South Africa V Ireland, Second Test Build-up Thread

phog

Our S&S Club are doing a prediction quiz (it runs right up to 20th Sept) the 1st question is the winner of our 2nd test V SA. I had originally said Ireland would win tomorrow and lose the 3rd test, as the closing date is today I'm changing my prediction to Ireland lose tomorrow and win next week. That's not a reflection on the Irish team more that I'm expecting a backlash and I'm a tad concerned about the high altitude too.

thomond2006

I don't see an Ireland win but we'll learn a lot.

molloyjh

kuang1 wrote: »

What was their following game after Argentina beat them? Can't google it right now.
Edit: was it the return game IN Argentina which they won?

Yeah, although I didn't see that one so not sure of the performance. They won 12-26 so it may not have been a performance of note.

leakyboots

Being someone who wanted the tried & trusted shaken up for a while, I can't complain about a selection like that. If we, the Irish fans, don't quite know what to make of it, then the Saffers won't have a clue. Good to see fresh faces, hope they all go well

CMOTDibbler

leakyboots wrote: »

Being someone who wanted the tried & trusted shaken up for a while, I can't complain about a selection like that. If we, the Irish fans, don't quite know what to make of it, then the Saffers won't have a clue. Good to see fresh faces, hope they all go well

This.

It puts a lot of pressure on South Africa. If they view it as a second string team to rest players then the pressure is on them to win. If they see it otherwise, they won't know what to expect in terms of formation and playing style, so the pressure will still be on them.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

It must be stressful being involved in South African rugby. New coaching set up, new players, first international games since the WC, some senior players gone, and yet they're still expected to win straight away. Obviously losing to 14(13) man Ireland, already missing some big names is not a good look for any team but it really seems like a high pressure job. It's unlikely but I can't imagine the reaction if they lose all 3 tests.

Neil3030

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

It must be stressful being involved in South African rugby. New coaching set up, new players, first international games since the WC, some senior players gone, and yet they're still expected to win straight away. Obviously losing to 14(13) man Ireland, already missing some big names is not a good look for any team but it really seems like a high pressure job. It's unlikely but I can't imagine the reaction if they lose all 3 tests.

And on that note, and more generally speaking, you'd wonder how well the SH would do were the WC held in June.....

Adbrowne

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

It must be stressful being involved in South African rugby. New coaching set up, new players, first international games since the WC, some senior players gone, and yet they're still expected to win straight away. Obviously losing to 14(13) man Ireland, already missing some big names is not a good look for any team but it really seems like a high pressure job. It's unlikely but I can't imagine the reaction if they lose all 3 tests.

And dont forget the quota's

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Neil3030 wrote: »

And on that note, and more generally speaking, you'd wonder how well the SH would do were the WC held in June.....

I remember people discussing this around the WC and they were basically coming to the conclusion that there are positives and negatives to it for both hemispheres.

I would say that having genuine competitive test rugby in the run up to the WC is better than having "warm up" games where you're still trying to select your squad. I know they had a reduced rugby championship last season but the SH teams still had 3 proper tests not that long before the WC.

Adbrowne

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

I remember people discussing this around the WC and they were basically coming to the conclusion that there are positives and negatives to it for both hemispheres.

I would say that having genuine competitive test rugby in the run up to the WC is better than having "warm up" games where you're still trying to select your squad. I know they had a reduced rugby championship last season but the SH teams still had 3 proper tests not that long before the WC.

4 tests. Arg played SA home and away and NZ likewise against Australia

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Adbrowne wrote: »

And dont forget the quota's

Has there been any white players left out who would make the team better?

I haven't been watching any Super Rugby this season but I'm surprised by Kriel being on the bench last week and not in the 23 at all this week. No idea if that's a form thing or a quota thing though. I know the guy playing 13 has been having a great Super Rugby season but I don't recall him doing much of anything last week.

Neil3030

Just a few thoughts, in no specific order of importance or coherence:

- Part of me is now wondering if Coetzee will go for broke... The SA media began bawling for a reversion to type as soon as the match finished last week; I posted the post-match analysis on SA TV and in it you can see Nick Mallet setting the tone straight from the off, calling for more physical domination, more line-speed, more direct running <sigh>.

- We have always been a very smart team under Joe, and it particularly shows when we play France and South Africa - probably the least smart* of all the top teams. You have to imagine that we have a plan ready for any return of the prodigal Saffer bish-bosh: e.g., if Olding is at inside centre, you can be sure there are several reasons for this beyond giving him a run. If Gilroy is on the wing, this is to exploit space in more than one area of the pitch, etc.

- Although the intensity and physical element is all you can realistically expect a team to improve on in the space of a week, Coetzee is surely smart enough to know that (a) this Bok team cannot physically dominate us (pretty sure we have the heavier pack?) and (b) we will be ready for this, their most likely retaliation. So might he go for broke? Go harlem globetrotters on us? Not entirely sure how he does that in only a few more training sessions...

- One area I'm concerned about is the aerial game. Mvovo looked very good under the high ball last week, and with Payne and Gilroy now in our back 3, this could be an area they will attack.

*I obviously don't mean in terms of general IQ, but more in terms of teams sticking turgidly to a predictable stlye of play, or having absolutely no tactical preparation beyond 'roughing them up'.

sulberto

Neil3030 wrote: »

And on that note, and more generally speaking, you'd wonder how well the SH would do were the WC held in June.....

Was thinking about this earlier, and trying to remember back to the post world cup tours last time; don't the SH teams tend to build in world cup cycles so are generally weaker for a season or two while building experience and partnerships towards a world cup (new players will have about 20/30 caps by then). While the NH teams tend be more focused on the here and now results.

Neil3030

sulberto wrote: »

Was thinking about this earlier, and trying to remember back to the post world cup tours last time; don't the SH teams tend to build in world cup cycles so are generally weaker for a season or two while building experience and partnerships towards a world cup (new players will have about 20/30 caps by then). While the NH teams tend be more focused on the here and now results.

I think France claim to do something similar; don't the Top14 make certain allowances in World Cup years or something?

rsh118

Incredible selection by Schmidt. I'm most interested to see how Olding goes, he's a superb footballer and Schmidt is obviously looking for a second five rather than a centre as such. Marshall and Olding would be a great combo to have in the bag for one position.

Also, 1.25 says Olding is being groomed as the All-New Most Versatile Man in Ireland (tm).

Mr Tickle

rsh118 wrote: »

Incredible selection by Schmidt. I'm most interested to see how Olding goes, he's a superb footballer and Schmidt is obviously looking for a second five rather than a centre as such. Marshall and Olding would be a great combo to have in the bag for one position.

Also, 1.25 says Olding is being groomed as the All-New Most Versatile Man in Ireland (tm).

If we have a full back who can cover wing (zebo or TOH seem like the front runners) then he'll be an excellent option to have for the foreseeable future.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

rsh118 wrote: »

Also, 1.25 says Olding is being groomed as the All-New Most Versatile Man in Ireland (tm).

I'd rather see him groomed as the new 12, assuming it goes well for him on Saturday. That said I also have no objection to Marshall being the new permanent 12.

If Olding can be as good as we all think he can then it seems a shame to "waste" him on the bench but at the same time the prospect of having really exciting and game changing backs on the bench is quite a nice one.

I wouldn't want to be the one making these decisions.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

When they do the captain's run is the whole extended squad involved or just the match day 23?

former total

rsh118 wrote: »

Incredible selection by Schmidt. I'm most interested to see how Olding goes, he's a superb footballer and Schmidt is obviously looking for a second five rather than a centre as such. Marshall and Olding would be a great combo to have in the bag for one position.

Not sure I'd read that much into it tbh, Joe went from D'Arcy to Henshaw and even picked McCloskey in a 6N game this year, so a "footballing" 12 wouldn't seem to be a priority for him.

I'm also very excited to see Olding too though.

kuang1

former total wrote: »

Not sure I'd read that much into it tbh, Joe went from D'Arcy to Henshaw and even picked McCloskey in a 6N game this year, so a "footballing" 12 wouldn't seem to be a priority for him.

I'm also very excited to see Olding too though.

I was only thinking yesterday about McCloskey.
So near and yet so far now for him.
He must be delighted to see his team and teammates do so well, but part of him must have been thinking "ah Luke FFS!!!!" as (if) he watched last weeks game!

MJohnston

I'd call myself mostly uninterested in the result of this game*, and much more interested in seeing something new from the incoming replacements. It's a really exciting 23, something a lot of us have been anticipating since the end of the RWC, so I just want to see those lads play together, and some of the creative play that they're known for.

*I'd be disappointed with a massive defeat, and elated with another win, but otherwise, not too worried about the result.

Neil3030

Next up in my tables of comparison, is the battle of the beef. Having been burned by Wikipedia's charlatanry with the number of caps, I went to the official SA and Ire websites for these figures (side note, the SA website also lists players' marital status, you know, if that's what you're into).

Beastness index (kg): Beastnessindex (kg):
8 Vermeulen 108 110 Heaslip
7 Kolisi 98 111 Ruddock
6 Louw 114 121 Henderson
5 duToit 116 124 Roux
4 Etzebeth 117 124 Toner
3 Malherbe 122 119 Furlong
2 Strauss 114 105 Best
1 Mtawarira 115 118 McGrath

Total: 904 932


16 Mbonambi 106 101 Strauss
17 Nyakane 123 112 Kilcoyne
18 Redelinghuys 100 122 Bealham
19 Mostert 103 114 Ryan
20 Whiteley 97 105 Reidy

Total: 529 554

If these figures are to be believed, we actually have a significant edge in the weights of our packs.

(Obviously not going to include weights for the backs, as they are just there to look pretty.)

.ak

former total wrote: »

Not sure I'd read that much into it tbh, Joe went from D'Arcy to Henshaw and even picked McCloskey in a 6N game this year, so a "footballing" 12 wouldn't seem to be a priority for him.

I'm also very excited to see Olding too though.

True, but he has picked Olding at 12, and he picked Marshall at 12 last week, in both cases Henshaw who has test experience at 12 would've offered a bigger carrying threat.... He's clearly gone for better footballers at 12 for some reason... Presumably it's because they've done their homework and found a weakness there in the SA defence.

sydthebeat

http://www.vodacomrugby.co.za/class-of-irish/

hadnt seen this till now

kuang1

sydthebeat wrote: »

http://www.vodacomrugby.co.za/class-of-irish/

hadnt seen this till now

Powerful piece.

Annabella1

Think SA will be a different prospect on the high veld in front of a hostile crowd
It will go to a decider which probably explains some of the selections

Billysays no

I'm of the opinion that the team put out for tomorrow is not a second team. I see furlong as at least equal to ross and potentially better. I see roux as a physical player who will counter any SA physical battle. I see Henderson in the backrow as a positive. Then I see Olding as easily comparable to marshall and I see the inclusion of Gilroy gives an excitement dimension. So I, for once, can't raise many negatives and I see no reason why this team cannot beat SA.

MJohnston

Billysays no wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the team put out for tomorrow is not a second team. I see furlong as at least equal to ross and potentially better. I see roux as a physical player who will counter any SA physical battle. I see Henderson in the backrow as a positive. Then I see Olding as easily comparable to marshall and I see the inclusion of Gilroy gives an excitement dimension. So I, for once, can't raise many negatives and I see no reason why this team cannot beat SA.

Yeah, definitely agree with this - while last weeks team was top class impressive, this weekends could be even better. Of course, reality is that some bits will be better, others won't be as good, but still, its an exciting, *different* team, not a lesser one.

Buer

It's a team executed for a game plan. Huge pack. Almost 250kg of second row plus a 120kg second row at blindside and a 6'3" blindside at openside.

Whilst the big guys are quite mobile for their size, we're not going to be looking to play a game where we're flinging around the ball and moving our pack about. It's going to be set piece rugby, take points on offer and try to beat them up front whilst saving our legs in the thinner air.

bilston

Billysays no wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the team put out for tomorrow is not a second team. I see furlong as at least equal to ross and potentially better. I see roux as a physical player who will counter any SA physical battle. I see Henderson in the backrow as a positive. Then I see Olding as easily comparable to marshall and I see the inclusion of Gilroy gives an excitement dimension. So I, for once, can't raise many negatives and I see no reason why this team cannot beat SA.

It's an exciting squad and while I'm not sure they'll win (due to altitude and a Bok bounceback) it will hopefully be a really useful exercise.

When all is said and done we will come home from this tour with at least one victory and huge experience for guys who previously didn't have a lot.

We've Jackson and Marshall have breakthrough tests, we are seeing Henshaw, Murray, Toner and Payne become leaders right in front of our eyes and hopefully after tomorrow we will see Furlong give a good account of himself from the get go and we will have seen Roux and possibly O'Halloran and Reidy win their first caps.

Thinking about our depth next year it is very exciting

LH - McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne
TH - Ross, Furlong, Bealham, Moore
Hooker - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Lock - Toner, *Henderson, Dillane, Roux, Ryan
Back Row - O'Mahony, Stander, O'Brien, Van Der Flier, Henry, Murphy, Reidy, Heaslip
Scrum Half - Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Out Half - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre - Olding, Marshall, Henshaw, McCloskey
Wings - Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald, D.Kearney, Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Healy
Full Back - *Payne, Kearney, O'Halloran

That's 43 players and it's not including some young guys who aren't on tour like Ringrose, Adeoluken, Scholes (moving to Edinburgh probably puts him out of the picture), O'Donoghue and Conan

pickarooney

Any hookers coming through?

Adbrowne

pickarooney wrote: »

Any hookers coming through?

Scannell at Munster, Tracy at Leinster, McCartney qualifies next year i think at connacht

connachta

bilston wrote: »

Billysays no wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the team put out for tomorrow is not a second team. I see furlong as at least equal to ross and potentially better. I see roux as a physical player who will counter any SA physical battle. I see Henderson in the backrow as a positive. Then I see Olding as easily comparable to marshall and I see the inclusion of Gilroy gives an excitement dimension. So I, for once, can't raise many negatives and I see no reason why this team cannot beat SA.

It's an exciting squad and while I'm not sure they'll win (due to altitude and a Bok bounceback) it will hopefully be a really useful exercise.

When all is said and done we will come home from this tour with at least one victory and huge experience for guys who previously didn't have a lot.

We've Jackson and Marshall have breakthrough tests, we are seeing Henshaw, Murray, Toner and Payne become leaders right in front of our eyes and hopefully after tomorrow we will see Furlong give a good account of himself from the get go and we will have seen Roux and possibly O'Halloran and Reidy win their first caps.

Thinking about our depth next year it is very exciting

LH - McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne
TH - Ross, Furlong, Bealham, Moore
Hooker - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Lock - Toner, *Henderson, Dillane, Roux, Ryan
Back Row - O'Mahony, Stander, O'Brien, Van Der Flier, Henry, Murphy, Reidy, Heaslip
Scrum Half - Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Out Half - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre - Olding, Marshall, Henshaw, McCloskey
Wings - Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald, D.Kearney, Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Healy
Full Back - *Payne, Kearney, O'Halloran

That's 43 players and it's not including some young guys who aren't on tour like Ringrose, Adeoluken, Scholes (moving to Edinburgh probably puts him out of the picture), O'Donoghue and Conan

OH FFS! DENIS BUCKLEY!

connachta

Adbrowne wrote: »

McCartney qualifies next year i think at connacht

30th October 2018

FACECUTTR

Adbrowne wrote: »

Scannell at Munster, Tracy at Leinster, McCartney qualifies next year i think at connacht

Delahunt at Connacht is a beast. Few injuries this season but when fit he was bench behind McCartney or started.
16 stone 9 and 6'2" and he's just 22. Big future I think.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

bilston wrote: »

Thinking about our depth next year it is very exciting

LH - McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne
TH - Ross, Furlong, Bealham, Moore
Hooker - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Lock - Toner, *Henderson, Dillane, Roux, Ryan
Back Row - O'Mahony, Stander, O'Brien, Van Der Flier, Henry, Murphy, Reidy, Heaslip
Scrum Half - Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Out Half - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre - Olding, Marshall, Henshaw, McCloskey
Wings - Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald, D.Kearney, Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Healy
Full Back - *Payne, Kearney, O'Halloran

That's 43 players and it's not including some young guys who aren't on tour like Ringrose, Adeoluken, Scholes (moving to Edinburgh probably puts him out of the picture), O'Donoghue and Conan

You can probably take Moore and Madigan out of that list too.

Losty Dublin

Match thread up now

The Rape of Lucretia

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

You can probably take Moore and Madigan out of that list too.

I dont think you could. Neither will contend for 1st choice. But both are still part of strength in depth.
If there are injuries and they are needed, the IRFU will phone long distance.

Zzippy

connachta wrote: »

30th October 2018

2017

ClanofLams

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I dont think you could. Neither will contend for 1st choice. But both are still part of strength in depth.
If there are injuries and they are needed, the IRFU will phone long distance.

They're goners. Maybe Moore in a couple of years if he signs deal to come back but nope until then. IRFU will be thinking long term and they're not gonna sacrifice the only negotiating chip they have for two guys who have never been first choice internationals.

The Rape of Lucretia

ClanofLams wrote: »

They're goners. Maybe Moore in a couple of years if he signs deal to come back but nope until then. IRFU will be thinking long term and they're not gonna sacrifice the only negotiating chip they have for two guys who have never been first choice internationals.

Jonny is concussed, Paddy is injured. Who they gona call ? Keatley to start and wrestle with his crisis of confidence. And Marsh on the bench ? Or dial 0033... ?

bilston

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Thinking about our depth next year it is very exciting

LH - McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne
TH - Ross, Furlong, Bealham, Moore
Hooker - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Lock - Toner, *Henderson, Dillane, Roux, Ryan
Back Row - O'Mahony, Stander, O'Brien, Van Der Flier, Henry, Murphy, Reidy, Heaslip
Scrum Half - Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Out Half - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre - Olding, Marshall, Henshaw, McCloskey
Wings - Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald, D.Kearney, Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Healy
Full Back - *Payne, Kearney, O'Halloran

That's 43 players and it's not including some young guys who aren't on tour like Ringrose, Adeoluken, Scholes (moving to Edinburgh probably puts him out of the picture), O'Donoghue and Conan

You can probably take Moore and Madigan out of that list too.

We don't have loads of 10s or THs. Plus they're squad regulars.

We have loads of wingers and Scholes isn't in the squad.

bilston

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Thinking about our depth next year it is very exciting

LH - McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne
TH - Ross, Furlong, Bealham, Moore
Hooker - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Lock - Toner, *Henderson, Dillane, Roux, Ryan
Back Row - O'Mahony, Stander, O'Brien, Van Der Flier, Henry, Murphy, Reidy, Heaslip
Scrum Half - Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Out Half - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre - Olding, Marshall, Henshaw, McCloskey
Wings - Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald, D.Kearney, Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Healy
Full Back - *Payne, Kearney, O'Halloran

That's 43 players and it's not including some young guys who aren't on tour like Ringrose, Adeoluken, Scholes (moving to Edinburgh probably puts him out of the picture), O'Donoghue and Conan

You can probably take Moore and Madigan out of that list too.

We don't have loads of 10s or THs. Plus they're squad regulars.

We have loads of wingers and Scholes isn't in the squad.

Edit - Wee dark horse for the Irish squad this time next year is Bill Johnston. Munster don't have real quality at 10, having seen Johnston play last week, albeit at U20s level, he looks a talent. Is it that unrealistic to think he could be 1st choice at Munster by the end of next season? If that's the case and Sexton is with the Lions and Madigan isn't considered what odds Johnston could make the Irish tour? (Japan?). Watch this space I suppose, a lot can happen in 12 months, just ask Sean Reidy...

The Rape of Lucretia

bilston wrote: »

a lot can happen in 12 months, just ask Sean Reidy...

Sure can.

Before his SA call-up, I doubt even Sean Reidy had heard of Sean Reidy.

ClanofLams

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Jonny is concussed, Paddy is injured. Who they gona call ? Keatley to start and wrestle with his crisis of confidence. And Marsh on the bench ? Or dial 0033... ?

Players emerge. Nobody saw Bealham being an international th this season. Johnny Holland looks a very tidy prospect, to be honest one could have made a reasonable case for bringing him ahead of Madigan on this tour. Olding could probably cover 10 from the bench.

Ross Byrne is meant to be a serious prospect too.

Madigan & Moore won't be part of the squad.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

bilston wrote: »

Edit - Wee dark horse for the Irish squad this time next year is Bill Johnston. Munster don't have real quality at 10, having seen Johnston play last week, albeit at U20s level, he looks a talent. Is it that unrealistic to think he could be 1st choice at Munster by the end of next season? If that's the case and Sexton is with the Lions and Madigan isn't considered what odds Johnston could make the Irish tour? (Japan?). Watch this space I suppose, a lot can happen in 12 months, just ask Sean Reidy...

Ideal scenario is you have someone like Sexton who is in the later stages of his career, someone like Jackson who is coming into his prime, hopefully, and starts pushing Sexton for the starting spot and then someone like Johnston who is in and around both Sexton and Jackson for as long as possible before actually making a match day squad.

The fact that next summer's tour is to Japan and not somewhere like New Zealand it is the perfect opportunity to bring someone like Johnston along, assuming he has a good season at Munster.

Madigan could still be playing club rugby this time next year so he may not be available even if Schmidt, or whoever is in charge, wanted to bring him.

CMOTDibbler

ClanofLams wrote: »

Players emerge. Nobody saw Bealham being an international th this season. Johnny Holland looks a very tidy prospect, to be honest one could have made a reasonable case for bringing him ahead of Madigan on this tour. Olding could probably cover 10 from the bench.

Ross Byrne is meant to be a serious prospect too.

Madigan & Moore won't be part of the squad.

Madigan wasn't considered for this squad either until Jonny was injured.

former total

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

Madigan could still be playing club rugby this time next year so he may not be available even if Schmidt, or whoever is in charge, wanted to bring him.

Madigan has to be released for the international windows.

irishbucsfan

former total wrote: »

Madigan has to be released for the international windows.

Also the Top 14 don't play this late most years, and Bordeaux certainly don't

Buer

ClanofLams wrote:

Players emerge. Nobody saw Bealham being an international th this season. Johnny Holland looks a very tidy prospect, to be honest one could have made a reasonable case for bringing him ahead of Madigan on this tour. Olding could probably cover 10 from the bench.

If Holland continues on in the same manner he finished this season, I'd have him odds on to get a cap against Canada.

If he does that, there's a very strong chance he leapfrogs Madigan.