Political lanscape post Brexit

sink

So now we know, the UK is out. Already sterling has dropped over 10%, Nikkei dropped 8% and has suspended trading due to volatility, FTSE opens in a little under 3 hours and is going to plummet like a led zepplin. Economic turmoil is not the word. But I think that is nothing in comparison to the political earthquake that is about to hit the world. Scottish independence, Irish reunification, disintegration of the EU, opportunism by Putin.

What will Europe and the world look like in 12 months time?

Mycroft H

12 months time?

Not a huge amount globally other than perhaps an election precipitated by Cameron's likely resignation.

The UK will still be in the EU. Depending on how quick Parliament decides to enact article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

Lots of negotiations between Dublin and Downing St.

Scotland will be roaring for a second referendum and will probably exit this time. They'd probably look for EU membership.

As for the north? Business as usual for the time being. I can't see reunification anytime soon. Its still too fractured up there.

secman

Boris Johnson is suggesting 2020, whereas once UK make the declaration it would take 2 years under European exit rules. It will take 2 years anyways to unravel and decide which laws/ directives they decide to keep /dump.Will Cameron gives Boris the 2 fingers and resign , the leave leaders in conservative party have already handed a letter to Cameron pleading him to stay as leader. Talk about wanting cake and .....

Red Kev

Markets will settle over the next few days and slowly recover most of their losses by Christmas.

Once the practicalities of how the UK leaves and what trade deals are going to look like is settled then the UK will "leave".

Big business will make sure there's little real disruption in trade. The UK is too big of a market for them to drop. Note that when Schauble made his comments last week the German Industry and employers federations said the complete opposite and Schauble hasn't been seen since. The UK will get some sort of special treaty regarding trade.

In the long term they'll be back in 20-30 years.

Scotland will have another referendum possibly by 2019.

It won't affect a united Ireland in the slightest.

sink

One major problem seems to be that there are thousands of laws that will have to be reviewed. It will probably cost billions in legal fees and there is no way the Houses of parliament can vote on them in a reasonable timescale so it basically will have to give the government carte blanche to rewrite the laws of the UK.

Avatar MIA

I wouldn't bet against a 2ND referendum before they actually leave once ramifications set in.

And the bookies called it wrong :eek:. Some people will have made a killing.

sink

Red Kev wrote: »

Markets will settle over the next few days and slowly recover most of their losses by Christmas.

Once the practicalities of how the UK leaves and what trade deals are going to look like is settled then the UK will "leave".

Big business will make sure there's little real disruption in trade. The UK is too big of a market for them to drop. Note that when Schauble made his comments last week the German Industry and employers federations said the complete opposite and Schauble hasn't been seen since. The UK will get some sort of special treaty regarding trade.

In the long term they'll be back in 20-30 years.

Scotland will have another referendum possibly by 2019.

It won't affect a united Ireland in the slightest.

I would like your confidence,.Spain votes on Sunday, Unidos Podemos looks to be the second largest party, that is a massive swing to the hard left and another hung parliament. French and German elections are due in the next year, I wouldn't bet against the FN and AFD doing very well. Negotiating a British exit under that political climate will mean everyone will be playing hardball. Will parties in Europe really want to give their electorates reasons to take gambles on fringe parties?

Bit cynical

There will be a lot of debate in the UK on what type of exit the UK will seek. The UK establishment was overwhelmingly against Brexit and will therefore push for a Norway style relationship with the EU. Farage may not like it but he is not in power.

Wanderer78

People seriously need to mellow out. The sky hasn't fallen in just yet. This has the potential to be a great change for us all. Interesting times ahead

Manach

It has been one of the landmarks in recent political history. No matter what the impact on the UK, good or bad, it will give encouragement to other sceptical parties in the EU and make the more settled political classes vulnerable to challenge.

corny

sink wrote: »

So now we know, the UK is out. Already sterling has dropped over 10%, Nikkei dropped 8% and has suspended trading due to volatility, FTSE opens in a little under 3 hours and is going to plummet like a led zepplin. Economic turmoil is not the word. But I think that is nothing in comparison to the political earthquake that is about to hit the world. Scottish independence, Irish reunification, disintegration of the EU, opportunism by Putin.

What will Europe and the world look like in 12 months time?

What an over reaction.

The only consequence of this is that Britain will show the world life can go on just fine without the European Union.

dr.fuzzenstein

corny wrote: »

What an over reaction.

The only consequence of this is that Britain will show the world life can go on just fine without the European Union.

That is fine for a country that doesn't do massive agricultural and financial trade with the EU and can benefit from open borders. If they think this will continue exactly as before, they have another thing coming.

BoJack Horseman

It will be interesting to see if in the winter there is a new election...

On it's own merits Labour played a blinder in this referendum.
However, they are no longer the de-facto choice for white working class voters.

The voting intention polls by September, when this settles down, will be interesting.

Wanderer78

BoJack Horseman wrote:

On it's own merits Labour played a blinder in this referendum. However, they are no longer the de-facto choice for white working class voters.

I don't know what to think about Labour, they either played a blinder or were completely non-existent, time will tell I guess, but in saying that, I'd prefer them to lead England next rather than most of the other parties.

longshanks

One pudgy faced Etonian leaves and another takes his place. Viva la revolution.

BoJack Horseman

Wanderer78 wrote: »

they either played a blinder or were completely non-existent

I see the former because of the latter.

Corbyn could barely contain his joy on the radio this morning.
His career-long dream, of the UK outside the EU is now realised.....
All the while the Tories immolate.

And because he never really reconciled his personal beliefs with the party position he was able to remain beyond the mud-slinging.

Already Labour are positioning themselves as the:
We were on your side all along party.

Labour showed that it is far closer to the centre of gravity of the British public than other political parties. Jeremy is uniquely placed as a critical remainer. He understands why people voted to leave, he understood people’s criticisms of Europe – and is the only leader of a major party in Britain to whom that applies.

a volte face... but smart nonetheless.

Francie Barrett

Some of my thoughts.

1. Labour and the Conservatives will be forced to harden their stance on immigration. I expect benefit cuts, quotas and restrictions to be put in place. This will become policy for both Labour and the Conservatives.
2. Farage and UKIP to melt away. With the UK out of Europe, what is the point of UKIP? I think with Labour and the Conservatives being forced to harden their stance, the UKIP raison d'etre will go away.
3. Scotland almost surely gets a referendum, but will the fringe unionist voters decide that EU membership is worth abandoning the UK for? I wouldn't want to call it. Of all the UK regions, Scotland is clearly now completely polarized to England, and a separation from the UK looks to be a matter of time.
4. People have derided Wales, but I think they might actually benefit from a Brexit. Certainly, EU structural funds will dry up. But at the same time, dying Welsh industry will benefit from a weak pound, and the ability create tax breaks and incentives to entice investment. Will they have the vision to use the opportunity though?
5. I think Ireland will see some gains with some of the big City firms relocating some of their business to Dublin. Gerry's ridiculous proposal on a United Ireland won't even see the light of day, and I think agreements will be put in place to ensure an open border. For Northern Ireland though, I think the weak Sterling will be a boon to business.
6. As for wider Europe, I don't even want to speculate on who might be next to leave. If a Eurozone member leaves though, that could be it for the single currency.

sink

sink wrote: »

One major problem seems to be that there are thousands of laws that will have to be reviewed. It will probably cost billions in legal fees and there is no way the Houses of parliament can vote on them in a reasonable timescale so it basically will have to give the government carte blanche to rewrite the laws of the UK.

They aren't the first country in the world to leave a legal system, and nor will they be the last.

We officially did it in 1922, and we simply instituted a law that all laws previously enacted were to remain in force until repealed.

Britain will slowly repeal EU legislation, but some of it will probably still be on the books in 100 years time. They don't even have to worry about judicial review and constitutionality. Sometimes there are advantages to not having a written constitution.

Fratton Fred

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

They aren't the first country in the world to leave a legal system, and nor will they be the last.

We officially did it in 1922, and we simply instituted a law that all laws previously enacted were to remain in force until repealed.

Britain will slowly repeal EU legislation, but some of it will probably still be on the books in 100 years time. They don't even have to worry about judicial review and constitutionality. Sometimes there are advantages to not having a written constitution.

Britain doesn't "have" to do anything though.

EU legislation is just written in to English/Scottish law as required. That's why each European country has its own variation of the legislation, such as TUPE.

what it can do now, is to amend or repeal these acts as it sees fit. My betting though, is that not many will be.

micosoft

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Britain doesn't "have" to do anything though.

EU legislation is just written in to English/Scottish law as required. That's why each European country has its own variation of the legislation, such as TUPE.

what it can do now, is to amend or repeal these acts as it sees fit. My betting though, is that not many will be.

So the question becomes - does the UK implement future changes as Norway and Switzerland?

Bit cynical

Francie Barrett wrote: »

3. Scotland almost surely gets a referendum, but will the fringe unionist voters decide that EU membership is worth abandoning the UK for? I wouldn't want to call it. Of all the UK regions, Scotland is clearly now completely polarized to England, and a separation from the UK looks to be a matter of time.

Not sure about Scotland. They were only offered a referendum because Cameron thought he could win if Scotland were forced to decide between the status quo and full independence. The SNP wanted "devo max" rather than full independence but were forced to go along with the referendum when offered it.

I feel a bit sorry for voters there who thought their future in the EU was more secure if they stayed in the UK. Remember Barosso telling them that Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU if they left the UK and that this process would be very difficult, that they would have to join the end of the queue. Of course if they did leave now, the EU would bend over backwards to accommodate them.

But they made their decision to throw in their lot with the rest of the UK and this means abiding by decisions taken by the UK as a whole. I don't see the likes of Boris or whoever becomes PM granting them another referendum.

CMOTDibbler

Bit cynical wrote: »

Not sure about Scotland. They were only offered a referendum because Cameron thought he could win if Scotland were forced to decide between the status quo and full independence. The SNP wanted "devo max" rather than full independence but were forced to go along with the referendum when offered it.

I feel a bit sorry for voters there who thought their future in the EU was more secure if they stayed in the UK. Remember Barosso telling them that Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU if they left the UK and that this process would be very difficult, that they would have to join the end of the queue. Of course if they did leave now, the EU would bend over backwards to accommodate them.

But they made their decision to throw in their lot with the rest of the UK and this means abiding by decisions taken by the UK as a whole. I don't see the likes of Boris or whoever becomes PM granting them another referendum.

I got the impression that there is some get out clause that Nicola Sturgeon was referring to when she was talking about 'material change'. It sounded as though there was an automatic right to hold another referendum, but that's just my interpretation from what she was saying.

Edit: No, Westminster approval needed alright.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bit cynical wrote: »

I feel a bit sorry for voters there who thought their future in the EU was more secure if they stayed in the UK.

22 months ago

https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584

A Dub in Glasgo

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I got the impression that there is some get out clause that Nicola Sturgeon was referring to when she was talking about 'material change'. It sounded as though there was an automatic right to hold another referendum, but that's just my interpretation from what she was saying.

Edit: No, Westminster approval needed alright.

The SNP put that 'material change' in their manifesto for the May elections therefore with the support of pro-independence Green Party, the Scottish Parliament will now bring forward legislation to enable a referendum. You are right it is not legally binding and we could now be in a position that the Catalans found themselves in

Lemming

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The SNP put that 'material change' in their manifesto for the May elections therefore with the support of pro-independence Green Party, the Scottish Parliament will now bring forward legislation to enable a referendum. You are right it is not legally binding and we could now be in a position that the Catalans found themselves in

Would the SNP have it in themselves to cede unilaterally in that case in your estimation?

A Dub in Glasgo

I don't think so, you have to remember that the press and media is still wholeheartedly unionist in Scotland and any chance of success in another referendum will involve taking the No voters along without being 'I told you so'.

I think the SNP under the leadership of Jim Sillars would probably do such thing although they would not have the support the SNP currently has

BoJack Horseman

Another week, another plot against Steptoe Corbyn.

Hilary Benn was sacked & several shad-cab members will probably resign by tomorrow.

two observations:
- There have been shadow cabinet resignations before... it didn't make a blind bit of difference.
Jezza won't be going anywhere, while still unpopular with the PLP, their window has probably passed & he is if anything more popular than ever with the membership.

- It is delightful to see the two main parties rend their garments in public just because the plebs dared tick the wrong box.

hatrickpatrick

I'm hoping that this will galvanise support for independents, far left, far right, and small parties throughout Europe who have been advocating returning democracy to the citizenry over the last few years.

If there's one good thing to come out of this, it'll be the dismantling of the establishment and status quo. Maybe, for once, voters will actually be listened to for fear of another shock exit like this if Europe's citizens get more pissed off at the EU than they alredy are.

Instability at the moment generally means that political dynasties and arrogant, presumed-safe politicians, come crashing down. That can only be a good thing for democracy.

hatrickpatrick

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It is delightful to see the two main parties rend their garments in public just because the plebs dared tick the wrong box.

Out of curiosity, did you lean towards Remain or Leave in your own views on Brexit? This may be one of the only times I've wholeheartedly agreed with a post of yours, fancy a pint?

BoJack Horseman

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Out of curiosity, did you lean towards Remain or Leave in your own views on Brexit?

The dream what was the EU is not what it is becoming.

The unelected, unremovable triumvirate of presidents; Junker, Tusk & Shulz, lead by their pants-suited boss are not making a better Europe for Europeans.

Tony Benn put it better than I ever could

fancy a pint?

I'm afraid I'm already in a committed relationship! :pac:

hatrickpatrick

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The dream what was the EU is not what it is becoming.

The unelected, unremovable triumvirate of presidents; Junker, Tusk & Shulz, lead by their pants-suited boss are not making a better Europe for Europeans.

Tony Benn put it better than I ever could

Can't believe I haven't seen that graphic before. Your comment about what the EU was supposed to be hits home - I find it bizarre and frustrating that the EU lobby will only put people into two boxes, pro or anti EU. Apparently one cann't hold the opinion that elements of the original EU are a great idea and should be maintained, while more recent developments around the EU and what the EU actually is, are disastrous and should be rolled back.

I'm afraid I'm already in a committed relationship! :pac:

😪