UK Votes to leave EU

FrancieBrady

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Why are you angry?

If you can't figure it out carry on thinking I'm gleeful.

maryishere

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Why are you angry?

He knows the UK wil more than likely be correct in the medium to long term future, just as it was correct in keeping sterling. The EU has lost one of its main net contributors - what will Germany do now? How will it deal with the PIGS debt? ( Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal )? ...to say nothing of all the bad loan Germany made in Eastern Europe? Deutsche’s share price has plummeted to record lows, dropping by more than half since the end of last year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-debt-is-taking-a-beating-2016-09-27

Iwasfrozen

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you can't figure it out carry on thinking I'm gleeful.

I can't. That's why I'm asking.

Iwasfrozen

maryishere wrote: »

He knows the UK wil more than likely be correct in the medium to long term future, just as it was correct in keeping sterling. The EU has lost one of its main net contributors - what will Germany do now? How will it deal with the PIGS debt? ( Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal )? ...to say nothing of all the bad loan Germany made in Eastern Europe? Deutsche’s share price has plummeted to record lows, dropping by more than half since the end of last year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-debt-is-taking-a-beating-2016-09-27

Yeah I said this in another thread. I don't think it all happen but if the EU falls in the next twenty years the UK will be in a very strong position.

daithi7

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The effects of Brexit are being over blown. Gleefully in some quarters, I might add.

Ha,ha you're hilarious Muriel!!

BREXIT hasn't even happened yet and already the UK currency has already tanked by 14 % against a trade weighted basket of currencies, 20% against the dollaR, & is now at a 168 year low, property markets have completely floundered (commercial, industrial& residential), funds have not been able to meet redemption requests, inflation is kicking in in basic foodstuffs & consumer goods which will hurt the consumer, all foreign firms are prudently doing contingency planning with most putting all investments in the Uk on hold (e.g. Nissan , Toyota, etc, etc) & will probably seek to instead invest elsewhere in Europe (e.g. services firms in Ireland, Holland, etc, industrial firms in France, Germany, etc), even London's pre eminence as the biggest financial services centre in Europe is now under serious threat with May and the dumb conservative Tories posturing for a hard Brexit, cos they're worried Ukip will usurp them at the polls. Brexit, handled badly, as it is being already imho, has the potential to seriously diminish the UK economy over the medium to long term, certainly leading to a poorer, less progressive, more insular & isolated Uk, & perhaps even leading to a break up of the UK itself over the next 10 to 20 years say.

That's what you get when you look to bitter cretins like Nigel Garbage and Boris the bandwagoner for your immigration, trade and foreign policy. You lose badly, and become significantly poorer, and sadly so do all your close allies and trading partners like Ireland.(although to a lesser extent naturally)
So Bollox to Brexit, Boris and the bull ****ters!!!

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I still wouldn't have voted for Brexit though, I think the pain and set back is too high a price for something that will inevitably happen anyway.

I wouldn't have either. I'd say dissident Republicans are absolutely delighted with the outcome.

FrancieBrady

maryishere wrote: »

He knows the UK wil more than likely be correct in the medium to long term future, just as it was correct in keeping sterling. The EU has lost one of its main net contributors - what will Germany do now? How will it deal with the PIGS debt? ( Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal )? ...to say nothing of all the bad loan Germany made in Eastern Europe? Deutsche’s share price has plummeted to record lows, dropping by more than half since the end of last year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-debt-is-taking-a-beating-2016-09-27

You still have to explain how a double dip recession, austerity and rising employment was a benefit of keeping sterling.

Britain will be on their own, sterling will be even more vulnerable as we have seen and Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

For our sakes Britain has to survive, but all I am seeing is fantasy talk about the future. I don't think they will do well in the medium term and the long term only myopic Union fantasists can call. We could all live to see a world without a UK.

Zubeneschamali

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

if the EU falls in the next twenty years the UK will be in a very strong position.

If the EU fails in a million years, the Brexiters will say (from their caves) that they said it all along.

Junkyard Tom

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

In case 2, Brexit happens on paper, but the UK keeps all the regulations and pays the associated fees.

This is the most likely outcome and best for everyone imo. They just have to fool the more extreme end of the pro-Brexit spectrum of voters into believing everything has changed, which shouldn't be too hard.

Zubeneschamali

daithi7 wrote: »

Bollox to Brexit, Boris and the bull ****ters!!!

Steady on.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

This is the most likely outcome and best for everyone imo. They just have to fool the more extreme end of the pro-Brexit spectrum of voters into believing everything has changed, which shouldn't be too hard.

Do any islands of Brits in the south Atlantic need some landscaping done? The navy is a bit clapped out though

maryishere

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yeah I said this in another thread. I don't think it all happen but if the EU falls in the next twenty years the UK will be in a very strong position.

Unfortunately the EU will fail, for the same reason the old Soviet union failed. It started off ok ( the old EEC ) but has grown too big, for one thing. Germany will not be able to keep it all afloat, with agreement from 27 other countries. Remember the debt crises? It has not gone away, just the can kicked down the road.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

If the EU does survive it will harmonise tax rates / will not tolerate our governments attitudes to Apple and other multinationals, destroying our business model, and we may as well leave the EU too, according to economist Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/wolfgang-m%C3%BCnchau-ireland-may-have-to-consider-leaving-eu-1.2823535

As he says, Dublin has been resisting such a change, but with the UK out of the EU it will lose an ally in the fight against EU-imposed tax harmonisation. The Financial Times and Bild both can see the writing on the wall for us in Ireland.
No need to be in denial and blame "de Brits".

FrancieBrady

maryishere wrote: »

Unfortunately the EU will fail, for the same reason the old Soviet union failed. It started off ok ( the old EEC ) but has grown too big, for one thing. Germany will not be able to keep it all afloat, with agreement from 27 other countries. Remember the debt crises? It has not gone away, just the can kicked down the road.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

If the EU does survive it will harmonise tax rates / will not tolerate our governments attitudes to Apple and other multinationals, destroying our business model, and we may as well leave the EU too, according to economist Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/wolfgang-m%C3%BCnchau-ireland-may-have-to-consider-leaving-eu-1.2823535

As he says, Dublin has been resisting such a change, but with the UK out of the EU it will lose an ally in the fight against EU-imposed tax harmonisation. The Financial Times and Bild both can see the writing on the wall for us in Ireland.
No need to be in denial and blame "de Brits".

Is your point here that everything will be rosy if the EU fails? Because I don't know why you keep posting that.

Is the point of your posting here, that the only thing that is important is that the UK is right?

maryishere

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is your point here that everything will be rosy if the EU fails?

No, everything will not be rosy if / when the EU fails, but at least we can shelter behind the UK, as usual.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do any islands of Brits in the south Atlantic need some landscaping done? The navy is a bit clapped out though

If you want to get a job down there you would not be the first Irish person to want to go to a country with a commonwealth or British connection. Do you think our navy could make it that far?

1st dalkey dalkey

maryishere wrote: »

Unfortunately the EU will fail, for the same reason the old Soviet union failed. It started off ok ( the old EEC ) but has grown too big, for one thing. Germany will not be able to keep it all afloat, with agreement from 27 other countries. Remember the debt crises? It has not gone away, just the can kicked down the road.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

If the EU does survive it will harmonise tax rates / will not tolerate our governments attitudes to Apple and other multinationals, destroying our business model, and we may as well leave the EU too, according to economist Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/wolfgang-m%C3%BCnchau-ireland-may-have-to-consider-leaving-eu-1.2823535

As he says, Dublin has been resisting such a change, but with the UK out of the EU it will lose an ally in the fight against EU-imposed tax harmonisation. The Financial Times and Bild both can see the writing on the wall for us in Ireland.
No need to be in denial and blame "de Brits".

So, the EU will fail.............But if it doesn't, it will harmonise tax rates.
And if it doesn't harmonise tax rates? what then, Mary?

The EU will eventually fail, just as the Roman or British Empires eventually failed, all man-made things do. But I don't see it in the immediate future. When it didn't fail in the last 8 years, the biggest crash since the great depression, I expect it will last another while.

maryishere

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

When it (EU) didn't fail in the last 8 years, the biggest crash since the great depression, I expect it will last another while.

But now its historically second biggest contributor is leaving, bye bye.
You do realise the PIGS debt crises has not gone away?
You do realise it is only a matter of time before some of the EU countries default?
You do realise Deutsche Bank's (Germanys biggest bank) share price is more or less at a 30-year low?
You do realise a slump in German markets occurs as Germany’s second-biggest bank, Commerzbank, announces plans to cut 10,000 jobs?

Enzokk

maryishere wrote: »

I did or do not have a B+B or get a leader grant. What is beyond dispute are the many billions we got in this country from Germany anf the UK, like the 8 billion our then Taoiseach brought home from Edinburgh in 1992, as widely reported at the time (link given earlier ).

Perhaps if we were not so greedy or wasteful of EC funds then the likes of the UK would not have wanted to leave / stop contributing?

I don't remember this being a talking point in the referendum debate. What I do remember is taking back control of laws and immigration. So while you seem to have a fascination with this, it has nothing to do with Brexit.

If the UK is so upset with wasteful EU spending, maybe they would have stopped voting for UKIP MEPs that hardly do any work with the European Parliament yet still claim as much as they can. That is what the UK payments have been going to.

maryishere wrote: »

Unfortunately the EU will fail, for the same reason the old Soviet union failed. It started off ok ( the old EEC ) but has grown too big, for one thing. Germany will not be able to keep it all afloat, with agreement from 27 other countries. Remember the debt crises? It has not gone away, just the can kicked down the road.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

If the EU does survive it will harmonise tax rates / will not tolerate our governments attitudes to Apple and other multinationals, destroying our business model, and we may as well leave the EU too, according to economist Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/wolfgang-m%C3%BCnchau-ireland-may-have-to-consider-leaving-eu-1.2823535

As he says, Dublin has been resisting such a change, but with the UK out of the EU it will lose an ally in the fight against EU-imposed tax harmonisation. The Financial Times and Bild both can see the writing on the wall for us in Ireland.
No need to be in denial and blame "de Brits".

Actually the fact that the UK is out of the EU may just mean that the EU will have more chance of succeeding as you will not have a country that has a veto vote that will use it when the discussions are done regarding a closer union between the other EU countries. As you keep pointing out Ireland have been receiving huge benefits from the EU, we can't complain now if there will be some pain as we need to address a shift in policy to ensure the stability of the euro or the EU. We have made our bed, now we have to make the best of it.

If I may be as bold in a prediction as you seem to be, the chance is there for Ireland to pick up some of the trade that the UK will lose if they go with the hard brexit. We will be the one of the few English language countries left in the EU, and as you pointed out before we share so much with the British (laws based on British laws). So for a company from the US that needs to move their headquarters to a EU country, Ireland is there where the move is to another country that speaks the language and is only a short distance away from where they were.

Iwasfrozen

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do any islands of Brits in the south Atlantic need some landscaping done? The navy is a bit clapped out though

Is this in comparison to.the Irish navy?

You're in no position to mock Britain's blue water navy.

tomwaterford

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Is this in comparison to.the Irish navy?

You're in no position to mock Britain's blue water navy.

What ever did become of all those boats and ship building contracts they bribed the Scots at the independent referendum with???


Wouldn't have been a lie and quietly shelved??

FrancieBrady

maryishere wrote: »

But now its historically second biggest contributor is leaving, bye bye.
You do realise the PIGS debt crises has not gone away?
You do realise it is only a matter of time before some of the EU countries default?
You do realise Deutsche Bank's (Germanys biggest bank) share price is more or less at a 30-year low?
You do realise a slump in German markets occurs as Germany’s second-biggest bank, Commerzbank, announces plans to cut 10,000 jobs?

And with the UK gone their wealthy farmers and Mrs Winsdor no longer qualify for the nice wasteful bonuses they have been extracting nor are they in line for all the other subsidies they extract.
As the poster above says the EU will be missing the child that was half in half out and it is just as likely that it will now forge ahead.
So who knows....you certainly don't know what the future holds like you have no idea what the past held either.

The EU has been through many recessions and bigger probs. There are no signs of the final days yet. The UK however...

FrancieBrady

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Is this in comparison to.the Irish navy?

You're in no position to mock Britain's blue water navy.

It is mine and many others belief that the UK is not averse to overreacting/starting a war (witness WMD and The Malvinas) to distract their electorate.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do any islands of Brits in the south Atlantic need some landscaping done? The navy is a bit clapped out though

Comments like this always make me smile.

It's like a York City fan calling Man United crap.

Peregrinus

Except, arguably, the UK needs a navy that can defend the Falklands, but doesn't have one. Whereas the Republic of Ireland doesn't need a navy that can defend the Falklands, and doesn't have one.

If that's the case, it seems to me that the UK is in the stickier situation.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Comments like this always make me smile.

It's like a York City fan calling Man United crap.

You might have a point if I was making a comparison to any other navy. I wasn't.

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

Except, arguably, the UK needs a navy that can defend the Falklands, but doesn't have one. Whereas the Republic of Ireland doesn't need a navy that can defend the Falklands, and doesn't have one.

If that's the case, it seems to me that the UK is in the stickier situation.

defend the Falklands from whom?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote: »

defend the Falklands from whom?

The EU of course.

droidman123

Fratton Fred wrote: »

defend the Falklands from whom?

From their rightful owners maybe

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

defend the Falklands from whom?

From whoever may threaten it. It's happened before, after all.

I accept, of course, that in current political conditions an immediate threat is unlikely. But "current political conditions" are unlikely to persist indefinitely - they never do. And the UK acknowledges an obligation to defend the Falklands, which I think makes it reasonable to measure their military and naval capacity against the ability to do that.

It's all a bit irrelevant, of course, in a thread about Brexit. It's not as though Brexit is going to enhance or degrade their capacity to defend the Falklands in any material way.

Fratton Fred

droidman123 wrote: »

From their rightful owners maybe

Protect the Falklands from the people of the Falklands?

weird.

FrancieBrady

Hadn't realised the British navy was in such a state until Ii read up on it last night.

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

From whoever may threaten it. It's happened before, after all.

I accept, of course, that in current political conditions an immediate threat is unlikely. But "current political conditions" are unlikely to persist indefinitely - they never do. And the UK acknowledges an obligation to defend the Falklands, which I think makes it reasonable to measure their military and naval capacity against the ability to do that.

It's all a bit irrelevant, of course, in a thread about Brexit. It's not as though Brexit is going to enhance or degrade their capacity to defend the Falklands in any material way.

current political conditions in the South Atlantic might change, but Argentina's ability to invade the Falkland Islands is pretty much non existent. If they suddenly became wealthy (which would negate a lot of the reason for them to invade) they are still years away from having a force that could even threaten to existing presence in the Falklands.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Hadn't realised the British navy was in such a state until Ii read up on it last night.

yawn

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote: »

yawn

Boaty McBoatface will sort all that.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

yawn

Might bore you, but it is another area a Britain going it alone would feel duty bound to invest heavily in, if the money is there.

Ships frequently malfunctioning at sea and only 13 naval vessels capable of frontline action? Where did it all go wrong Horatio?

steddyeddy

There seems to be a major split in the UK between the 52% that vited leave and the 48% that voted stay. Tensions are rising with the brexiters shouting "we won get over it" to drown out the economic reality they face.

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Might bore you, but it is another area a Britain going it alone would feel duty bound to invest heavily in, if the money is there.

Ships frequently malfunctioning at sea and only 13 naval vessels capable of frontline action? Where did it all go wrong Horatio?

Yes, and if Trump gets in, the US will be too busy guarding against invasion by the United Nations to have any spare resources to help.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Might bore you, but it is another area a Britain going it alone would feel duty bound to invest heavily in, if the money is there.

Ships frequently malfunctioning at sea and only 13 naval vessels capable of frontline action? Where did it all go wrong Horatio?

it isn't going it alone, it is a member of NATO, regardless, when was the last time a ship saw "Frontline" action. despite what you republicans think, it is 2016, 1916.

As I said, it is like York City calling Man United crap.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't going it alone, it is a member of NATO, regardless, when was the last time a ship saw "Frontline" action. despite what you republicans think, it is 2016, 1916.

As I said, it is like York City calling Man United crap.

Except that some Brexiteers seem to prefer the way the world was in 1916 - or, even worse, think it still is.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

Except that some Brexiteers seem to prefer the way the world was in 1916 - or, even worse, think it still is.

that's nice for them, maybe they could bring back comely maidens dancing at the crossroads.

Which is another interesting point, after Brexit, i wonder if the UK will be as keen to take in the thousands of Irish women who travel to the UK every year for abortions, because the Irish government does not have the cajones to legislate responsibly for it, or if the RAF will still be doing the job the Irish air corp should be doing?

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't going it alone, it is a member of NATO, regardless, when was the last time a ship saw "Frontline" action. despite what you republicans think, it is 2016, 1916.

As I said, it is like York City calling Man United crap.

So you don't need frontline ships in the modern world?
Did anyone tell America, China, Russia and the French that?

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

that's nice for them, maybe they could bring back comely maidens dancing at the crossroads.

Which is another interesting point, after Brexit, i wonder if the UK will be as keen to take in the thousands of Irish women who travel to the UK every year for abortions, because the Irish government does not have the cajones to legislate responsibly for it, or if the RAF will still be doing the job the Irish air corp should be doing?

Full on Mary now in defence, because somebody has a few questions about the decline of the British Navy.

Those women could go to France or Germany Fred...Ryanair, ever hear of it? It's 2016 not 1916.

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't going it alone, it is a member of NATO . . .

Well, on a nitpick, NATO treaty obligations don't extend to helping the UK defend the Falklands. As we saw back in '82.

There is an issue here. As a relic of its imperial history, the UK has defence commitments all around the globe and, realistically, it doesn't have the capacity to meet those commitments if they were ever called upon. It relies instead on political and diplomatic work to defend the interests of its colonial possessions and their inhabitants and, where that isn't sufficient, it withdraws gracefully. As we saw in Hong Kong back in '97.

Honestly, that's a sensible strategy. Being realistic, it's probably the only feasible strategy open to them. And it's wholly irrelevant to Brexit.

Now, can we get back to Brexit?

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Which is another interesting point, after Brexit, i wonder if the UK will be as keen to take in the thousands of Irish women who travel to the UK every year for abortions, because the Irish government does not have the cajones to legislate responsibly for it, or if the RAF will still be doing the job the Irish air corp should be doing?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Those women could go to France or Germany Fred...Ryanair, ever hear of it? It's 2016 not 1916.

Neither France nor Germany has the UK's permissive abortion regime. In fact people come from both France and Germany to have abortions in the UK.

It's unlikely that Brexit will affect this. People already come from non-EU countries to have abortions in the UK, and there's no reason to think that they'll be unable to do so after Brexit.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

Neither France nor Germany has the UK's permissive abortion regime. In fact people come from both France and Germany to have abortions in the UK.

It's unlikely that Brexit will affect this. People already come from non-EU countries to have abortions in the UK, and there's no reason to think that they'll be unable to do so after Brexit.

Yes, I was too quick to riposte to Fred's 'look over there' deflection.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

And it's wholly irrelevant to Brexit.

I don't agree.
Brexit leaves Britain in a rather sticky quandary when it comes to defence too.

As previously mentioned, the United States, the driving force behind NATO, has issued a rather stern request to member states that they increase they maintain defense budgets that total at least two percent of their GDP. Such a call signals a growing American concern that the United States is becoming unwilling, or projects that it will at some point be unable, to serve as the bulwark for European defense. In light of a British withdrawal from the EU, which has allowed the UK to disperse a portion of its defense costs and burdens amongst its fellow member states, one wonders in the face of the ever-present threat of austerity cuts to essential domestic programs, if it would be able to maintain an adequate level of defense spending without membership in the EU.

http://intpolicydigest.org/2016/06/22/britain-s-military-legacy-and-the-impact-of-brexit-upon-british-defense-policy/

They have an awful lot of money to spend just to catch up nevermind maintain from what I am reading.

catbear

Well if the UK is struggling to defend itself we could lend it a few of our kites.

Everytime a russian plane gets close to our airspace we just send up our kite with "Welcome, ceol agus craic below" printed on it and they land for a session and then fly away a little more tipsy than when they landed.

The UK could print "need a Nissan, get them while they're going".

steddyeddy

John Wight, who campaigned against Scottish Independence prior to Brexit, now thinks that indepence would be the antidote to the disturbing politics of Brexit. Partitioning the UK seems extreme but maybe a divide would benefit Scotland.

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/12512554

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't agree.
Brexit leaves Britain in a rather sticky quandary when it comes to defence too.


http://intpolicydigest.org/2016/06/22/britain-s-military-legacy-and-the-impact-of-brexit-upon-british-defense-policy/

They have an awful lot of money to spend just to catch up nevermind maintain from what I am reading.

Britain is perfectly capable of meeting it's obligations, even more so when the carriers are commissioned.

Fratton Fred

catbear wrote: »

Well if the UK is struggling to defend itself we could lend it a few of our kites.

Everytime a russian plane gets close to our airspace we just send up our kite with "Welcome, ceol agus craic below" printed on it and they land for a session and then fly away a little more tipsy than when they landed.

The UK could print "need a Nissan, get them while they're going".

Kites? when did the Irish defence force become so well equipped?

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Kites? when did the Irish defence force become so well equipped?

Since I left the FCA