of-the-EU-travelling-circus.html


Imagine what could be done with the money wasted

Requires a treaty change, but in any case that was part of what Ireland and UK both agreed to and both had Referendums on membership over 40 years ago. So if this is your biggest problem with EU we all ok.

K-9

imitation wrote: »

Germany and France already came to an agreement with the UK on trade, its called the EEA and by extension the EU. The UK is the one calling the whole thing into question. If they did leave there will be plenty of negotiation on what they stay in and what they stay out of.

The ironic thing is they will probably have negotiate with the EU just after causing a huge recession with there leave antics. Not a great starting point. Maybe it will be more tangible to the UK than the benefit they have recieved from the eu over the last 50 years.

As for Ireland, you might convice me the uk can go it alone, but for a small country heavily dependent on FDI leaving would be madness. Especially as we could have left at the start of the recession with some benefit, rather than leaving during the recovery.

Indeed. I'd read the IDA have been told to cool it for a while in looking for multinationals to come here, might look bad while the campaign is on. But if Brexit happens expect IDA to go after any business even hinting at leaving Britain aggressively.

Phoebas

One of the main arguments put forward by the Leave campaign is that they want to regain control of their immigration policy. Basically there are too many Poles and Lithuanians etc moving to Britain.

One of the consequences not discussed much here is that if that option is closed to the Central and Eastern Europeans, isn't there a good chance that increasing numbers of them will choose Ireland as an alternative?

oppenheimer1

Help!!!! wrote: »

OK we have all heard the scaremongering of how the UK will lose entry to the single market if they leave but would they really?

A fifth of all German cars were sold in the UK last year
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4BB67JQOK

The UK buy a fair amount of French cars, wine & cheese etc

Surely Germany & France would try to come to some sort of agreement with importing/exporting goods with the UK.
The world has opened up over the last decade with Asia importing goods not just from the UK but also Ireland
So would it not benefit Ireland to also leave the EU if the UK does?
Would I be incorrect in saying that the majority of Ireland's exports are to the UK,USA & countries outside the EU?

Ireland cannot leave. Continued EU membership was a condition written into the UK Loans to Ireland Act. If Ireland leaves, it will be considered to have defaulted on its loans.

After what we've been through, there is no chance of an Irish exit from the EU for the next 20 years.

BorneTobyWilde

What I find interesting is the fact the people of the UK get to vote on weather to leave or stay, but that decision effects other people too. It effects Ireland and other EU countries hugely. Seems a bit crazy to give so much power to the people. Their decision to leave will have massive repercussions for businesses and people here,and we are helpless to influence the outcome.They should of left it to the government to vote on it.

oppenheimer1

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

What I find interesting is the fact the people of the UK get to vote on weather to leave or stay, but that decision effects other people too. It effects Ireland and other EU countries hugely. Seems a bit crazy to give so much power to the people. Their decision to leave will have massive repercussions for businesses and people here,and we are helpless to influence the outcome.They should of left it to the government to vote on it.

It wasn't as if this was a treaty that required a referendum, this was the UK's decision to hold one. Ultimately the reason for it was David Cameron trying to stave off a surging UKIP who were primed to pick off a number of Tory seats. The referendum was also about trying to put the furthest right wing cohort of the Tory party back in their box and prevent a split in the party.

It was the same gamble Cameron took with Scotland - essentially wanting to put the question away for a generation. It worked out once, after squeaky bum time. So far, the second time around it looks like its getting away from him.

Brian?

Phoebas wrote: »

One of the main arguments put forward by the Leave campaign is that they want to regain control of their immigration policy. Basically there are too many Poles and Lithuanians etc moving to Britain.

One of the consequences not discussed much here is that if that option is closed to the Central and Eastern Europeans, isn't there a good chance that increasing numbers of them will choose Ireland as an alternative?

It's probably not discussed much here because it's not an issue. Economic migrants move where the jobs are.

Phoebas

Brian? wrote: »

It's probably not discussed much here because it's not an issue. Economic migrants move where the jobs are.

As a former economic migrant myself I can tell you that there are a number of factors involved.
Availability of jobs for sure, but also the relative strength of my own economy, language skills, support systems (e.g. are there people I know already there), access, cost of living, and so on.

With net EU migration into the UK running at about 185,000 last year, I think it would be foolish to dismiss a curtailment of this of having no consequence for their nearest (and similar in many regards) neighbour.

NewApproach

Moo Moo Land wrote: »

UK will vote to remain. A certainty.

Moo Moo Land wrote: »

There is no what if.

Moo Moo Land wrote: »

I pray the polls keep trending towards a leave because there is no value in the Stay odds;

Using Oddschecker, the best value is 1/3. Majority are 3/10.

Does not compute.

Seth Brundle

Sam Russell wrote: »

So if people in the UK want quality cars, they buy German and French ones. That will not change if they leave.

Just to clarify for the record, the French do not make quality cars!

Help!!!!

Phoebas wrote: »

One of the main arguments put forward by the Leave campaign is that they want to regain control of their immigration policy. Basically there are too many Poles and Lithuanians etc moving to Britain.

One of the consequences not discussed much here is that if that option is closed to the Central and Eastern Europeans, isn't there a good chance that increasing numbers of them will choose Ireland as an alternative?

Unfortunately there are many warehouses/factories around Ireland where the workers on the floor are only Eastern Europeans & the only ones getting jobs there are Eastern Europeans . Its not their fault as their only coming to work but the owners should not be allowed to let these things happen. The owners just want workers who will just work no matter the conditions

Sam Russell

Phoebas wrote: »

One of the main arguments put forward by the Leave campaign is that they want to regain control of their immigration policy. Basically there are too many Poles and Lithuanians etc moving to Britain.

There are more non-Europeans entering Britain the Europeans. About 50% of the Europeans are arriving with jobs already got. So even if they prevent all Europeans without jobs from entering, it will only reduce the numbers by 25% at max. However, many of those arriving have families (partners, children) that make up some of that 25% so probably there is little to gain.

If they wish the join the EEA, then the free movement requirement cancels all of this out.

Phoebas

Sam Russell wrote: »

There are more non-Europeans entering Britain the Europeans. About 50% of the Europeans are arriving with jobs already got. So even if they prevent all Europeans without jobs from entering, it will only reduce the numbers by 25% at max. However, many of those arriving have families (partners, children) that make up some of that 25% so probably there is little to gain.

If they wish the join the EEA, then the free movement requirement cancels all of this out.

Somehow I can't see them retaining free movement if you have a prearranged job. More likely an Australian style skills based system. Nor I can't see them joining the EEA as this completely undermines a major reason for them leaving.

Undoubtedly, the consequence of a brexit will be a big reduction in the numbers of undesirable EU nationals going to work in the EU. That can only have consequences for us.

Sam Russell

Phoebas wrote: »

Somehow I can't see them retaining free movement if you have a prearranged job. More likely an Australian style skills based system. Nor I can't see them joining the EEA as this completely undermines a major reason for them leaving.

Undoubtedly, the consequence of a brexit will be a big reduction in the numbers of undesirable EU nationals going to work in the EU. That can only have consequences for us.

I think they will have problems with the large number of undesirable EU nationals as many already have a British passport and are football supporters and are currently rioting in Marseilles.

Phoebas

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think they will have problems with the large number of undesirable EU nationals as many already have a British passport and are football supporters and are currently rioting in Marseilles.

At the risk of making a sweeping generalisation, its often members of that group who think that hard working Polish plumbers and the like are the undesirable ones.
Anyway - maybe for a different thread.

imitation

I don't think there is a higher percentage of eastern europeans who are undesirable. Its not really a fair statement at all.

People often complain about migrants taking jobs, but yet they forget these jobs are now being shunned by the local population. In the west we have pretty much demoted any unskilled job to minimum wage. At the same time we have pushed colege education for the majority, so nobody really wants these jobs.

If you bar the migrant workers, all that will happen is that instead of having productive migrant workers, you will have a smaller pool of local people, who are probably just looking for a filler job or are just not that great. Net result is the factory closes and moves to another country where the costs are lower. Now all of sudden theres no workers paying tax or vat and no business paying taxes.

Immigrants are always the easy target, rather than people understanding the whole thing is a lot more complex than "dey took our jerbs"

Sam Russell

imitation wrote: »

I don't think there is a higher percentage of eastern europeans who are undesirable. Its not really a fair statement at all.

My point was that there are plenty of undesirable natives in England (particularly) that who outdo any migrants in their undesirability.

imitation

Apologies Misread your posts.

Trompette

Sam Russell wrote: »

So if people in the UK want quality cars, they buy German and French ones. That will not change if they leave. However, the foreign manufacturers (they are all foreign) may reduce or cease their local manufacturing.

I don't understand why they may reduce or cease their local manufacturing, specially if as said in another thread pound is down 25%.
Quite the opposite.

Wanderer78

No need to leave, the eu is done if it can't be reformed. Our currency would be trashed if we left. Sit back and watch our leaders wreck it

BlitzKrieg

Wanderer78 wrote: »

No need to leave, the eu is done if it can't be reformed.

I've seen this so many times yet I've never seen anyone go into detail on that reform.

Or when they have they've been woefully uninformed how the EU works

Wanderer78

BlitzKrieg wrote:

I've seen this so many times yet I've never seen anyone go into detail on that reform.

BlitzKrieg wrote:

Or when they have they've been woefully uninformed how the EU works

Some believe that the eu is unreformable, hard to know if that is the case, but we must try or I think it will collapse. It's easy to see the uneven wealth distribution throughout the eu, this is unsustainable. We have to gain back some form of control over our own monetary systems or I think its doomed, that won't be easy.

BlitzKrieg

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Some believe that the eu is unreformable, hard to know if that is the case, but we must try or I think it will collapse.

The issue is it has gone through quite a few reforms and numerous elements of it have been changed. But for a lot of people those changes dont seem to register at all. They still make claims about issues that have been changed or outright removed since 2009 (such as unelected commission president, mep travel funds etc) Other issues that people accuse the EU of turn out to be national issues such as the accusations of corruption in the EU which yes there was such an issue...in 1999 which the parliament forced the commission resignation over. But the one funding irregularities reported by the audits have been constantly pointed to failures by national governments in handling funding the EU has provided them.

Which if you were the UK or Germany where more money is put into the EU and you find out that a chunk of that has been mis spent by a country like Poland or Greece I can undetstand the anger and demand for tighter controls, but on the flip side to that I dont think the EU should be dictating how funds handed to national governments should be spent beyond setting the general area (infastructure, media, agriculture.)

FURET

I'm conflicted about this, because I feel intensely European, so on some basic level I really want something like the EU to succeed.

My issue with the EU these days is not so much the Union itself, but some of its members. I abhor the tendency towards cultural suicide that one sees in Germany and Sweden; the constant pressure to raise certain taxes; and the sense that although national governments are technically empowered by the electorate to represent them at an EU level, drastic decisions such as the possible admission of Turkey are likely to be taken without the direct consent of the people.

I am also worried about the rise of the nativist right in certain counties due to their commitment to take their countries out of the euro. This makes the long-term stability of the currency doubtful. If the euro is going to fail, I'd rather it be disassembled in as structured a way as possible now rather than chaotically in the future.

In short, I'm concerned that the EU will go horribly wrong some day, either by decimating people's wealth and pensions in the event of a euro collapse, or by bringing about unstoppable and undesirable demographic and social change, or both.

seamus

FURET wrote: »

I am also worried about the rise of the nativist right in certain counties due to their commitment to take their countries out of the euro. This makes the long-term stability of the currency doubtful. If the euro is going to fail, I'd rather it be disassembled in as structured a way as possible now rather than chaotically in the future.

In short, I'm concerned that the EU will go horribly wrong some day, either by decimating people's wealth and pensions in the event of a euro collapse, or by bringing about unstoppable and undesirable demographic and social change, or both.

You do have to bear in mind that threats of exits or other regional heaves are to be expected in large union.

Even the US had a mass exit of 11 states nearly 90 years after it formed. Granted, it was during a civil war, but when you have a body that's relatively young like the EU, dissent is to be expected.

The US has had people calling for their state(s) to leave on a fairly constant basis. But it's of a size and maturity now that it doesn't affect people's confidence in the union as a whole.

The EU similarly is large enough that one or two leavers won't brnig the whole thing toppling down; the main issue here is maturity.

And that just takes time. In 20 or 30 years' time, most people who remember the establishment of the EU will be dead. For everyone else, being in the EU is then business as usual - being a member of the EU will be a part of their national identity rather than considering it some foreign influence.

The naysayers can be pretty safely ignored. They've been predicting the demise of the community since it was established, and they've been proven to be exactly wrong on a constant basis.

walshb

Cameron shouldn't be panicking. He can always refuse to accept the vote if it's to leave and keep sending them back to the vote, ala Ireland for Lisbon and Nice.

Jerichoholic

'Brexit'. Someone should be murdered for inventing that word.

seamus

walshb wrote: »

Cameron shouldn't be panicking. He can always refuse to accept the vote if it's to leave and keep sending them back to the vote, ala Ireland for Lisbon and Nice.

Yawn.

Cameron has already said that he will proceed immediately with negotiations to leave the EU if the Leave vote wins.

The obvious concern that both sides of the debate had were that people would vote "Leave", thinking that Cameron would go to the EU to come with a last-minute sweet deal if they stayed, or even go back for a deal with the threat of leaving, but with no intention of carrying it through.

Most likely what he will do (and should do) if the Leave campaign succeeds is to begin the exit process, and then step down and call a general election to let the brexiters deal with the absolute sh1t they've put the country in.

imitation

seamus wrote: »

Most likely what he will do (and should do) if the Leave campaign succeeds is to begin the exit process, and then step down and call a general election to let the brexiters deal with the absolute sh1t they've put the country in.

I dunno, he was a great man of the people come election time and was more than happy to say they should question the EU and have the referendum. If the will of the people is to leave then surely he should stay at the helm, it was all his doing after all. He would be a text book example on the dangers of selling out to populism at least.

323

Polls starting to reflect what i have been hearing from being over an back there all year.

Interesting timing with Switzerland withdrawing its application to join the EU, albeit 24 years after the referendum where their citizens rejected the idea of closer ties with the EU.